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Develop Evolve Keynote

My Develop Evolve keynote presentation.

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Develop Evolve Keynote

  1. 1. How Digital Distribution Changes Everything.<br />Maybe.<br />By: David Edery, Fuzbi<br />Insert Session Title<br />Insert Speaker Name<br />
  2. 2. Digital distribution today<br />
  3. 3. Console Digital Downloads<br />NPD estimates: <br />18% of LIVE Gold users DL content regularly<br />10% of PSN users DL content regularly<br />… and that includes free content downloads<br />… and don’t forget many console owners never even go online to begin with<br />
  4. 4. Appdata.com, July 10.2009<br />
  5. 5. 132m registered users worldwide<br />11.8m unique monthly users<br />
  6. 6. F2P users are generating $1m per month<br />In China, FIFA Online attracted 1m users and generated $254k in just four days. <br />
  7. 7. GameStop says “no addressable market”<br /> for digital distribution until 2014<br /> (1up, 6.19.2009)<br />
  8. 8. What makes digital distribution so great?<br />
  9. 9. What’s easier: a moon launch or driving a car?<br />
  10. 10. AB Testing<br />
  11. 11. Perpetual Cross Promotion<br />
  12. 12. Targeting Niche Audiences on Web<br />
  13. 13. PDLC sustains unique users (MSFT)<br />Unique User Trend for TITLES WITH PDLC<br />
  14. 14. PDLC Helps Sustain Higher Retail Prices (MSFT)<br />$60<br />$59<br />$56<br />$54<br />$49<br />$40<br />$39<br />$34<br />$28<br /><ul><li> Metacritic rating > 7.0
  15. 15. At least 15 months of sales history
  16. 16. Average retail prices only from North America
  17. 17. Genres: Racing, RPG, Shooters (IGN)</li></li></ul><li>What’s the downside? (Or: swapping middlemen)<br />
  18. 18. Gatekeepers and their Agendas<br />Early PSN: must “look next-gen”<br />Early XBLA: bite-sized, especially casual/retro<br />Early Wiiware: make novel use of the Wiimote<br />iPhone: free and 99-cent content?<br />
  19. 19. Platforms and their King-making<br />Twitterers on the “suggested user” list can gain 500k+ followers <br />Same with iTunes, Amazon, and game portals<br />Bottom line: befriend the platform-holders!<br />
  20. 20. But the sad fact is, ecosystems without gatekeepers are just as unattractive, for different reasons.<br />
  21. 21. “Barriers exist. The market should reward insiders (like you) but make it really difficult for copycats to come in and steal share and lower prices …I think 90% of all markets don&apos;t meet these standards, and given the choice, I&apos;d avoid them.”<br /> -- Seth Godin<br />
  22. 22. Well, what about the “Long Tail?”<br />
  23. 23. Hits are still what drives the business<br />Image taken: July 11.2009<br />
  24. 24. Even at Amazon?<br /> In 2006, Amazon.com derived 75% of its book sales from just 2.7% of its titles. <br />
  25. 25. Anita Elberse, HBS (“Should You Invest in the Long Tail”)<br />Success is now more concentrated in top titles<br />Example: Worms XBLA<br />Indies are losing share to major labels <br />
  26. 26. Quality is king?...<br />
  27. 27. Question: so this Long Tail thing isn’t indie paradise. But it’s still better than the old retail world, right?Answer: well, it could be…<br />
  28. 28. Consoles missing Long Tail enablers<br />Amazon-like recommendation engines<br />User ratings (in some cases)<br />Ease of search (in some cases)<br />More dynamic pricing functionality <br />Selective discounts<br />Bundling<br />
  29. 29. Long Tail and Real-Time Multiplayer:<br /># of Players in Ecosystem <br />divided by <br /> # of “active” multiplayer games <br />often equals<br />screwed developers and customers<br />
  30. 30. Top iPhone Games: 6.16.2009<br />*Traditionally multiplayer games<br />
  31. 31. Multiplayer Solutions: Viral Invites / Guest Passes<br />
  32. 32. Multiplayer Solutions: Better Matchmaking<br />
  33. 33. Multiplayer Solutions: Scheduled Game Time<br />
  34. 34. Multiplayer Solutions: Asynchronous Multiplayer<br />
  35. 35. Things I’m currently interested in, for whatever it’s worth:<br />
  36. 36.
  37. 37.
  38. 38. Microtransaction-based Games<br />“A very large percentage of loyal customers—often more than 50%—are not profitable for most companies, because their loyalty is driven largely by expectations of great deals. …Profitable customers tend to make up only around 20% of a company’s customers.”<br />-- Wall Street Journal & MIT Sloan Management Review<br />Sound familiar? <br />F2P turns a weakness into a strength!<br />
  39. 39. Future of Digital?<br />
  40. 40.
  41. 41.
  42. 42.
  43. 43. Thank You!PS. If you liked this, check out my blog:http://www.edery.org<br />

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