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Improving the Response to Acute Deterioration in COVID-19 and Beyond

  1. Dr Guy Glover Consultant in Critical Care Guys and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust Improving the Response to Acute Deterioration in Covid-19 and Beyond
  2. Declarations • Consulting / speaker fees from Sedana Medical / BD • No conflicts relevant to this talk
  3. Background – the majority of acute deterioration in hospital may be preventable • 70% of patients have abnormal physiology before cardiac arrest or unplanned ICU admission • There is an opportunity to identify earlier and intervene to prevent deterioration Time Stable Kause et al Resuscitation 2004; 62: 275–282 Deteriorating Critical
  4. Population level • All hospital inpatients • ‘Track and Trigger’ system to screen for acute deterioration Subgroup of at-risk patients • Defined by high NEWS / clinical concern • Protocolised escalation to local team +/- CCOT Individual patient • Higher intensity monitoring and interventions • Apply care bundles • Stratify risk • Critical Care admission if required However, identifying the at-risk patient is challenging
  5. NEWS2 – a clinical decision support tool which correlates with adverse outcomes in hospital Smith GB et al. Resuscitation 2013; 84:465-70
  6. Acutely Ill Patient in Hospital Steering Group Report Compliance to observation standards NB final ward of hospital admission Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Total Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Alan Apley AMS 81% 71% 69% 74% 78% 81% 81% 81% 82% 75% 80% 80% 78% 63 69 68 64 61 75 78 75 70 GI Page (STH) 87% 76% 68% 72% 74% 73% 73% 73% 82% 76% 80% 81% 76% 85 97 105 99 97 93 96 93 100 GI Northumberland (STH) 86% 78% 72% 73% 74% 74% 74% 74% 84% 77% 79% 82% 77% 100 97 94 107 103 112 116 112 111 Nightingale 84% 72% 66% 71% 68% 74% 74% 74% 73% 68% 73% 78% 73% 59 83 86 89 81 84 87 84 76 Aston Key 87% 78% 75% 81% 78% 77% 77% 77% 81% 76% 80% 80% 79% 91 95 106 91 69 63 65 63 79 Florence Florence 84% 77% 72% 72% 75% 77% 77% 77% 87% 82% 80% 86% 79% 72 82 92 84 65 71 73 71 70 Patience Patience 85% 73% 71% 73% 77% 75% 75% 75% 76% 78% 79% 77% 76% 67 64 56 71 71 71 73 71 73 Richard Bright Richard Bright 90% 82% 77% 82% 83% 85% 85% 85% 86% 82% 86% 89% 84% 64 93 93 95 83 75 77 75 82 Acute Assessment Unit 97% 84% 75% 75% 75% 66% 69% 72% 75% 78% 0 4 5 4 6 7 7 7 6 Acute Admissions Acute Admissions 88% 77% 71% 78% 78% 78% 78% 78% 85% 78% 82% 87% 80% 91 97 111 101 93 96 99 96 95 Albert Albert 85% 75% 70% 77% 74% 77% 77% 77% 78% 76% 79% 82% 77% 129 126 124 130 115 125 129 125 119 Alexandra Alexandra 83% 76% 70% 76% 76% 80% 80% 80% 81% 73% 72% 77% 77% 122 138 133 130 123 111 115 111 84 Anne Anne 83% 76% 71% 73% 73% 77% 77% 77% 79% 72% 75% 77% 76% 123 126 134 135 139 129 133 129 133 Evan Jones (EMU) inc Frailty Evan Jones (EMU) inc Frailty 93% 84% 79% 86% 83% 84% 84% 84% 85% 84% 36 46 50 49 43 43 45 43 6 Clinical Decision Unit 86% 86% 87% 94% 88% 30 Henry Henry 82% 75% 68% 71% 72% 74% 74% 74% 77% 67% 71% 76% 74% 125 132 124 132 125 118 122 118 127 Hillyers Hillyers 78% 76% 70% 76% 74% 76% 76% 76% 83% 79% 80% 81% 77% 84 86 76 76 74 84 87 84 78 Mark SU Mark SU 88% 80% 72% 79% 79% 79% 79% 79% 76% 71% 77% 79% 78% 110 116 134 130 125 118 122 118 120 William Gull (STH) William Gull (STH) 75% 67% 63% 70% 68% 70% 70% 70% 76% 70% 75% 77% 71% 135 129 137 133 121 117 121 117 119 Becket Becket 83% 77% 67% 74% 76% 75% 75% 75% 78% 74% 75% 81% 76% 76 68 88 88 88 90 94 90 73 Coronary Care Unit Coronary Care Unit 88% #### 79% - 75% 71% 71% 71% 53% 84% 79% 74% 2 0 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 Doulton Doulton 82% 75% 69% 78% 73% 80% 80% 80% 83% 79% 82% 83% 79% 114 124 100 92 98 96 99 96 117 Luke (STH) Luke (STH) 90% 80% 78% 86% 84% 83% 83% 83% 89% 84% 83% 83% 84% 45 46 55 60 51 53 55 53 51 Luke HDU Luke HDU 94% 82% 59% 79% 82% 75% 75% 75% 92% 90% 78% 82% 80% 2 7 4 1 1 2 2 2 1 Sarah Swift - Vascular Sarah Swift - Vascular 89% 80% 75% 81% 80% 81% 81% 81% 85% 80% 81% 85% 82% 119 128 121 122 120 130 134 130 127 Stephen Stephen 84% 74% 72% 76% 77% 79% 79% 79% 78% 75% 81% 79% 78% 125 118 128 135 136 137 142 137 124 Blundell Ward (ENT) Guys Blundell Ward (ENT) Guys 85% 78% 73% 79% 74% 79% 79% 79% 81% 77% 78% 79% 78% 77 82 82 85 74 77 79 77 75 Dorcas Dorcas 69% 69% 63% 78% 63% 83% 83% 83% 90% 83% 84% 89% 84% 7 3 3 4 3 5 6 5 13 Esther Esther 91% 80% 74% 78% 76% 79% 79% 79% 81% 73% 77% 81% 79% 59 71 82 90 83 89 92 89 74 Hedley Atkins Hedley Atkins 84% 77% 70% 70% 72% 76% 76% 76% 75% 72% 72% 75% 74% 114 118 135 115 116 129 133 129 137 Samaritan Samaritan 82% 72% 68% 72% 70% 75% 75% 75% 76% 75% 76% 80% 75% 106 102 100 100 107 113 117 113 101 George Perkins George Perkins 87% 76% 70% 74% 73% 73% 73% 73% 75% 69% 75% 70% 74% 93 84 99 96 95 105 109 105 98 Queen Queen 88% 81% 77% 78% 85% 86% 86% 86% 87% 83% 87% 90% 85% 57 49 49 52 47 50 51 50 50 Somerset 87% 79% 71% 76% 75% 77% 77% 77% 80% 77% 79% 79% 78% 54 63 53 60 59 57 59 57 50 Sarah Sarah 89% 82% 73% 77% 82% 80% 80% 80% 83% 78% 81% 86% 81% 48 64 66 60 50 67 69 67 77 Gynaecology Ward Gynaecology Ward 96% 84% 79% 85% 84% 84% 84% 84% 85% 85% 88% 92% 86% 81 94 111 97 85 91 94 91 92 Total 85% 77% 71% 76% 76% 78% 78% 78% 80% 76% 79% 81% 78% #### #### #### #### #### #### #### #### #### Directorate Ward Gastrointestinal Medicine and Surgery Transplant,Renal and Urology Womens Avg daily number of electronic NEWS % with all 6 parameters completed and within appropriate timeframe Surgery Cardiovascular Services Oncology and Haematology Acute Medicine The GSTT QI program - a process and data driven approach Acutely Ill Patient in Hospital Steering Group Report Nov-18 Days with high NEWS - total score >=5 or single parameter = 3 NB final ward of admission Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Avg Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Total Alan Apley AMS 3.0 3.8 3.6 2.9 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.6 92 117 100 91 44 57 59 82 74 85 74 67 942 GI Page (STH) 2.1 2.7 3.7 3.1 2.1 2.8 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.4 3.5 4.0 2.8 66 84 104 95 64 86 65 83 85 73 107 121 1033 GI Northumberland (STH) 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.4 1.4 2.4 3.9 5.6 4.8 2.9 86 66 59 74 60 75 73 42 75 117 173 145 1045 Nightingale 1.1 3.2 3.1 3.3 1.3 2.2 1.8 2.5 1.7 4.3 3.2 2.7 2.5 33 98 87 101 40 68 53 79 54 128 99 80 920 Aston Key 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.6 2.6 1.6 55 53 51 59 38 29 43 40 42 60 50 77 597 Florence Florence 1.8 1.7 2.7 3.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.5 0.6 1.5 2.1 1.8 55 52 76 104 47 50 52 38 47 18 45 63 647 Patience Patience 2.5 2.5 2.1 3.2 2.2 3.2 2.9 3.5 3.7 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.8 76 78 60 98 67 99 86 108 115 64 79 84 1014 Richard Bright Richard Bright 1.3 2.9 2.2 2.4 1.8 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.8 2.5 1.9 2.2 1.8 40 91 61 74 53 24 47 47 25 74 58 66 660 Acute Assessment Unit 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 6 9 1 5 9 5 7 7 3 6 7 65 Acute Admissions Acute Admissions 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.5 3.4 5.2 3.3 4.6 4.0 4.8 3.9 3.9 4.4 154 158 146 138 103 162 99 143 124 143 122 118 1610 Albert Albert 5.5 3.9 5.3 4.3 3.8 4.0 5.4 4.6 4.8 3.2 3.1 3.0 4.2 171 122 148 134 114 123 161 143 148 96 95 89 1544 Alexandra Alexandra 3.5 3.1 3.4 4.2 3.4 2.5 2.2 2.4 1.6 3.8 4.4 4.2 3.2 110 97 96 129 101 78 66 74 51 115 136 125 1178 Anne Anne 4.9 4.3 5.1 5.8 3.9 4.2 4.1 4.6 4.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 4.6 153 133 144 180 117 130 122 143 144 116 143 160 1685 Evan Jones (EMU) inc Frailty Evan Jones (EMU) inc Frailty 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 19 31 33 21 21 22 26 13 5 0 0 0 191 Clinical Decision Unit 0.6 0.8 0.1 18 25 43 Henry Henry 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.8 4.3 3.8 2.6 2.1 2.4 3.7 5.1 4.3 3.7 113 119 105 150 129 119 78 66 75 111 159 130 1354 Hillyers Hillyers 3.7 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.0 1.5 1.3 3.0 2.7 2.8 114 111 83 81 77 90 100 94 46 38 92 80 1006 Mark SU Mark SU 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.8 2.4 3.2 2.9 3.8 2.5 2.0 2.5 86 77 72 63 43 55 73 99 90 115 76 60 909 William Gull (STH) William Gull (STH) 9.9 8.2 8.3 7.9 9.4 6.5 6.9 5.6 5.7 4.9 4.7 6.0 7.0 307 255 231 244 282 202 206 174 178 147 145 181 2552 Becket Becket 3.0 2.1 3.4 3.6 3.6 4.4 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.5 2.8 3.3 92 65 94 111 108 135 93 103 103 92 110 84 1190 Coronary Care Unit Coronary Care Unit 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 7 1 3 8 3 3 1 14 12 1 5 0 58 Doulton Doulton 3.2 3.6 3.6 2.7 3.1 1.8 2.5 3.0 4.0 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.9 100 111 100 85 93 55 76 93 124 65 71 83 1056 Luke (STH) Luke (STH) 0.6 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.0 19 50 28 40 29 46 44 28 18 21 14 22 359 Luke HDU Luke HDU 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1 1 7 2 3 0 3 0 2 1 2 4 26 Sarah Swift - Vascular Sarah Swift - Vascular 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.3 1.3 1.5 2.4 2.0 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 100 90 79 82 68 40 45 75 62 49 63 62 815 Stephen Stephen 5.3 5.5 6.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 3.9 6.3 6.6 5.2 4.0 5.5 5.4 163 172 169 162 162 174 117 194 205 157 123 166 1964 Blundell Ward (ENT) Guys Blundell Ward (ENT) Guys 1.2 1.1 1.4 0.9 2.2 1.7 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.4 2.6 1.7 1.7 37 34 40 29 66 52 75 64 58 43 81 52 631 Dorcas Dorcas 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 3.4 4.5 3.7 1.3 18 11 7 4 12 14 13 15 19 103 141 112 469 Esther Esther 0.6 1.9 1.9 2.4 3.1 2.1 3.0 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.6 2.1 18 59 53 74 94 65 90 56 59 69 69 78 784 Hedley Atkins Hedley Atkins 5.3 5.9 6.9 7.1 6.5 6.6 6.3 5.7 6.9 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.3 164 182 192 221 194 206 190 176 215 179 190 193 2302 Samaritan Samaritan 4.1 5.4 6.1 4.4 3.9 4.2 6.1 4.6 3.6 3.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 127 168 172 135 118 130 183 144 112 115 149 143 1696 George Perkins George Perkins 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.5 1.6 3.2 1.9 42 49 50 53 49 65 41 52 59 75 51 95 681 Queen Queen 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 18 17 14 25 23 10 15 13 20 7 14 10 186 Somerset 1.2 2.0 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 36 62 35 54 45 40 39 51 34 34 43 38 511 Sarah Sarah 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.3 23 52 50 38 30 35 38 39 55 37 31 41 469 Gynaecology Ward Gynaecology Ward 1.6 1.7 3.1 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.9 51 52 88 49 38 53 54 50 67 73 67 65 707 Total 89 94 102 97 85 84 84 85 84 87 94 98 90 2746 2924 2846 3009 2540 2601 2531 2642 2609 2624 2901 2926 32899 Surgery Womens Number of high NEWS days Gastrointestinal Medicine and Surgery Transplant,Renal and Urology Acute Medicine Cardiovascular Services Mean patients per day with high NEWS Directorate Ward Oncology and Haematology
  7. Analysis - compliance with the observation standard decreases as acuity increases
  8. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 450 480 510 540 570 600 630 660 690 720 750 780 810 840 870 + cumulative % original NEWS time between consecutive measurements (mins) original NEWS score = 5 or 6 0000hrs - 0800hrs 0800hrs - 1200hrs 1200hrs - 2000hrs 2000hrs - 0000hrs Standard = 1 hr (+ 15 mins tolerance) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 450 480 510 540 570 600 630 660 690 720 750 780 810 840 870 + cumulative % original NEWS time between consecutive measurements (mins) original NEWS score between 1 and 4 0000hrs - 0800hrs 0800hrs - 1200hrs 1200hrs - 2000hrs 2000hrs - 0000hrs Standard = 6hrs (+ 30 mins tolerance) Low acuity patients receive routine observations with gaps in the afternoon and overnight High acuity patients receive increased observations but it is difficult to deliver 1hourly on a ward
  9. Mapping patient pathways revealed delays in patient pathways -4 rs 4-5 hrs 5-6 hrs 6-12 hrs 12-24 hrs 24+ hrs NEWS to CRT visit -4 rs 4-5 hrs 5-6 hrs 6-12 hrs 12-24 hrs 24+ hrs dmit to CC admission 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 hr 2 hrs 3 hrs 4 hrs 5 hrs 6 hrs 12 hrs 24hrs >24 hrs Proportion of patients who waited less than high NEWS to admit CC high NEWS to CRT CRT to decision to admit decision to admit to CC admission
  10. Whebell S et al. Critical Care 2021
  11. The Acute Deterioration dashboard now allows us to track process and outcome metrics in near real time…
  12. Triangulating data with qualitative observations AIP Performance Report metrics Learning from Adverse Events Incident reporting Behavioural Insights
  13. Understanding process, behaviours and barriers, then co-creating new and improved ways of working
  14. Pivoting our acute deterioration analytics to optimise the escalation pathway in Covid-19
  15. Case by case review of unplanned ICU admissions 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 14-Jan 13-Mar 17-Mar 21-Mar 25-Mar 29-Mar 02-Apr 06-Apr 10-Apr 14-Apr 18-Apr 23-Apr 02-May 28-May 06-Jun Level1 Ward ED 0 5 10 15 20 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Level1 Ward ED
  16. NEWS2 – significantly weighted towards disturbance in RR, HR and SBP, with only a binary grading for oxygen Smith GB et al. Resuscitation 2013; 84:465-70
  17. Royal College of Physicians, 2020
  18. The ROX index • ROX index (SpO2 / FiO2) > 4.8 at 12hrs predicts need for intubation RR • We had previously shown that the delta-ROX could predict the need for critical care admission for patients on high flow oxygen during an CCOT pilot Roca O, Journal of Critical Care 2016; 35: 200–205 Price E, Intensive Care Society, 2018
  19. Hypothesis: The ROX index may help identify patients at risk of deterioration earlier than NEWS2 • In Covid-19 there may be relatively little cardiovascular disturbance and tachypnoea may be a late sign. In NEWS2 supplemental oxygen is only a binary grading system. Therefore, NEWS2 could be low despite significant hypoxaemic respiratory failure. • RR 20 • SpO2 92% • Non-rebreath mask O2 • SBP 120mmHg • HR 90bpm • Alert NEWS2 = 3 but ROX = 5.9
  20. Device % O2 Flow l/min Assumed % O2 if no % O2 selected Nasal cannula 1 24 Nasal cannula 2 28 Nasal cannula 3 32 Nasal cannula 4 36 Simple mask 1 24 Simple mask 2 28 Simple mask 3 32 Simple mask 4 36 Simple mask 5 40 Simple mask 6 44 Simple mask 7 48 Simple mask 8 52 Simple mask 9 56 Simple mask >=10 60 Venturi 24 2 Venturi 28 4 Venturi 35 8 Venturi 40 10 Venturi 60 12 NIV OR CPAP 1 24 NIV OR CPAP 2 26 NIV OR CPAP 3 28 NIV OR CPAP 4 30 NIV OR CPAP 5 32 NIV OR CPAP 6 34 NIV OR CPAP 7 36 NIV OR CPAP 8 38 NIV OR CPAP 9 40 NIV OR CPAP >=10 44 Humidified 28 Humidified 35 Humidified 40 Humidified 60 Tracheostomy mask Treat as per simple face mask HFNC Continuous % O2 values from 21 - 100 Continuous flow rate values from 0 - 60 100% Reservoir Mask 15l/min 15 80 FiO2 is a key determinant, yet can only be estimated on low flow oxygen
  21. Last recorded ROX ([SpO2/FiO2]/RR) prior to unplanned CC admission [96/0.4]/20 [90/0.6]/22
  22. 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 29 31 33 LowestROX vs outcome no unplanned event unplanned event 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 HighestNEWS vs outcome no unplanned event unplanned event
  23. Physiological antecedents to cardiac arrest, crit care admission or death on ward (n = 186) • 24 hours preceding the unplanned event • FiO2 inflects approx. 10 hours before • RR does not increase until approx. 5 hours before • Little CVS disturbance or delirium Ø Can use to predict how EWS will function
  24. Pimentel M et al. Resuscitation 2020;156:99-106 Covid-19 Other viral pneumonias
  25. The ROX index has greater predictive validity than NEWS2 for deterioration and may trigger up to 4 hours earlier NEWS2 AUROC 0.815 ROX AUROC 0.848 Prower et al, eClinical Medicine 2020
  26. Now incorporated as a parallel early warning score at GSTT, pending further validation
  27. Sum litres of oxygen OxygenLiterVAL OxygenLiterVAL ward re-matched HFNC 0.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 11 15 Grand Total Acute Admissions 5 2 4 6 17 Albert 4 4 Anne 1 2 3 Aston Key 2 4 6 Becket 1 1 Dorcas 2 2 3 7 Doulton 1 1 Edward Ward 2 2 3 8 11 26 Esther 1 2 3 Gastro-Intestinal Lab 8 8 George Perkins 1 8 9 GI Northumberland 8 3 4 15 GI Page 4 15 19 Gynaecology Ward 4 4 Hedley Atkins 1 4 5 Henry 0.5 0.5 Howard 2 2 Mark SU 2 5 7 Nightingale 4 4 Patience 2 2 Samaritan 2 3 4 9 Sarah Swift (Vascular) 6 11 15 32 Somerset (Surgery) 1 1 Stephen 2 2 Victoria High Dependency 1 1 William Gull (STH) 1 4 5 Grand Total 0.5 20 66 12 32 5 6 22 30 193.5 Snap shot at 00:00 22/11/20 Finally, we used the data to heat-map oxygen utilisation, guiding patient allocation and stewardship of resources
  28. Next steps • Integration of the benefits of a graded FiO2 system, with the benefits of a standardised NEWS • Validation in other cohorts of patients with hypoxic respiratory failure and in multi-centre studies, followed by prospective evaluation of benefit • Post-pandemic returning to our original mission to improve consistency and quality in the acute deterioration pathway, including sepsis and AKI
  29. Lessons learnt • Digital healthcare has created the substrate for data-driven clinical care though we remain at an early stage • The ability to measure is a pre-requisite for both understanding, and for improvement, though change does not necessarily automatically follow • Improving the response to acute deterioration requires an optimal detection of deterioration, based on a clear understanding of the disease trajectory - Covid-19 has been a unique opportunity to manage a homogenous disease and requires its own approach • A simple index of respiratory variables may outperform existing early warning scores, though further validation is required • Collaborative networks with common data and data sharing are required to rapidly develop and test future predictive models
  30. Thank you guy.glover@gstt.nhs.uk Thank you guy.glover@gstt.nhs.uk +
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