3. Ashiana Housing – Investment Snapshot
(as on August 29, 2012)
Recommendation :- BUY
Accumulation Range :- 120-150
• Invest 60% of Investment allocation at the
current Price.
• Have enough Cash to average down over the
next 6 Months Time-frame.
Current Market Price – Rs. 156
Bloomberg / Reuters Code – ASFI IN/ AHFN.BO
BSE / NSE Code – 523716 / ASHIANA
Mkt Cap (INR BN / USD Mn) – 2.28 / 41.01
[1 USD – Rs. 55.60]
Total Equity Shares [Mn]– 18.6
Face Value – Rs. 10
52 Week High / Low – Rs. 185 / Rs. 123
Promoter’s Holding – 69.02 %
Institutional Holding – 0.01 %
Ashiana Housing has been established in the Real Estate
development Industry for the past 26 years, starting from
1986. It has been a North-Indian developer with major
projects in the state of Rajasthan.
When the Industry slowed down in 2009 and other
developers extended their development schedule, Ashiana
pumped in Capital and made sure that all its projects were
delivered on time which shows the commitment of the
Management and the Brand credibility which has been built.
Ashiana Housing pioneered into retirement housing by
launching a retirement resort in Bhiwadi in 2004. The
project was successfully completed and delivered in 2007
which has made the company to look for similar
opportunities elsewhere in the country.
Ashiana Housing has received several accolades over these
years. It has been chosen as the “Forbes-Best under a Billion
company” for 2 times in a row. Company has also bagged
several awards as the Best Real Estate Project for its Aangan
and Woodlands Project.
Recommendation :- BUY
Accumulation Range :- 120-150
• Invest 60% of Investment allocation at the
current Price.
• Have enough Cash to average down over the
next 6 Months Time-frame.
Current Market Price – Rs. 156
Bloomberg / Reuters Code – ASFI IN/ AHFN.BO
BSE / NSE Code – 523716 / ASHIANA
Mkt Cap (INR BN / USD Mn) – 2.28 / 41.01
[1 USD – Rs. 55.60]
Total Equity Shares [Mn]– 18.6
Face Value – Rs. 10
52 Week High / Low – Rs. 185 / Rs. 123
Promoter’s Holding – 69.02 %
Institutional Holding – 0.01 %
Ashiana Housing has been established in the Real Estate
development Industry for the past 26 years, starting from
1986. It has been a North-Indian developer with major
projects in the state of Rajasthan.
When the Industry slowed down in 2009 and other
developers extended their development schedule, Ashiana
pumped in Capital and made sure that all its projects were
delivered on time which shows the commitment of the
Management and the Brand credibility which has been built.
Ashiana Housing pioneered into retirement housing by
launching a retirement resort in Bhiwadi in 2004. The
project was successfully completed and delivered in 2007
which has made the company to look for similar
opportunities elsewhere in the country.
Ashiana Housing has received several accolades over these
years. It has been chosen as the “Forbes-Best under a Billion
company” for 2 times in a row. Company has also bagged
several awards as the Best Real Estate Project for its Aangan
and Woodlands Project.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
4. Key Investment Highlights
Robust Business Model – Ashiana Housing has a good asset light business model. Company doesn’t buy and
store land for future development purposes. It gets into tie-up with Land owners (or) creates a JV with them
to develop and sell the land in the next 3 years. Even in places where it buys Lands, it would be with a vision
to develop it within the next 5-7 years. Company also with its inherent strengths continues to generate the
best Margins across the industry.
Huge Growth Opportunity – Ashiana Housing focuses on Mid-Income Housing projects in Tier-2 & 3 towns
where there is real Housing demand and the number of quality developers is lower. With Ashiana’s
experience and brand name, the opportunity to grow is Huge. It can be seen from the company’s growth in
the past 10 Years. Company’s revenue and PAT has grown by over 11X and 19X in the past 10 years.
Healthy Accounting Practices – Being in a sector which is mired by Corporate Governance issues, Ashiana
Housing has good accounting policies and strong disclosures which helps Investors to gauge its operational
performance much better. Company has also changed its accounting methodology from “Percentage of
completion basis” to “Contract Completion” which is a much more straight forward way of accounting. This
gives us tremendous confidence in the intentions of the company where we are Minority Shareholders.
Strong Financial Management – In a sector which went irrational and bought land at exorbitant prices,
Ashiana Housing’s management has been prudent in managing its finances well. It can be seen from the
Debt free balance sheet which it has, compared with a Highly leveraged balance sheet of its peers. Also all
the projects are expected to maintain positive cash flow and the company has a very strong advances from
customers which helps in managing its finances well. It also has one of the shortest construction cycle and
working capital cycle in the Industry which helps it in having better margins.
Attractive Valuations – Ashiana Housing is currently quoting at a Market Capitalization of around 300 Cr Rs
while its Cash flow from operations over the past year has been over 100 Cr Rs. Even in terms of its Price/
Book value, the stock is quoting at just over 1.2X which we think is very cheap considering business quality.
Robust Business Model – Ashiana Housing has a good asset light business model. Company doesn’t buy and
store land for future development purposes. It gets into tie-up with Land owners (or) creates a JV with them
to develop and sell the land in the next 3 years. Even in places where it buys Lands, it would be with a vision
to develop it within the next 5-7 years. Company also with its inherent strengths continues to generate the
best Margins across the industry.
Huge Growth Opportunity – Ashiana Housing focuses on Mid-Income Housing projects in Tier-2 & 3 towns
where there is real Housing demand and the number of quality developers is lower. With Ashiana’s
experience and brand name, the opportunity to grow is Huge. It can be seen from the company’s growth in
the past 10 Years. Company’s revenue and PAT has grown by over 11X and 19X in the past 10 years.
Healthy Accounting Practices – Being in a sector which is mired by Corporate Governance issues, Ashiana
Housing has good accounting policies and strong disclosures which helps Investors to gauge its operational
performance much better. Company has also changed its accounting methodology from “Percentage of
completion basis” to “Contract Completion” which is a much more straight forward way of accounting. This
gives us tremendous confidence in the intentions of the company where we are Minority Shareholders.
Strong Financial Management – In a sector which went irrational and bought land at exorbitant prices,
Ashiana Housing’s management has been prudent in managing its finances well. It can be seen from the
Debt free balance sheet which it has, compared with a Highly leveraged balance sheet of its peers. Also all
the projects are expected to maintain positive cash flow and the company has a very strong advances from
customers which helps in managing its finances well. It also has one of the shortest construction cycle and
working capital cycle in the Industry which helps it in having better margins.
Attractive Valuations – Ashiana Housing is currently quoting at a Market Capitalization of around 300 Cr Rs
while its Cash flow from operations over the past year has been over 100 Cr Rs. Even in terms of its Price/
Book value, the stock is quoting at just over 1.2X which we think is very cheap considering business quality.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
5. Industry Opportunity & Potential
- An Overview
Industry Opportunity & Potential
- An Overview
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6. Demand for Housing
• India is terribly short of Quality housing units. There is strong pent-up demand for Housing because of the
sheer lack of availability of good residential units in the country.
• In addition to the real end user demand for Housing, there is also a good Investment demand considering
the continuous price appreciation over the past decade. Hence Investors think of Housing as a very stable
form of Investment where they can park their surplus money.
• There are very strong Structural trends which are driving the demand for Quality Housing units. A few of
the trends would be increasing Urbanization, Nuclearization of Families, Improved Affordability, Easier
Financing, Organized Real Estate Industry etc.
• The Biggest demand for Housing is coming from the “Bottom of the Pyramid” which has been denied of a
Quality living space. There is a shortage of over 3 Cr Homes in this space.
Housing Shortage Million
Units
Economically Weaker
Section
21.78
Low Income Group 2.89
Middle Income Group 0.04
High Income Group 0.01
Nuclearization
• India is terribly short of Quality housing units. There is strong pent-up demand for Housing because of the
sheer lack of availability of good residential units in the country.
• In addition to the real end user demand for Housing, there is also a good Investment demand considering
the continuous price appreciation over the past decade. Hence Investors think of Housing as a very stable
form of Investment where they can park their surplus money.
• There are very strong Structural trends which are driving the demand for Quality Housing units. A few of
the trends would be increasing Urbanization, Nuclearization of Families, Improved Affordability, Easier
Financing, Organized Real Estate Industry etc.
• The Biggest demand for Housing is coming from the “Bottom of the Pyramid” which has been denied of a
Quality living space. There is a shortage of over 3 Cr Homes in this space.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
7. Mid-Income Housing Opportunity
• India’s increasing urbanization is happening in an unorganized manner rapidly, which is leading to terrible
Housing conditions for the Urban Poor and Middle class.
• With over 50% of India’s population expected to live in Cities over the next 2 decades, the Quantum of new
Housing required is humongous. Especially there is a strong need for Housing projects in the Middle-Income
segment in the Tier-2 and 3 cities of India.
• During the Real estate boom, most developers where focusing on the top end of the market which had
higher margins and sales were easy. But presently in a dull Macro-economic environment, developers have
started focusing on the lower segment where there is real user demand.
• Just the transfer from Slums and other bad Housing conditions to a decent living space itself is a huge
opportunity for the Real estate developers.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
• India’s increasing urbanization is happening in an unorganized manner rapidly, which is leading to terrible
Housing conditions for the Urban Poor and Middle class.
• With over 50% of India’s population expected to live in Cities over the next 2 decades, the Quantum of new
Housing required is humongous. Especially there is a strong need for Housing projects in the Middle-Income
segment in the Tier-2 and 3 cities of India.
• During the Real estate boom, most developers where focusing on the top end of the market which had
higher margins and sales were easy. But presently in a dull Macro-economic environment, developers have
started focusing on the lower segment where there is real user demand.
• Just the transfer from Slums and other bad Housing conditions to a decent living space itself is a huge
opportunity for the Real estate developers.
8. Increasing Affordability
• Affordability of Housing has improved tremendously with the strong growth in Annual Income of
customers. Affordability measured with Property cost and Annual Income is actually the best in 2012 when
compared with the previous 17 Years.
• Along with the Income growth, other major reason driving sales of Housing units – is the Improved
financing for new Homes. There is attractive tax incentives behind Home loans and they are one of the
cheapest sources of retail credit in India. This is benefiting Housing sales to a large extent.
• Even in the improved scenario, the scope for higher Mortgage penetration is higher. India is still ranks lower
in Mortgage/ GDP ratio. With Interest rates expected to come down structurally over a period of time, the
quantum of Home loans disbursed will continue to inch higher.
• Affordability of Housing has improved tremendously with the strong growth in Annual Income of
customers. Affordability measured with Property cost and Annual Income is actually the best in 2012 when
compared with the previous 17 Years.
• Along with the Income growth, other major reason driving sales of Housing units – is the Improved
financing for new Homes. There is attractive tax incentives behind Home loans and they are one of the
cheapest sources of retail credit in India. This is benefiting Housing sales to a large extent.
• Even in the improved scenario, the scope for higher Mortgage penetration is higher. India is still ranks lower
in Mortgage/ GDP ratio. With Interest rates expected to come down structurally over a period of time, the
quantum of Home loans disbursed will continue to inch higher.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
9. Real Estate Industry Problems
• Indian Real estate industry has been hit hard over the past 4 years, since the Global economic downturn.
Their Share prices have been hit harder in the bourses which can be seen from the Graphs. All the major
Real estate shares have corrected by over 80% since their 2008 highs.
• Indian Real estate companies had a boom time during the 2004-07 period when their profitability was huge
and they were the darlings of the stock markets. One of the major reason for high profitability had been
leveraged land buys which they were able to sell off at even higher levels.
• But once the market started its downturn, most of these companies got hit because they had diversified
into several businesses, leveraged Balance sheets, exorbitant land buys, poor reputation etc. All these had
a severe destruction effect on their share prices.
• Most of the companies have reported losses, Working capital crunch etc. Even now, most continue to
suffer from High construction costs, increased cost of capital etc.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
• Indian Real estate industry has been hit hard over the past 4 years, since the Global economic downturn.
Their Share prices have been hit harder in the bourses which can be seen from the Graphs. All the major
Real estate shares have corrected by over 80% since their 2008 highs.
• Indian Real estate companies had a boom time during the 2004-07 period when their profitability was huge
and they were the darlings of the stock markets. One of the major reason for high profitability had been
leveraged land buys which they were able to sell off at even higher levels.
• But once the market started its downturn, most of these companies got hit because they had diversified
into several businesses, leveraged Balance sheets, exorbitant land buys, poor reputation etc. All these had
a severe destruction effect on their share prices.
• Most of the companies have reported losses, Working capital crunch etc. Even now, most continue to
suffer from High construction costs, increased cost of capital etc.
10. Ashiana Housing – Business Overview
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11. Key Highlights
Ashiana Housing has demonstrated
strong project execution with Equivalent
Area constructed growing at a 22% CAGR
for the past 10 years. Ashiana Housing
constructed over 14.5 Lakh Sq.ft in FY-12.
Execution Capabilities
Ashiana Housing has grown its net
worth by 22X in the past 10 years
which is >36% CAGR.
With Ashiana Housing expected to
be present in 9 Cities by 2015, we
expect a strong growth rate.
Robust Growth
Ashiana Housing has a good
Management with 3-Family
members from the next generation
aiming to take the business to newer
heights in the coming years.
Ashiana Housing also aims to
inculcate the best practices in the
Industry while growing its PAT.
Management Quality
Ashiana
Housing
Ashiana Housing has grown its net
worth by 22X in the past 10 years
which is >36% CAGR.
With Ashiana Housing expected to
be present in 9 Cities by 2015, we
expect a strong growth rate.
Ashiana Housing has a very strong Product
oriented development approach which
helps it to satisfy its customers
requirements and aspirations.
Ashiana Housing also has been a pioneer
and gained a lot of experience in the
concept of Retirement Housing which has
a huge potential.
Niche Product Profile
With Strong In-House capabilities and
good Financial management, Ashiana
Housing continues to generate over 38%
EBIDTA margins and >20% PAT margins.
This High Margin structure supported
with Solid Business Fundamentals also
enables it to deploy Capital at attractive
return ratios.
Strong Return Ratios
Ashiana Housing has a good
Management with 3-Family
members from the next generation
aiming to take the business to newer
heights in the coming years.
Ashiana Housing also aims to
inculcate the best practices in the
Industry while growing its PAT.
Ashiana
Housing
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
12. Differentiated Business Model
• Ashiana Housing has a
differentiated Business
model which is the
prime differentiator of
the company.
• They differ in the
processes, right from
land buying to post
sales management.
• All these can be easily
seen from the strong
numbers which the
company continues to
post when compared
to the losses which its
peers are posting.
• Management has
been sticking to this
Business model in both
the Good and Bad
times which gives us
tremendous
confidence .
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
• Ashiana Housing has a
differentiated Business
model which is the
prime differentiator of
the company.
• They differ in the
processes, right from
land buying to post
sales management.
• All these can be easily
seen from the strong
numbers which the
company continues to
post when compared
to the losses which its
peers are posting.
• Management has
been sticking to this
Business model in both
the Good and Bad
times which gives us
tremendous
confidence .
13. Niche Product Range
• Ashiana Housing is a pioneer in Retirement Housing (or) Active Senior living project development. These
projects which essentially are modeled on providing good living conditions for Old people, has a huge
Business potential in the coming years.
• Ashiana’s experience in this space will help it to scale up this business pan-India. With the increasing
number of Old people and social change in treating them, Ashiana Housing definitely has a business which
can be scaled up aggressively and also generates high margins with strong cash flows.
• Ashiana Housing’s main project development business happens in the Middle Income group where the
company has a strong understanding of the customers demand. More specifically it concentrates on Tier-2
and 3 towns to launch these projects.
• Company also has a very product focused development model where they tweak the project according to
varying customers expectations. As most of its customers are real end users, Ashiana focuses more on
satisfying their needs and building a trustable relationship.
• Ashiana Housing is a pioneer in Retirement Housing (or) Active Senior living project development. These
projects which essentially are modeled on providing good living conditions for Old people, has a huge
Business potential in the coming years.
• Ashiana’s experience in this space will help it to scale up this business pan-India. With the increasing
number of Old people and social change in treating them, Ashiana Housing definitely has a business which
can be scaled up aggressively and also generates high margins with strong cash flows.
• Ashiana Housing’s main project development business happens in the Middle Income group where the
company has a strong understanding of the customers demand. More specifically it concentrates on Tier-2
and 3 towns to launch these projects.
• Company also has a very product focused development model where they tweak the project according to
varying customers expectations. As most of its customers are real end users, Ashiana focuses more on
satisfying their needs and building a trustable relationship.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
14. Strong Customer Orientation
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
• This strong customer orientation can be basically validated from two numbers. One is the very high referral
business which has been increasing consistently for Ashiana Housing.
• Other, Ashiana Housing has been one of the star performers in a bad housing market. This can be seen
from the consistent increase in Bookings of Ashiana Housing. All the other companies have shown a sliding
trend in order bookings as few customers trusted them during the downturn.
• Ashiana Housing also makes sure that the company has a strong Facilities management in the apartments
they have built. Though it’s not a highly attractive business, it makes sure that Ashiana Housing generates
goodwill amongst its customers and creates a brand for itself.
15. In-House Capabilities
• Ashiana Housing has very strong
in-house capabilities in
construction, sales and after sales
service of Housing projects.
• Building In-house capabilities is a
major part of its Business model to
generate higher margins when
compared to its peers.
• Company has continuously
strengthened its team to deliver
better than expected results. We
strongly believe that out-sourcing
these would lead to lower brand
value and less control on quality.
• Company also makes sure that they tweak the various processes according to the location, product and the
target customer profile. They continue to gauge the market demand and respond to it immediately as they
control the entire process.
• Ashiana Housing has continued to grow its Equivalent Area Constructed (EAC) over the past several years
which gives a good measurement of the company’s capabilities. Company continues to deliver projects on
time which is a big positive for all its stakeholders.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
• Ashiana Housing has very strong
in-house capabilities in
construction, sales and after sales
service of Housing projects.
• Building In-house capabilities is a
major part of its Business model to
generate higher margins when
compared to its peers.
• Company has continuously
strengthened its team to deliver
better than expected results. We
strongly believe that out-sourcing
these would lead to lower brand
value and less control on quality.
16. Growing Brand Value
• Ashiana Housing has continued to grow its Brand value consistently by delivering on all its promises to
various stakeholders. It has delivered over 117 Lakhs.Sq.ft of Housing on schedule which is commendable.
• During the 2008 downturn when other developers were not sticking to their schedules and delayed
possession due to Internal problems, Ashiana housing made sure that all its customers receive their homes
on time, which speaks volumes about the Management quality.
• Ashiana Housing has been listed in Forbes Asia’s best under a Billion 200 list of companies in two
consecutive years which shows the growth potential of the company.
• With strong brand value and processes, we believe Ashiana Housing will be able to make a mark in the
new cities which it plans to enter over the next few years. In all its previous entries, company has made a
solid mark in terms of its performance.
• In established markets like Jodhpur, Ashiana Housing is able to realize at least 30% higher value than its
peers which shows the respect the brand commands.
Referral BookingsAwards & AccoladesReach
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
• Ashiana Housing has continued to grow its Brand value consistently by delivering on all its promises to
various stakeholders. It has delivered over 117 Lakhs.Sq.ft of Housing on schedule which is commendable.
• During the 2008 downturn when other developers were not sticking to their schedules and delayed
possession due to Internal problems, Ashiana housing made sure that all its customers receive their homes
on time, which speaks volumes about the Management quality.
• Ashiana Housing has been listed in Forbes Asia’s best under a Billion 200 list of companies in two
consecutive years which shows the growth potential of the company.
• With strong brand value and processes, we believe Ashiana Housing will be able to make a mark in the
new cities which it plans to enter over the next few years. In all its previous entries, company has made a
solid mark in terms of its performance.
• In established markets like Jodhpur, Ashiana Housing is able to realize at least 30% higher value than its
peers which shows the respect the brand commands.
18. Historical Performance
• Best analysis of any
company is derived from
the Business snapshot of
the company during the
best and worst phases of
Industry cycle.
• 2005-06 to 2011-12 has
been a roller coaster ride
for the Real estate
industry with huge boom
and bust periods in-
between the frame.
• But none of the
volatility can be seen
from the Revenues or
Profits of Ashiana Housing
which seems to be rising
consistently over the
years. This is the best
validation of Ashiana’s
business quality.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
• Best analysis of any
company is derived from
the Business snapshot of
the company during the
best and worst phases of
Industry cycle.
• 2005-06 to 2011-12 has
been a roller coaster ride
for the Real estate
industry with huge boom
and bust periods in-
between the frame.
• But none of the
volatility can be seen
from the Revenues or
Profits of Ashiana Housing
which seems to be rising
consistently over the
years. This is the best
validation of Ashiana’s
business quality.
19. Superior Financials
• It can be seen form the chart that Ashiana
Housing has the best Return on Equity (ROE)
when compared with all other Real Estate
companies which is a huge positive.
• Ashiana Housing has grown consistently in
the past 10 years which is seen from the 22X
increase in Net worth over the decade.
• Ashiana Housing superior financials is a
result of its differentiated business model
which is capital light and ensures higher
Capital asset turnover.
• Other important reasons for higher ROE
include better Margins, Zero debt balance
sheet, good capital allocation to high ROIC
projects in Tier-2 towns.
• Ashiana Housing is one of the few companies
which manages its Working capital cycle
better by generating strong cash advances
from customers which it uses for current
Work-In-Progress which ensures lower debt
and efficient Capital management.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
• It can be seen form the chart that Ashiana
Housing has the best Return on Equity (ROE)
when compared with all other Real Estate
companies which is a huge positive.
• Ashiana Housing has grown consistently in
the past 10 years which is seen from the 22X
increase in Net worth over the decade.
• Ashiana Housing superior financials is a
result of its differentiated business model
which is capital light and ensures higher
Capital asset turnover.
• Other important reasons for higher ROE
include better Margins, Zero debt balance
sheet, good capital allocation to high ROIC
projects in Tier-2 towns.
• Ashiana Housing is one of the few companies
which manages its Working capital cycle
better by generating strong cash advances
from customers which it uses for current
Work-In-Progress which ensures lower debt
and efficient Capital management.
20. Strong Expected Growth
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
• Ashiana Housing has one of the shortest project cycles in the Real estate sector. Company wants to
compress it further from 30 months currently to 21 months which will ensure better returns.
• Company also has decent Inventory in its existing projects which will get realized at a better value in the
coming months leading to better revenues and good operating cash flow.
21. Good Project Pipeline
• Ashiana Housing has a solid
project pipeline which gives it
strong revenue visibility for the
next 3-5 years.
• Delays because of regulatory
hurdles in launching new
projects has resulted in slightly
lower Area Booked and Area
Constructed projections from
the company.
• Still we believe that Ashiana
Housing will continue to
generate very strong cash from
operations in FY-13 from its
Projects because of Value
increase in its Housing projects.
• Company’s management has a
good track record of achieving
its targets and guidance.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
• Ashiana Housing also has invested in building good developable land properties in the past two years.
These investments will start bearing results over the next 3 years as projects get launched.
• Ashiana Housing has a solid
project pipeline which gives it
strong revenue visibility for the
next 3-5 years.
• Delays because of regulatory
hurdles in launching new
projects has resulted in slightly
lower Area Booked and Area
Constructed projections from
the company.
• Still we believe that Ashiana
Housing will continue to
generate very strong cash from
operations in FY-13 from its
Projects because of Value
increase in its Housing projects.
• Company’s management has a
good track record of achieving
its targets and guidance.
22. Good Corporate Governance
• Ashiana has one of the
cleanest Corporate
Governance records in the
Real estate industry.
• This can easily be ascertained
from the clean accounting
policies which the company
has implemented.
• We find that disclosures and
communication with
Shareholders are at par with
any other MNC company.
• A few reporting parameters
like EAC, Area Booked, Referral
business also helps Investors
judge the Quality of business.
• Company’s cash flow
statement gives us a clear
indication on the business
performance. Company has
generated strong cash flows in
FY-12 which is unnoticed.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
• Ashiana has one of the
cleanest Corporate
Governance records in the
Real estate industry.
• This can easily be ascertained
from the clean accounting
policies which the company
has implemented.
• We find that disclosures and
communication with
Shareholders are at par with
any other MNC company.
• A few reporting parameters
like EAC, Area Booked, Referral
business also helps Investors
judge the Quality of business.
• Company’s cash flow
statement gives us a clear
indication on the business
performance. Company has
generated strong cash flows in
FY-12 which is unnoticed.
23. Management Profile
• Ashiana Housing has a
competent, ambitious and
clean management which is
very important for good
Shareholder performance in
the Long-Run.
• Company’s 3-brothers are all
well educated and have a very
clear vision to take the
company to newer heights in
the next 5 years.
•Ashiana Housing has well
defined roles for all its
promoters which is important
to grow without tussles in a
family business.
• Company while spreading its wings across the nation, needs to attract talent regularly. Good team along
with strong base set over the past 26 years will make sure that the company grows consistently.
• Company has also been building a strong second line of management which is crucial to take the company
to the next league of operations.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
• Ashiana Housing has a
competent, ambitious and
clean management which is
very important for good
Shareholder performance in
the Long-Run.
• Company’s 3-brothers are all
well educated and have a very
clear vision to take the
company to newer heights in
the next 5 years.
•Ashiana Housing has well
defined roles for all its
promoters which is important
to grow without tussles in a
family business.
24. Accounting Change & Attractive Valuations
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
• Ashiana Housing has done an accounting change which makes it more answerable to its stated business
model of not hoarding large Inventory or land bank. This will ensure that Ashiana Housing continues to
deliver projects on time and generate good cash flows from its projects.
• Ashiana Housing quotes at attractive valuations when compared with its historic valuations. Moreover we
feel that the company deserves a premium to the valuations which other real estate players command in
market and hence there would be re-rating over the next few quarters.
26. Earnings Projection
Income Statement (INR Cr) FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E
Operating Income 139.6 241.7 137.0 152.0
EBIDTA 44.1 82.6 52.5 57.0
Depreciation 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.7
Interest Expenses 0.7 2.9 2.5 0.8
Profit Before Tax (PBT) 41.4 77.3 47.4 53.5
Other Income 14.5 7.1 9.0 11.5
Tax Provision 13.0 14.9 14.1 16.4
Profit After Tax (PAT) 43.9 69.6 42.3 48.6
• The accounting policy change
by Ashiana Housing will lead to
lower revenues and Profits in
the next 2 years, but nothing
changes substantially in the Cash
flows of the organization.
• The significant change in the
Balance sheet on the Working
Capital side (Inventory &
Creditor days ) is also for the
same reason.
• Company’s ROIC continues to
be robust and with lumpy
revenues, we expect the average
ROIC to be > 45% consistently.
• Steady growth in the Net
worth and Book Value is also a
indicator of good capital
allocation and this will continue
to rise over the next 5 Years .
Profit After Tax (PAT) 43.9 69.6 42.3 48.6
Inventory Days 327 313 740 670
Creditor Days 210 142 448 805
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 23.1 37.4 22.9 26.1
Book Value 94 128.8 149.5 173.6
Return on Invested Capital 82.6% 65% 30.9% 49%
Net worth 175.0 239.7 278.4 323.2
• The accounting policy change
by Ashiana Housing will lead to
lower revenues and Profits in
the next 2 years, but nothing
changes substantially in the Cash
flows of the organization.
• The significant change in the
Balance sheet on the Working
Capital side (Inventory &
Creditor days ) is also for the
same reason.
• Company’s ROIC continues to
be robust and with lumpy
revenues, we expect the average
ROIC to be > 45% consistently.
• Steady growth in the Net
worth and Book Value is also a
indicator of good capital
allocation and this will continue
to rise over the next 5 Years .
Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
27. Concerns & Reasoning
1.) Regulatory Hurdles in Project Execution :
The biggest concern for Ashiana Housing in the past 12 months has been the regulatory hurdles with respect
to project execution. There has been an issue with the changing regulations in converting a Agriculture land
to developing housing in Rajasthan. This delay has resulted in lower construction and saleable area in FY-13.
Though the new regulations have come in place, we believe any future changes will affect the company’s
progress. Also regulatory overhang on its Lavasa project is a concern on future profitability.
2.) Macro-Economic Headwinds :
Sustained Macro-Economic problems can lead to decreased Return Ratios on its new Projects. If Interest
rates continue to be high and Affordability starts to decrease, we can see a downtick in demand for Housing
which will lead to lower profitability for Ashiana Housing.
3.) Management’s Execution Capability in New Markets :
Ashiana Housing is expanding to several new Markets across India. Execution capability in unknown markets
will be watched closely. But Ashiana’s model of partnering with local players will help it to perform better.
We feel with no Brand strength and experience in these markets, Ashiana will have to settle for lower
Margins in these markets and hence lower returns.
4.) Steep Increase in Land Prices :
Ashiana Housing has a big advantage over other real estate players, when there is no secular rise in land
prices as it doesn’t hoard land like its peers. But a steep increase in Land prices will benefit its peers which
will provide them competitive advantages over Ashiana. This might not affect the profitability of Ashiana,
but it will take some sheen off the business model of Ashiana in stock markets.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
1.) Regulatory Hurdles in Project Execution :
The biggest concern for Ashiana Housing in the past 12 months has been the regulatory hurdles with respect
to project execution. There has been an issue with the changing regulations in converting a Agriculture land
to developing housing in Rajasthan. This delay has resulted in lower construction and saleable area in FY-13.
Though the new regulations have come in place, we believe any future changes will affect the company’s
progress. Also regulatory overhang on its Lavasa project is a concern on future profitability.
2.) Macro-Economic Headwinds :
Sustained Macro-Economic problems can lead to decreased Return Ratios on its new Projects. If Interest
rates continue to be high and Affordability starts to decrease, we can see a downtick in demand for Housing
which will lead to lower profitability for Ashiana Housing.
3.) Management’s Execution Capability in New Markets :
Ashiana Housing is expanding to several new Markets across India. Execution capability in unknown markets
will be watched closely. But Ashiana’s model of partnering with local players will help it to perform better.
We feel with no Brand strength and experience in these markets, Ashiana will have to settle for lower
Margins in these markets and hence lower returns.
4.) Steep Increase in Land Prices :
Ashiana Housing has a big advantage over other real estate players, when there is no secular rise in land
prices as it doesn’t hoard land like its peers. But a steep increase in Land prices will benefit its peers which
will provide them competitive advantages over Ashiana. This might not affect the profitability of Ashiana,
but it will take some sheen off the business model of Ashiana in stock markets.
29. Price Chart
• Ashiana Housing is one of the few real estate stocks which
has bounced back sharply from its 2009 lows and trading
at less discount to their 2007 highs.
• Institutional Investors don’t have any interest in this
Small-Cap stock and if the company does well, their entry
will be a huge Trigger for the Stock.
• We believe Ashiana Housing has technically made a good
bottom and is ready to scale new Highs. With improving
Macro scenario and sales data, Ashiana Housing will be
able to make it to the big league and get re-rated to Higher
Valuations in the next 3 Years.
Share
Holding %
June
2012
Mar
2012
Dec
2011
Sept
2011
Ashiana Housing 5-Yr Chart
• Ashiana Housing is one of the few real estate stocks which
has bounced back sharply from its 2009 lows and trading
at less discount to their 2007 highs.
• Institutional Investors don’t have any interest in this
Small-Cap stock and if the company does well, their entry
will be a huge Trigger for the Stock.
• We believe Ashiana Housing has technically made a good
bottom and is ready to scale new Highs. With improving
Macro scenario and sales data, Ashiana Housing will be
able to make it to the big league and get re-rated to Higher
Valuations in the next 3 Years.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
Share
Holding %
June
2012
Mar
2012
Dec
2011
Sept
2011
Promoters 66.12 66.12 66.12 66.12
FII 0.56 0.37 0.19 0.19
DII 0 0 0 0
30. Conclusion
Real Estate stocks have come a full circle over the past 6 years. From being the darlings of the Markets in
the previous Bull Run (2003-07) to being beaten down relentlessly (2008-12) and losing over 80% of their
Market Capitalization. Sentiments about Investing in this sector is worst in the current scenario. But we
think, there are some Good Diamonds in this Coal Field which Markets are ignoring and if picked properly
will create Huge wealth. Just after the IT Bubble bust, a handful of companies emerged out which helped
Investors multiply their wealth in a short time span.
Ashiana Housing is certainly one of the best managed Real Estate company which has a differentiated
Business model to generate good Shareholder returns. Ashiana Housing also scores well in its ambitions to
grow as a Pan-Indian housing developer with good execution capabilities. In a sector which is mired with
corporate governance and accounting issues, Ashiana stands out as a star in transparency and openness. In
spite of the High Interest rates, General Economic slowdown and High Land prices, Ashiana has been able to
perform well operationally. Hence we are confident that, it would only get better in the future.
Important Long term investment arguments include the high Return on Equity (>25%) which the
company has been able to generate consistently. With good capital allocation skills and strong growth
opportunity, Ashiana Housing can generate High un-diluted growth for its shareholders. This high growth
along with a possible P/E expansion will generate strong returns for Investors going forward.
Ashiana Housing with its robust business model, High ROCE of >30%, Long term orientation, Prudent
Management and Clean corporate governance is quoting at a valuation of less than 1.2X its book value
and lower than 3X its operating Cash Flow in FY-12. We believe this is a good opportunity to buy a Quality
business at attractive valuations which will help Investors to generate Wealth. Ashiana Housing as a stock
has the potential to grow from a Small Cap stock to a Large Cap stock in the coming decade.
Real Estate stocks have come a full circle over the past 6 years. From being the darlings of the Markets in
the previous Bull Run (2003-07) to being beaten down relentlessly (2008-12) and losing over 80% of their
Market Capitalization. Sentiments about Investing in this sector is worst in the current scenario. But we
think, there are some Good Diamonds in this Coal Field which Markets are ignoring and if picked properly
will create Huge wealth. Just after the IT Bubble bust, a handful of companies emerged out which helped
Investors multiply their wealth in a short time span.
Ashiana Housing is certainly one of the best managed Real Estate company which has a differentiated
Business model to generate good Shareholder returns. Ashiana Housing also scores well in its ambitions to
grow as a Pan-Indian housing developer with good execution capabilities. In a sector which is mired with
corporate governance and accounting issues, Ashiana stands out as a star in transparency and openness. In
spite of the High Interest rates, General Economic slowdown and High Land prices, Ashiana has been able to
perform well operationally. Hence we are confident that, it would only get better in the future.
Important Long term investment arguments include the high Return on Equity (>25%) which the
company has been able to generate consistently. With good capital allocation skills and strong growth
opportunity, Ashiana Housing can generate High un-diluted growth for its shareholders. This high growth
along with a possible P/E expansion will generate strong returns for Investors going forward.
Ashiana Housing with its robust business model, High ROCE of >30%, Long term orientation, Prudent
Management and Clean corporate governance is quoting at a valuation of less than 1.2X its book value
and lower than 3X its operating Cash Flow in FY-12. We believe this is a good opportunity to buy a Quality
business at attractive valuations which will help Investors to generate Wealth. Ashiana Housing as a stock
has the potential to grow from a Small Cap stock to a Large Cap stock in the coming decade.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
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Strong Secular Multibagger Stocks
1 I****S*F***** Niche & Growing NBFC This stock has recently come out with astounding Quarterly
results and we feel that the Market is still not valuing the
company properly with the potential for further upsides.
2 P******C*** Medical Consumables with
Strong Product Line-Up
Company has been growing at a rapid pace and with better
margins, we expect the company's profits to grow tremendously
in this Fiscal Year.
3 D*****F* Fastest Growing Housing
Finance Company
This company has been growing its Loan book at more than 35%
CAGR and has been continuously growing for the past 40 Quarters
sequentially with High quality Loan assets.
4 G***C***N Best Capital Goods Stock This is a Stock which would Interest even the World’s Best
Investor, “Mr. Warren Buffet”. Company has over 40% ROIC and
gives Dividend every Quarter and has the potential to Multiply.
4 G***C***N Best Capital Goods Stock This is a Stock which would Interest even the World’s Best
Investor, “Mr. Warren Buffet”. Company has over 40% ROIC and
gives Dividend every Quarter and has the potential to Multiply.
5 K*D*L* Largest Dials Manufacturer &
Unique Retailing opportunity
Want to bet on the Growth of Luxury watches in India, invest in
this company. A First-mover in a space which is throwing up Multi-
Billion opportunities in similar countries like China.
6 S****O**** Asia's Largest Crane Rental
service Provider
This stock is the perfect Proxy to bet on the revival of Indian
CAPEX cycle at a very low cost. A company whose stock has
multiplied over 100X in the past few years.
7 C****W**** Highest ROE Bathroom
solutions company
The stock has performed brilliantly well and with the
Management commentary, we are sure of even better
performance going forward.
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33. 8 A**Y**I***L India's best Integrated Logistics
Solutions provider
This company is pioneering one of the Highly successful Logistics
concepts in India and has been very successful in building the
Initial traction for this high potential business.
9 K**B**K Most Efficient Mid-Cap Banking
stock
The Banking stock which is known for its consistency and
Operational excellence, is quoting at very attractive valuations.
Smart Money is slowly accumulating the stock.
10 A**L Low Assets, High ROCE, Strong
Promoters in a Auto Ancillary
company
This company is quoting at an attractive dividend yield of over
4.3% and with the expected growth in CV segment, we expect the
business to grow well .
11 *I**C**N Asia's Largest Bio-Pharma
company
This company has been in the news recently for a wrong reason.
But this has allowed us to add more of this stock at attractive
prices. With several possible triggers in the next few quarters, we
expect a positive surprise.
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This company has been in the news recently for a wrong reason.
But this has allowed us to add more of this stock at attractive
prices. With several possible triggers in the next few quarters, we
expect a positive surprise.
12 H*I*** Market Leader and High
Growth, Building Materials
company led by a Dynamic &
Honest Management
This company is by-far the best Proxy company for the growth of
Indian Consumption. Whether you drink a Cool drink, beer or
construct your Home, the company's product will get used. The
company has very High Pricing power.
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