Paul - Electricty or Portable Fuel?

547 views

Published on

Don Paul, Director of the USC Energy Institute and former CTO, presented at the GW Solar Institute Symposium on April 19, 2010. More information at solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.html

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
547
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
26
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
6
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • All of the growth in oil demand comes from non-OECD, with China contributing 43%, the Middle East & India each about 20% & other emerging Asian economies most of the rest
  • Paul - Electricty or Portable Fuel?

    1. 1. Donald L. Paul, Executive Director, University of Southern California Energy Institute William M. Keck Chair of Energy Resources George Washington University Solar Symposium Solar Transportation - Electricity or Portable Fuel?
    2. 2. Themes <ul><li>Energy system fundamentals: complexity, scale, and time </li></ul><ul><li>Globalization of demand </li></ul><ul><li>Supply chain structures and characteristics </li></ul><ul><li>Implications </li></ul>
    3. 3. Complexity Science and Technology + Economics and Business + Society and Environment + Policy and Government
    4. 4. Scale: trillions….. <ul><li>Delivering a trillion gallons of fuel per year </li></ul><ul><li>Finding and developing the next trillion barrels of oil </li></ul><ul><li>Adding the next trillion(s) watts of power generation </li></ul><ul><li>Eliminating a trillion tons of produced CO2 </li></ul><ul><li>Investing more than $25 trillion in capital </li></ul>
    5. 5. Scale: even “1% matters” <ul><li>Adding 1% to global oil reserves requires about $200 billion in exploration and production investment </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. ethanol production is about 1% of total global fuel liquids production </li></ul><ul><li>2.5 million EVs would displace about 1% of US fuel demand </li></ul>
    6. 6. Existing supply and demand infrastructure New resources, infrastructures, and paradigms Multiple generations of technology History, the present, and the future always co-exist Time
    7. 7. Globalization of demand: growth and the Great Recession
    8. 8. -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 China Middle East India Other Asia Latin America E. Europe/Eurasia Africa OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Million b/d Source: IEA, WEO 2008 Globalization of demand: projected fuel growth from 2006 to 2030
    9. 9. Fuel supply chains <ul><li>Natural resource development and production </li></ul><ul><li>Liquid fuel production and distribution </li></ul><ul><li>Gas production and distribution </li></ul><ul><li>Electricity production and distribution </li></ul>
    10. 10. Fuel and transport supply chains Production Infrastructure Distribution and Supply Infrastructure Vehicle Technology Platform Electricity Existing & new Existing & new New Petroleum Existing & new Existing Existing Synthetic Fuel New Existing Existing Bio-fuel Existing & new Existing & new Existing Natural Gas Existing & new Existing & new Existing & modified Hydrogen Existing & new New New
    11. 11. Implications <ul><li>Diversification is needed to reduce carbon intensity of transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Diversification is needed to increase supply security </li></ul><ul><li>Diversification is needed to meet projected supply requirements for global fuel </li></ul>
    12. 12. The challenge for liquids supply 4-7% Production Decline IEO 2008 Demand Range 2015 30 – 45 MBOE/D 2030 70-100 MBOE/D Existing Production Capacity 2007 2015 2030 Global Liquids Supply Millions B/D Source: NPC 2007 Report – The Hard Truths” - One Year Later
    13. 13. The challenge for liquids supply 4-7% Production Decline IEO 2008 Demand Range 2015 30 – 45 MBOE/D 2030 70-100 MBOE/D Existing Production Capacity 2007 2015 2030 Global Liquids Supply Millions B/D Source: NPC 2007 Report – The Hard Truths” - One Year Later Conventional non OPEC Conventional OPEC Unconventional and biofuels
    14. 14. Implications <ul><li>Diversification is needed to reduce carbon intensity of transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Diversification is needed to increase supply security </li></ul><ul><li>Diversification is needed to meet projected supply requirements for global fuel </li></ul><ul><li>Fundamentals will apply: Complexity, Scale and Time </li></ul>

    ×