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Adaptive Learning: Skills for Learning Smarter, Faster & Together

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Craig Weber & Chris Soderquist Presentation at 2016 Science of HOPE

Description:
This session will help community partners better recognize the “adaptive challenges” they face in the key goals and activities they’re pursuing. Better still, we’ll provide an overview of the core adaptive learning skills necessary to help them better address those challenges: systems thinking, conversational capacity, and a “Yes to the mess” mindset. Specific attention will be given to how these interrelated skills can accelerate community engagement and learning. 

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Adaptive Learning: Skills for Learning Smarter, Faster & Together

  1. 1. Using System Dynamics to Build Collective, Operational Understanding or Getting Everyone “On the Same Page” A session for the Science of HOPE Conference Presented by Chris Soderquist, Pontifex Consulting April 19, 2016
  2. 2. Purpose, Process, Payoff Purpose Provide an overview of System Dynamics Process • Overview • Expectations • Mental Models • The Purpose of Simulation Modeling • Attributes of Good Models • Understanding Counterintuitive Behavior • How to Build Models • Foundation for Healthy Generations Model • Q&A
 Payoff By the end of this session you’ll be able to... •Describe the purpose of simulation modeling •Utilize insights derived from modeling projects •Contribute to a modeling project
  3. 3. Expectations • Very broad brush of system dynamics – the session may seem a blur!! • We could spend (at least!) a day on many concepts • Will engage both the left & right side of the brain...Brain Pain • We can speed up, slow down, or mix it up…based on your needs • FUN!!!!
  4. 4. Staffing at General Hospital 1. The hospital has two kinds of nurses: experienced and inexperienced. 2. The hospital has a large number of experienced nurses. 3. Experienced nurses have been quitting at the same rate each month for several years (i.e., every month the same number of experienced nurses quit). 4. The "staffing policy" has been to hire a new (inexperienced) nurse as soon as an experienced one quits. 5. The hospital’s training program is "perfect." All inexperienced nurses become experienced in exactly 6 months! 6. The training is so engaging that no inexperienced nurses ever quit before completing the program! What pattern over time will be traced by the number of Experienced Nurses following the step-increase in quitting volume? Suppose that 3 months from now, the volume of experienced nurses quitting steps up by a small amount to a new level, and then remains at this level forever. The hospital will continue their policy of hiring one inexperienced nurse for each experienced nurse that quits. Month A__ B__ C__ D__ E__ F__ G__
  5. 5. OBSERVATIONS... BTW Don’t worry if you got it wrong Most people do…I got it wrong the first time I once presented to a room of 30 aeronautical engineers (i.e. rocket scientists) – they all got it wrong!!! Observation Systems Thinking can help get people on the same page about… •What is happening and what might happen in the future •Why this is happening (what’s the physics of the system) •What would be the most effective strategy for handling Beliefs about different expected behaviors will lead to extremely diverse (diametrically opposed!) ideas about... • Is the behavior a problem? • If so, “what to do” Differences were not magnitude but kinds of behavior (e.g. not predicting actual amount of staff, only whether it would increase or decrease, and if so, how)
  6. 6. Realist I use models all the -me to make decisions, 
 they’re just implicit and usually untested. I can use a model to make my assump-ons explicit, share them, improve them, and test them. It will improve our ability to rigorously 
 discuss the issues! “ Cynic It’s only a model! The world is much more complex, so it’s not useful. Our situa-on is unique so 
 your model doesn’t apply. “ Mys-c It can predict the future. If I can just get everything 
 into the model, then 
 it will be perfect. Perspectives on Models All models are wrong, some are useful! — Box & Deming
  7. 7. Operational Thinking
 vs. Correlational Thinking Correlational Model US Milkt = f(US Milkt-1, IRt-1, GDPt-1, Feed pricet-1, ...) Operational Model Operational models identify levers!
  8. 8. Feedback Loop Thinking
 vs. Linear Thinking Example What makes for a successful organization? Success Leadership Good staff Great product Profits •Linear Thinking (aka Static Thinking) says that… •This causes that (X causes Y)…enough said! •Feedback Loop Thinking views causality as circular rather than unidirectional in nature. •Implications: static vs. dynamic/ongoing process perspective, exogenous vs. endogenous viewpoint.
  9. 9. By using models, we can better understand counterintuitive results
  10. 10. How to build (and frame) useful systems models …and then add breadth and a bit more detail – slowly! Representing “the system” 1. Low Road My advice: Take the High Road! 2.Getupoutoftheweeds… Breadth (Time/Space) (extensive boundary) Depth (intensive boundary) Shallow Highly Aggregated Deep Highly Disaggregated Narrowly Focused Broadly Focused Many mental models are here Good “systems” models are here
  11. 11. The inevitable result of it’s all connected http://minstrelboy.blogspot.com/2009/12/military-plan-for-afghan-war-surge-in.html http://www.closetcooking.com/2007/07/spaghetti- alla-carbonara-with-twist.html Example courtesy of Steve Peterson,The Peterson Group
  12. 12. To get on the High Road (and stay there!), All models are wrong, some are useful - George Box & Ed Deming Other things being equal, a simpler explanation is better than a more complex one - William of Occam, Occam’s Razor A model should be as simple as possible, but no simpler - Albert Einstein “…details are confusing. It is only by selection, by elimination, by emphasis, that we get at the real meaning of things…” - Georgia O’Keefe "Any intelligent fool can make things bigger and more complex. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction." —A. Einstein
  13. 13. Match your initiatives to leverage points Reducing symptom impact on ACE occurrence _________________________ _________________________ _________________________ _________________________ Increasing/building community capacity ____________________________ ____________________________ ____________________________ ____________________________ Improving social/economic environment.. addressing social determinants of health _________________________________ _________________________________ _________________________________ Improving social/economic environment.. addressing social determinants of health _________________________________ _________________________________ _________________________________ Reducing the generation of stress _________________________________ _________________________________ _________________________________ _________________________________ _________________________________
  14. 14. How to use learning labs (built on simulation models) MINDSET = Learner! ✦Participate with intention to learn ✦Participant goals ✦Articulate "theories" and predict outcomes ✦Engage with any gap between a prediction and simulated outcome I’m here to learn about •the issues •myself •my colleagues’ perspectives What do I know about childhood trauma? If we did X, what do I predict would happen? Hmm! Why didn’t what I expect happen?! What assumptions are different in the lab than mine?
  15. 15. YouthViolence Model
  16. 16. Foundation for Healthy Generations Model
  17. 17. Model Purpose The Healthy Generation system dynamics model will Eventually be given to communities for capacity building and strategy development Begin guiding foundation’s (and its network’s) investment strategies Be modified regularly as system understanding improves 2016 2017 2018 Last half of…
  18. 18. 2000 2050 Food Security 2000 2050 Crime 2000 2050 Intergenerational ACEs 2000 2050 Adult Functioning Health & Productivity Happiness/Fulfilment Hope Avg Education level Interventions Improve view of self (Postive efficacy) Capabilities Relational / Intimate Partner / Parenting Skills Education & Work Skills Belonging w/ Those Who Care for Us Daily Attachment Healthy Social Network Social Bridging Rights & Responsibilities Framework Community Health & Effectiveness of Programs / Services Community Muscle
  19. 19. …and then add breadth and a bit more detail – slowly! Representing “the system” 1. Low Road My advice: Take the High Road! 2.Getupoutoftheweeds… Breadth (Time/Space) (extensive boundary) Depth (intensive boundary) Shallow Highly Aggregated Deep Highly Disaggregated Narrowly Focused Broadly Focused Many mental models are here Good “systems” models are here
  20. 20. • Advocacy • Marriage / Intimate Partner Commitment • Education & Work Skills • Social / Emotional Intelligence Skills • Executive Functioning Skills Examples Capabilities
  21. 21. • Bridging Capital • Reciprocity / Giving Back to Community • Built & Natural Environment Examples Attachment
  22. 22. • Space for Cultural / Spiritual Expression • Rhythm / Ritual / Engagement with Others Examples Community
  23. 23. Model Community Currently modeled To Be Developed Population by… • Age • Economic strata ACEs Bonding (social) capital Protective Factors Local economic engine Bridging capital Core Model Structure
  24. 24. Age classes* • Current age classes are… • Work? *deaths and migration not shown 0-4 5-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+
  25. 25. ACEs As the population ages… • ACEs first accumulate (in childhood years) • Then move up to next age category
  26. 26. ACE incidence Calculate current incidence rate Increases in risk factors will change incidence Risk factors • ACE Prevalence in adult population • Income deficiency • Other Increases in protective factors will reduce incidence Protective factors • Bonding Capital • Bridging Capital • Other
  27. 27. Economic strata • 3D icon indicates multiple strata • Model currently assumes 2 strata • How do / should communities classify to be useful? INCOME <200% Federal Poverty Level?
  28. 28. Community Muscle • Erodes as ACEs in adult population increases • ACEs in adult population can decrease effectiveness of investments in community muscle • What does investing in community muscle look like? • How does it work?
  29. 29. Bridging Capital • What generates it? What does investing in bridging capital look like? • How does it erode?
  30. 30. Protective Factors • What are the most important ones? • How might you define resilience as one factor or a combination of factors? • Advocacy • Marriage / Intimate Partner Commitment • Education & Work Skills • Social / Emotional Intelligence Skills • Executive Functioning Skills
  31. 31. Protective Capabilities/Factors – When built? 0-4 5-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Advocacy Marriage / Intimate Partner Commitment Education & Work Skills Social / Emotional Intelligence Skills Executive Functioning Skills None? Some? A lot?
  32. 32. Chris Soderquist Pontifex Consulting PO Box 64 Hanover, NH 03755 (603) 276-0203 chris@findinghighleverage.com findinghighleverage.com Systems Thinking Resources An Introduction to Systems Thinking 
 with iThink Author: Barry Richmond Publisher: isee systems Thinking in Systems: A Primer Author: Donella Meadows Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing Company (2008) Finding Leverage Chris Soderquist Producer: Banyan Communications Sponsor: The National Association of Chronic Disease Directors https://vimeo.com/122034667 There are additional videos and articles on my resources page

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