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  1. 1. Pep Canadell GCP International Project Office
  3. 3. Terrestrial National and Regional Programs LBA CarboEruope China Australia North America Carbon Plan Siberia Jp SA NZ Canadian 2
  4. 4. Hydrographic Sampling Stations Ships of Opportunity Pacific Ocean Indian Ocean Ocean National and Regional Programs Courtesy of Chris Sabine Courtesy of Chris Sabine
  5. 5. To develop comprehensive, policy-relevant understanding of the global carbon cycle, encompassing its natural and human dimensions and their interactions. Research Goal
  6. 6. The Conceptual Framework Disturbances Ecosystem Physiology Atmospheric Carbon Terrestrial Carbon Ocean/Coastal Carbon Biological Pump Climate Change and Variabil. Solubility Pump Unperturbed C Cycle Perturbed C Cycle Land Use Systems Industry Transport Systems Ocean-use Systems Fossil Carbon Perceptions of human welfare Changes in institutions & technol. Perception of a problem
  7. 7. 1. To develop a research framework for integration of the biogeochemical, biophysical and human components of the global carbon cycle The GCP Mandate 6. To develop a small number of new research initiatives that are feasible within a 3-5 year time framework on difficult and highly interdisciplinary problems of the carbon cycle 5. To strengthen the carbon-related research programs of nations and regions, and those in international programs such as IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, and the observation community, through better coordination, articulation of goals, and development of conceptual frameworks 4. To provide a global coordinating platform for regional and national carbon programs to improve observation network design, data standards, information and tools transfer, and timing of campaigns and process-based experiments, including the development of data-model fusion schemes, and design of cost effective observational and research networks 3. To develop tools and conceptual frameworks to couple the biophysical and human dimensions of the carbon cycle 2 . To synthesize current understanding of the global C cycle and provide rapid feedback to the research and policy communities and general public
  8. 8. 1. Patterns and Variability <ul><li>1.1. Enhancing Observations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Coordination & Standardization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lateral Movement of C </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Non-CO 2 compounds </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1.2. Model-Data Fusion </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Forward and Inverse Modeling </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Model-data fusion techniques </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1.3 Carbon Budgets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Standardized Methodologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Developing Methodologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Geographic/Sector Analyses </li></ul></ul>2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks <ul><li>2.1. Mechanisms </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple mechanisms in oceans </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple mechanisms on land </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Integrated anthrop. C emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2.2. Regional Development </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Case studies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Drivers and C consequences </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Management options </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2.3 Emergent Properties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Carbon-Climate interactions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Carbon-climate-human interactions </li></ul></ul>3. Future Dynamics <ul><li>3.1. Biological Control Points </li></ul><ul><ul><li>C sequestration </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Non-fossil emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3.2. FF Emissions Control Points </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mitigation options </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technological changes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3.3 Carbon 21 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Institutional analyses and design </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interactions between adaptat & mitigat. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interactions between C & others </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tools and approaches for C managem. </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Portfolio of Activities & Products 2002 2003 Annual SSC Meeting Publication Science Framework Terrestrial Sinks Wk Research Institute Data Assimilation State-of-the-Art Synthesis Wk Ocean Coordination Wk 2004 CO 2 Stabilization Pathways Wk T. Data Assimilation: Data Wk Respiration Book Land Use-Carbon SI Regional T. C Budgets Confer.
  10. 10. International Project and Affiliate Offices CSIRO,Canberra Australia NCAR,Boulder USA NIES,Tsukuba Japan Max Planck Institute Jena, Germany IOC/SCOR-CO 2 Panel Paris, France
  11. 11. Co-Chairs: Michael Raupach, Australia (IGBP) Robert Dickinson, USA (WCRP) Oran Young, USA (IHDP) Executive Director: Pep Canadell, Australia Michael Apps, Canada Alain Chedin, France Cheng-Tung Arthur Chen, China (Tapei) Peter Cox, UK Ellen Druffel, USA Christopher Field, USA Patricia Romero Lankao, Mexico Louis Philipe Lebel, Thailand Annan Partwardhan, India Monika Rhein, Germany Christopher Sabine, USA Riccardo Valentini, Italy Yoshiki Yamagata, Japan Scientific Steering Committee
  12. 12.
  13. 13. Focus 1 : Patterns and Variability What are the geographical and temporal patterns of carbon sources and sinks? Night Lights Ocean C Storage (mol m -2 ) Ocean C Fluxes Terrestrial NPP Takahashi et al. 2002) NASA Sabine (unpublished) Cramer et al. 2000)
  14. 14. Canadell et al. 2000 Data-Model Fusion [Use of multiple streams of datasets] C stock and flux measurements Inventory analyses Process-based information Climate data Remote sensing CO 2 column from space Inverse modeling Process-based modeling Retrospective and forward analyses Many others
  15. 15. Focus 2 : Processes, Controls and Interactions Emerging Properties of the coupled system Paleo Naturally dynamics Land Use Change Institutional Responses CO 2 fertilization Carbon Storage New Biospheric Responses Fossil Fuel Emissions What are the controls and feedback mechanisms – both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic – that determine the dynamics of the carbon cycle on scales of years to millennia?
  16. 16. Focus 2: Carbon Sink Mechanisms Carbon Storage in the Biosphere aCO 2 concentration Temperature Temperature Land use Ocean iron deposition Nitrogen deposition Warm ecosystems Cold ecosystems Soil respiration CO 2 fertilization N fertilization Fe fertilization Forest conversion Plant growth x x x x
  17. 17. Focus 2: Coupling the Climate-Carbon-Human System Hadley Center Climate Model Human Dimension (Biogeophysical) (Biogeochemical)
  18. 18. Focus 3 : Future Dynamics of the Carbon Cycle What are the likely dynamics of the global carbon cycle into the future? Friedlingstein et al. 2000 Terrestrial Biosphere C Sink Cramer et al. 2000 IPCC 2001
  19. 19. Hydrographic Sampling Stations Ships of Opportunity International CLIVAR/CO 2 Lines GCP-CO 2 Panel Workshop: [13-15 Jan. 2003, UNESCO, Paris] Ocean Carbon Research and Observation Activities <ul><li>To gather information on activities </li></ul><ul><li>To identify gaps and duplications </li></ul><ul><li>To produce recommendations </li></ul><ul><li>To integrate with other C data </li></ul>
  20. 20. Research Institute Series [2002-2005]: Data Assimilation in C Cycle Research Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation, Boulder, Colorado (US), 20 – 31 May 2002 Research, Tool development, Educational, Outreach <ul><li>Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation [2002] </li></ul><ul><li>Ocean Data-Model Assimilation [2003] </li></ul><ul><li>Land Data-Model Assimilation [2004] </li></ul><ul><li>Earth System Data-Model Assimilation [2005] </li></ul>
  21. 21. C Consequences of Regional Development Pathways Contribution to: Advanced Institute on Urbanization, Emission, and the Global Carbon Cycle START- Packard Foundation NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, 4 – 22 August 2003 Integrating carbon management into development strategies of cities and their surrounds in the Asia-Pacific Region: Establishing a network of regional case studies APN proposal submitted Source: Diane Pataki
  22. 22. Energy and Carbon: Options and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas signature over the next 50 years By using a mix of: energy strategies (renewables, conservation, cogeneration, efficiency increases) carbon sequestration (in terrestrial biotic, geological and oceanic sinks) agricultural practices linked with non-CO 2 emissions. 2. To develop and analyse a suite of pathways ( scenarios ) 1. To assess mitigation and adaptation options against environmental, social and economic (triple-bottom-line) criteria, including: (1) effectiveness (2) technological feasibility; (3) institutional viability; (4) economic viability; (5) social acceptability; (6) non-greenhouse impacts Workshop proposal for 2003 Australia as a case study
  23. 23. Impacts of land use/cover on the C cycle: fire, erosion, plantations, agriculture, pasture APN-GCTE-GCP, Kobe, 2001 Publication due: Dec. 2002 Publication: Land Use and the C Cycle in Asia Pacific
  24. 24. Quantifying Terrestrial Carbon Sinks : Science, Technology and Policy Wengen, Switzerland, September 25 - 27, 2002 Wengen Series-GCP-GCTE Publication due: Feb 2004 Publication: Terrestrial Sinks and their Policy Relevance
  25. 25. Atmospheric Composition and Associated Climate Change IPCC 2001 1
  26. 26. Toward CO 2 Stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences Wk: Feb. 2003, Ubatuba, Brazil   SCOPE-GCP Synthesis Activity Publication due: End 2003 State-of-the-art Synthesis: Towards CO 2 Stabilization SCOPE Series 1. current status of the carbon cycle; 2. future trends in the carbon cycle; 3. potential for deliberate management of the C cycle; 4. carbon-climate-human interactions. Topics :
  27. 27. Science : R h in soils, freshwater, and coastal zones; disturbanc.; land use change. Methods : modeling, scaling, experimental approaches Publication due: 2004 Publication: Carbon Oxidation Fluxes and Processes IGBP Book Series Proposal under development
  28. 28. Science Themes <ul><li>Focus 1: Patterns and Variability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A1.1: Enhancing observational knowledge of major C stores and fluxes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A1.2: Model-data fusion and model development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A1.3: Comprehensive regional and sectoral carbon budgets </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Focus 2: Processes, Controls and Interactions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A2.1: Mechanisms and feedbacks controlling carbon fluxes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A2.2: Carbon consequences of regional development pathways </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A2.3: Emergent properties of the coupled carbon-climate-human system </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Focus 3: Future Dynamics of the Carbon Cycle </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A3.1 Future of terrestrial and ocean sinks and sources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A3.2 Future of FF emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A3.3: Carbon21 - Integrated management strategies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Synthesis, communication, coordination </li></ul>
  29. 29. Atmospheric CO 2 and associated warming Thousands of Years (x1000) 180 280 Global Carbon Project 2001 IPCC 2001