Session 1 Power Point

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Session 1 Power Point

  1. 1. Hazard Risk Management Establish the Context Objectives Stakeholders Criteria Define key elements Identify the Risks Hazards analysis Vulnerability analysis Analyze the Risks Review controls Likelihoods Consequences Level of risk Evaluate the Risks Evaluate risks Rank Risks Treat the Risks Identify options Select the best responses Develop risk treatment plan Implement Communicate and Consult Monitor and Review Emergency Management Australia, 2002. Emergency Risk Management
  2. 2. Stan Kaplan’s Theorems of Communication From the plenary Address at the 1996 Meeting Society for Risk Analysis <ul><ul><ul><li>Theorem 1: 50% of the problems in the world result from people using the same words with different meanings. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Theorem 2: The other 50% comes from people using different words with the same meaning. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Meanings of the word RISK RISK Colloquial Danger Venture Opportunity Technical Hazard Probability Consequence Insurance Chance Uncertainty Jardine and Hrudley, 1997. “Mixed Messages in Risk Communication”
  4. 4. Etymology of ‘RISK’ <ul><li>The Arabic word risq - “anything that has been given to you [by God] and from which you draw profit.” </li></ul><ul><li>The Latin word risicum - maritime term, described the scenario faced by sailors attempting to circumvent dangers posed by a barrier reef. </li></ul>From F. Wharton, “Risk Management: Basic Concepts and General Principles”
  5. 5. RISK The product of a hazard’s likelihood of occurrence and its consequences to society. RISK = LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE
  6. 6. HAZARDS <ul><li>“ Events or physical conditions that have the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, damage to the environment, interruption of business, or other types of harm or loss.” </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>- FEMA, 1997 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>FEMA. 1997. Multi Hazard Identification and Assessment . FEMA. Washington, D.C.
  7. 7. What makes something a hazard? If a storm occurs at sea, in an area of no shipping traffic and where there are no land masses, is it a hazard?
  8. 8. DISASTER “ A serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material, or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources” - The United Nations, 1992 United Nations, Department of Humanitarian Affairs. 1992. Internationally Agreed Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster Management . (DNA/93/36). United Nations. Geneva.
  9. 9. Is it a DISASTER? <ul><li>House fire in Newark, NJ - the house is destroyed, but there are no injuries. </li></ul><ul><li>Brush fire in Arizona - results in the burning of 100,000 acres of unoccupied land, 5 firefighters need to be admitted to the hospital for various injuries. The fire is finally extinguished by members of more than 10 fire departments. </li></ul><ul><li>The Great Chicago Fire of 1871 - the destruction included 28 miles of roads, 120 miles of sidewalk, 2000 lampposts, 18,000 buildings, totaling over $200 million in property damage (1/3 of the value of all property in the city at the time). 200-300 people died. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Terms Describing EVENTS Accidents Incidents Disturbances Emergencies Crises Tragedies Catastrophes Calamities Disasters
  11. 11. Sample Linear Taxonomy of ‘Event’ Terminology <ul><ul><li>An “ Incident ” is considered to be minor situation; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>An “ Emergency ” a more serious situation; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A “ Disaster ” a yet more serious situation; and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A “ Catastrophe ” the most serious situation of all. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Renee Pearce, L.D. 2000. An Integrated Approach For Community Hazard, Impact, Risk and Vulnerability Analysis: HIRV. Excerpt, Doctoral Dissertation, University of British Columbia. </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. VULNERABILITY “ The degree of susceptibility and resilience of the community and environment to hazards.” - Emergency Management Australia, 2000 Emergency Management Australia. 2000. “Emergency Risk Management”
  13. 13. What is the difference? <ul><ul><li>Preparedness – “Those activities, programs, and systems that exist prior to an emergency that are used to support and enhance response to an emergency or disaster.” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mitigation – “Any action taken to eliminate or reduce the long-term risk to human life and property from hazards.” </li></ul></ul>Preparedness: FEMA. 1992. Federal Response Plan; With Revisions . FEMA. Mitigation: FEMA. 1999. The Professional in Emergency Management (IS-513). Emergency Management Institute. Emmitsburg, MD.
  14. 14. SAFE “A risk becomes safe , or acceptable , if it is associated with the best of the available alternatives, not with the best of the alternatives which we would hope to have available. Do you agree or disagree? Derby, S. L., and R. L. Keeney. 1981. “Risk Analysis: Understanding ‘How Safe is Safe Enough’”. Risk Analysis. 1:217-224.
  15. 15. How safe is safe enough? <ul><li>Zero risk per person? </li></ul><ul><li>1 in a million risk per person? </li></ul><ul><li>1 in 100,000 risk per person? </li></ul><ul><li>1 in 10,000 risk per person? </li></ul>IT DEPENDS !
  16. 16. Some Odds of Death Hazard Annual Risk Lifetime Risk Car Accident 1/18,752 1/244 Accidental Fall 1/20,728 1/270 Accidental Poisoning 1/22,388 1/292 Murdered With a Gun 1/25,196 1/328 Hit by Car While Walking 1/45,117 1/588 Drowning (Accidental) 1/77,308 1/1,008 Fire/Smoke Inhalation 1/81,487 1/1,062 Lightning 1/ 4,262,813 1/55,578 Memmott, Mark. 2002. Fear may be overwhelming, but so are the odds. USA Today. October 18. p.6A
  17. 17. Probability <ul><ul><ul><li>Classical : Probability of getting 2 heads in 3 flips of a coin </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Subjective : Probability of Puerto Rico becoming a state in the next 20 years </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Frequency : Probability of a person getting in a car accident while talking on their cell phone, over a 1-year period </li></ul></ul></ul>Jardine and Hrudley, 1997. “Mixed Messages in Risk Communication”
  18. 18. Hazard Risk Management Establish the Context Objectives Stakeholders Criteria Define key elements Identify the Risks Hazards analysis Vulnerability analysis Analyze the Risks Review controls Likelihoods Consequences Level of risk Evaluate the Risks Evaluate risks Rank Risks Treat the Risks Identify options Select the best responses Develop risk treatment plan Implement Communicate and Consult Monitor and Review Emergency Management Australia, 2002. Emergency Risk Management
  19. 19. Disaster Management Cycle <ul><li>Mitigation </li></ul><ul><li>Preparedness </li></ul><ul><li>Response </li></ul><ul><li>Recovery </li></ul>
  20. 20. Disaster Resistant Communities <ul><ul><ul><li>Establish a Community Partnership </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Identify and Assess Community Risks </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mitigation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Generate Community Support </li></ul></ul></ul>
  21. 21. Sustainable Communities <ul><li>Disaster Resilience </li></ul><ul><li>Development </li></ul>
  22. 22. Risk Perception <ul><li>Definition </li></ul><ul><li>Perceived Risk </li></ul><ul><li>Personal Experience </li></ul>
  23. 23. Risk Communication <ul><li>Technical Data </li></ul><ul><li>Messages </li></ul><ul><li>Community Partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>Consensus Building </li></ul>

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