20080521icitizendoc Searls 1211920988695171 9


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  • 20080521icitizendoc Searls 1211920988695171 9

    1. 1. What’s next on the open horizon <ul><li>Doc Searls </li></ul><ul><li>Linux Journal • UC Santa Barbara • Harvard University •Twitter • Blogs • Various window seats </li></ul>
    2. 2. I believe in Duncan Watts. But I also believe in tipping. <ul><li>And we’re going to tip something big before this is over. </li></ul><ul><li>So don’t leave. </li></ul>
    3. 3. What’s next is fulfilment of The Cluetrain Prophesy: <ul><li>We still don’t give customers the respect Cluetrain demanded more than 9 years ago. Because we can’t. That will change. </li></ul><ul><li>The Net is an open source project. Markets are too. Understanding the former will help us make the most of the latter. </li></ul><ul><li>Markets are relationships. Relating is the new frontier. And customers will take the lead. </li></ul><ul><li>The customer is the new platform. It’s time to take sides with ourselves, and our own intentions, and not just those of sellers. </li></ul><ul><li>The Intention Economy will grow around what we actually want. Not just guesswork about that. Demand will drive supply. Personally. </li></ul><ul><li>So what’s next are new tools for expressing intentions and managing relations. And having fun with both. </li></ul>
    4. 4. First, we have some unfinished Cluetrain business. <ul><li>- Chris Locke </li></ul>
    5. 5. How can customer reach exceed vendor grasp?
    6. 6. We can take our clues from free software and open source. <ul><li>They’ve been building a whole new world for us. </li></ul><ul><li>Their way. </li></ul>
    7. 7. Open source developers have practical motivations. <ul><li>They want to build stuff. </li></ul><ul><li>That can be used, and re-used. </li></ul><ul><li>By anybody. For anything. </li></ul>
    8. 8. Open source code is a product of human nature. <ul><li>Its wild and free environment is the Net. </li></ul><ul><li>Which it also helps build. </li></ul><ul><li>Making it even more wild and more free. </li></ul>
    9. 9. Open source and the Net share two ideals: <ul><li>1) Nobody owns it </li></ul><ul><li>2) Everybody can use it </li></ul><ul><li>Plus one more… </li></ul>
    10. 10. 3) Anybody can improve it
    11. 11. There are now more than half a million open source code bases. <ul><li>All of them grew on the Net. </li></ul><ul><li>Which also embodies the same NEA principles: </li></ul><ul><li>N obody owns it, E verybody can use it, A nybody can improve it. </li></ul>
    12. 12. The Live Web is branching off the Static Web. <ul><li>Think of the branching as one between space and time . </li></ul>Space (Static) Time (Live)
    13. 13. Relationships will grow on the live web. <ul><li>Here relationships between customers and vendors will be two-way. </li></ul><ul><li>Power will be much more symmetrical. </li></ul>
    14. 14. The Live Web is where we’ll drive The Intention Economy. <ul><li>The Intention Economy is what we get when we are no longer “seats”, “eyeballs”, end “users” or “consumers”. </li></ul><ul><li>You have customers who are ready to buy . </li></ul>
    15. 15. Intention in a markeplace is what you get when the customer’s mind is made up. <ul><li>It’s also virgin territory. </li></ul><ul><li>Mostly because we’ve spent too much time and energy on marketing, </li></ul><ul><li>And not enough on what happens in markets when buyers are ready. </li></ul>Attention Intention Decision
    16. 16. We can explore The Intention Economy with Searls law #14: <ul><li>It doesn’t matter what car you want to rent. </li></ul><ul><li>You’re going to get a Chevy Cavalier. </li></ul>
    17. 17. The car rental business makes an excellent study of intention-deprived markets. <ul><li>There they are, all lined up against the same wall… </li></ul>
    18. 18. …or worse, on the Web: <ul><li>Where they are all marketing silos. </li></ul><ul><li>And where United replicates the all-silo airport experience. </li></ul>
    19. 19. I like to rent from Budget, because I might get a Ford Focus <ul><li>They still say their compact is a Ford Focus, “or similar.” </li></ul><ul><li>But, like the rest of them, what they rent you mostly is… </li></ul>
    20. 20. What good would it do the car rental business to know what any customer’s intentions are, outside the silos? <ul><li>They would spend less energy trying to trap and hold customers </li></ul><ul><li>And more trying to meet demand and improve service. </li></ul><ul><li>And enlarging the whole marketplace. </li></ul>
    21. 21. A few things companies will need to know about independent customers <ul><li>They have lots of relationships that might also be good for you. </li></ul><ul><li>Most of what they want isn’t in your CRM system. </li></ul><ul><li>They have more good ideas for you than anybody inside your company. </li></ul>
    22. 22. I should be able to express global (and logical) preferences outside of anyone’s silo. <ul><li>For example, </li></ul><ul><li>IF I am calling for tech support, </li></ul><ul><li>THEN I don’t want to hear a commercial message. </li></ul><ul><li>AND I am willing to pay X to reach a human in <60 seconds. </li></ul>
    23. 23. I should be able to manage my own health care data. <ul><li>Instead of risking my life when I fill out manual forms with names of diseases I don’t know how to spell. </li></ul>
    24. 24. I should be able to inquire and relate to whole markets, on the fly. <ul><li>For example, send a message from my moving car that I need a stroller for twins somewhere in the next 300 miles on I-40 eastbound… </li></ul><ul><li>— without going into a silo, or giving any more than the required information… </li></ul><ul><li>— which mainly consists of being trustworthy and having money to spend. </li></ul>
    25. 25. I should be able to manage my relationships with vendors. <ul><li>That means “agreements” need to go both ways. </li></ul><ul><li>No more 10,000 word piles of legalese from Verizon saying they can cut you off for no reason at all. </li></ul><ul><li>It means real relationships between truly consenting patries. </li></ul><ul><li>Whether those relationships are enduring or transitory. </li></ul>
    26. 26. We’re calling this VRM, for Vendor Relationship Management <ul><li>It tests the belief that markets can be truly free and open. </li></ul><ul><li>And in control by customers as well as vendors. </li></ul><ul><li>We’re building tools that equip customers to be both independent of vendors, and better able to engage with them. </li></ul><ul><li>We’re doing this at Harvard’s Berkman Center. </li></ul><ul><li>And in groups around the world. </li></ul>
    27. 27. Our first project is a new business model for free media. (that isn’t advertising) <ul><li>Free media include… </li></ul><ul><li>Public broadcasting </li></ul><ul><li>Blogs, podcasts </li></ul><ul><li>Music… </li></ul><ul><li>Anything that’s either free on purpose or too easy to “steal” </li></ul>
    28. 28. Our first tool is the relbutton : <ul><li>It says, </li></ul><ul><li>“ I want to pay… </li></ul><ul><li>what I want.” And/or, </li></ul><ul><li>“ I want to relate… </li></ul><ul><li>on my terms… </li></ul><ul><li>and not just yours.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ This is my code’s way </li></ul><ul><li>of letting your code know that. </li></ul><ul><li>Even if you’re not listening. Yet.” </li></ul>
    29. 29. The relbutton can represent three different states. <ul><li>Intention to relate (and to pay). </li></ul><ul><li>Intention to sell, but also to relate on your (the buyer’s) terms, as well as mine. </li></ul><ul><li>Existing relationship. </li></ul>
    30. 30. There’s no limit to data types stored on both sides. <ul><li>These can include intentions, transaction records, preferences, memberships, “social graphs”, shopping lists, existing agreements, whatever. </li></ul><ul><li>Selective disclosure is key. </li></ul>
    31. 31. Here’s where you’ll see it first. <ul><li>On a radio tuner for the iPhone and other mobile Internet devices. </li></ul>
    32. 32. That provides a new business model for media. <ul><li>Starting with noncommercial sources. </li></ul><ul><li>And growing to include everything. </li></ul><ul><li>Starting with the music business, probably. </li></ul>
    33. 33. Q&A <ul><li>Doc Searls </li></ul><ul><li>http://projectvrm.org </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul>