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Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue by Lučka Kajfež Bogataj


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Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue by Lučka Kajfež Bogataj

  1. 1. Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue<br />Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia<br />former IPCC WG2 vicechair<br />
  2. 2. ”The Squeeze”<br />Human growth<br />20/80 dilemma<br />Ecosystems<br />60 % loss dilemma<br />Climate<br />550/450/350 dilemma<br />Surprise<br />99/1 dilemma<br />
  3. 3. Climate change is not isolated from other problems: the importance of converging trends<br /><ul><li>Population dynamics: Until 2050 population growth will lead to a world population between 8.7 and 9.3 billion people.
  4. 4. Resource consumption: rise in consumption of energy and resources: it is expected that by 2030 primary energy needs will increase by more than 50%.
  5. 5. Urbanisation is advancing: By 2030 up to 60% of the world’s population could be living in cities. The largest growth in city populations ~ 50% will be in Africa and Asia.
  6. 6. Result: Number of destabilising, mutually amplifying factors</li></li></ul><li>Increased demand <br />50% by 2030 (IEA)<br />Energy<br />Climate Change<br />Water<br />Increased demand <br />30% by 2030<br />(IFPRI)<br />Food<br />Increased demand <br />50% by 2030<br />(FAO)<br />Key Questions<br />Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably?<br />Can we cope with the future demands on water?<br />Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty?<br />Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change?<br />Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems?<br />Biodiversity<br /> The Perfect Storm?<br />(Beddington, 2009)<br />
  7. 7. Climate Change<br /><ul><li>Is the climate change an environmental issue or becomes to be a threat to international peace and security? </li></li></ul><li>Global temperature rise<br />+2°<br />PROBLEMATIC<br /><ul><li> 1 - 2 billion additional people with water stress
  8. 8. Impacts on cereal productivity at low latitudes
  9. 9. Increased coastal flooding and storms
  10. 10. Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw</li></ul>DISASTROUS<br /><ul><li> A 16ºC increase in the Arctic
  11. 11. 1.1 - 3.2 billion additional people with water stress
  12. 12. Widespread coral mortality; risk of major extinctions around the globe
  13. 13. Substantial global impact on major crops
  14. 14. Long-term prospect of sea level rise</li></ul>+4°<br />
  15. 15. Risks in key sectors<br />Agriculture:Decreasing agricultural production, economic decline, more unempoyment, food shortages, increasing competition of demand<br />Water: decresing water availability, changes in precipitation, melting of glaciers, extreme weather events, increasing competition of demand <br />Climate change<br />Urban space<br />Energy<br />Infrastructure<br />transport<br />Governance<br />Water<br />Food <br />Land use<br />Infrastructure, energy supply and transport: environmental change due to climate change increases running costs (damages, flooding etc) or reduces energy production (hydro)<br />Urbanisation: Increasing disaster risks, health risks, growing population dynamics, growing slums<br />
  16. 16. The water conflict scenario<br /><ul><li>The scarcity of water is replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations in an increasingly urbanized world
  17. 17. The danger of international competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably. The increased demand for water could produce intense competition for this essential substance</li></ul><br />
  18. 18. Climate change effects & migration: Hotspots & Trajectories<br />Main trajectories<br />WGBU 2007 (modified)<br />
  19. 19. Climate Change as a Threat<br />Climate change<br /><ul><li>is a threat multiplier
  20. 20. will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many societies
  21. 21. increases number and intensity of conflicts and reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution
  22. 22. leads to new lines of conflict in the international arena</li></li></ul><li>Water Scarcity<br />Demography<br />Crop Decline<br />Hunger<br />Coastal Risks<br />Recent Conflicts<br />A Multiplier for Instability<br />
  23. 23. National Security – Climate change linkages<br /><ul><li>Climate change could trigger national and international distributional conflicts and intensify problems already hard to manage such as state failure, the erosion of social order, and rising violence
  24. 24. Climate change will degrade human security and livelihoods via increased risks of disasters, food insecurity, energy poverty etc. </li></li></ul><li>Recommendation for states policies<br /><ul><li>In every country National Security Strategy should directly address the threat of climate change to the state’s national security interests.
  25. 25. Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events
  26. 26. Evaluate the capacity of all levels of government and other institutions to respond to the consequences of climate change. </li></li></ul><li>Conclusions<br /><ul><li>There is no military solution to climate security, but mainly disaster prevention through good governance, human rights, de-marginalization and empowerment
  27. 27. Conflict prevention regarding climate change means mitigation and adaptation – ambitious global climate policy must be put into operation
  28. 28. Mitigation and adaptation serve as prevention of non-climate-change-connected threats and conflicts e.g. energy security, water and food security </li>