Central Asia Experiences in Drought Management by Galina Stulina, SIC - ICWC, GWP Central Asia and Caucasus

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Central Asia Experiences in Drought Management by Galina Stulina, SIC - ICWC, GWP Central Asia and Caucasus

  1. 1. Central Asia experiences In drought management Vadim Sokolov, Galina Stulina GPW, SIC ICWC Bratislava October, 2012
  2. 2. Central AsiaCentral Asia is region, where drought is routine condition of lifeand crop production and agricultural production are adapted tosuch enormous climatic conditions.
  3. 3. The Basic Indicators of Water and Land Resources Development in the Aral Sea Basin Indicator Unit 1960 1980 1990 2010 Forecast (2020) Optimistic Pessimistic 48.5Population million 14,4 26,8 33,6 54,0 70,0 thousand 8201Irrigated area 4510 6920 7600 9330 9300 hectaresIrrigated area per capita ha/capita 0,32 0,26 0,23 0.17 0,17 0,12 109.5Total water withdrawal km3/year 60,61 120,69 116,27 104,5 117,0 91.6Including for irrigation km3/year 56,15 106,79 106,4 86,8 96,7Specific withdrawal m3/ha 12450 15430 14000 11171 9300 10400per 1 hectareSpecific withdrawal m3/capita 4270 4500 3460 2259 1935 1670per capitaGNP bln.USD 16,1 48,1 74,0 76.7 109 77,0
  4. 4. b) Climate change W N E Uzhydromet S Ano1320 > 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - 120 120 - 140 >160 Long-term changes of the annual sums of precipitations 200 Regional indicators of change of a climate 180 160 Ant13200 140 -1.2 120 -0.8 -0.4 100 0.0 0.4 80 0.8 60 1.2 1.6 40 20 N 0 W E 1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 S1.5 1 0.60.5 evaporation 0.4 0 0.2-0.5 0 -1 -0.2-1.5 -0.4 -2 -0.6-2.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999
  5. 5. Annual national temperatures increased by:• 0.29 0C every 10 years in Uzbekistan (1950– 2005);• 0.26 0C every 10 years in Kazakhstan (1936– 2005);• 0.18 0C every 10 years in Turkmenistan (1961–1995);• 0.10 0C every 10 years in Tajikistan (1940– 2005);• 0.08 0C every 10 years in Kyrgyzstan (1883– 2005).
  6. 6. 40 Суммарный сток Нарын, Карадарья, Чирчик Extreme events 35 30 1945-1965 occurrence 25км3 20 Средний 15 уровень Total Runoff of 10 5 Naryn, Karadarya 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 and Chirchik Rivers Средний период повторения маловодья 4,25 года Frequency of dry Суммарный сток Нарын, Карадарья, Чирчик year occurrence is 40.00 4.25 year on average 35.00 30.00 1980-2004 25.00 км3 20.00 Средний 15.00 уровеньFrequency of dry year 10.00 5.00occurrence is 3 year on 0.00average 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Средний период повторения маловодья 3 года
  7. 7. c) Anthropogenic drought Am u Darya River 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 mln.m3 50000 40000 Most 30000 20000 dangerous type 10000 0 of drought it’s anthropogenic, 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Pyandj+Vaksh Kerki Tuyamuyun Chatly manmade, which is Syr Darya River caused by 35000 wrong methods 30000 25000 of water mln.m3 20000 15000 managing, 10000 5000 allocation and 0 operation. 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 Total w ater resources Kal Bekabad
  8. 8. Change in landscape on the exposed bed of the Aral Sea Amudarya channel TamarixPopulus Asiana Change in vegetation. Withered trees and bushes
  9. 9. Principal directions of Climate changes program in Central Asia•Public Awareness•Adaptation
  10. 10. Forecasting activity and broad information allow designing and implementing adaptive complex. All adaptation measures related to agriculture and water should be divided on three levels:• national measures, including strategy;• regional measures (taking into account transboundary waters);• local level, especially farm level - adaptive response.
  11. 11. И зм е н е н и е п р о до л ж и т е л ь н о с т и п е р и о да в е г е т а ц и и х л о п ч а т н и к а ( С р е дн е г о с о р т а )П о п р о г н о зу H a dC M 2 н а у р о в е н ь 16 43 30 45 19 2020 г. Б а зо в ы й 20 43 29 48 21 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 С е в - в с х о ды В с х о ды - б у т о н и за ц и я Б у т о н и за ц и я - ц в е т е н и е Ц ве т е н и е р а с кр ы т и е 1 -ы х ко р о б о ч е к Р а с к р ы т и е 1 - ы х к о р о б о ч е к с о зр е в а н и е 7 0 % к о р о б о ч е к Change of growing period
  12. 12. Change in vegetation cover early ripening Early ripening variety variety Скороспелые сорта 50 50 ДниDays 0 Сев- Всходы- Базовый 0 19 43 28 42 Base option Soving- Sprouting- Budding Flowering- вариант Climate change Изменение 1915 Base option 40 43 29 28 39 42 Climate климата change 15 40 29 39 Фенологическая фаза Phenological phase Late ripening variety 80 late ripening variety 60 Days 40 Base option 20 0 Soving- Sprouting- Flowering- Budding sprouting budding opening Climate change Base option 20 47 30 64 Climate change 16 46 30 56 Phenological phase
  13. 13. 24-Apr 14-Apr 4-Apr 25-Mar Crossing over the Limits date 15-Mar 5-Mar 24-Feb Established for 14-Feb Air 4-Feb 25-Jan Temperatures 0 5 10 15 20 (оС) Tashkent average Ташкент Ср Ташкент 1 Карши Ср Карши 1Ср – present conditions, 1 – under climate changes: using data ofweather stations in Tashkent and Kashkadarya provinces)
  14. 14. Practices used by farmers Practices used by farmersFlow Measurement
  15. 15. Water monitoringand management
  16. 16. Traditional method of water saving in time of drought is “alternative” irrigation - water is applied not to each furrow, but to every other one
  17. 17. Water productivity Inflow Inflow Yield changes Productivity changes Irrigation water (growing Yield against the changes against against the productivity season) control the control control Irrigation schemes m3/ha kg/haAlternate irrigation (with filmy) 725 -20 5400 35 7.4 69Every furrow irrigation (with filmy) 915 1 5520 38 6.0 37Alternate irrigation (without filmy) 730 -20 3400 -15 4.7 6Every furrow irrigation (without filmy) 907 0 4000 0 4.4 0
  18. 18. Irrigation by water mixed with manure (local name “sharvat”). Water to irrigated field flows through a big hole, in which manure is put preliminary for proper mixing with water and following delivery to furrow 30% attempted to reduce losses by mulching of furrow or installation of polyethylene strip in head of furrow.
  19. 19. Change in area ofImproving water-allowance zonesaccuracy ofwater deliveryfrom ±10% to±2% Actual water delivery
  20. 20. Use of water by winter wheat, depending on year’s water availability
  21. 21. Regional (transboundary) management SCADA system of automation control
  22. 22. Training SeminarFarmer training in adapting to climate change
  23. 23. Stabilization and use of the dried Aral Sea bed
  24. 24. • Central Asian countries have to develop their own National Policies to deal with climate change, where the development of alternative environmentally friendly energy sources and energy efficiency should become key priorities. They should also take responsibility for financing the implementation of these policies.• Policies and activities for preventing climate change and climate change adaptation should be integrated into the socioeconomic development policies. The countries of the region should improve intersectoral and interdepartmental coordination.
  25. 25. • The transfer of new techniques and methods for climate change adaptation and emissions reduction should be combined with the transfer of relevant knowledge and skills to local experts in order to develop and establish local production, service industry, and to build capacity in whole.• The process of development and implementation of policy in the sphere of climate change should be open and transparent. Governments and governmental bodies need to hold broad consultations with communities and take into account opinions of public organizations while making decisions.

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