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Helena chari esvep - 26.2.14

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Helena chari esvep - 26.2.14

  1. 1. Helena Chari | TNS @helena_chari Συνέδριο ΕΣΒΕΠ 26.2.2014 ©TNS 2014 1
  2. 2. Living in a half-built house ©TNS 2014 2
  3. 3. ©TNS 2014 3
  4. 4. The press coverage ©TNS 2014 4
  5. 5. GDP growth turns negative…for 6th consecutive year % change vs previous year 5.5 3.5 -0.2 -3.1 -3.8 -4.9 -7.1 2006 2007 ©TNS 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 -6.4 2012 2013e 5
  6. 6. gross disposable income -40% Source: ELSTAT ©TNS 2014 6
  7. 7. Consumer spending ©TNS 2014 7
  8. 8. No one believes the economy is doing well (only 2% agree) Source: Eurobarometer ©TNS 2014 8
  9. 9. unemployment 28% Source: ELSTAT ©TNS 2014 9
  10. 10. youth unemployment 61.4% Source: ELSTAT ©TNS 2014 10
  11. 11. No one believes the employment situation is good (only 1% agrees) Source: Eurobarometer ©TNS 2014 11
  12. 12. Levels of trust have hit the floor (except for the Internet) ‘tend to trust’ - % Political parties Government Parliament Television 17 4 34 10 49 12 28 15 The UN The EU 39 20 21 Regional/Local public authorities 23 The press 59 23 Radio Internet 2008 2013 30 35 48 32 33 38 Source: Eurobarometer 69 & 80 ©TNS 2014 12
  13. 13. ©TNS 2014 13
  14. 14. How we currently see things 46 Satisfaction with life (total 'satisfied') 37 Spring '11 26 Autumn '11 32 Autumn '12 36 38 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Personal job situation (total 'good') 19 Spring '11 36 18 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 21 22 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Financial situation of h/h (total 'good') 29 24 Spring '11 22 22 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Source: Eurobarometer ©TNS 2014 14
  15. 15. What we expect in 12 months Your life in general (total 'worse') 46 Spring '11 61 Autumn '11 57 Autumn '12 46 42 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Personal job situation (total 'worse') 42 30 Spring '11 Autumn '11 36 35 Autumn '12 Spring '13 30 Autumn '13 Financial situation of h/h (total 'worse') 59 Spring '11 67 Autumn '11 62 Autumn '12 57 Spring '13 52 Autumn '13 Source: Eurobarometer ©TNS 2014 15
  16. 16. We also expect things to be less worse for the economy & unemployment Employment situation in Greece (total 'worse') 79 82 81 68 Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 70 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Situation of Greek economy (total 'worse') 75 78 76 62 Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 63 Spring '13 Autumn '13 Source: Eurobarometer ©TNS 2014 16
  17. 17. Retail sales – year on year ©TNS 2014 17
  18. 18. Retail sales – year on year ©TNS 2014 18
  19. 19. Consumer confidence ©TNS 2014 19
  20. 20. Consumer confidence ©TNS 2014 20
  21. 21. Business confidence ©TNS 2014 21
  22. 22. New orders ©TNS 2014 22
  23. 23. Manufacturing PMI ©TNS 2014 23
  24. 24. ©TNS 2014 24
  25. 25. ©TNS 2014 25
  26. 26. What has been the consumer reaction? ©TNS 2014 26
  27. 27. Need to have > Nice to have Growing trend of categories decreasing in penetration Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014
  28. 28. Consumers have spent less (vs 2012) Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014 28
  29. 29. Consumers have bought less (vs 2012) Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014 29
  30. 30. The 2013 shopping trip vs 2012: Basket size (volume) Same volume Basket value Frequency € € Paying less Less often Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014 30
  31. 31. The evolution of shopping missions: Smaller baskets are becoming more important Occasions % Spend % 13.9 6.4 13.7 6.2 13.4 27.4 25.9 25.1 37.5 37.8 37.7 25.3 25.4 25.5 33.3 34.1 34.4 13.9 14.6 15.0 MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 7.0 stock up mainstream top up proximity 41.6 MAT Nov 11 42.1 MAT Nov 12 42.7 MAT Nov 13 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014
  32. 32. Smaller baskets … 1. are the only shopping mission maintaining frequency 2. have significant growth in packs/trip 3. are flat in spend/trip Frequency Packs/trip Spend/trip MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 38.7 39.4 39.5 3.69 3.7 3.81 6.24 6.19 6.18 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014
  33. 33. Shift to cheaper options Promotions Prices Downtrading Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014
  34. 34. The steady march of private labels ©TNS 2014
  35. 35. You will find in every 6 out of ten baskets at least one private label product. And it’s a growing trend 64.4 63.5 61.3 MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014 35
  36. 36. Private Label – volume share (in units) 38.1% Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014 36
  37. 37. Private Label - value share 27.4% Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014 37
  38. 38. Private Label value share differs widely category by category 76 54 53 52 39 38 30 25 14 paper products edible oils RTE canned food frozen food alcoholic beverages dairy products snacks detergents personal care Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014 38
  39. 39. the Price is an issue ©TNS 2014 39
  40. 40. ©TNS 2014
  41. 41. ©TNS 2014 2,500 Spend (€000) 24-Nov-13 27-Oct-13 29-Sep-13 25-Aug-13 28-Jul-13 30-Jun-13 26-May-13 28-Apr-13 31-Mar-13 24-Feb-13 27-Jan-13 30-Dec-12 25-Nov-12 28-Oct-12 30-Sep-12 26-Aug-12 29-Jul-12 01-Jul-12 27-May-12 29-Apr-12 01-Apr-12 26-Feb-12 29-Jan-12 Rolling ΜΑΤ 4,000 800 700 3,500 600 3,000 500 Volume (000 litres) - Actual 01-Jan-12 4,500 27-Nov-11 Spend (€000) - Actual Syoss has grown share of spend by 59% and share of volume by 92% 900 400 Volume (000 litres) Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
  42. 42. …and the single biggest contributor to its growth in spend has been penetration Average price has declined by 14% Volume per trip grew by 14% Penetration grew by 43% Frequency grew by 11% Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014
  43. 43. Επαγγελματική Ποιότητα σε Προσιτή Τιμή Average price/volume Shampoo total 6.63 Head&Shoulders Ultrex Pantene Fructis Timotei Johnson’s Syoss Private Labels 8.70 8.22 8.16 7.94 5.78 5.58 4.61 2.87 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014
  44. 44. ©TNS 2014 44
  45. 45. How can a brand grow? ©TNS 2014 45
  46. 46. Loyalty is very hard to come by (for brands) …even for market leaders Loyalty in spend - % 43 57 45 55 Coca-Cola Colgate 52 48 Nescafe 52 48 Ariel 56 63 67 69 72 73 44 37 33 31 28 27 Amita Pantene Soupline Fitness Papagalos Misko Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014 46
  47. 47. What makes less of a difference is avg. weight of purchase ie, loyalty, or how many times/how much buyers of a brand will buy in a year ©TNS 2014
  48. 48. What makes more of a difference is appeal ie, penetration, or the number of buyers a brand has ©TNS 2014
  49. 49. So, does that mean that making shoppers more loyal to my brand isn’t that important? Surely the most loyal shoppers are the most important? ©TNS 2014
  50. 50. Well…let’s take Coca-Cola as an example, the leading brand in terms of penetration 6% …and only 16% of them are heavy buyers 15.8% of brand shoppers are 100% loyal… Heavy Buyers Medium Buyers Light Buyers Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014
  51. 51. Coca-Cola buyers are also buying: Fanta 53 Ivi 46 Private Labels 46 Lux 43 Sprite Pepsi Epsa 39 30 27 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014
  52. 52. …and let’s look at another popular brand…Pantene - with lower penetration than Coca-Cola - of 37% 9% …and only 20% of them are heavy buyers of brand shoppers are 100% loyal… Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014
  53. 53. Pantene buyers are also buying: Syoss 31 Head&Shoulders 24 Ultrex 21 Sunsilk 20 Fructis 20 Elvive 19 Timotei 18 Private Labels 18 Beer 16 Wash&Go 14 Johnson's 13 Herbal Essences Gliss 13 11 Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014
  54. 54. Even when overall brand sales/penetration levels are static – the consumers underneath are moving ©TNS 2014
  55. 55. ©TNS 2014 55
  56. 56. Loyalty is very hard to come by (for retailers as well) …with, on average, 5 retailers in their repertoire Loyalty in spend - % 66 34 Masoutis 69 31 Sklavenitis 77 80 85 85 86 88 23 20 15 15 14 12 Grp CRF AB Galaxias Lidl Veropoulos My Market Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014 56
  57. 57. Retailer frequency 91 35 22 Total Masoutis Sklavenitis 18 15 14 14 13 Grp Carrefour AB Galaxias Lidl Veropoulos Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel ©TNS 2014 57
  58. 58. Your consumers are just somebody else’s consumer who occasionally buy you (this applies equally to light or to heavy buyers) ©TNS 2014
  59. 59. ©TNS 2014
  60. 60. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price ≠ Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology ©TNS 2014
  61. 61. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price ≠ Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology ©TNS 2014
  62. 62. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price ≠ Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology ©TNS 2014
  63. 63. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price ≠ Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology ©TNS 2014
  64. 64. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price ≠ Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology ©TNS 2014
  65. 65. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price ≠ Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology ©TNS 2014
  66. 66. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price ≠ Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology ©TNS 2014
  67. 67. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price ≠ Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology ©TNS 2014
  68. 68. 1. Understand the consumer 2. Understand the shopper 3. Do not slash marketing spend 4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in 5. Price ≠ Value 6. Innovate 7. The market demands a low-cost offering 8. Open innovation 9. Think technology ©TNS 2014
  69. 69. Greece… ©TNS 2014 69

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