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MobiU2011 Forrester Keynote: STRAT 101 Industry Overview

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Mobile is everywhere. Stats on the numbers and the size of the industry change constantly but it’s common knowledge that it will be big. Now that 75% of brands have tried mobile what are the key stats that will help guide future decisions? Julie’s state of the industry will provide insights into what’s currently happening in the mobile space and a five-year forecast. She will also provide best practices in developing an outstanding, transactional mobile experience. Her expertise in mobile commerce will give you insights into what to expect and how to prepare for the future of mobile.

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MobiU2011 Forrester Keynote: STRAT 101 Industry Overview

  1. 1. 1 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  2. 2. Mobile Commerce: Current & Future TrendsJulie ÄskVice PresidentForrester ResearchSeptember 22, 20112 © 2009 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 2011
  3. 3. Mobile has the potential to be even bigger or more disruptive than the Internet.3 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  4. 4. Mobile will be the primary digital connection to your customers.4 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  5. 5. Key Questions How are consumers using mobile today? What are the opportunities for companies to leverage mobile throughout the customer’s journey? What new opportunities should companies pursue to create and monetize experiences that leverage the mobile phone?5 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  6. 6. How are consumers using mobile devices today?6 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  7. 7. People of all nationalities and incomes havesophisticated handsets7 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  8. 8. Consumer spending is increasing and with it ad spendand investment in mobile services • 12% research; 4% buy • Smartphone owners: 30% research; 11% buy • Forrester eBusiness group estimated direct spending on mobile to be about $6B in 2011 Consumer Spending Mobile Investment • Web sites Marketing Spend • Applications • Spend mostly on display ads, • Infrastructure search, messaging and • Avg. investment ca. $170K by applications online retailers • >$1B in US in 2011 Base: 7,156 US online adults with a cell phone8 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Source: North American Technographics Benchmark Survey, Q2 2010 (US, Canada)
  9. 9. Portable media or computing platforms will grow with phones continuing to dominateMillions of US consumers with each device Five-year forecast of mobile devices 140 120 Smartphones 100M 100 80 Tablets 60 40 eReaders 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (F) (F) (F) (F) (F) (F) Source: Forrester Research Forecast (2010-2015, US) 9 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  10. 10. Overall, few consumers use their mobile phones to research and purchase products Which of the following activities do you do on your primary cell phone or handheld wireless device AT LEAST MONTHLY? 29% Smartphone 17% 10% 10% All mobile 7% Research products for 4% purchase 8% Receive QMD 6% coupons/promotions 2% Purchase products 1%Feature Phones 1% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Base: 8,352 US adults with a mobile phone, 2,421 Smartphone users, 1,841 QMD users, and 4,091 feature phone users 10 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Source: North American Technographics Benchmark Survey, Q2 2010 (US, Canada)
  11. 11. Smartphone owners, however, do Which of the following activities do you do on your primary cell phone or handheld wireless device AT LEAST MONTHLY? 29% Smartphone 17% 10% 10% All mobile 7% Research products for 4% purchase 8% Receive QMD 6% coupons/promotions 2% Purchase products 1%Feature Phones 1% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Base: 8,352 US adults with a mobile phone, 2,421 Smartphone users, 1,841 QMD users, and 4,091 feature phone users 11 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Source: North American Technographics Benchmark Survey, Q2 2010 (US, Canada)
  12. 12. Handset ownership alone does not tell the whole story We placed US adults into six groups based on their mobile phone usage to create our Mobile Technographics characterization. The groups are defined by the extent to which the mobile phone user has adopted mobile data services, her frequency of use of these services, and the level of sophistication in the mobile applications they use. Increasing mobile sophistication Mobile Engagement Opportunities Applications Most advanced phone users; Access mobile SuperConnecteds Internet at least weekly or do multiple SMS services and alerts 29% advanced activities monthly or more Mobile Web Entertainers Listen to music, watch video, or play games 22% at least weekly Connectors Productivity users; over 25% of primary cell 8% phone use if for work purposes as well as do advanced activities at least monthly Communicators 17% Communicate heavily using data (SMS, MMS, email, or IM at least monthly) Talkers Little to none 26% Use phone primarily for voice Inactives 10% No mobile phone Base: 10,802 US Adults12 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Source: North American Technographics Benchmark Survey, Q2/Q3 2011 (US, Canada)
  13. 13. Consumers also look to tablets for online shoppingJuly 2011 “Why Tablet Commerce May Soon Trump Mobile Commerce” 13 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  14. 14. How can mobile technologies be used to engage consumers on their journey today?14 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  15. 15. Mobile can support consumers throughout their journey • Branding • Consumer reviews • Registrations • Coupons/promotions • Sweepstakes • Nearest dealer/retailer • Tools (e.g., product selection) • Location-based • Video (Demonstrations) marketing • Price comparisons Discovery Influence • Product comparisons • Product information • Ratings • Store inventory Repeat Purchase • Accessories Sale Manufacturer • Lead generation • Rebate • Sales• Maintenance reminders Ownership• New Products• Promotions • Community• Replenishment • Customer Service • Ownership guides • Services (e.g., Nike)15 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  16. 16. Branding is not limited to rich media within applications and banner ads Discovery / Demonstration Influence What to buy Where to buy Repeat purchase Sale Repeat Post-Purchase purchase Interaction Ownership16 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  17. 17. Branding is often done with voting or sponsoredalertsShort codes • Radio and TV programming along with “live” events are most often associated with using SMS as a cross-channelSimple Key engagement opportunity Words • Voting is one of the most popular applications used • Typically, the ad space within the returned messages is sponsored. In this example, the branding was part of the on-screen promotion of the voting from Burger King17 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  18. 18. Charmin’s “Sit or Squat” application has been a monster hit• Sponsored content• Tens of millions plus downloads• Offers utility• Promoted on Web site Source: iPhone screenshot: Charmin mobile application18 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  19. 19. Progressive recently used Shazam to tag audio content and link viewers to mobile content19 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  20. 20. Sudafed used these ads in airports this past winter – highly contextual Source: iPhone screenshot: Sudafed website20 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  21. 21. Zappos links to an interactive Web page that allows a consumer to mix/match outfits on a printed page21 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  22. 22. Too many branding exercises with mobile media fall short– mostly because content is not optimized for mobile Beta LED Mecho Systems 22 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  23. 23. Influence is also marketing Discovery / Influence Demonstration What to buy Where to buy Repeat purchase Sale Repeat Post-Purchase purchase Interaction Ownership23 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  24. 24. Delta offers an interactive Web page (QR code trigger) with product features Real Simple Magazine September 201124 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  25. 25. Ryobi uses branded QR codes on their product tags25 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  26. 26. The video demonstrates how the product is used26 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  27. 27. Price comparison applications offer conquestopportunities Scan Online Prices Buy Locally27 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  28. 28. QR codes at the shelf help consumers compare products Users scan the barcode with their mobile device High end products, in- store, will have QR codes for customers to scanScanned products are added to a list on a user’s phone, whichbrings up item detailsand can be comparedwith multiple products Source: Best Buy 28 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  29. 29. Shopkick rewards visits, browsing and scansA consumer collects 50 Promotes an “award” for Once the consumer arrives, they“kickbucks” once they walk going to the Home Theater are immediately awarded points.through the door. Department. Source: iPhone screen shot: Shopkick mobile application29 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  30. 30. Stop&Shop has been working with Modiv Media for yearsto execute on targeted, real time, in-store marketing Users scan items with the handheld device Grab your device by swiping your Stop&Shop loyalty cardGuests can look through their The savings whole grocery button brings up list and know a list which the the final cost user can scrollbefore they get through to the register 30 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  31. 31. Mobile also plays a role in direct commerce Discovery / Influence Demonstration What to buy Where to buy Repeat purchase Sale Repeat Post-Purchase purchase Interaction Ownership31 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  32. 32. … and shop with their phones in subway stationsin Koreahttp://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/jacks-blog-10017212/virtual-supermarket-32 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  33. 33. NFC is most often associated with payments, butNFC will also be used to connect consumers to info33 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  34. 34. Starbucks allows users to pay with their phones andreload prepaid cards Source: iPhone screen shot: Starbucks mobile application34 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  35. 35. Ownership and loyalty offer more future opportunities Discovery / Influence Demonstration What to buy Where to buy Repeat purchase Sale Repeat Post-Purchase purchase Interaction Ownership35 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  36. 36. GE’s Transformer app for the iPhone and iPad allows field engineers to monitor equipment remotely One of the strengths of the application is rich, graphing tools. ROI: Proactive maintenance extends the life time of a wind Offers interactive mapping of turbine. transformer locations.36 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Source: http://econsultancy.com
  37. 37. The sales and finance staff at Life Technologies use Roambi for sales data and to track customer activityThis viewshows accountmanageractivity.Customer ROI: Moreactivity is also efficient salesavailable. process and real-time decision making. The application integrates with Siebel – their CRM solution – to pull account 37 information. © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  38. 38. Apps can also act as an in-depth information source • Research • News • Useful Links Genentech BioOncology • Conferences/Events • Polls • Customer ServiceLand O’ Lakes could offer analogous Genentech also offers a “Fightapplications to their farmers, horse and the Flu” application –cattle owners, etc. again, the focus is on utility. 38 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  39. 39. Flowers are sold with tags with 2D bar codes with product and care information39 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  40. 40. 40 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  41. 41. Products like these will ship with companion mobile services Running Shoes Cars TV’s Printers41 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  42. 42. This will be the Era of Experience.42 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  43. 43. What are the emerging opportunities?43 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  44. 44. The future of mobile is context.44 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  45. 45. Forrester defines context as “the sum total of what your customer has told you and is experiencing at his moment of engagement.”45 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  46. 46. Context includes:  Situation: the current location, altitude, and speed the customer is experiencing  Preferences: the history and personal decisions the customer has shared with you  Attitudes: the feelings or emotions implied by the customer’s actions and logistics46 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  47. 47. Opportunities to utilize the phone differently than the PC will grow over time – today it’s basicHigh Level of Sophistication • Consumer behavior • GPS Basic Context • Time of dayLow 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 47 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  48. 48. Google maps utilizes user location to tailor results User Location Supplied “City Name”48 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  49. 49. Some companies are already beginning to add a layer of intelligence to this contextHigh Level of Sophistication • Consumer’s purchase intent • In my store? In a competitor’s store? ... add intelligence • Within one hour of flight? 2 days? • Consumer behavior • GPS Basic Context • Time of dayLow 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 49 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  50. 50. Intelligence added to location will dictate consumer experiences on mobile Retail Example Based On User Location In-Store Competitor Store Home • Barcode scanning • Coupons • Coupons • Consumer reviews • In-store inventory • How-to videos • Coupons • Nearest “store” • In-store inventory • In-store navigation • Pricing • Research tools • Lists (e.g., wedding) • Promotions • Shopping list build • Loyalty • Store hours • Promotions • Store location • Shopping lists • Weekly/Circular50 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  51. 51. Contextual use of time will help prioritize home page Airline Example Based On User Time - 2 days - 2h Flight + 2h + 2 days • Arrival time • Customer service• Change reservation • Food order • Mileage status• Reserve seat • Movies • Reward travel• View reservations • Wi-Fi • Upcoming reservations • Check gate • Ground • Departure time transportation • Lounge access • Lost luggage • Upgrade • Navigation51 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  52. 52. A host of new technologies will appear in cell phones Technology Opportunity (Examples) • Distance measured, gesture controlControls • 3D Cameras • Biometrics • Security, access cards, ID • Conversational Voice Recognition • Verbal command • Near Field Communications (NFC) • Payments, ticketing, and security • 3D displays • Augmented reality, video outputDisplays • High resolution displays • Media consumption, bar codes • Micro-mirrors • Image projection; pico-projectors • Touch inputs (fine-tuned)Data Collection • Accelerometers (detects motion/tilt) • Phone orientation as control, pedometer • Chemical sensors • CO detection, food freshness • Gyroscopes • Gesture control, navigation, games • Magnetometers • Directions – “Is it over there?” • Microbolometers (infrared) • Night vision; heat; light/dark • Pressure sensor • Height in buildings Source: AMFitzgerald & Associates, Yole Development and interviews with Atmel, InvenSense, and Sharp 52 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  53. 53. Sensors in phones are adding capabilities computers don’t haveHigh • 3D cameras/displays • What floor in building? What aisle? Level of Sophistication • Direction consumer facing? … add 3rd dimension • Light? Dark? • Augmented Reality (true) • Consumer’s purchase intent • In my store? In a competitor’s store? ... add intelligence • Within one hour of flight? 2 days? • Consumer behavior • GPS Basic Context • Time of dayLow 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 54 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  54. 54. 55 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  55. 55. “Where am I” will have a height dimension Use elevator “A” to get to roof top bar. Vending machines is one floor down. Fitness room is two floors down Source: Interviews with AMFitzgerald & Associates and Yole Development56 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  56. 56. “Where is the nearest dealership” will not require users to orient themselves “Is the parts shop this way?” “Is the nearest dealership over there?”57 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  57. 57. 58 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  58. 58. The next stage will be change how we control the phoneHigh • Biometrics … fundamentally • Display technology • Gesture-based control alter navigation • 3D cameras/displays • What floor in building? What aisle? Level of Sophistication • Direction consumer facing? … add 3rd dimension • Light? Dark? • Augmented Reality (true) • Consumer’s purchase intent • In my store? In a competitor’s store? ... add intelligence • Within one hour of flight? 2 days? • Consumer behavior • GPS Basic Context • Time of dayLow 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 59 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  59. 59. Voice command: “Find a fridge.”Phone assesses Phone finds the Phone selects Mobile appsize of fridge nearest store with colors based on checks Wellspossible the fridge in stock current palette. Fargo bank at the right price. account.60 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  60. 60. And “machines” will have their own mobile “The load is dry. Clean filter.” “Grandma made tea today.” “Air pressure low in front left tire.”61 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  61. 61. The “mouse’s” days are limited … motion will control these devices62 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  62. 62. The phone is breaking free of the PC – moving out of its shadow – so must you64 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  63. 63. You have an opportunity to be ahead of the curve … so how do you get there?65 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  64. 64. Forrester recommends the P.O.S.T. methodology for mobile strategy development People. Objectives. Strategy. Technology.How do People use What business What tactics Which mobile their mobile Objectives should inform our mobile Technology is the phones today? mobile support? Strategy? best fit? REACH OFFERING VALUE CHAIN COMMITMENT 66 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  65. 65. Brands can start with migrating online services … Advanced Contextual High Mobile Today Unique Cross- Next 2-3 years Level of Sophistication Channel • Migrate services that are frequently used online AND Multichannel are mobile appropriate Nothing (e.g., value in immediacy, simplicity, and contextual Low Evolution of Services Over Time67 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  66. 66. … but should quickly start planning mobile-only services Advanced Contextual High Mobile Today Unique Cross- Next 2-3 years Level of Sophistication Channel • Mobile-only services will offer Multichannel consumers incremental value • These services make use of unique Nothing device features such as GPS, camera, NFC, gyroscope, ac celerometer, etc. • These services often are built into applications (e.g., payments), but could also include messaging (e.g., GPS fraud alerts) or Web Low Evolution of Services Over Time68 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  67. 67. Thank you. Julie Ask +1 415 355 6002 jask@forrester.com www.forrester.com69 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  68. 68. Thank youJulie Äsk+1 415.355.6002jask@forrester.comwww.forrester.com © 2009 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
  69. 69. 71 © 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

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