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IDMP CEE follow-up workshop:

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IDMP CEE follow-up workshop:

  1. 1. IDMP/DMCSEE FOLLOW-UP TOPICS From ideas to proposal 4th Workshop Integrated Drought Management Programme in Central and Eastern Europe Bucharest, Romania, April 19-22, 2015 dr. Andreja Sušnik Meteorological Office Drought management center for SEE Europe andreja.susnik@gov.si
  2. 2. IDMP follow-up & joint efforts with DMCSEE Widden the pool Main topics Discussion and ideas 1st round of discussion
  3. 3. DMCSEE course of activities 2013-2015
  4. 4. Widden the pool 4th DMCSEE International Steering Committee meeting and 3rd Global Water Partnership IDMP-CEE workshop, Hungary, Budapest, 2 – 4 October 2014
  5. 5. Document (project topics) launched by GWP & DMCSEE – February 2015 (deadline for comments, suggestions until 31st March 2015). o IDMP GWP CEE partners & DMCSEE steering committee (including ad hoc working group) were invited to participate; o Project consultant funded by GWP; o Content: results of IDMP CEE with the goal to increase the capacity of CEE to adapt to climatic variability by enhancing resilience to drought; o Outcomes of DMCSEE projects & operational work. 4 major thematic areas were proposed: o DROUGHT MONITORING o UPGRADING DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT (DROUGHT RISK ATLAS FOR CEE/SEE) o DROUGHT COST ASSESSMENT o DROUGHT MANAGEMENT DISSEMINATION Project topics/ideas 5
  6. 6. 3rd PRG comments & suggestions: o IDMP CEE Activities: Lot of work is half-way, but very valuable and can easily be lost. Follow-up is urgently required. o Development pro-active Drought Management Plan in an integrated land and water management framework, incl. WFD RBMPs o Thinking in a two temporal scales modes - Operational mode (ongoing (multiple-year) drought, next year drought) - Strategic mode (far future drought, prepared for global change). o Corner stones activities (10 steps of drought DMP) o How to write winning proposal? (again steps), consortium, core group/coordinator, guidelines… IDMP wrap up for follow-up 6
  7. 7. Let‘s check our draft concept!
  8. 8. IDMP follow-up & joint efforts with DMCSEE Widden the pool Main topics Discussion and ideas 1st round of discussion
  9. 9. Description: o Development of products for improved drought monitoring end early warning system (operational mode?) in CEE and SEE – connection to DMCSEE and EDO platforms. All types of drought monitoring! o Focus on REMOTE SENSING (Eumetsat – Land monitoring services, Copernicus, higher spatial/temporal resolution). o IDMP CEE: demonstration project 5.5 (agricultural drought) & follow up ideas Implementation in follow-up project: o State-of-the-art analysis (CEE /SEE RS monitoring, case studies). o Promote new RS products (experimental fields/verification). o Analysis of existing RS methodologies in the region (case studies). o Combining various approaches (RS, field measurements, crop simulation models) to estimate vegetation drought status. o Recommendations for operational use of RS in drought monitoring in the region. Thematic area 1: Drought monitoring („working title“) 9
  10. 10. Situation of Combined Drought Indicator in Europe - 3rd ten-day period of March 2015
  11. 11. EDO key points/next steps o EDO is implemented as a multi-scale distributed system based on interoperable map servers. o Core indicators are implemented at all scales. They are complemented by regionally relevant indicators. o Continuous stakeholder involvement ensures both sound results and the acceptance of the system. EDO next Steps: o Increase the number of indicators at European level. o Enlarge the number of interoperable observatories. o Improve medium to long-range forecasting o Hazard & risk analysis (incl. CC scenarios)
  12. 12. Description: o Civil Protection Mechanism, EC decision (No. 1313/2013/EU) requires from the Member States (in Article 6) to prepare RISK ASSESSMENTS on national and sub national levels ( by the end of 2015); update every three years. o Obligation of each government to prepare the disaster risk assessment. List of disasters are left to decision of the member states (next reporting cycle – end of 2018). Implementation in follow-up project (outcomes): o State-of–the-art analysis. o Promotion of the same approach - drought risk assessment according to ECs Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management (3 steps approach: risk identification - risk analysis – risk evaluation). o Cooperation with “Civil protection” - responsible for preparation of the “risk assessment plans” in countries. Thematic area 2: Upgrading drought risk assessment 13
  13. 13. Regional multisectoral drought impacts In past decades the drought-related damages in the region of South-Eastern Europe (SEE) have had large impact on the economy and welfare, mainly reflected in destroyed crops and devastaded farmland, disturbed water-supply, hydroenergy, transport, …. Vir: Tuzla – problemi sa vodoopskrbo. Sutra, 2011 Last DMCSEE projects mainly focused on agriculture, limited in forestry.
  14. 14. From droughts to floods in SEE World Bank. 2015. SEE Regular Economic Report Obrenovac, Serbia Obrenovac, Serbia
  15. 15. Description: o Developing Drought Risk Atlas for SEE and CEE. o While this process can take up to 3 years (example from USA) it is envisaged to first choose “pilot areas” where foundations for such an atlas will be developed. o Drought Risk Atlas as a web-based tool that provides visualizations of historic drought data for specific locations. Implementation in the follow-up project (outcomes): o Selection of a pilot areas. o Selections of drought indices. o Climate change projections. Thematic area 2.1: Drought risk atlas for CEE/SEE 16
  16. 16. Including climate change projections(EEA, 2012) Mean relative changes in water- limited crop yield simulated by the ClimateCrop model for the 2050s compared with 1961–1990 for 12 different climate models projections under the A1B emission scenario.
  17. 17. Description: o Classification of the costs related to droughts; fixed, direct and indirect, non-market. o Comparison in different pilot areas, development of common methodology. o Cost of mitigation and climate change adaptation costs. Implementation in the follow-up project (outcomes): o Methodology for assessment of the drought costs will be developed (or test already developed methodology – CONHAZ project). o Innovative financial instruments for drought risk management (insurance) o Few pilot areas within partners’ countries will be selected where methodology will be tested. o Cooperation with “economists”. o Common platform for financial instruments. Thematic area 3: Drought cost assesment 18
  18. 18. How to manage water suficit/deficit?
  19. 19. Description: o Some of the information about the current status for CEE countries can be taken for example from the two IDMP CEE outputs – Review of the current status (act. 1.2) and the Guidelines for preparation of the Drought Management Plan according to the WFD (act. 2.1) Implementation in the follow-up project: o Proposed scheme would be adjusted for the region CEE&SEE. o Partners within the project/activity will update the scheme according to their current status. o Policy recommendations for improvement of the current drought management within each country will be prepared and presented to the decision-makers (on a regional and national level). Thematic area 4: Drought management 20
  20. 20. Where to include drought management? o The integrated water resources management is advocated in EU WFD, and number of policies however the implementation of that approach is missing; o to propose management options (decision support for suppliers and authorities).
  21. 21. …based on identified weaknesses Guidelines for DMP o To launch the initiatives focused on harmonization of methods used for development of the main elements of DMP: o assessment of historical drought events, o drought indicator system in connection with drought monitoring, o thresholds for classification of drought stages, o early warning system. o To develop guidelines for the weakest elements of planning process: o risk assessment (single and multiply risks assessment) o climate change assessment o To initiate demonstration projects focused on quantitative water management issues (e.g. e-flows, water accounts)
  22. 22. http://www.droughtmanagement.info/ Activity 7.1: Developing a Compendium of good practices 10 Countries that form GWP Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) – 7 steps???
  23. 23. Description: o New approaches how to get to the end users; how to transfer the knowledge, experiences, products not only to research institutes, ministries, etc. but to the stakeholders which can use the products (farmers, insurance companies, water managers, public authorities, …). o From experiences in IDMP CEE - still a lot to do also in terms of raising awareness about drought conditions in the region (IDMP Helpdesk) Implementation in the follow-up project: o Raising awareness campaigns (involving national TVs, radios, social media) o Journalist workshop o Decision makers workshop (WMO, FAO?) o Specialized seminars for end users (e.g. farmers), open days o Organize a field visit to an already working project o Social media campaign o Toolbox for children Thematic area (1-4): Dissemination – end users 24
  24. 24. Dissemination platforms http://www.gwp.org/en/GWP-CEE/IDMPCEE/
  25. 25. www.dmcsee.org
  26. 26.  Hot spot - short summary, short insight of possible circumstances of drought at the time of issue.  Additional and auxiliary information (such as methodology used, more detailed information on water balance or temperature situation)  Report on impacts (more about agricultural drought impacts is missing!)  Outlook Drought Bulletin for SE Europe (mission of DMCSEE adhoc group)
  27. 27. Instructions for better drought management and drought policy
  28. 28. IDMP follow-up & joint efforts with DMCSEE Widden the pool Main topics Discussion and ideas (work in groups) 1st round of discussion
  29. 29. Partners proposals 31
  30. 30. 1. Monitoring : Early drought warning in Europe/SEE (drought & floods) o active countries participation in existing platforms (global, regional – EDO, DMCSEE), exchange information inside/outside the countries; o making best use of existing structures and water management instruments (River Basin and Flood Risk Management Plans, Drought and water scarcity) o further research requirements – e.g. remote sensing, drought forecast... 2. Drought risk assessment 2.1 Drought Atlas (SE Europe)!! 3. Drought costs o Economic costs of drought /adaptation o Financial instruments. Ideas for discussion – working in 4 groups 32
  31. 31. Ideas for discussion 4. Drought management as a part of national legislation (national commitments) o Europe/WFD/EU policy, UNCCD/NAP/RAP, Danube strategy; o Joint understanding (i.e. on scenarios and related impacts) and shared knowledge base is essential for joint decision making (flood & drought management synergies); o Socio-economic developments should be included; o How to reach political commitment? Support of WMO, UNCCD, FAO,…. Common projects/calls o GWP/IDMP, EUMETSAT, Danube, ARIMNET, Interreg, Horizon 2020, LIFE+; o secondment of staff (WMO support), o training schools (G-WADI, DMCSEE). Public awareness and stakeholders cooperation o drought news/information sharing/campaigns; o networks/publications .
  32. 32. From project idea… Do you have a great project idea based on a demand from the community and it fits into the thematic areas of project calls? 35http://www.migration4development.org/docs/planning_and_design_process.jpg IDMP/CEE follow-up project proposal

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