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Richard Perez
U. Albany, ASRC
© Richard Perez, et al.
Richard Perez, et al.
Each square foot in New York can generate 20 kWh of
                  photovoltaic electricity per year




              ...
120 billion kWh / year


More than twice
CONED’s sales

73 million metric tons
CO2
(13 million cars)




            © Ric...
© Richard Perez
Only 0.75% of New York’s
area* would be needed to
produce all the electricity
used in the State
*using 10% PV conversion

...
© Richard Perez, et al.
9 MW
                               10 kW



Richard Perez, et al.
© Richard Perez
All US electrical energy  25,000 km2 PV
                  0.32% US Land Area




© Richard Perez
7%US                 electricity


                  Hydropower artificial lakes > 100,000 km2




© Richard Perez
All World electrical energy from solar:
                  0.07% World Land Area




© Richard Perez
© R. Perez et al.




     World energy use
     16 TW-yr
     per year
     ~ 475 exajoules
16
     ~ 460 Quads
RENEWABLES
                                                                         1,2
                                  ...
1,2
                                                                            25-70 WIND
                             © ...
© R. Perez et al.
© R. Perez et al.
© R. Perez et al.
Richard Perez, et al.
SOLAR ENERGY IS RELIABLE IN NEW YORK
© Richard Perez, et al.
ELECTRICAL DEMAND THROUGHOUT ONE YEAR




                                        Load Duration Curve




© Richard Perez ...
ELECTRICAL DEMAND THROUGHOUT ONE YEAR




                                      NO PV
                                    ...
PV IMPACT AT 10% CAPCITY PENETRATION




                                                NO PV
                           ...
Minimal Load Management
                                              or Storage




                                     ...
SOLAR ENERGY IS RELIABLE IN NEW YORK




                                              Heat wave



                    © ...
Heat wave



© Richard Perez, et al.


                           A/C electrical
                           demand peak
NO PV
                                                PV at 10% Peak penetration   8760 hours




                   Site-...
SATELLITE-DERIVED SOLAR RESOURCE




                                                                                     ...
2007 – Real Time
Clean Power Research
SolarAnywhere R
                                                                    ...
Summer 2006 peak demand day
New York City
                 12000

                 11500

                 11000
L o a d (...
Commonwealth Edison
                                                            Minnesota Power and Light
                ...
Traditional View
Lowest Capacity
Random Energy
output Power Plant

                     Highest Capacity
                 ...
Idaho Power Company
                   Nevada Power
           Pacific Gas & Electric
      S.Diego Gas & Electric Co
    ...
Northeast US – AUG 14th, 2003



Perez et al., ASRC
Toronto

Detroit
                              Boston


Cleveland
                       NYC




                      © R...
X                                    Sub-Island with enough generation to meet demand
                                    ...
NYC           $1 Billion
                     (Reuters)
                     $1.1 Billion
                     (The Guardi...
Perez et al., ASRC
18:00 GMT
                                    17:00 GMT



As little as 500 MW of
PV dispersed around
the major northeaste...
© Richard Perez, et al.
SHORT-TERM VARIABILITY
                           IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POWER GRID




© Richard Perez, et al.
Very High Penetration
     Storage & Load Management
                                2000
                               1...
Richard Perez, et al.
Richard Perez, et al.
What is the value of PV for New York?
 Value to                        S ystem O w n ers   U tility   C on stitu en ts


 ...
What is the value of PV for New York?
 Value to                        S ystem O w n ers   U tility   C on stitu en ts


 ...
What is the value of PV for New York?
 Value to                        S ystem O w n ers   U tility   C on stitu en ts


 ...
What is the value of PV for New York?
                                 S ystem O w n ers   U tility   C on stitu en ts


 ...
What is the value of PV for New York?
                                 S ystem O w n ers   U tility   C on stitu en ts


 ...
What is the value of PV for New York?
                                 S ystem O w n ers   U tility   C on stitu en ts


 ...
What is the value of PV for New York?
                                 S ystem O w n ers   U tility   C on stitu en ts


 ...
What is the value of PV for New York?
                              S ystem O w n ers   U tility   C on stitu en ts


    ...
Long-term, system-wide rate protection
Environmental health benefits
Business development opportunities (job and business ...
Long-term, system-wide rate protection
Environmental health benefits
Business development opportunities (job and business ...
3 CASE STUDIES


                                       CAPITAL



                  WEST

                               ...
ENERGY PRODUCTION VALUE



  LBMP
       Location Based
       Marginal Pricing




                                      ...
ENERGY PRODUCTION VALUE


 CONGESTION
                          Penalty




                                              ...
GENERATION CAPACITY VALUE




               CAPITAL



WEST

                         LONG
                         ISLAN...
ELCC-SLC COMPOSITE CAPACITY CREDIT
                                                                                       ...
GENERATION CAPACITY VALUE

Unlike energy, is not a directly traded commodity

But it can be estimated:

         •    NYIS...
ALL YEAR                         P V G e o m e try            AVERAGE
                                              o

   ...
Long-term, system-wide rate protection
Environmental health benefits
Business development opportunities (job and
business ...
Thanks for your attention
Richard Perez | Practical Solar Analysis
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Richard Perez | Practical Solar Analysis

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Richard Perez | Practical Solar Analysis

  1. 1. Richard Perez U. Albany, ASRC
  2. 2. © Richard Perez, et al.
  3. 3. Richard Perez, et al.
  4. 4. Each square foot in New York can generate 20 kWh of photovoltaic electricity per year Photograph courtesy of AltPower, Inc. Richard Perez, et al.
  5. 5. 120 billion kWh / year More than twice CONED’s sales 73 million metric tons CO2 (13 million cars) © Richard Perez
  6. 6. © Richard Perez
  7. 7. Only 0.75% of New York’s area* would be needed to produce all the electricity used in the State *using 10% PV conversion Buildings, parking lots and roadways cover almost 3% of New York’s area © Richard Perez
  8. 8. © Richard Perez, et al.
  9. 9. 9 MW 10 kW Richard Perez, et al.
  10. 10. © Richard Perez
  11. 11. All US electrical energy  25,000 km2 PV 0.32% US Land Area © Richard Perez
  12. 12. 7%US electricity Hydropower artificial lakes > 100,000 km2 © Richard Perez
  13. 13. All World electrical energy from solar: 0.07% World Land Area © Richard Perez
  14. 14. © R. Perez et al. World energy use 16 TW-yr per year ~ 475 exajoules 16 ~ 460 Quads
  15. 15. RENEWABLES 1,2 25-70 WIND © R. Perez et al. per year Waves11,3 215 0.2-2 total Natural Gas 1,8 3 -11 per year 240 OTEC1,4 total Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year ANWR Biomass 1,5 3 – 4 per year 16 90-300 HYDRO 1,6 Total 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7 0.3 per year Uranium 1,9 900 FINITE ENERGY Total reserve RESERVES COAL 1,8
  16. 16. 1,2 25-70 WIND © R. Perez et al. per year Waves11,3 215 0.2-2 total SOLAR 10 Natural Gas 1,8 23,000 per year 3 -11 per year 240 OTEC1,4 total Petroleum 1,8 2 – 6 per year ANWR World energy use 16 TW-yr Biomass 1,5 per year 3 – 4 per year 90-300 HYDRO 1,6 Total 0.3 – 2 per year TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7 0.3 per year Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve COAL 1,8
  17. 17. © R. Perez et al.
  18. 18. © R. Perez et al.
  19. 19. © R. Perez et al.
  20. 20. Richard Perez, et al.
  21. 21. SOLAR ENERGY IS RELIABLE IN NEW YORK
  22. 22. © Richard Perez, et al.
  23. 23. ELECTRICAL DEMAND THROUGHOUT ONE YEAR Load Duration Curve © Richard Perez et al.
  24. 24. ELECTRICAL DEMAND THROUGHOUT ONE YEAR NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration 8760 hours © Richard Perez et al.
  25. 25. PV IMPACT AT 10% CAPCITY PENETRATION NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration 8760 hours NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration Displacing highest stress 8760 hours © Richard Perez et al.
  26. 26. Minimal Load Management or Storage NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration Displacing highest stress 8760 hours © Richard Perez et al.
  27. 27. SOLAR ENERGY IS RELIABLE IN NEW YORK Heat wave © Richard Perez, et al. A/C electrical demand peak
  28. 28. Heat wave © Richard Perez, et al. A/C electrical demand peak
  29. 29. NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration 8760 hours Site-time specific PV output information Typical (TMY) data not suitable © Richard Perez, et al.
  30. 30. SATELLITE-DERIVED SOLAR RESOURCE TILTED IRRADIANCE Modeled Irradiance MODELS DAYLIGHT Luminous efficacy 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 Clear low sun blue scale -60 -80 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Sky luminance Vertical Diffuse Angular Distribution Illuminances © R. Perez et al
  31. 31. 2007 – Real Time Clean Power Research SolarAnywhere R TILTED IRRADIANCE Modeled Irradiance MODELS DAYLIGHT 1-hour to 7-Day Forecasts Luminous efficacy 1998 – 2006 80 60 NSRDB NREL 40 20 0 -20 -40 Clear low sun blue scale -60 -80 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Sky luminance Vertical Diffuse Angular Distribution Illuminances © R. Perez et al
  32. 32. Summer 2006 peak demand day New York City 12000 11500 11000 L o a d (M W ) 10500 10000 9500 9000 NYC L O A D 8500 NYC L O A D with 1 0 0 0 M W P V 8000 © Richard Perez, et al.
  33. 33. Commonwealth Edison Minnesota Power and Light HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC Indianapolis Power & Light First Energy Wisconsin Public Service Corp Central Illinois Light Co Black Hills Corporation Wisconsin Electric Power Co Idaho Power Company Northern States Power Ameren Seattle Dept. of Lighting Illinois Power Company Bonneville Power Administration Portland General Central Maine Power Consolidated Edison Orange and Rockland Cambridge Electric Light Co Boston Edison Tucson Electric United Illuminating Co Salt River Project Rochester Gas & Electric Arizona Public Service SMUD S.Diego Gas & Electric Co Tennessee Valley Authority Pacific Gas & Electric City of Chattanooga Nevada Power Jacksonville Electric Authority Tampa Electric Florida Power and Light Lincoln Electric System Colorado Public Service Co Omaha Public Power District Golden Spread Electric Coop City of Austin © Richard Perez et al., ASRC
  34. 34. Traditional View Lowest Capacity Random Energy output Power Plant Highest Capacity ENERGY Ideally Dispatchable Power Plant source: RReDC CAPACITY Effective View © Richard Perez, et al.
  35. 35. Idaho Power Company Nevada Power Pacific Gas & Electric S.Diego Gas & Electric Co EFFECTIVE CAPACITY SMUD Rochester Gas & Electric Omaha Public Power District 1991-2003 tendencies Arizona Public Service Golden Spread Electric Coop Colorado Public Service Co Salt River Project Lincoln Electric System Illinois Power Company United Illuminating Co Tucson Electric Ameren Boston Edison Cambridge Electric Light Co Northern States Power Wisconsin Electric Power Co Orange and Rockland Central Illinois Light Co Black Hills Corporation Wisconsin Public Service Corp Consolidated Edison First Energy Florida Power and Light City of Chattanooga Indianapolis Power & Light Tampa Electric Commonwealth Edison Hawaiian Electric Central Maine Power 2000-2005 Jacksonville Electric Authority Anomaly Authority Tennesee Valley 2002-03 Portland General experimental Minnesota Power and Light values Bonneville Power Administration . 1991-estimates Seattle Dept. of Lighting 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% © Richard Perez et al., ASRC 2-axis-tracking reference ELCC
  36. 36. Northeast US – AUG 14th, 2003 Perez et al., ASRC
  37. 37. Toronto Detroit Boston Cleveland NYC © Richard Perez, et al.
  38. 38. X Sub-Island with enough generation to meet demand Sub-Islands with insufficient generation to meet demand Boston Toronto Detroit NYC Cleveland Northeast Electrical Island Boundary © Richard Perez, et al.
  39. 39. NYC $1 Billion (Reuters) $1.1 Billion (The Guardian) US-Can $6.8 - $10.3 B (ICF Consulting) Perez et al., ASRC
  40. 40. Perez et al., ASRC
  41. 41. 18:00 GMT 17:00 GMT As little as 500 MW of PV dispersed around the major northeastern cities would have prevented the blackout An investment of $ 3 billion 20:00 GMT 19:00 GMT Outage cost $ 8 billion © Richard Perez, et al.
  42. 42. © Richard Perez, et al.
  43. 43. SHORT-TERM VARIABILITY IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POWER GRID © Richard Perez, et al.
  44. 44. Very High Penetration Storage & Load Management 2000 16000 S o la r G e ne ra tio n P e a king s to ra ge utiliza tio n No rma l s to ra ge o r v a ria ble ge n E xc e s s s o la r to s to ra ge Base Load 12000 1500 N et L o ad (M W ) 8000 1000 4000 500 0 0 -4000 -5 0 0 © Richard Perez, et al.
  45. 45. Richard Perez, et al.
  46. 46. Richard Perez, et al.
  47. 47. What is the value of PV for New York? Value to S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts cost E qu ipm en t benefit cost In cen tives benefit cost U tility B ill benefit cost T ax E ffects benefit U tility C ost S avin gs benefit C on stitu en t B en efits N et B en efit ??? ??? ??? © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  48. 48. What is the value of PV for New York? Value to S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts cost E qu ipm en t benefit cost In cen tives benefit cost U tility B ill benefit cost T ax E ffects benefit U tility C ost S avin gs benefit C on stitu en t B en efits N et B en efit ??? ??? ??? © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  49. 49. What is the value of PV for New York? Value to S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts cost E qu ipm en t benefit cost In cen tives benefit cost U tility B ill benefit cost T ax E ffects benefit U tility C ost S avin gs benefit C on stitu en t B en efits N et B en efit ??? ??? ??? © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  50. 50. What is the value of PV for New York? S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts cost E qu ipm en t benefit cost In cen tives benefit cost U tility B ill benefit cost T ax E ffects benefit U tility C ost S avin gs benefit C on stitu en t B en efits N et B en efit ??? ??? ??? © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  51. 51. What is the value of PV for New York? S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts cost E qu ipm en t benefit cost In cen tives benefit cost U tility B ill benefit cost T ax E ffects benefit U tility C ost S avin gs benefit C on stitu en t B en efits N et B en efit ??? ??? ??? © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  52. 52. What is the value of PV for New York? S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts cost E qu ipm en t benefit cost In cen tives benefit cost U tility B ill benefit cost T ax E ffects benefit U tility C ost S avin gs benefit C on stitu en t B en efits N et B en efit ??? ??? ??? © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  53. 53. What is the value of PV for New York? S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts cost E qu ipm en t benefit cost In cen tives benefit cost U tility B ill benefit cost T ax E ffects benefit U tility C ost S avin gs benefit C on stitu en t B en efits N et B en efit ??? ??? ??? © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  54. 54. What is the value of PV for New York? S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts cost E qu ipm en t benefit cost In cen tives benefit cost U tility B ill benefit cost T ax E ffects benefit U tility C ost S avin gs benefit C on stitu en t B en efits Energy Production Value N et B en efit ??? ??? ??? Generation Capacity Value T&D capacity deferral value Loss savings Environmental compliance value Fuel price hedge protection © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  55. 55. Long-term, system-wide rate protection Environmental health benefits Business development opportunities (job and business creation) Use of in-state resource and reduction of state imports Power grid security enhancement Disaster recovery S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts cost E qu ipm en t benefit cost In cen tives benefit cost U tility B ill benefit cost T ax E ffects benefit U tility C ost S avin gs benefit C on stitu en t B en efits Energy Production Value N et B en efit ??? ??? ??? Generation Capacity Value T&D capacity deferral value Loss savings INITIAL EVALUATION Environmental compliance value Fuel price hedge protection © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  56. 56. Long-term, system-wide rate protection Environmental health benefits Business development opportunities (job and business creation) Use of in-state resource and reduction of state imports What is the value of PV for New York? Power grid security enhancement Disaster recovery S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts cost E qu ipm en t benefit cost In cen tives benefit cost U tility B ill benefit cost T ax E ffects benefit U tility C ost S avin gs benefit C on stitu en t B en efits Energy Production Value N et B en efit ??? ??? ??? Generation Capacity Value T&D capacity deferral value Loss savings INITIAL EVALUATION Environmental compliance value Fuel price hedge protection © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  57. 57. 3 CASE STUDIES CAPITAL WEST LONG ISLAND Energy Production Value Generation Capacity Value T&D capacity deferral value Loss savings INITIAL EVALUATION Environmental compliance value Fuel price hedge protection © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  58. 58. ENERGY PRODUCTION VALUE LBMP Location Based Marginal Pricing CAPITAL WEST LONG PV Value / MWh ISLAND ALL YEAR P V G e o m e try AVERAGE o S o u th e s t 3 0 T ilt L o c a tio n P R IC E L o n g Is la n d $ 109 $ 93 C a p ita l $ 78 $ 73 W est $ 62 $ 55 SUMMER P V G e o m e try AVERAGE o S o u th e s t 3 0 T ilt L o c a tio n P R IC E L o n g Is la n d $ 123 $ 91 C a p ita l $ 81 $ 69 W est $ 73 $ 60 © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  59. 59. ENERGY PRODUCTION VALUE CONGESTION Penalty CAPITAL WEST LONG PV Value / MWh ISLAND ALL YEAR PV Geometry AVERAGE Southest 30o Tilt Location PRICE Long Island $ (34) $ (24) Capital $ (7) $ (8) West $ (2) $ (2) SUMMER PV Geometry AVERAGE Southest 30o Tilt Location PRICE Long Island $ (39) $ (19) Capital $ (2) $ (1) West $ - $ - © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  60. 60. GENERATION CAPACITY VALUE CAPITAL WEST LONG ISLAND © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  61. 61. ELCC-SLC COMPOSITE CAPACITY CREDIT CAPITAL WEST LONG ISLAND 100% C apac ity C redit W es t L.Is land C apac ity C redit L.Is land C apac ity C redit C apital C apac ity C redit C apital C apac ity F ac tor W es t C apac ity F ac tor L.Is land 80% C apac ity F ac tor L.Is land C apac ity F ac tor C apital C a p a c ity C re d it 60% 40% 20% 0% 2% 5% 10% 15% 20% G rid P e n e tra tio n © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  62. 62. GENERATION CAPACITY VALUE Unlike energy, is not a directly traded commodity But it can be estimated: • NYISO DR programs provide up to $100 per kW per year for stand-by customer-sited capacity that may, or may not be called upon. • Demand-based tariffs e.g., $180/kW per year upstate (National Grid) and $250/kW per year downstate (ConEdison). © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  63. 63. ALL YEAR P V G e o m e try AVERAGE o GENERATION iltCAPACITY3VALUE S o u th e s t 3 0 T L o c a tio n P R IC E L o n g Is la n d $ 109 $ 9 C a p ita l $ 78 $ 73 W est $ 62 $ 55 Unlike energy,enot try directlyVtraded commodity PV G om e a SUMMER A ERAGE o S o u th e s t 3 0 T ilt L o c a tio n P R IC E But it can be estimated: $ L o n g Is la n d $ 123 91 C a p ita l $ 81 $ 69 W est $ 73 $ 60 • NYISO DR programs provide up to $100 per kW per year for stand-by customer-sited capacity that may, or may not be called upon. • Demand-based tarrifs e.g., $180/kW per year upstate 10.9 ¢ per kWh Displaced energy year downstate (National Grid) and $250/kW per (ConEdison). + 4.5 ¢ per kWh Displaced capacity 15.4 ¢ per kWh value of net metered systems in L.I. Net-metered retail rate in L. I.  20 ¢ per kWh X © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  64. 64. Long-term, system-wide rate protection Environmental health benefits Business development opportunities (job and business creation) Energy Production Value Use of in-state resource and reduction of state Generation Capacity Value imports T&D capacity deferral value Power grid security77% enhancement Loss savings Disaster recovery Very likely that utility Environmental compliance value VALUE TO COST RATIO Fuel price hedge protection >>100% Value to Cost Ratio 15.4 ¢ per kWh Value to utility 77% Net-metered retail to utility I.  Cost rate in L. 20 ¢ per kWh © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
  65. 65. Thanks for your attention

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