The systems model developed considers the following variables and behaviors as key in understanding the essential theory of the demographic transition. First, the amount of females is broken up into 11 different stocks ranging from “Age 0-4” to “Age 50 and Up”. The incremental stocks, or cohort breakdowns, were determined by (A) infant mortality rate and (B) female reproductive changes that take place between “Ages 15-19”. (See Endnote ? for a detailed variable list). On the right side of the model, each cohort stock is linked to a “Death Rate”, “Age Specific Mortality Rate (ASMR)”, and “Deaths”, which in turn determine the number of “Survivors” per cohort. The crude death rate is defined as the total number of deaths per year per 1000 people. Whereas the ASMR is refers to the total number of deaths per year per 1000 people of a given age. Since we wanted to manipulate the model, the ASMR feeds into the crude death rate and is combined in turn with a general mortality factor. So, for instance if a new technology is introduced within society we can observe its impact by altering the “General Mortality Factor” variable. The left side of the model is focused on “Desired Family Size” and the “Birth Rate”. Beginning at cohort, “Age 15-19”, birth rate per cohort is determined by factoring in the “Desired Birth Rate” which stems from “Desired Family Size”. The “Mother to Daughter Ratio” influences the “Net Change” in “Desired Family Size”. When daughters observe that less infants make it to adulthood they are inclined to have a greater number of children. Conversely, when accounting for decreases in birth rates, as more infants live to adulthood and it costs more to have a child the “Desired Family Size” decreases.
The Demographic Transition: A Systems Model
#wfs12 #besthf 07.29.2012The Demographic Transition Emily Empel I @localrat Heather Schlegel I @Heathervescent
11 10.6 High 10 Medium Low 9 8.9 8 Population (in billions) 7.4 7 6.1 6 5 4 3 2.5 2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050UN Population Projections
Africa Asia 10 Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania 9 Northern America Europe 8 Population (in billions) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2250 2250 2300UN Population Projections by Region
Population Change Model+Birth Rates Death Rates - = Growth RateThe Demographic Transition