2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

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This slideshow offers a highly practical approach yet as an integral part of a fundamentally new explanation of our world. The theory at the heart of this explanation gives access to a level of meta-awareness that makes new sense of the manifold of organizational and leadership problems that you manage. The predictive power of the underlying theory helps you always stay one step ahead.

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2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

  1. 1. A NEW<br />Leadership Ethos<br />The Ability to Predict<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  2. 2. Is society running into a wall<br />or at the brink of a major transformation?<br />The average age of a Fortune-500 company is 15 years<br />About half of the world’s mergers and acquisitions fail<br />Leaders stay on at the demise of their organization and nation<br />In our world of cycles, we try building organizations that “last”<br />We repeatedly buy millions of books from guru’s that get it wrong<br />We really believe that our social world differs from our physical world<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  3. 3. A New Leadership Ethos<br />The next wave in how society optimizes <br />its ability to minimize inequalities...<br /><ul><li> Human inequalities
  4. 4. Market inequalities
  5. 5. Temperature inequalities
  6. 6. Energy inequalities
  7. 7. Any inequalities</li></ul>© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  8. 8. Be Your Own Anchor Of Explanation<br />Most of us see <br />ourselves at the center <br />of our world map…<br />So, before strategizing about our world, let’s explore our self first <br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  9. 9. Leader in his/her Environment<br />Watch these 4 situations<br /><ul><li> Identifies a new concept
  10. 10. Driven by conviction
  11. 11. Knocks on many doors for funding
  12. 12. Persistently amends the concept
  13. 13. Until securing funds and acceptance</li></ul> A<br />Finding Platform<br />for Growth<br />Idea<br />Level <br />Playing Field<br />...virtual wall<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  14. 14. Leader in his/her Environment<br />Watch these 4 situations<br />Rising Growth<br /><ul><li> Turns concept into product
  15. 15. Driven by vision and passion
  16. 16. Builds a basic organization
  17. 17. Cozies up to clients, identifies niches
  18. 18. Proves the business by growth</li></ul> B<br />Finding Platform<br />for Growth<br />Resonating <br />with Environment<br />Idea<br />Nurture Niches<br />...virtual wall<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  19. 19. Leader in his/her Environment<br />Watch these 4 situations<br />Rising Growth<br /><ul><li> Repeats early proven success
  20. 20. Driven by cost, volume, and quality
  21. 21. Fosters process, flows, and culture
  22. 22. Fans out responsibilities to specialists
  23. 23. Realizes substantial stable growth</li></ul>Finding Platform<br />for Growth<br />Resonating <br />with Environment<br />Idea<br />Nurture Niches<br />Stable Growth<br />Process<br />Repeating<br />Proven Success<br /> C<br />...virtual wall<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  24. 24. Leader in his/her Environment<br />Watch these 4 situations<br />Rising Growth<br /><ul><li> Confronts complacency
  25. 25. Distances from established procedures
  26. 26. Simplifies and purifies organization
  27. 27. Brings in outside standards of success
  28. 28. Achieves profitability but not growth</li></ul>Finding Platform<br />for Growth<br />Resonating <br />with Environment<br />Idea<br />Nurture Niches<br />Stable Growth<br />Process<br />Distancing<br />Repeating<br />Proven Success<br />Creating<br />Level Playing Field<br /> D<br />Declining Growth<br />...virtual wall<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  29. 29. Leader in his/her Environment<br />Watch these 4 situations<br />Rising Growth<br /><ul><li> Introduces a new thinking
  30. 30. Driven by conviction
  31. 31. Aims to re-invent organization/society
  32. 32. May have to make several attempts
  33. 33. Identifies a new platform for growth</li></ul> A<br />Finding Platform<br />for Growth<br />Resonating <br />with Environment<br />Idea<br />Nurture Niches<br />Stable Growth<br />Uncertain Growth<br />Process<br />Distancing<br />Repeating<br />Proven Success<br />Creating<br />Level Playing Field<br />Declining Growth<br />...virtual wall<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  34. 34. Leader in his/her Environment<br />Rising Growth<br /> A<br /> B<br />Finding Platform<br />for Growth<br />Resonating <br />with Environment<br />In which state <br />do you feel most at ease?<br />Idea<br />Nurture Niches<br />Stable Growth<br />Uncertain Growth<br />Process<br />Distancing<br />Repeating<br />Proven Success<br />Creating<br />Level Playing Field<br /> D<br /> C<br />Declining Growth<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  35. 35. LET’s make up the balance<br />Organizational State<br />Leadership Archetype<br />B<br />A<br />Builder<br />Searches for niches<br />Concerned with external inequalities<br />Leads by vision and passion<br />Builds individual and collective loyalty<br />Transformer<br />Searches for meaning<br />Concerned with internal potential<br />Brings innovators together<br />Searches for platform for growth<br />Rising growth<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Grower<br />Reproduces, repeats success<br />Concerned with internal inequalities<br />Introduces specialists and processes<br />Leads by culture, sets boundaries<br />Confronter<br />Seeks turnaround<br />Confronts established thinking<br />Unlocks and opens organization<br />Shakes up and purifies<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />Declining growth<br />D<br />C<br />Leaders caught in web of neural networks…<br />Change possible…<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  36. 36. Deepening the understanding <br />of Peers and Organization<br />Let us introduce ourselves<br />B<br />A<br />Builder<br />Searches for niches<br />Concerned with external inequalities<br />Leads by vision and passion<br />Builds individual and collective loyalty<br />Transformer<br />Searches for meaning<br />Concerned with internal potential<br />Brings innovators together<br />Searches for platform for growth<br />Grower<br />Reproduces, repeats success<br />Concerned with internal inequalities<br />Leads by culture, sets boundaries<br />Introduces specialists and processes<br />Confronter<br />Seeks turnaround<br />Confronts established thinking<br />Unlocks and opens organization<br />Shakes up and purifies<br />D<br />C<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  37. 37. findings<br />Relating to your world is so much more meaningful<br /><ul><li>You know who you are
  38. 38. You know how you relate to your organization
  39. 39. You know how to relate to your peers (and so do your peers)
  40. 40. You know how future success can be achieved
  41. 41. You know when (and when not) to contribute or dominate
  42. 42. You know how to identify your ideal role model</li></ul>© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  43. 43. EXAMPLES<br />In the following examples, <br />an evolving organization or society often forces leaders to function in a role that may not be their natural one.<br />This leaves a largely unused opportunity to identify leaders whose natural role fits the needs of an evolving organization or society.<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  44. 44. HISTORICAL EXAMPLES<br />Muhammad<br />ISLAM about 600 CE<br />Paul<br />CHRISTIANITY about 0 CE<br />BUDDHISM about 600 BCE<br />Builder<br />Rising growth<br />Jesus of Nazareth<br />Gautama Buddha<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />Transformer<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />Abû Bakr<br />Grower<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />John the Baptist<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  45. 45. CORPORATE EXAMPLES<br />MARKS & SPENCER <br />Stuart Rose<br />GENERAL ELECTRIC <br />GE has<br />made a<br />break with<br />its promote-<br />from-within<br />tradition -<br />† DIGITAL EQUIPMENT <br />Ken Olsen – Gordon Bell<br />APPLE COMPUTERS <br />Steve Jobs<br />† ABN AMRO BANK <br />the changes<br />are tough on the many<br />who aren’t<br />‘dreamer<br />types’ <br />Builder<br />Rising growth<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />Luc VandeVelde<br />Transformer<br />Gil Amelio<br />Business Week<br />May 28, 2005 <br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />John Sculley<br />Jack Welch<br />Grower<br />Ken Olsen<br />Jan Kalff<br />GE loses <br />AAA-rating <br />and $264 billion in value - did <br />not groom super-<br />managers <br />after all<br />GE wants to sell Appliance <br />Division <br />GE sells Chemical <br />Division <br />to SABIC<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />May, 2007<br />May, 2008<br />Rijkman Groenink<br />2003<br />2007<br />Michael Spindler<br />Reuters<br />March, 2009<br />Bob Palmer<br />Jeffrey Immelt<br />2005<br />2007<br />2008<br />2003<br />2009<br />Breakpoint<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  46. 46. US PRESIDENTIAL EXAMPLES<br />George H W Bush<br />Lyndon B Johnson<br />Andrew Johnson<br />1933 – <br />George Washington<br />1789 – 1817<br />Builder<br />2009 Presidential Candidate<br />Rising growth<br />Abraham Lincoln<br />James Madison<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />Ronald Reagan<br />John Kennedy<br />Transformer<br />Franklin Roosevelt – Harry Truman<br />Richard Nixon – Gerald Ford<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />John Adams<br />Bill Clinton<br />Grower<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />Thomas Jefferson<br />1857 – 1869<br />James Buchanan<br />Dwight Eisenhower<br />Jimmy Carter<br />George W Bush<br />Breakpoint<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  47. 47. US PRESIDENTIAL EXAMPLES<br />George H W Bush<br />Lyndon B Johnson<br />Andrew Johnson<br />1933 – <br />George Washington<br />1789 – 1817<br />Builder<br />Rising growth<br />Abraham Lincoln<br />James Madison<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />Ronald Reagan<br />Barack Obama<br />John Kennedy<br />Transformer<br />Franklin Roosevelt – Harry Truman<br />Richard Nixon – Gerald Ford<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />John Adams<br />Bill Clinton<br />Grower<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />Thomas Jefferson<br />1857 – 1869<br />James Buchanan<br />Dwight Eisenhower<br />Jimmy Carter<br />George W Bush<br />Breakpoint<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  48. 48. SOUTH-AFRICAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES<br />Nelson Mandela<br />South Africa – Rainbow Republic<br />South Africa – Pre-Rainbow Republic<br />Builder<br />Rising growth<br />Future Transformer<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />F W de Klerk<br />Transformer<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />Thabo Mbeki<br />Grower<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />Jacob Zuma<br />Breakpoint<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  49. 49. RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES<br />Boris Yeltsin<br />Russian Federation<br />Soviet Union <br />Builder<br />Rising growth<br />Future Transformer<br />Mikhail Gorbachev<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />Transformer<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />Vladimir Putin<br />Grower<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />Dmitry Medvedev<br />Breakpoint<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  50. 50. Uk leadership EXAMPLES<br />John Major<br />United Kingdom <br />Builder<br />Rising growth<br />Future Transformer<br />Margaret Thatcher<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />Transformer<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />Tony Blair<br />Grower<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />Gordon Brown<br />Breakpoint<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  51. 51. Builder<br />Transformer<br />Grower<br />Confronter<br />Zimbabwean leadership EXAMPLES<br />Rhodesia – Zimbabwe <br />Rising growth<br />Future Transformer<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />Ian Smith<br />Declining growth<br />Robert Mugabe<br />Breakpoint<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  52. 52. North-Korean leadership EXAMPLES<br />Developed the principles of communism into a Stalin-like state ideology which he referred to as Juche<br />Kim iI - Sung<br />Builder<br />Japanese Occupation <br /> Korean War<br />Rising growth<br />Future Transformer<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />Transformer<br />Expanded and fine-tuned government apparatus and helped it develop pre-programmed responses (however unpredictable) to signals from within and without society<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />Kim Jong-il<br />Grower<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />Breakpoint<br />Kim Jong-un?<br />Will try to purify society by confronting complacency and ill-fated behavioral responses, yet sows the seeds for the internal breakup of society – May 29 2009<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  53. 53. findings<br />Remarkable consistencies across different organizations<br /><ul><li>Inspiring leaders to limit their term
  54. 54. Fundamental (rather than symbolic) consistencies
  55. 55. Evidence of something more universal</li></ul>© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  56. 56. Something more universal?<br />Why have I been able to compare totally different organizations?<br />What is the common denominator, what are the parallels?<br />Do these parallels also apply to leaderless “physical” organizations?<br />If so, what is the role of leaders?<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  57. 57. Something more universal?<br />What does “organization” mean?<br />According to any unabridged dictionary, to organize means:<br />“To form into a whole - consisting of independent parts - <br />especially for harmonious action”<br />However, as the following examples show:<br />Organization does not determine harmonious action but<br />harmonious action determines organization!<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  58. 58. Parallels of organization<br />Flame<br />H2O as by-product unaccounted for<br />A certain temperature inequality sets off<br />a fleeting stream of oxidation order.<br />Erwin Schrödinger<br />CO2<br />CO2<br />CO2<br />CO2<br />CH4<br />O2<br />O2<br />CH4<br />O2<br />O2<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  59. 59. Parallels of organization<br />Flame<br />H2O as by-product unaccounted for<br />At a certain temperatureinequality, <br />simultaneous and congruent oxidation behavior<br /> of hot gas moleculesemerges spontaneously inside the behavioral space vacated or created by others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue in the shape of a flame.<br />CO2<br />CO2<br />CO2<br />CO2<br />In one universal paragraph...<br />CH4<br />O2<br />O2<br />CH4<br />O2<br />O2<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  60. 60. Parallels of organization<br />A certain temperature inequality shapes<br />the structure of a snowflake.<br />Kenneth Libbrecht<br />Snowflake<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  61. 61. Parallels of organization<br />At a certain temperatureinequality, <br />simultaneous and congruent vibration behavior<br />of frozen water moleculesemerges spontaneously inside the behavioral space vacated or created by others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue in the shape of a snowflake.<br />Snowflake<br />In one universal paragraph...<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  62. 62. Parallels of organization<br />Bénard Cell<br />A certain temperature inequality makes molecules follow orderly paths.<br />Henri Bénard, Ilya Prigogine<br />Snowflake<br />View of surface from above<br />Petri dish<br />Heat<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  63. 63. Parallels of organization<br />Bénard Cell<br />At a certain temperatureinequality, <br />simultaneous and congruent heat-transport behavior<br />of liquid moleculesemerges spontaneously inside the behavioral space vacated or created by others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible <br />residue in the shape of a convection cell.<br />Snowflake<br />View of surface from above<br />In one universal paragraph...<br />Petri dish<br />Heat<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  64. 64. Parallels of organization<br />Bénard Cell<br />At a certain day-time inequality, <br />simultaneous and congruent flapping behavior<br />of migrating birdsemerges spontaneously inside the behavioral space vacated or created by others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible <br />residue in the shape of a flock of birds.<br />Snowflake<br />Bird Flock<br />In one universal paragraph...<br />Blowin’ in the wind. The Economist (Nov 29 2008) - Strangely enough, leaders of a flock (or of a chase) also benefit through inverted slipstreaming<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  65. 65. Parallels of organization<br />Bénard Cell<br />Organization<br />At a certain supply/demandinequality, <br />simultaneous and congruent role-inspiredbehavior<br />of employees emerges spontaneously inside the behavioral space vacated or created by others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue in the shape of a business organization.<br />Snowflake<br />Bird Flock<br />In one universal paragraph...<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  66. 66. Parallels of organization<br />Wrap-up<br />Environment <br />Trigger<br />Behavior-Pattern Species<br />Environment-Sustained Organization<br />Flame<br />Temperature<br />Inequality<br />Oxidizing<br />Molecule<br />Congruently Igniting<br />Gas Molecules<br />Snowflake Structure<br />Temperature<br />Inequality<br />Settling<br />Spot<br />Congruently Vibrating<br />Frozen Water Molecules<br />Visible Residue<br />Bénard Cell Pattern<br />Temperature<br />Inequality<br />Surface<br />Perturbations<br />Congruently Moving<br />Liquid Molecules<br />Flock of Birds<br />Day-light<br />Inequality<br />Leading<br />Bird<br />Congruently Flapping<br />Birds<br />Business Organization<br />Supply, Demand<br />Inequality<br />Entrepreneurial<br />Leadership<br />Congruently Working<br />People in Multiple Roles<br />Inequality-Inspired<br />Behavior-Pattern Reproduction <br />Undertermined<br />Environment<br />Amplification /<br />Transmission<br />Emergence / Selection<br />of Behavior Pattern<br />Inequality<br />4-State Universality of Behavior-Pattern SpeciesEmergence<br />Each stage is supported by a mathematical process-description in the domain of chaos theory.<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  67. 67. Parallels of organization<br />Nature spontaneously fosters forms of organizationto minimize inequalitiesin the fastest way possible!<br />Inequality<br />The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics<br />Rudolf Clausius, Ludwig Boltzmann, Erwin Schrödinger, Rod Swenson<br />Time<br />Gradient = Rate of Inequality Minimization<br />Time WithOrganization<br />Time Without Organization<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  68. 68. Parallels of organization<br />The environment – a complex of inequalities – determines the emergence of forms of organization!<br />“The process of evolution was reversed by returning fruit-flies to their ancestral environment from which they had diverged.”<br />Simon Conway Morris, “Life’s Solution”, Cambridge University Press (2003)<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  69. 69. Parallels of organization<br />Human Organization?<br />Stage of Development<br />Behavior-Pattern Emergence<br />Leadership Archetype<br />State<br />D<br />Confronter<br />Creating a Level Playing Field<br />Undertermined Environment<br />A<br />Transformer<br />Finding a New Platform for Growth<br />Amplification / Transmission<br />B<br />Builder<br />Resonating with the Environment<br />Emergence / Selection of Behavior Pattern<br />C<br />Grower<br />Repeating Success Ever More Efficiently<br />Inequality-Inspired Behavior-Pattern Reproduction <br />D<br />Confronter<br />Creating a Level Playing Field<br />Undertermined Environment<br />Shared by all forms of organization<br />Specific to human organization<br />If organizations emerge by themselves, then what is the role of a leader?<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  70. 70. Parallels of organization<br />Explaining Organization first<br />Behavior Patterns<br />Visible Outcomes<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  71. 71. Parallels of organization<br />Iceberg metaphor<br />Existential Manifold<br />Visible Outcomes<br />Behavior Patterns<br />Hidden World<br />ExistentialManifoldZine=Emzine<br />The magazine in which<br />outcomes arewritten<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  72. 72. Emzine phenomenon<br />All forms of organization emerge from the behavioral domain<br />Snowflake<br />Convection cell<br />Flock of Birds<br />Human Organization<br />Local Environment<br />Organization<br />Survival of the least-energy-fitting<br />Natural Selection <br />of Behavior-Pattern Species<br />2<br />Behavior-Pattern Species<br />Minimizing inequalitythrough<br />Division of Labor <br />into Roles<br />1<br />Inequality<br />Temperature <br />Daylight duration<br />Supply-Demand<br />Energy <br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  73. 73. Emzine phenomenon<br />All forms of organization emerge from the behavioral domain<br />Local Scale<br />Scale<br />Organization<br />2<br />Local<br />Behavior-Pattern Species<br />Local<br />1<br />Local<br />Inequality<br />Global Scale<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  74. 74. Physics of organization<br />Inequalities≡ Entropy<br />Maintained by most physicists<br />World withers away<br />Organization<br />Visible Outcomes over Time<br />Emzine Phenomenon<br />World of unimaginable order<br />Now: 4000 Minerals <br />Behavior-Pattern Species<br />1<br />Early Universe: No Minerals<br />Roles≡ Complexity<br />Division of <br />Labor into Roles<br />Evolution of Rocks or Minerals<br />Atoms dynamically arranged in lattices creating unique crystalline structures - not unlike snowflakes or human organizations<br />Inequality<br />Roles<br />2nd Law of Thermodynamics<br />Minimizing inequalities<br />Inequalities<br />1st Law of Thermodynamics<br />Sum of all inequalities remains unchanged<br />Source: David Corriveau. Dr Robert Hazen rocks Norwich’s geology community. Norwich University (December 2008)<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  75. 75. Physics of organization<br />Behavioral Conditions<br />Human Conduct<br />A new principle of morality?<br />A new utilityprinciple?<br />2nd Law of thermodynamics<br /><ul><li> Simultaneous behavior
  76. 76. Sharing inequality-minimizing urge
  77. 77. Behavioral space creation and utilization </li></ul>Economics<br />Least-Energy Fitting<br />Physics<br />Organization<br />2<br />Natural Selection of <br />Behavior-Pattern Species<br />Behavior-Pattern Species<br />Inequality<br />= Congruent Simultaneity<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  78. 78. A new window onto our world<br />The world of behavior-pattern species that reconciles it<br />Organization<br />2<br />The world of localized energy- inequalities that triggers it<br />Behavior-Pattern Species<br />1<br />Inequality<br />The world, that we observe, too diverse to make sense of<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  79. 79. reconciling our world<br />PREDICTABLE STAGES<br />A world of behavior-patterns<br />species that reconciles it<br />Universal<br />Laws of thermodynamics<br />The world of localized energy inequalities that triggers it<br />Context-specific<br />The world, that we observe, too diverse to make sense of<br />EXPLANATIONS<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  80. 80. Physics of organization<br />Re-explaining Evolution<br />Niches, Species<br />Visible Outcomes<br />Existential Manifold = <br />forms of organization observed<br />Consequence<br />Emzine= Zinewhere <br />forms of organization are written<br />Cause<br />Behavioral Domain<br />Alfred Russel Wallace and Charles Darwin: What makes the branching tree of species grow?<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  81. 81. Emzine phenomenon<br />What is reality, really? Could it be what we touch or observe?<br />Niches, Species<br />Visible Outcomes<br />We touch a sub-atomic abyss<br /> An atom is at least 15-times smaller than a molecule<br /> An atom is at least 100,000 times bigger than its nucleus<br />Reality in truth<br /> = an ecosystem of behavior-pattern species<br />Gautama Buddha<br />Only together they arise - pattica sumuppãda<br />Behavioral Domain<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  82. 82. Emzine phenomenon<br />Depicting the cyclical nature of emergence<br />Visible Outcomes<br />Consequence<br />1<br />2<br />3<br />4<br />1<br />2<br />3<br />4<br />Cause<br />Behavioral Domain<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  83. 83. Improving human organization<br />Identify where you are to learn where you go<br />Visible Outcomes<br />Group<br />Cohesion<br />Source of<br />Momentum<br />Group<br />Perspective<br />Elasticity of<br />Social Forces<br />Inelastic<br />Inward/<br />Closed<br />Outward/<br />Open<br />Autonomy<br />Integration<br />Vision<br />Individual<br />Organization<br />Outward/<br />Open<br />Inward/<br />Closed<br />Culture<br />Inelastic<br />Fragmentation<br />Interdependence<br />Yin-Yang Features<br />Behavioral Domain<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  84. 84. Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />Improving human organization<br />Identify where you are to learn where you go<br />Visible Outcomes<br />Inclination<br />Growth Rate<br />Rising<br />Uncertain<br />Stable<br />Declining<br />Universal Features<br />Behavioral Domain<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  85. 85. Improving human organization<br />Identify where you are to learn where you go<br />Transformer<br />Builder<br />Grower<br />Confronter<br />Leadership Archetype<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  86. 86. Improving human organization<br />Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs<br />Steve Jobs<br />APPLE <br />Builder<br />Rising growth<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />Why Apple is Building a Massive $1 Billion Data Center…<br />From Features to Forecast<br />Transformer<br />Gil Amelio<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />Paving the way<br />for Job’s successor…<br />Grower<br />My money's on turning iTunes into an iMedia store, and developing iWork and iLife into the Cloud.<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />Michael Spindler<br />Breakpoint<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  87. 87. Improving human organization<br />Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs<br />Early 2009<br />Capable of re-inventing GM?http://anewleadershipethos.blogspot.com/<br /><ul><li> Protégé of Confronter, Rick Wagoner
  88. 88. Once Accountant with PWC
  89. 89. Once GM’s CFO</li></ul>GENERAL MOTORS <br />R. Stempel - J. Smale<br />Builder<br />Rising growth<br />Roger B. Smith<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />From Features to Forecast<br />Transformer<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />John F. Smith<br />Grower<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />Fritz Henderson - CEO<br />A true Transformer?<br />Rick Wagoner<br />Breakpoint<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  90. 90. Improving human organization<br />Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs<br />GENERAL MOTORS <br />R. Stempel - J. Smale<br />Builder<br />Rising growth<br />Roger B. Smith<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />From Features to Forecast<br />Transformer<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />John F. Smith<br />Grower<br />Edward Whitacre<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />Rick Wagoner<br />Breakpoint<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  91. 91. Improving human organization<br />Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs<br />Fujio Chō<br />TOYOTA<br />Builder<br />Rising growth<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />From Features to Forecast<br />Transformer<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />Katsuaki Watanabe<br />Grower<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />Akio Toyoda<br />Return of the Yoda<br />http://anewleadershipethos.blogspot.com/<br />Breakpoint<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  92. 92. Improving human organization<br />Predicting share-price evolutions<br />Rising<br />Declining<br />Rising<br />1981<br />2001<br />1972<br />Jack Welch,GROWER<br />R. H. Jones,BUILDER<br />Jeffrey Immelt,CONFRONTER<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  93. 93. Improving human organization<br />Predicting share-price evolutions<br />Rising<br />Rising<br />Declining<br />Undetermined<br />2003<br />1981<br />1996<br />1990<br />Robert Stempel- John G. Smale,BUILDER<br />John F. Smith,GROWER<br />Rick Wagoner,CONFRONTER<br />Roger B. Smith,TRANSFORMER<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  94. 94. Improving human organization<br />Predicting share-price evolutions<br />Rising<br />Declining<br />Rising<br />Undetermined<br />1985<br />1996<br />1993<br />1977<br />Steve Jobs,BUILDER<br />Gil Amelio,TRANSFORMER<br />Michael Spindler,CONFRONTER<br />John Sculley,GROWER<br />Steve Jobs,BUILDER<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  95. 95. Improving human organization<br />Predicting share-price evolutions<br />Dimension of Outcomes<br />Consequence<br />1<br />2<br />3<br />4<br />Cause<br />1<br />2<br />3<br />4<br />Behavioral Domain<br />4-State Universality of Behavior-Pattern Species Emergence<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  96. 96. Improving human organization<br />Predicting share-price evolutions<br />SHARE-PRICE EVOLUTION<br /> REVENUE GROWTH RATE<br />LEADERSHIP ARCHETYPE<br />State<br />Uncertain Growth<br />Transformer<br />A<br />Undetermined<br />B<br />Rising<br />Rising Growth<br />Builder<br />Rising <br />Grower<br />C<br />Stable Growth<br />Declining<br />Confronter<br />D<br />Declining Growth<br />Improve share-price evolution by appointing the right leader<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  97. 97. What distinguishes human organization?<br />From physical organizations - such as snowflakes<br /><ul><li> Awareness of their own functioning and emergence
  98. 98. The capacity to improve on their own emergence</li></ul>They are self-referential or able to learn from self<br />Nature is out to improve the efficiency of forms of organization – organizations spontaneously emerge to minimize the inequalities in an era or environment<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  99. 99. 2<br />3<br />2<br />3<br />2<br />3<br />1<br />4<br />1<br />4<br />1<br />4<br />A new leadership ethos<br /><ul><li> Leadership is not about action but about awareness
  100. 100. Leadership is not about managing time but about simultime
  101. 101. Leadership is not eternal but temporal
  102. 102. Leadership is not about leaders but about organization - Ubuntu</li></ul>2<br />3<br />1<br />4<br />Nature is out to improve the efficiency of forms of organization – organizations spontaneously emerge to minimize the inequalities in an era or environment<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  103. 103. Improving human organization<br />Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness <br />External / Internal Conditions<br />The traditional playing field of leaders<br />Double<br />Loop<br />Loop 2<br />Goals<br />Single<br />Loop<br />Loop 1<br />Roles / Action<br />Awareness<br />Nation / Company / Business Unit / Team<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  104. 104. Improving human organization<br />Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness <br />Awareness<br />Stove Pipes of Awareness<br />External / Internal Conditions<br />External / Internal Conditions<br />Loop 2<br />Loop 2<br />Goals<br />Goals<br />Y<br />X<br />Loop 1<br />Loop 1<br />Maybe separated spatially but mostly separated by time… <br />Roles / Action<br />Roles / Action<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  105. 105. Improving human organization<br />Builder<br />maintaining<br />Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness <br />Rising growth<br />/<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />Transformer<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />Grower<br />Global Gauge<br />Symmetry<br />Meta-Awareness<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />External / Internal Conditions<br />External / Internal Conditions<br />Loop 2<br />Loop 2<br />Goals<br />Goals<br />Awareness<br />Loop 1<br />Loop 1<br />Local<br />Symmetry<br />Roles / Action<br />Roles / Action<br />X<br />Y<br />Maybe separated spatially but mostly separated by time… <br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  106. 106. IMPROVING human Organization<br />Builder<br />Creating meta-awareness: One clock, two times<br />Rising growth<br />Discover/<br />Innovate<br />Nurture/<br />Niches<br />Transformer<br />SimulTime<br />Remember…<br />Congruent Simultaneity<br />Stable growth<br />Uncertain growth<br />Confront/<br />Purify<br />Specialize/<br />Optimize<br />Grower<br />Declining growth<br />Confronter<br />Global Gauge<br />Symmetry<br />Time Interval<br />External / Internal Conditions<br />Loop 2<br />Goals<br />Loop 1<br />Roles / Action<br />Local<br />Symmetry<br />ORGANIZATION<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  107. 107. Improving human Organization<br />Creating meta-awareness: Since 4500 years in Pyramid texts<br />SimulTime<br />Behavioral Domain<br />Time Great<br /><ul><li> A time of reality, of unity, of pre-existence and post-existence
  108. 108. A time which is not linear but of cycles, endless in the cosmic life
  109. 109. A time used in the divine world</li></ul>Global Gauge<br />Symmetry<br />Time Interval<br />Time Small<br /><ul><li> A time that goes by
  110. 110. A time that is like a dream that passes
  111. 111. A time that governs on earth </li></ul>Local<br />Symmetry<br />Dimension of Outcomes<br />Egyptologist Prof Jan Assmann:Moses The Egyptian. Harvard University Press, 1998andLa notion d’éternitédansl’Egypteancienne<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  112. 112. Improving human organization<br />Creating meta-awareness: In the footsteps of early explorers<br />One clock, two times<br />One world, two views<br />Simultime<br />Interval<br />Sea-faring explorers shortened their journey to trade destinations <br />by cutting corners through Earth’s newfound 3rd dimension of space<br />Soon, we will shorten our journey to novel forms of organization<br />by cutting corners through the newfound 2nd dimension of time<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  113. 113. Improving human organization<br />Creating meta-awareness: The third loop<br />Triple<br />Loop<br />Double<br />Loop<br />Single<br />Loop<br />Meta-Awareness<br />Awareness<br />Nations / Companies / Business Units / Teams<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  114. 114. Applied technology<br />A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop<br />EXPERT SYSTEM<br />Emzine Profile<br />Identification<br />Expert Questionnaire<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  115. 115. Applied technology<br />A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop<br />Three-step build-up of organizational meta-awareness<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  116. 116. Applied technology<br />A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop<br />Am I the right leader for my organization?<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  117. 117. Identification<br />Questionnaire<br />EMZINE PROFILE<br />Emzine Profile<br />
  118. 118. EMZINE PROFILE<br />
  119. 119. Applied technology<br />A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop<br />Analyze fit<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  120. 120. HOW SOCIETY WILL DEAL WITH INEQUALITIES<br />Leadership Trend Breakthroughs<br />Awareness<br />Timeless Leadership<br />Built to Last<br />Due Diligence<br />Creation, Causality<br />Equality, Dependence<br />Time Interval<br />Sein, Being<br />Meta-awareness<br />Temporal Leadership<br />Grown to Achieve<br />Future Diligence<br />Self-creation, Conditioning<br />Inequality, Interdependence<br />Simultime<br />Dasein, Becoming<br />TO<br />FROM <br />Emzine<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  121. 121. 5-Minute VIDEO SUMMARY<br />CLICK HERE TO RUN<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  122. 122. www.emzine.org<br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />
  123. 123. QUESTIONS<br />Learning Points for Leaders<br />Learning Points for Management Consultants and M&A Experts<br />Learning Points for Leadership Coaches<br />Learning Points for HR/Executive Search Consultants<br />Learning Points for Stock Analysts<br />Learning Points for Physicists, Economists and Philosophers <br />© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict<br />

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