The Great Unraveling –
Thoughts on the Changing
Higher Education
Landscape

Howard Lurie / January
2014

University of Neb...
Howard Lurie
CS4Ed – Consulting Services for Education
howard.lurie@gmail.com
www.linkedin.com/in/howardlurie
THE GREAT UNRAVELING
 Emerging globalized business models
 Widening faultlines in income, access and
equity
 Rapid escalation of higher educ...
Core capacities
and functions of
established
institutions are
now diversified
distributed
&
differentiated

An Unbundling ...
M.P. Staton

An Unbundled University Experience
Steven Bell, http://lj.libraryjournal.com/2013/02/opinion/steven-bell/does-retention-matter-in-alt-higher-ed-from-the-bell...
How is
change
measured,
anticipated,
and
navigated?

US cities / states
organized by pop/ sq
miles
THREADS TO CONSIDER
Platform Wars or Deeper Learning?
Towards the Jetsons‟ Classroom?
Actionable Learning Analytics or Just a Cluttered
Dashboard?
Reinventing Instructional Design and Course Production
PLATFORM
LMS Market Share, 1997 - 2013
edX: “We‟ve Flipped the Funnel”
7,157
Certified

8,240
Took the Final

9,318
Passed the Mid-Term
10,547
Made it the Mid-Te...
Gartner Hype Cycle
LMS Market share, 2013
George Kroner – The MOOC LMS Map
Next Wave LMS
• Simple course delivery  “learning
experiences”
• Single course experience  differentiated
pathways for a...
Canvas – Network, MOOC, LMS, All or
None?
Questions to Consider in LMS Determination
•
•
•
•

What is the adoption strategy? Single, multiple, or local?
What is the...
ELROY JETSON @
SCHOOL
“2000” circa 1910
Tomorrow’s schools will be more crowded; teachers will be correspondingly
fewer. Teaching would be by means of sound movie...
Circa 1968
Click to Start or Just Minimize to the
Desktop?
Flipped and Blended Classrooms
Candace Thille, Schools of Tomorrow, 9/17/13

That‟s what I‟ve spent the last 10 years of my
life doing. One thing we foun...
Questions to Consider for Blended
Learning
• What are the support systems and
training resources for faculty and
productio...
Blended Learning Flavors of the Week
More than Rocket Science…
• Investigate the “learning engineers” framework

• Anticipate faculty development and support; ...
BIG DATA OR JUST BIG
DASHBOARDS?
Next Generation of Data Visualization

http://hint.fm/projects/wind/

Hint.fm http://hint.fm/projects/wind/
Unbundled Schools – Implications
Phototrails.net
Studying
Learning in the
Worldwide
Classroom;
Research into
edX‟s First
MOOC

Research and Practice in Assessment, Summer ...
How does learner activity correlate to performance?
Online
textbook

Videos

Assessments

Courtesy Seaton, Pritchard Aug 2...
154k  108k “participants” in total time

spent
Time/Week per Activity 
Weekly time spent per activity
Arrow thickness ~ #
accesses
Resource area ~ time spent

What did “learners” use to learn?

Pritchard http://RELATE.MIT.ed
Possible “universals”:
• Weekends rule
• Global Procrastination
Rey Junco….

“Generally, what you see is learning analytics applied to
course management systems and course management
sys...
Considerations for Predictive
Learning Analytics
• Design and build an
integrated analytics
framework which includes
recru...
Acrobatiq – 2014 Saas / API Based Product
REINVENTING INSTRUCTIONAL DESIGN AND COURSE
PRODUCTION
Roots of Instructional Design – “Land” based
teaching
Transitions towards a New Model of Instructional Design
Course as product  backward planning learning as
process
Singular...
Componetized, Modularized, Super-Sized
UN Medical Center
UN Medical Center
UN Medical Center
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  • Thanks for opportunity VICE Chancellor DaviesProfessors Howard Liu Brief bio / personal trajectory Dialogue
  • Unbundling Disaggregation Results of convergence of financial, demographic, technological, etc forces Recently referenced A Path Forward Game-Changing Reforms in Higher Education and the Implications for Business and Financing Models David Bergenron, Center for American Progress 1965 – Higher Education Act – Lyndon Johnson enshrined 30 week academic calendarGEDFinancial Aid formulasAcademic workload on 12 credit scale MP Staton among others, writing about current shift away from bundled, woven, systems
  • Forces driving disaggregation Globalized biz models – need for creating creators ( Friedman)Supply chains shift; production; design not to fill existing job but to create new ones Widening diversity in choice – where and how to be credentialedInequity US, the share of households earning middle-class income has declined from 50 per cent in 1970to 42 per cent in 2010. Youth un and under emoloymentCosts – cost out pacing returns 2000/01 and 2010/11, prices for undergraduate tuition, room and board at public institutions rose 42%, and prices at private, not-for-profit institutions rose 31% after adjustment for inflation the average earnings for US students with a bachelors degree fell 14.7 per cent between 2000 and 2012 despite a 72 per cent increase in cost.
  • Traditional, established, proven, roles of universities are not disappearing, but are migrating away from centralized institutional control Learner / consumer driven (akin to music, social relations, shopping etc)
  • Now migrating to differentiated, untested, unsupported , but ubiquitous the lack of clear pathways for students to take them through postsecondary education to a career. New models Stackable credentials – Complete College America Competency based credentialing Also driven by employer demands But employers also consistently identify a set of key skills or competencies such as critical thinkingcomplex problem solvingwritten and oral communicationapplied knowledge in real-world settings that do not necessarily align with a specific major
  • Things that thought looked a certain way, are now different both in appearance and in experience.
  • Given the unraveling / disaggregation, a way forward can be developed by examining several core threads / trends which overlap institutions and provide beginnings of an agenda Platforms – Delivery Classrooms – Teaching Analytics- ResearchDesign – Design
  • Will the current proliferation and adaption of new LMS platforms lead to deeper and sustained learning? Or As a consumer / developer of systems, what should be considered?
  • Where is teaching and learning in all of this? Robot classrooms? What is the new classroom? Teacher? Student? Is it a simple flip?
  • We are data crazedBig Data dominated from ….. to Edward Snowden. What is educational big data? How will it harvested, used? Can we see the road through our dashboard? My Austin texas cab driver
  • Are our existing ID models adequate to the task? Have our toolsets, platforms, and systems outpaced our ability to create and deliver a compelling, sticky learning experience? Are we wedded to land based design, when we need screen based definitions?
  • And as we understand the unraveling, what is the path forward? Where are the opportunities?
  • Platform
  • Increasing differentiationLegacy systems – Bb. D2L, MoodleArrival of Open Source Arrival of MOOC, assessment driven platforms SaaS concept
  • MOOC ecosystem circa 2012 – 2013 – rapid growth, investment, attention
  • Edx claim to fameWas this about teaching / learning? Software as a Service? Marketing / branding?
  • Gartner hype cycle Classic tech trigger – where would MOOCs and related tech triggers be? What has been learned?
  • Despite emergence and hype of MOOCs, LMS market share still somewhat predictable Skewed by regionOncoming of Canvas, open source, product and UX driven
  • Another view – George Kroner, U Maryland
  • Out of this, unavoidable and expected shifts Away from singular product definition and deployment, and towards more nuanced, user experience driven matrix Much heralded and of the LMS is premature. CANVAS enterprise-level, open source and cloud-native LMS that doesn’t take six months to integrate, avoids Flash, while offering mobile support, analytics, integration with popular apps, speed grading, a “guaranteed uptime Service Agreement,” hands-free updates and giving developers a set of APIs and scalable server capacity — for in-person and online courses.Canvas Network
  • Considerations # of MOOC partner institutions divided by their LMS of choiceLearning Technologies Interoperability – IMS Global Learning Analytics Long/ SiemansMassive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), which occur in decentralized, distributed teaching and learning networks, offer another challenge. Online social media monitoring tools (e.g., Radian6) and reputation or influence monitoring tools (e.g., Klout) may provide educators with a model for analytics in such networks, in which activity is distributed across multiple sites and multiple identities.
  • The challenge of improving the classroom We’ve all been there, so we’re all experts. What if…… Popular conceptions of the future of teaching, but from the past 1910 – Meat Grinder Classroom Passive, centralized, equal (within), measurable, reliable
  • 1958 Flipped Classroom Mechanical tabulations“gearing” , advance based on abilities – sounds like personalized learning Machine driven attendance
  • 1968 Compressed speech Speed and ‘BETTER’
  • 2012 – New coin of the realm is the flipped classroom or blended learning. Important to recall that the concept derived from CO hs teachers and not Kahn, remains largely untested. Reduce costsImprove retention? Lower attrition?
  • Discussion has been going on for some time BEFORE Kahn Academy
  • Add CT notes OLI / Stanford
  • Popular You tube channel – will it blend? Absolute requirement to assess and plan for faculty development and support in any flipped or blended effortIdentify instructional goals alongside operational goalsAnticipate hidden costs of production, deployment, researchIdentify core research agenda. Why do this?
  • Several models to considerFixed factors – devices etcOpen factorsaccountability and cheating Credentialing and certification; credit optionsInvestment and price points; credit hour costs? Gains in f2f time. Costs for applied learning labs or studios?
  • Data minefield PrivacyBusiness models - freemium to premium; who controls access? Whose Data? Is the end game the development of solutions to reinvent education or are there other goals to be met? Can personalized learning inform graduate and professional education? Are competency models viable?
  • Hurricane Sandy A revolution in data collection AND representation. Concept that source content is always fluid, Google Earth in constant update model; your Pandora station constantly changing; accelerated by dominance of cloud based computing. Not a document but an interaction; a software performance. Lev Manovich – Algorithms of Our Lives State of permanent change Welcome to the world of permanent change – a world defined not by heavy industrial machines that are modified infrequently but by software that is always in fluxNew LMS platforms are, by design, mutli-tier software, API packagesGoogle: Data Game Changers: SpeedSizeSensors
  • Data is now also about SCALEAnd learning data is ripe for a revolution Enlargement of Instagram project – each tile as an instagram user
  • Phototrails project, comparing Instagram usage by Tokyo, New York, Bangkok and San Francisco Software app used the same; results showing generally consistent patterns of use across cities, but with some hue differences
  • Siemans / LongAccording to the 1st International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge, “learning analytics is the measurement, collection, analysis and reporting of data about learners and their contexts, for purposes of understanding and optimising learning and the environments in which it occurs.”11 “Analytics marries large data sets, statistical techniques, and predictive modeling. It could be thought of as the practice of mining institutional data to produce ‘actionable intelligence.’”12
  • Context of most recent ID deployments stems from traditional, land based learning theory. Not invalid, but needs significant adjustment to screen based learning environments. Even more pronounced by new Machine Learning and AI systems, abilities to create learning environments based on sophisticated software algorithms
  • Emphasize an evolving discipline – Need for new model of ID which incorporates cognitive science, learning theory, machine learning software toolsNeed for production and design models based on data driven, team iterations – plan, deploy, gather, iterate – evolving cycles. AGILE Opportunities to reference growing sophistication of learning analytics – towards a predictive, and personalized design. One size need not fit all
  • UN Medical Center

    1. 1. The Great Unraveling – Thoughts on the Changing Higher Education Landscape Howard Lurie / January 2014 University of Nebraska Medical Center / January 13 – 14, 20
    2. 2. Howard Lurie CS4Ed – Consulting Services for Education howard.lurie@gmail.com www.linkedin.com/in/howardlurie
    3. 3. THE GREAT UNRAVELING
    4. 4.  Emerging globalized business models  Widening faultlines in income, access and equity  Rapid escalation of higher education costs  Persistent decline in value of undergraduate and graduate degrees  Unfettered access to ubiquitous content  The city on a hill has company; increased competition Forces Driving Disaggregation // Unbundling // Unraveling
    5. 5. Core capacities and functions of established institutions are now diversified distributed & differentiated An Unbundling Framework M.P. Staton
    6. 6. M.P. Staton An Unbundled University Experience
    7. 7. Steven Bell, http://lj.libraryjournal.com/2013/02/opinion/steven-bell/does-retention-matter-in-alt-higher-ed-from-the-bell-tower/ Shifts Away from Predictable, Single Pathways
    8. 8. How is change measured, anticipated, and navigated? US cities / states organized by pop/ sq miles
    9. 9. THREADS TO CONSIDER
    10. 10. Platform Wars or Deeper Learning?
    11. 11. Towards the Jetsons‟ Classroom?
    12. 12. Actionable Learning Analytics or Just a Cluttered Dashboard?
    13. 13. Reinventing Instructional Design and Course Production
    14. 14. PLATFORM
    15. 15. LMS Market Share, 1997 - 2013
    16. 16. edX: “We‟ve Flipped the Funnel” 7,157 Certified 8,240 Took the Final 9,318 Passed the Mid-Term 10,547 Made it the Mid-Term 26, 349 Tried the First Problem Set 154,763 Registered for 6.002x: Circuits and Electronics Same staff resources as 150 person on-campus
    17. 17. Gartner Hype Cycle
    18. 18. LMS Market share, 2013
    19. 19. George Kroner – The MOOC LMS Map
    20. 20. Next Wave LMS • Simple course delivery  “learning experiences” • Single course experience  differentiated pathways for acceleration or remediation • Click through data  predictive learner analytics, consumable by both student and instructor • Digital content repositories  stackable content available across platforms and providers • Departmentalized courses  evolving and practicum focused learning communities • Course in a box  mutli platform and device integration Next Wave LMS Progressions
    21. 21. Canvas – Network, MOOC, LMS, All or None?
    22. 22. Questions to Consider in LMS Determination • • • • What is the adoption strategy? Single, multiple, or local? What is the desired level of interoperability? LTI friendly? Open? Closed Open? Open Open? Closed Closed? How will courses be developed, and by whom? Support models? • How will core instructional goals be met by an LMS or set of LMSs? Door Number One, Two, Three, or None?
    23. 23. ELROY JETSON @ SCHOOL
    24. 24. “2000” circa 1910
    25. 25. Tomorrow’s schools will be more crowded; teachers will be correspondingly fewer. Teaching would be by means of sound movies and mechanical tabulating machines. Pupils would record attendance and answer questions by pushing buttons. Special machines would be “geared” for each individual student so he could advance as rapidly as his abilities warranted. Progress records, also kept by machine, would be periodically reviewed by skilled teachers, and personal help would be available when necessary. http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-jetsons-get-schooled-robot-
    26. 26. Circa 1968
    27. 27. Click to Start or Just Minimize to the Desktop?
    28. 28. Flipped and Blended Classrooms
    29. 29. Candace Thille, Schools of Tomorrow, 9/17/13 That‟s what I‟ve spent the last 10 years of my life doing. One thing we found is that learning is really complex… Once a colleague asked me, „why do you study learning? We all teach, it‟s not rocket science.‟ Well, actually it’s more complex than rocket science. Really understanding human learning at that episodic moment where you have change in thought is a complex process Thille - More complex than rocket science…
    30. 30. Questions to Consider for Blended Learning • What are the support systems and training resources for faculty and production units to create and deliver blended course content? • What is the blended learning research agenda? How will data be collected and analyzed? How will data inform the course development roadmap? • What will be the associated business requirements? Credit hours? Faculty compensation? Activity or platform fees? Certificate fees? Will it Blend?
    31. 31. Blended Learning Flavors of the Week
    32. 32. More than Rocket Science… • Investigate the “learning engineers” framework • Anticipate faculty development and support; acknowledge the destabilizing realities of blended learning. • Develop instructional solutions for instructional problems. • Demand a rigorous but attainable research agenda; contribute findings to a burgeoning field Yes, it will blend, but…
    33. 33. BIG DATA OR JUST BIG DASHBOARDS?
    34. 34. Next Generation of Data Visualization http://hint.fm/projects/wind/ Hint.fm http://hint.fm/projects/wind/
    35. 35. Unbundled Schools – Implications
    36. 36. Phototrails.net
    37. 37. Studying Learning in the Worldwide Classroom; Research into edX‟s First MOOC Research and Practice in Assessment, Summer 2
    38. 38. How does learner activity correlate to performance? Online textbook Videos Assessments Courtesy Seaton, Pritchard Aug 2012 Initial edX attempts at learner analytics
    39. 39. 154k  108k “participants” in total time spent
    40. 40. Time/Week per Activity  Weekly time spent per activity
    41. 41. Arrow thickness ~ # accesses Resource area ~ time spent What did “learners” use to learn? Pritchard http://RELATE.MIT.ed
    42. 42. Possible “universals”: • Weekends rule • Global Procrastination
    43. 43. Rey Junco…. “Generally, what you see is learning analytics applied to course management systems and course management systems is basically just a fancy way of saying an online discussion board and they are looking at how many times a student will respond, how - to a discussion - how quickly they respond to a discussion, how often they log on. So just very, very basic levels of data that they're looking at, and so the predictive models are not as accurate as they could be”. https://www.edsurge.com/n/2013-02-20-stanford-harvard-professors-dissect-bigdata Early Gap Analysis on Learning Data
    44. 44. Considerations for Predictive Learning Analytics • Design and build an integrated analytics framework which includes recruitment, retention, and classroom performance. • Early articulation of faculty, student and research requirements for data sets, indicators, and dashboards. • Define the desired range of personalized / adaptive learning features based on student profiles, pre-tests, placements etc. • Careful and close analysis of privacy concerns Towards Predictive Learning Analytics
    45. 45. Acrobatiq – 2014 Saas / API Based Product
    46. 46. REINVENTING INSTRUCTIONAL DESIGN AND COURSE PRODUCTION
    47. 47. Roots of Instructional Design – “Land” based teaching
    48. 48. Transitions towards a New Model of Instructional Design Course as product  backward planning learning as process Singular “heroic efforts”  integrated, cross disciplinary teams Vertically integrated service delivery  horizontally built and managed teams Faculty as consumer  faculty as co-producer Dominance of summative assessment models  inclusion of formative assessment models Data production  dataa New Model interpretation and Towards consumption, of Instructional iteration Design
    49. 49. Componetized, Modularized, Super-Sized

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