Creative decision making - how it's changing

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i gave this presentation to explore new decision making models including social.

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  • Compelling stuff Haydn as ever. Thanks for sharing. The first 'document' I read in 2014 - I wasn't even looking for it - just fell in to it and couldn't get out.
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  • Haydn - an excellent presentation I agree w/ everything except one point that you make on the last page.

    Sometimes you've got to burn down their house so that there is no returning to the past. I think brands are viewed by many as viable targets for folks to tackle, nothing is off the table especially for the new breed of entrepreneurs.

    Cheers,
    Richard
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Creative decision making - how it's changing

  1. 1. September2013 Haydn Shaughnessy
  2. 2. “Rational” Decision Models Action models : An action is of the form "IF <this> is true, THEN do <that>" Stage Gate: If innovation x still promises Return Y, at Gate Z, let it pass
  3. 3. MOST DECISION MODELS REST ON THE ASSUMPTION OF OLIGOPOLY POWER – THAT WE CAN BUY MARKETS MY LAB MY INVENTION, MY START- UP, MY PRODUCT MY MARKETING BUDGET MY CUSTOMERS THIS IS THE ECONOMY WE INHABITED FOR 200 YEARS
  4. 4. Two Decision Models. Rational and Social, VC v Crowdfunding Crowd model – emotive capitalism 1.Project based, no growth requirement 2.No assumption about failure 3.Self-imposed outcome burden, supports entrepreneurism 4.Culture-friendly and ideal for building emotional outcomes 5.Peer and social network based, potentially with a positive loop for resources 6.Emotional connections VC Model – Surplus Capital 1.Company based, must scale 2.Assumption of high failure rate 3.High stress for proposers, barrier to entrepreneurs 4.Antagonistic to cultural production or lifestyle 5.Extractive, the money is taken out 6.ROI
  5. 5. THREE BIG DRIVERS OF CHANGE 1. The loss of oligopoly power THROUGH, global competition and convergence, reconstructing trust 2. Throw in technological disruption too – mobile, cloud, social, data, also impacts trust 3. And globally diverse markets with differing needs and dynamics FOUR BIG SHIFTS
  6. 6. BIG SHIFT 1: EXTERNALIZATION
  7. 7. What is Externalizable?
  8. 8. THE BIG SHIFT 2 RADICAL ADJACENCY THE REQUIREMENT TO GO OUT INTO OTHER MARKETS WITH NEW PRODUCTS, OR TO GO WHERE YOU HAVE NO TRACK RECORD OR CORE COMPETENCY. How come Apple is the world’s top retailer?
  9. 9. RADICAL ADJACENCY EXAMPLES Apple into smartphones, and into retail Microsoft into telephony and devices Google into Mobile, Lending and Autos Walmart trying to open a bank Train makers into services
  10. 10. THE BIG SHIFT 3 – NARROW INNOVATION MULTIPLE SIMULTANEOUS INNOVATIONS TO SERVE NEW, NARROWER MARKETS FOR THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS. Google Glass will launch with 2,000 apps
  11. 11. Narrow Innovation Example: Samsung Over 150 different types of phone in the US alone Makes every type of display – OLED, LCD, PLASMA Make computers, phones, tablets, TVs, white goods etc
  12. 12. In most corporations decisions are being pushed to the edge, old decision hierarchies can’t cope More decisions, faster cycles, nearer the edge
  13. 13. BIG SHIFT 4 OPTIONS MANAGEMENT REPLACES ROI
  14. 14. OPTIONS MANAGEMENT – WHAT DO WE MEAN? Companies are faced by options that they can recognize and embrace But in so doing they need to devise new-ROI CRITERIA. ROI is EXAGGERATiON and at best impossible at the early stage CRITERIA tend to be applied restrospecitively once ROI has failed Proposed criteria: •Does it provide risk reduction/anticipate competitor moves? •Does it accelerate other processes or learning capabilities? •Does it bring in or bring on key talent? •Does it contribute to image/brand/marketing?
  15. 15. Companies need a strategic options portfolio built from a variety of criteria and capable of being managed. OPTION PORTFOLIOS SHOULD CONSIST OF OPTIONS THAT ARE OUT THERE, NOT JUST THOSE YOU GENERATE DESIRED INNOVATION PROJECTS DECIDED WITH SOCIAL, CREATIVE AND ITERATIVE DECISION MODELS EXISTING INNOVATION PROJECTS (SHORT AND LONG TERM) KNOWN COMPETITOR PROJECTS THE COMMON GO TO MARKET MODEL A DECISION TOOL AND A MANAGEMENT TOOL
  16. 16. SO WHAT ARE THE NEW DECISION PROCESSES? WHAT ARE THE NEW MODELS FOR AN OPTIONS MANAGER? SOCIAL CREATIVE ITERATIVE
  17. 17. Social Decision Environment
  18. 18. WHO HAS DECIDED YOUR IT DEVICE POLICY? YOUR DOCUMENT SHARING STRATEGY? YOUR EMPLOYEES AND THEIR FRIENDS THAT’S WHY AUTODESK HAS BOUGHT UP COMMUNITIES TOTALLING 120 MILLION MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC
  19. 19. “Normally when people think of making music they think write, record, mix. We don’t do that at all. It is confusing and terrifying to some artists but we do all three at the same time. Write, mix, open audio files, throw things onto the phone….” Mike Shinoda Linkin Park Eclectic, knowledgeable, good decisions A Creative Decision Process
  20. 20. “He (producer Salaam Remi) started going through his sample library and all these different crazy drums. And there were these loud, obnoxious, just destructive drums, and I was like, Yeah! A girl on fire is loud and obnoxious and destructive and just, like, totally unrelenting and she’s free….” Alicia Keyes on writing Girl on Fire And another
  21. 21. CREATIVE DECISIONS ARE ABOUT ABUNDANCE OF INFORMATION, DATA, SELECTION, CHOICES
  22. 22. ITERATIVE - Creativity is about taking what’s out there and making something of it.
  23. 23. Requirements for Samsung’s Creative Elite
  24. 24. WE MAKE DECISIONS IN CONSTANTLY CHANGING CONTEXTS
  25. 25. William Henry Perkins Wallace Carothers
  26. 26. The Connection Between 19th Century Chemist Perkins and Samsung?
  27. 27. The Colourless Built Environment
  28. 28. Monet 1900 and Van Gogh late 1880s
  29. 29. PERKINS STARTED US OFF BY SYNETHESIZING PURPLE (AS MAUVE) IN THE 1850S
  30. 30. HUMANS HAVE GRADUALLY COLOURED THEIR WORLD AND ENHANCED THEIR ABILITY TO ENJOY COLOUR THEY HAVE GROWN A SENSE OF COLOUR
  31. 31. Nanosys/3M Quantum Dot Technology 2013 – Enhances LCD Colour Reproduction by 50%
  32. 32. OLED – a $26 billion market in the making, is all about color reproduction
  33. 33. HUMANS MAKE USE OF ONLY ABOUT 30% OF THEIR COLOUR CAPABILITY
  34. 34. 1. WE CHANGE HOW WE SEE
  35. 35. CAROTHERS – INVENTED NYLON AND BEGAN THE LONG PROCESS OF FREEING THE HUMAN SEXUAL FORM IN THE PUBLIC ARENA
  36. 36. PUBLIC SEXUALITY SPARKED THE RESURGENCE OF ROMANTIC LOVE AND THE SONGS THAT MAKE UP THE SOUNDTRACKS OF OUR LIVES Music is a major driver of the web, auto innovation, domestic entertainment etc.
  37. 37. 1. WE CHANGE HOW WE SEE 2. WE CHANGE HOW WE FEEL
  38. 38. RESHAPING TRUST Like all emotions, trust evolves
  39. 39. I trust: Paypal Google Facebook About 60% of my LinkedIn Connections People who work for me whom I have never met People I work with where my only connection is an Electronically Signed contract People who sell me apps About 1,000 people on Twitter
  40. 40. IN SHORT – WE ARE REFRAMING THE WORLD AROUND US THAT’S WHAT WE WANT YOU TO DO NOW 1. WE CHANGE HOW WE SEE 2. WE CHANGE HOW WE FEEL 3. WE CHANGE HOW WE RELATE
  41. 41. Go with you’re your emotions – your gut. Don’t play safe Allow yourself options that you might normally cut. Build don’t burn Look around you for decision criteria. Ask for support
  42. 42. THE END HAYDN SHAUGHNESSY Blogs/forbes.com/haydnshaughnessy haydn@cogenuity.com www.thefluidcore.com

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