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Dealing with uncertainty: from agile to antifragile

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Slidedeck for my talk at the Global Scrum Gathering in Munich 2016

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Dealing with uncertainty: from agile to antifragile

  1. 1. Dealing with uncertainty From agile to antifragile
  2. 2. What is uncertainty?
  3. 3. „Uncertainty is risk that is immeasurable“ Economist Frank Knight (1885 – 1972) Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921)
  4. 4. Risk has an unknown outcome, but we know what the underlying outcome distribution looks like.
  5. 5. Risk are known unknowns, uncertainty are unknown unknowns.
  6. 6. Your unknown unknowns can be known knowns for others.
  7. 7. Events of the past are no guarantee for the future.
  8. 8. A Black Swan is an event that - comes as a surprise, - has a major effect, - and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (1960) The Black Swan (2007)
  9. 9. Black Swans create disorder - chaos - stress - shocks - volatility - opportunity
  10. 10. From fragile to antifragile
  11. 11. Fragile
  12. 12. Fragile is harmed from volatility.
  13. 13. Robust
  14. 14. Robust is withstanding volatility.
  15. 15. Antifragile
  16. 16. Antifragile is gaining from volatility. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (1960) Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder (2012)
  17. 17. Fragile and antifragile exist because of assymetry.
  18. 18. Antifragile Fragile
  19. 19. So what does this mean for you and your business?
  20. 20. How can you adapt to change faster as others?
  21. 21. Become Agile
  22. 22. How can you detect change faster as others?
  23. 23. Question Data
  24. 24. Listen to your people
  25. 25. Learning
  26. 26. How can you expose yourself to positive black swans?
  27. 27. Go to parties ...
  28. 28. Barbell Strategy
  29. 29. How can you avoid exposure to negative black swans?
  30. 30. Via Negativa
  31. 31. Optionality
  32. 32. Lindy Effect
  33. 33. How can you gain from disorder?
  34. 34. Skin in the game
  35. 35. Lemonade
  36. 36. Green Lumber Fallacy
  37. 37. „Uncertainty is risk that is immeasurable“ Economist Frank Knight (1885 – 1972) Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921)
  38. 38. www.data-solutions.ch Henrico Dolfing henrico.dolfing@data-solutions.ch +41 79 326 47 63

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