John Briscoe, Erum Sattar, Anjali Lohani, Hassaan              Youssuf and Laila Kasuri              Harvard University   ...
Caveats:• These are very sensitive political issues• These are my own opinions and absolutely not “now  revealed” views of...
Story line1. Some basic facts that will drive cooperation   (or conflict) over water in South Asia2. Sharing waters – good...
Nothing new in conflict over water…• Origin of the  word “rival”:  1570–80; < L  rīvālis orig., one  who uses a  stream in...
Water security cannot beunderstood in isolation…               Income security     Energy                       Food    Se...
The international transboundarywaters come on top of major internal             challenges
Several major international river basinsTerritorial disputes in important parts          of the catchments…
All international rivers in South Asiarise at great height in the Himalayas
There is massive unexploited hydroelectric potential…% hydropower potential developed   100%    90%               Japan   ...
And then there is climate change…
With the prospect of more frequent flooding…Sukkur,August2009Sukkur,August2010
And huge questions about what  happens in the Himalayas
Context: South Asia is the least integrated region in the world
…. intra-regional trade is the lowest in               the world
Lack of mutualties-that-bind  aggravate  otherwise  resolvable   conflicts
The overlap between water scarcity    and the RNSSC members…                 Standard fare:                 •Terrorism    ...
Story line1. Some basic facts that will drive cooperation   (and conflict) over water2. Sharing waters in South Asia – goo...
Sharing waters• A good framework well implemented (so far)  – the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960• A good framework imperfectl...
Ch               us                                       en           I nd                        l um             ab    ...
The challenges and legacies of partition in                 1947• the headwaters were in India• And the major irrigated ar...
(Conflicting) principles for sharing                  water• Equitable use (EU)• No appreciable harm (NAH)
President Ayub Khan• “We have been able to get the  best that was possible…”• “Very often the best is the  enemy of the go...
A brutal solution• The Eastern Rivers – the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej -- all  water to India• The Western Rivers – Chenab, Jhe...
LivestorageDeadstorage
The Indus - The Treaty (1960) P a k i s ta n                    In d ia
Financing of “the replacement works”               in Pakistan…• $ 900 million to finance the construction of  Mangla, Tar...
The IWT widely regarded as a great             success…“the one area where India and Pakistan have  worked constructively ...
After 40 years,for the first time,     India and  Pakistan were     unable tobilaterally resolvean issue through      the ...
• India’s design of Baglihar:  – Concern about siltation (Salal Dam silted up very fast)  – Chinese principle “store clear...
Outcome of the Baglihar case…• Apparently – Solomonic:   • 3 findings for Pakistan   • 3 for India – a successful “win-win...
Rivers full of silt…
The Baglihar re-interpretation on permissible          “manipulable storage” …                                Old manipula...
Indian Hydro, especially in the ChenabBasin will put great stress on the IWT                                              ...
The result of the Baglihar NE          decision?– Baglihar NE focussed only on the “make  use of the resources” principle ...
The current conflict (Kishenganga)…                 Neelum River Neelum Jhelum   1000 mw             Jhelum River
The current conflict…                               Kishangana                                 330 mw                Neelu...
What does the Indus Waters Treaty say?• Annexure D, para 15   – where a Plant is located on a tributary of The     Jhelum ...
The choice?• For Pakistan (and India):  – With massive increase in plans on the Jhelum and    (especially) Chenab in India...
What might be done to save the IWT?• The division of property rights is sound and  should be maintained• The dispute resol...
• For example, why not do jointly-planned,  jointly-financed and jointly-operated hydel?        Itaipu Binacional (Brazil-...
The example of the bi-national (Paraguay and           Brazil) Itaipu project                        2500                 ...
• Brazil’s president agreed to triple Paraguay’s income  from Itaipú• The agreement is a huge deal for Paraguay…• For Braz...
Is such big-heartedness likely on           the Indus?– In the past the general sentiment in India  would have been “we wo...
Sharing waters• A good framework well implemented (so far) –  the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960• A good framework imperfectl...
Harvard Pakistan Water ProjectIn Collaboration with LUMS                                              The 1991 Water Accor...
Harvard SAI Conference                        AgendaBackground on the Accord    The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation...
Harvard SAI Conference                         AgendaBackground on the Accord    The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementatio...
Background                  Why we Chose to Focus on the Accord                                      •Trans boundary issue...
Background                   Glass Half Empty and Half Full                          Ambiguities and necessity for adjustm...
Background                           Inter-Provincial Water Issues in Pakistan                        The provincial shari...
… however, various issues around the Accord have contributed tothe mistrust amongst the provinces and hampered theconstruc...
Harvard SAI Conference                         AgendaBackground on the Accord    The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementatio...
Institutional and                                          Mistrust AmongstAmbiguities   +   Implementation               ...
The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation                        Ambiguities in the AccordThe key ambiguity in the 1991 A...
The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation                                  The Accord: 1991 to present  These two differe...
The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation                                   The Accord: Three-tier Scenario              ...
The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation                     The Accord: Current MistrustThe three-tier scenario appeare...
The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation                  The Accord: Implementation IssuesBut the provinces have not ye...
In addition to these ambiguities, there seem to be a number ofinstitutional and implementation issues around the Accord   ...
The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation                         Key Technical Issues (1/2)                             ...
The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation   Key Technical Issues (2/2)
The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation                     Key Institutional Issues                Enforcement    •Lac...
Harvard SAI Conference                         AgendaBackground on the Accord    The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementatio...
Importance of Resolving Ambiguities                   Vicious Circle of Water InsecurityMistrust is one factor            ...
Importance of Resolving Ambiguities                 Provincial Stalemate on Key Storages“Sindh wants implementation of 199...
SAI Conference                        AgendaBackground on the Accord    Implementation Issues     Importance of Resolving ...
Suggestions and Next Steps                             Some Next Steps for IRSA                         •Put key data onli...
Suggestions and Next Steps                                Next Steps for UsWe are preparing a paper (or papers) inter alia...
Back to Professor Briscoe !
Sharing waters• A good framework well implemented (so far) –  the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960• A good framework badly impl...
Union Government very passive:“Water is a state issue”, when in fact it         is on concurrent list• Interstate issues l...
Minister of Finance, India:   India facing a growing series of “small civil wars”  over water rights…Minister of Water ...
Sharing waters• A good framework well implemented (so far) –  the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960• A good framework imperfectl...
The issue• Diversions of Ganga water at Farakka has had  a negative impact on Bangladesh• (Coupled with the “natural” east...
Ganges at                     Hardinge bridgeEffect of abnormalreduction ofGanges flows inBangladesh
Dry season 5 ppt                                    r                                    e                            isoh...
The 1996 Ganges Treaty signed by      India and Bangladesh                    Water for India                Water for Ban...
(A posture which would help in the case of the IWT….)Tariq Karim is now the Bangladesh High Commissioner inDelhi…. And hav...
Story line1. Some basic facts that will drive cooperation   (and conflict) over water2. Sharing waters – good and bad expe...
Sharing benefits…• An international success – Bhutan and India• An international failure – Nepal and India• An internation...
Bhutan’s main resource is water and gravity……
Gross national happiness is very high…
• “Bhutan’s ability to harness the hydropower resources has been made  possible because of the close and friendly ties wit...
Sharing benefits…• An international success – Bhutan and India• An international failure – Nepal and India• An internation...
The (shameful) case of Arun III          • A medium-size project (400 mw)          • Nepal relied on “international       ...
Although, ofcourse, theWorld Bank’swithdrawal really hadmore to dowith this….               As told here….
Happily it looks as though Nepal is finally learning from Bhutan….
Sharing benefits…• An international success – Bhutan and India• An international failure – Nepal and India• An internation...
TRANSFER TO                                                          YANGTZE?:                                            ...
Overall Conclusions• Tensions over transboundary waters are growing  between countries and within countries
• These tensions raise the specter of water wars…• The internal challenges are often as serious as the  international ones...
• To move from conflict to cooperation:   – In some cases sharing water can be the solution, in     others sharing benefit...
President Ayub Khan• “We have been able to get the  best that was possible…”• “Very often the best is the  enemy of the go...
• Politicians (and people and the media) are going to  have to learn to let bygones be bygones…• Santayana:   – “those who...
• I am a South African of Irish descent:         • Conor Cruise O’Brien:            – In Ireland we have learned our histo...
Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012
Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012
Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012
Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012
Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012
Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012
Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012
Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012
Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012
Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012
Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012
Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012
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Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012

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More than 180 people attended the Harvard SAI Conference: Water as a Platform for Development in Lahore on July 22, with more watching the event live here at CGIS. LUMS students and private sector attendees alike were energized by the work being done by keynote speaker Prof. John Briscoe and his colleagues.

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Water as a Platform for Development : South Asia Initiative SAI, Harvard University Presentation in LUMS, Lahore 2012

  1. 1. John Briscoe, Erum Sattar, Anjali Lohani, Hassaan Youssuf and Laila Kasuri Harvard University Lahore, July 22, 2011
  2. 2. Caveats:• These are very sensitive political issues• These are my own opinions and absolutely not “now revealed” views of the World Bank• What I say about the position of the World Bank is based on public information not on “insider information”
  3. 3. Story line1. Some basic facts that will drive cooperation (or conflict) over water in South Asia2. Sharing waters – good and bad experiences3. Sharing benefits – good and bad experiences
  4. 4. Nothing new in conflict over water…• Origin of the word “rival”: 1570–80; < L rīvālis orig., one who uses a stream in common with another, equiv. to rīv(us) stream + - ālis -al1
  5. 5. Water security cannot beunderstood in isolation… Income security Energy Food Security Security Water security
  6. 6. The international transboundarywaters come on top of major internal challenges
  7. 7. Several major international river basinsTerritorial disputes in important parts of the catchments…
  8. 8. All international rivers in South Asiarise at great height in the Himalayas
  9. 9. There is massive unexploited hydroelectric potential…% hydropower potential developed 100% 90% Japan 80% Europe 70% North America 60% 50% 40% India South 30% America China 20% 10% Pakistan Nepal Africa 0% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Thousand GWH/year economically viable potential
  10. 10. And then there is climate change…
  11. 11. With the prospect of more frequent flooding…Sukkur,August2009Sukkur,August2010
  12. 12. And huge questions about what happens in the Himalayas
  13. 13. Context: South Asia is the least integrated region in the world
  14. 14. …. intra-regional trade is the lowest in the world
  15. 15. Lack of mutualties-that-bind aggravate otherwise resolvable conflicts
  16. 16. The overlap between water scarcity and the RNSSC members… Standard fare: •Terrorism •Nuclear Proliferation Now: •Water
  17. 17. Story line1. Some basic facts that will drive cooperation (and conflict) over water2. Sharing waters in South Asia – good and bad experiences3. Sharing benefits – good and bad experiences
  18. 18. Sharing waters• A good framework well implemented (so far) – the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960• A good framework imperfectly implemented (so far) – the 1991 Water Accord in Pakistan (presented by Erum, Anajali, Laila and Hassan)• A bad framework badly implemented – inter- state rivers in India• An nth best with implementation difficulties – the Ganges Treaty of 1996
  19. 19. Ch us en I nd l um ab Jh e Bea s vi RaPakistan Sut lej India 1947 – Partition
  20. 20. The challenges and legacies of partition in 1947• the headwaters were in India• And the major irrigated areas (about 85% of total irrigated area) in Pakistan
  21. 21. (Conflicting) principles for sharing water• Equitable use (EU)• No appreciable harm (NAH)
  22. 22. President Ayub Khan• “We have been able to get the best that was possible…”• “Very often the best is the enemy of the good, and in this case we have accepted the good after careful and realistic appreciation of our entire overall situation”• “The basis of this agreement is realism and pragmatism…”
  23. 23. A brutal solution• The Eastern Rivers – the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej -- all water to India• The Western Rivers – Chenab, Jhelum and Indus -- all water for Pakistan – But what about the non-consumptive development opportunities in India? • Energy could be used (in Indian-held Kashmir) without affecting quantity or timing of flows to Pakistan – Very detailed site-by-site specification of what India could do respecting two principles: • No material changes in hydrographs • Limiting the amount of “live storage” in specific Indian HEPs
  24. 24. LivestorageDeadstorage
  25. 25. The Indus - The Treaty (1960) P a k i s ta n In d ia
  26. 26. Financing of “the replacement works” in Pakistan…• $ 900 million to finance the construction of Mangla, Tarbela and major link canals. • Donors -- $300 million provided by Australia, Canada, Germany, New Zealand, United Kingdom and United States. • Pakistan provided about $350 million from own budget • $80 million loan from World Bank • $174 million dollars paid by India for construction of dams and canals in Pakistan
  27. 27. The IWT widely regarded as a great success…“the one area where India and Pakistan have worked constructively together, even when they were at war…”But….
  28. 28. After 40 years,for the first time, India and Pakistan were unable tobilaterally resolvean issue through the IWT Commission – the design ofBaglihar Dam on the Chenab
  29. 29. • India’s design of Baglihar: – Concern about siltation (Salal Dam silted up very fast) – Chinese principle “store clear water, discharge muddy water” – Good practice is to install low gates to flush silt• Pakistan’s fear: – With low gates, India could manipulate flows coming into Pakistan..• In 2004 Pakistan petitioned the World Bank to appoint a “neutral expert”• As stipulated in the IWT the World Bank did this
  30. 30. Outcome of the Baglihar case…• Apparently – Solomonic: • 3 findings for Pakistan • 3 for India – a successful “win-win”…• But re-interpreted the IWT: – Legitimately: • took into account new knowledge (especially on sedimentation management)
  31. 31. Rivers full of silt…
  32. 32. The Baglihar re-interpretation on permissible “manipulable storage” … Old manipulable storage New manipulable storage
  33. 33. Indian Hydro, especially in the ChenabBasin will put great stress on the IWT Kishenganga 330 mw Sawal Kot 1200 mw Baglihar 450 (+ 450) mw Salal 700 mw Bursar 1000 mw Pakuldul 1000 mw Dul Haste 390 (+ 390) mw P a k i s ta n In d i a Complete Under construction In planning
  34. 34. The result of the Baglihar NE decision?– Baglihar NE focussed only on the “make use of the resources” principle in the IWT and ignored the “without giving a capacity to manipulate flows” principle– Back-of-envelope calculations suggest that after it has built all currently- planned hydros, India will be able to store about 40 days of low-flow in the Chenab– Pakistan left largely without protection if India decided to temporarily withhold water from Pakistan
  35. 35. The current conflict (Kishenganga)… Neelum River Neelum Jhelum 1000 mw Jhelum River
  36. 36. The current conflict… Kishangana 330 mw Neelum RiverNeelum Jhelum 1000 mw Jhelum River
  37. 37. What does the Indus Waters Treaty say?• Annexure D, para 15 – where a Plant is located on a tributary of The Jhelum on which Pakistan has any agricultural use or hydro-electric use, the water released below the plant may be delivered, if necessary, into another tributary but only to the extent that the then existing agricultural use or hydro- electric use by Pakistan on the former tributary would not be adversely affected . Case before an international tribunal – let’s see how it rules….
  38. 38. The choice?• For Pakistan (and India): – With massive increase in plans on the Jhelum and (especially) Chenab in Indian-held Kashmir.. – The stresses on the IWT mechanism will become overwhelming – Continue as is – heading for a trainwreck? • For Pakistan major concerns: – The “physical protection” of limiting live storage has been greatly reduced by the Baglihar finding…. • For India: – major uncertainties for investors – And fuel to the jehadi fire…
  39. 39. What might be done to save the IWT?• The division of property rights is sound and should be maintained• The dispute resolution mechanism could be modernized: – Away from engineers scoring points against other engineers – Engagement of neutral dispute resolution expertise – Invest in win-win projects
  40. 40. • For example, why not do jointly-planned, jointly-financed and jointly-operated hydel? Itaipu Binacional (Brazil-Paraguay)
  41. 41. The example of the bi-national (Paraguay and Brazil) Itaipu project 2500 GDP (billion US$ ppp) 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Brazil Paraguay Bolivia
  42. 42. • Brazil’s president agreed to triple Paraguay’s income from Itaipú• The agreement is a huge deal for Paraguay…• For Brazil, the approximately $240 million a year it agreed to give up is a small price to pay for Mr. da Silva’s broader goals of calming tensions with its neighbors, asserting Brazil’s leadership in the region and promoting regional integration
  43. 43. Is such big-heartedness likely on the Indus?– In the past the general sentiment in India would have been “we would never use water as a weapon…”– And now the prevailing sentiment is “this would be legitimate payback for Mumbai”….– And India has simultaneously: • advised Pakistan to build storage on the Indus and • Pressured the World Bank (which has apparently caved in to such pressure) to not invest in Daimler Basha Dam on the Indus in Pakistan…
  44. 44. Sharing waters• A good framework well implemented (so far) – the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960• A good framework imperfectly implemented (so far) – the 1991 Water Accord in Pakistan (presented by Erum, Anajali, Laila and Hassan)• A bad framework badly implemented – inter- state rivers in India• An nth best with implementation difficulties – the Ganges Treaty of 1996
  45. 45. Harvard Pakistan Water ProjectIn Collaboration with LUMS The 1991 Water Accord Presentation at the Harvard South Asia Initiative Conference in Lahore, Pakistan July 22, 2011
  46. 46. Harvard SAI Conference AgendaBackground on the Accord The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation Importance of Resolving Ambiguities and Implementation IssuesSuggestions and Next Steps
  47. 47. Harvard SAI Conference AgendaBackground on the Accord The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation Importance of Resolving Ambiguities and Implementation IssuesSuggestions and Next Steps
  48. 48. Background Why we Chose to Focus on the Accord •Trans boundary issues of growing importance; “water wars” •Most focus is between countries (e.g. IWT) •But there are issues at all levels, not least among provinces in federal countries •Harvard Water Security Initiative and HLS will be doing a conference this spring on “Water Management Across State Boundaries in Federal Countries”Pakistan’s glass on this is half full (we HAVE an Accord!) but also half empty….
  49. 49. Background Glass Half Empty and Half Full Ambiguities and necessity for adjustments are part of all Half Empty water accords Half Full The Accord has actually worked reasonably well despite a lot of noiseBut it could work a lot better, and that is what we are going to nowfocus on…
  50. 50. Background Inter-Provincial Water Issues in Pakistan The provincial sharing of water has been a long, contested issue even Century before the current Accord (e.g. Sukkur Barrage) and a half of disputesTimeline Ad hoc sharing arrangements were followed till 1990 but no storages post Mangla and Tarbela could be agreed upon until water apportionment was done Finally in 1991, the Accord was signed to allocate existing and 1991 future water amongst the provinces with the aim to create trust and facilitate construction of much needed future storages …
  51. 51. … however, various issues around the Accord have contributed tothe mistrust amongst the provinces and hampered theconstruction of these storages Institutional and Mistrust AmongstAccord Ambiguities + Implementation Issues = Provinces
  52. 52. Harvard SAI Conference AgendaBackground on the Accord The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation Importance of Resolving Ambiguities and Implementation IssuesSuggestions and Next Steps
  53. 53. Institutional and Mistrust AmongstAmbiguities + Implementation Issues = Provinces
  54. 54. The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation Ambiguities in the AccordThe key ambiguity in the 1991 Accord relates to whatconstitutes “initial conditions” Initial Conditions Debate One Interpretation Another Interpretation•The historical uses (77-82) of 103maf were used as a guideline forcreating Accord allocations of 114maf Use historical allocation of 103•Once the Accord has been made, it maf until 114 maf comes onlinehas to be implemented through additional storage•Accord envisages pro-rata sharingof shortages and surpluses
  55. 55. The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation The Accord: 1991 to present These two different interpretations of the Accord have added to inter-provincial mistrust especially in times of shortages Accord is 1994 Ministerial 3-tier scenario decision based on introduced; KPK and Approved Balochistan exempted Ad hoc historical use Allocations Implementated from sharing shortages Timeline 1991 1994 1999 2001-2002 2003-present Ministerial Meeting decides sharing should Law Division opinion: 1994 be based on historical Ministerial decision based on use historical use is a violation of the Accord 150 WaterAvailability (maf) 90 ‘99 – ‘00 ’03 – ‘04
  56. 56. The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation The Accord: Three-tier Scenario Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III WaterAvailability 103 maf 114 maf Shared as per Actual Shared as per Accord Average Historical Use allocations (77-82) Shared as per Accord Balance supplies shared as allocations per para 4 percentages (37-37-14-12) There are gainers and losers under this method
  57. 57. The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation The Accord: Current MistrustThe three-tier scenario appeared to be the best compromise at that timeThe three-tier method seems to be a functioning yet uneasy modusoperandiThere is constant contesting especially around the issue of exempting KPKand Balochistan from sharing shortagesThis has exacerbated rather than reduced mistrust
  58. 58. The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation The Accord: Implementation IssuesBut the provinces have not yet appealed to the CCI on this issueIt seems that no single province can afford to unravel the system – YET !However, there will be new pressures on the system in the future (e.g. Gilgit-Baltistan)The implementing body of the Accord, Indus River System Authority (IRSA), must be strengthened to deal with these existing pressures and future challenges
  59. 59. In addition to these ambiguities, there seem to be a number ofinstitutional and implementation issues around the Accord Institutional and Mistrust Amongst Ambiguities + Implementation Issues = Provinces
  60. 60. The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation Key Technical Issues (1/2) •Correlation with prior irrigation season used for predictions; increased variability with climate change Predicted •Provinces bring different numbers to the table which Flows serve their interests •Possibility of forecast manipulation which could undermine trust in IRSA •Inadequate monitoring of dataTechnical Monitoring •In 2002-03, telemetric system was installed but hasIssues not been successful •Significant losses witnessed between barrages; losses doubled over last decade Losses •Rapidly growing unauthorized abstractions •Greater reliance on groundwaterAll these technical limitations increase provincial mistrust
  61. 61. The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation Key Technical Issues (2/2)
  62. 62. The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation Key Institutional Issues Enforcement •Lacks authority to double check provincial data •Underfunding hinders implementation capacity Funding •Important steps made to secure financial basis for IRSAInstitutional Issues Lack of •Provincial dependence for allowances Autonomy •Corporatization envisaged in 1991 Regulatory Absence of an inter-ministerial, inter-provincial body Framework to oversee water sector planning and development
  63. 63. Harvard SAI Conference AgendaBackground on the Accord The Accord, Ambiguities and Implementation Importance of Resolving Ambiguities and Implementation IssuesSuggestions and Next Steps
  64. 64. Importance of Resolving Ambiguities Vicious Circle of Water InsecurityMistrust is one factor Lack of reservoirsthat blocks consensus exacerbates shortageson building reservoirs Water InsecurityLack of transparency in Shortages increasedealing with competition whichambiguities increases cause ambiguities tomistrust surface
  65. 65. Importance of Resolving Ambiguities Provincial Stalemate on Key Storages“Sindh wants implementation of 1991 Water Accord” Dawn, June 06, 2009“Punjab farmers reject 1991 Water Accord without Kalabagh Dam” Dawn, April 3, 2010“Sindh rejects construction of Kalabagh Dam” Dawn, June 17, 2010
  66. 66. SAI Conference AgendaBackground on the Accord Implementation Issues Importance of Resolving AmbiguitiesSuggestions and Next Steps
  67. 67. Suggestions and Next Steps Some Next Steps for IRSA •Put key data online; look to Punjab as a model.Data Availability • IRSA’s recent step to put up daily data is commendable but needs to be more comprehensive. •Ensure installation of telemetry stations and training of staff for continuous data collection and monitoring to perform flow measurements Monitoring •Start with barrage to barrage and canal headworks monitoring •In the long run, need more comprehensive monitoring •Urgent need for an independent, technical assessment of “conveyance “Conveyance losses” Losses” •Bring illegal abstractions into the allocation and management system through improved monitoring Increased transparency will reduce mistrust
  68. 68. Suggestions and Next Steps Next Steps for UsWe are preparing a paper (or papers) inter alia for the Harvard conference on“Inter-state management of water in Federal Countries”From that there will be “lessons of better and worse practice” around theworldWe see this as an input for the Pakistani leaders who will be invited to theconferenceWill be a great opportunity for Pakistan to consider the way in which itcan do better on this vital issue
  69. 69. Back to Professor Briscoe !
  70. 70. Sharing waters• A good framework well implemented (so far) – the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960• A good framework badly implemented (so far) – the Indus in Pakistan• A bad framework badly implemented – inter- state rivers in India• An nth best with implementation difficulties – the Ganges Treaty of 1996
  71. 71. Union Government very passive:“Water is a state issue”, when in fact it is on concurrent list• Interstate issues left to Tribunals• Which have no standard operating procedure• Which take decades to come to unpredictable decisions• Which stimulate destructive gaming on behalf of the States
  72. 72. Minister of Finance, India:  India facing a growing series of “small civil wars” over water rights…Minister of Water Resources:  “I am not the Minister of Water Resources but the Minister of Water Conflicts”
  73. 73. Sharing waters• A good framework well implemented (so far) – the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960• A good framework imperfectly implemented (so far) – the 1991 Water Accord in Pakistan• A bad framework badly implemented – inter- state rivers in India• An nth best with implementation difficulties – the Ganges Treaty of 1996
  74. 74. The issue• Diversions of Ganga water at Farakka has had a negative impact on Bangladesh• (Coupled with the “natural” easterly drift of the main channels of the delta)
  75. 75. Ganges at Hardinge bridgeEffect of abnormalreduction ofGanges flows inBangladesh
  76. 76. Dry season 5 ppt r e isohaline now v i R a n u m a Gn J ag es Ri e vr G r e oa v i R r iR ive C Dry season 5 ppt h a n r h eg a nd isohaline in 60s r M Kmu a n a e p rRiv R P a p U er i v dm NbClosing of a ag er aR ag na iv R erGorai hasmajorenviron-mentalimpact inSundarbans Salinity Intrusion
  77. 77. The 1996 Ganges Treaty signed by India and Bangladesh Water for India Water for Bangladesh Low flow Medium flow High flow Water Availability at Farakka
  78. 78. (A posture which would help in the case of the IWT….)Tariq Karim is now the Bangladesh High Commissioner inDelhi…. And have just concluded another major treatyon sharing waters of the Teesta River
  79. 79. Story line1. Some basic facts that will drive cooperation (and conflict) over water2. Sharing waters – good and bad experiences:3. Sharing benefits in South Asia – good and bad experiences
  80. 80. Sharing benefits…• An international success – Bhutan and India• An international failure – Nepal and India• An international possibility – China and India on the Brahmaputra
  81. 81. Bhutan’s main resource is water and gravity……
  82. 82. Gross national happiness is very high…
  83. 83. • “Bhutan’s ability to harness the hydropower resources has been made possible because of the close and friendly ties with its neighbour India. India has been the lead donor in providing both technical and financial assistance to develop the numerous hydro power projects in Bhutan. The relationship developed in the hydro power sector has been a win- win situation for both the countries. India has a huge power shortage while Bhutan a large hydro power potential.”• GoI has funded the construction of the major hydropower facilities. The scheme used to finance these facilities was 40% grant and 60% loan (20 years maturity and 9 percent interest rate in rupees).• Direct sale of electricity (with installed capacity of about 300mw) contributed as high as about 45% of the gross national revenue during the 8th Plan (1997-2002), mainly from its export to India. The 1020 mw Tala project came on line in 2007 (and led to 23% growth in GDP!)
  84. 84. Sharing benefits…• An international success – Bhutan and India• An international failure – Nepal and India• An international possibility – China and India on the Brahmaputra
  85. 85. The (shameful) case of Arun III • A medium-size project (400 mw) • Nepal relied on “international donors” so that it would not be in India’s hands. • The World Bank abandoned Nepal on the altar of political expediency…. • The fig-leaf was “the project is too big for Nepal” (although Bhutan’s Tala, 2.5 times as large as Arun, proved not to be “too big” for the economy of Bhutan, which is 1/8th that of Nepal…”)
  86. 86. Although, ofcourse, theWorld Bank’swithdrawal really hadmore to dowith this…. As told here….
  87. 87. Happily it looks as though Nepal is finally learning from Bhutan….
  88. 88. Sharing benefits…• An international success – Bhutan and India• An international failure – Nepal and India• An international possibility – China and India on the Brahmaputra
  89. 89. TRANSFER TO YANGTZE?: Would have to pump over 8000 Yangtze river feet! ENERGY: IMPACT ON INDIA/BD?: 40,000 mw at Big(a)70% of flow comes below the border Bend: (b) Some augmentation of low flows Sell to India?
  90. 90. Overall Conclusions• Tensions over transboundary waters are growing between countries and within countries
  91. 91. • These tensions raise the specter of water wars…• The internal challenges are often as serious as the international ones (except that provinces do not – usually -- have armies)
  92. 92. • To move from conflict to cooperation: – In some cases sharing water can be the solution, in others sharing benefits – Solutions almost always involve both soft (treaties, institutions) and hard (infrastructure) components – External “full-service” partners (such as the World Bank) have played and could play facilitating roles• Cooperation: – Is dependent on the broader set of relationships between countries and – Can contribute to improving such relationships “beyond the river” – Politicians are going to have the maturity to lower the temperature…
  93. 93. President Ayub Khan• “We have been able to get the best that was possible…”• “Very often the best is the enemy of the good, and in this case we have accepted the good after careful and realistic appreciation of our entire overall situation”• “The basis of this agreement is realism and pragmatism…”
  94. 94. • Politicians (and people and the media) are going to have to learn to let bygones be bygones…• Santayana: – “those who do not learn their history will be condemned to repeat it…”
  95. 95. • I am a South African of Irish descent: • Conor Cruise O’Brien: – In Ireland we have learned our history so well that we are condemned to repeat it, endlessly • Nelson Mandela: – Acknowledge the past but do not become a prisoner to it… – Move on and focus on creating a better future for all… – If this example is followed in the sub- continent, water can be a source of cooperation and development…. • For Indians and Pakistanis and • For Sindhis and Punjabis….

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