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New Season for Jobs War Room Slides

War Room - October 2014

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New Season for Jobs War Room Slides

  1. 1. New Season for Jobs? 29 October 2014 War Room
  2. 2. HiddenLevers War Room Open Q + A Macro Coaching Archived webinars CE Credit Idea Generation Presentation deck Product UpdatesScenario Updates
  3. 3. Market Update 2015 Fed Stress Tests USA Jobs Pulse Check New Season for Jobs? Adios QE
  4. 4. HiddenLevers MARKET UPDATE
  5. 5. Market Update QE ends in year 6 Volatility Hoax Bullard saves Market sources: HiddenLevers Oil touched $79
  6. 6. Market Update – Ebola Pandemic sources: HiddenLevers, University of Hong Kong , USA Today 15% SARS 2003 Airlines crippled from tourist fear Ebola 2014 Airlines doing fine, Delta saying bookings unaffected Macro Snapshot
  7. 7. Macro Snapshot Oil and mortgage rates crash as the S&P 500 holds its own. Meanwhile, consumer confidence has reached 2005 levels and jobless claims are lowest in a decade.
  8. 8. 2015 FED STRESS TESTS HiddenLevers
  9. 9. Why does the Fed create Stress Tests? “These scenarios are not a forecast. Rather, they are hypothetical scenarios designed to assess the strength of banking organizations and their resilience to an unfavorable economic environment.” -Federal Reserve Bank
  10. 10. Review: 2014 Fed Stress Tests (Dec 2014) MISS 10y Treasuries closer to 2 than 3 MISS CPI + Commodities overvalued HIT 15% S&P rise projected.. could happen source: HiddenLevers, Federal Reserve
  11. 11. GOOD: Fed Baseline Scenario source: HiddenLevers, Federal Reserve sustained moderate expansion gradual normalization of treasury yields real GDP under 3% unemployment declines to 5% asset prices rising steadily inflation at 2% low equity market volatility average of outside economic forecasters
  12. 12. BAD: Fed Adverse Scenario rapid increase in short-term rates to 2.5% bank costs soar due to rate rise unemployment over 7% global weakening + US inflation squeeze mild US recession into mid-2015 inflation over 4% source: HiddenLevers, Federal Reserve yield curve higher + flatter decline in home prices, felt more in high gainer areas
  13. 13. UGLY: Fed Severely Adverse Scenario equity market distress exceeds 2008-09 brent crude oil prices rise to 110usd CPI over 4% on oil shock Rates -->2017 Short term at 0 long term at 1% global weakening + intense US recession + oil shock Unemployment over 10% GDP growth takes serious hit -- 4% source: HiddenLevers, Federal Reserve divergence corporate bonds yields higher rapid exits EM private equity securitizations Economies dependent on imported oil suffer more UMMM?
  14. 14. #FAIL: Fed Severely Adverse Scenario source: HiddenLevers, Federal Reserve why no scenario for global deflation risk?
  15. 15. Scenario: 2015 Fed Stress Tests Good Baseline Bad Adverse Ugly Severely Adverse The Baseline includes steady equities growth, fast real estate appreciation, and moderate inflation + GDP growth. The Adverse scenario is a stag- flation scenario, with high inflation and poor growth. The Severely Adverse scenario includes an equities decline of 50%, a deep recession, and static interest rates.
  16. 16. HiddenLevers USA JOBS PULSE CHECK $
  17. 17. Jobs Recovery: Pulse Check sources: Heritage, St. Louis Fed Participation Down Job Openings Up
  18. 18. Jobs Recovery : Comparison to Previous source: BLS, Heritage Bad news 77 months did much more for past recoveries Good news 77 months to get back to pre-recession employment.
  19. 19. sources: Forbes, SUNY Oswego Compared to other global financial crises, post-2007 US jobs recovery has been strong GDP Per Capita has risen modestly in US since 2007, and fallen in every European country save Germany Jobs Recovery: Global Perspective
  20. 20. Jobs Recovery: Quantity vs Quality sources: National Employment Law Project, HiddenLevers Wages decreasing for all but 1%. Jobs recovered are low wage. Employment Cost Index shows slowing of wage gains.
  21. 21. HiddenLevers NEW SEASON FOR JOBS?
  22. 22. New Season: Tech Automation = Job Killer Unemployment dropping but Who is rejoining work force? Productivity growing but Employment not so much sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Lowes Robot Shopper
  23. 23. New Season: Startups Myth sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
  24. 24. New Season: Jobs Cycle + Market Cycle When non-farm payrolls drop below 0 and stick there, trouble lies ahead. When non-farm payrolls stay above 0, market tends to rally steadily. sources: HiddenLevers
  25. 25. New Season for Jobs?: Recap US leading first world in job growth Fed clueless on inflation? no markets crash during jobs recoveries US Jobs have surpassed peak
  26. 26. Product Update Improved reports navigation New site design Morningstar import + sync improved risk measures improved security info choices

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War Room - October 2014

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