Identifying Dutch elm disease ‘danger-spots’ on the Isle of Manwith an agent-based model Bruce Mitchell a, Joana Barros b,...
Suffolk, 1984<br />2<br />
StarLogo TNG - code blocks<br />3<br />
The Isle of Man in TNG SpaceLand<br />4<br />
Objective<br />Is there a relationship between where a beetle cluster originates and the number of agent elms that die?<br...
Isle of Man - Relief<br /><ul><li>Scolytusbeetles can only thrive where elms prosper
Landscape determineselm habitats
On Man, there is an ‘elm-line’ of ca. 160 metres a.s.l..
Two ranges of hills exceed this elevation, restricting the flow of the disease across the island
In the model, a ‘beetle-line’ was set at an arbitrary 25 % higher (200m) than the elm-line.</li></ul>The combination of DE...
A single model run …<br />Sets up tree, beetle, forester, bird agents<br />‘Infects’ up to 1.5% of elms with beetles<br />...
Model agent flow chart<br />8<br />
The agents<br />9<br />
Model system flow chart<br />10<br />
SL-TNG Output<br />For each run:<br />cluster originates in random location;<br />number of elms surviving to GT1000 varie...
12<br />RCNS Calculation – step one<br />
13<br />RCNS Calculation – step two<br />
RCNS zones and regions<br />14<br />
Data processing flowchart<br />15<br />
Frequency of cell inclusion<br />16<br />
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Modelling dutch elm disease on the isle of man

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Identifying Dutch elm disease (DED) ‘danger-spots’ on the Isle of Man (IoM) with an agent-based model.

Bruce Mitchell, Joana Barros & Daniel Wendel

The paper presents a summary of an MSc GISc dissertation ( Mitchell ).

It proposes a 2.5D / 3D spatial analytical agent-based-model (ABM) approach to identifying DED ‘danger-spots’ – locations on the IoM where outbreaks of DED might lead to the greatest mortality among the Isle’s elm population.

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Modelling dutch elm disease on the isle of man

  1. 1. Identifying Dutch elm disease ‘danger-spots’ on the Isle of Manwith an agent-based model Bruce Mitchell a, Joana Barros b,Daniel Wendelc Email a: bruce.birkbeck@ntlworld.comb: j.barros@bbk.ac.ukc: djwendel@gmail.com<br />1<br />
  2. 2. Suffolk, 1984<br />2<br />
  3. 3. StarLogo TNG - code blocks<br />3<br />
  4. 4. The Isle of Man in TNG SpaceLand<br />4<br />
  5. 5. Objective<br />Is there a relationship between where a beetle cluster originates and the number of agent elms that die?<br />If so, might that relationship be used to map the island to reveal locations where an infestation might potentially be more or less damaging?<br />5<br />
  6. 6. Isle of Man - Relief<br /><ul><li>Scolytusbeetles can only thrive where elms prosper
  7. 7. Landscape determineselm habitats
  8. 8. On Man, there is an ‘elm-line’ of ca. 160 metres a.s.l..
  9. 9. Two ranges of hills exceed this elevation, restricting the flow of the disease across the island
  10. 10. In the model, a ‘beetle-line’ was set at an arbitrary 25 % higher (200m) than the elm-line.</li></ul>The combination of DEM, elm-line and beetle-line places elevation at the model’s centre. <br /><ul><li>Beetles operating out of any given disease epicentre will find some areas accessible, others out of range. </li></ul>6<br />
  11. 11. A single model run …<br />Sets up tree, beetle, forester, bird agents<br />‘Infects’ up to 1.5% of elms with beetles<br />Runs an elm census at game turn (GT) 0<br />Generates a single beetle cluster<br />Runs a beetle census at GT 60<br />Continues to GT 1,000<br />Exports results to .csv file<br />Resets to GT 0 and introduces next run<br />7<br />
  12. 12. Model agent flow chart<br />8<br />
  13. 13. The agents<br />9<br />
  14. 14. Model system flow chart<br />10<br />
  15. 15. SL-TNG Output<br />For each run:<br />cluster originates in random location;<br />number of elms surviving to GT1000 varies<br />.csv run results ported to MapInfo and SPSS for processing, then transferred to ArcGIS Spatial Analyst<br />11<br />
  16. 16. 12<br />RCNS Calculation – step one<br />
  17. 17. 13<br />RCNS Calculation – step two<br />
  18. 18. RCNS zones and regions<br />14<br />
  19. 19. Data processing flowchart<br />15<br />
  20. 20. Frequency of cell inclusion<br />16<br />
  21. 21. Cluster median centres and elm survival<br />17<br />
  22. 22. Modelled danger-spots<br />18<br />
  23. 23. Identifying Dutch elm disease ‘danger-spots’ on the Isle of Manwith an agent-based model Bruce MitchellData Visualisation CentreMethodology DirectorateOffice for National Statistics bruce.mitchell@ons.gov.ukJoana Barros Department of Geography, Environment and Development Studies, Birkbeck, University of London, Malet Street, London, WC1E 7HX j.barros@bbk.ac.ukDaniel WendelLead StarLogo TNG DeveloperScheller Teacher Education Program Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBoston, MA, USA djwendel@gmail.com <br />19<br />
  24. 24. 20<br />

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