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UK Climate Projections


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Presentation to the UK Climate Projections event for the third sector at Defra's Innovation Centre, Reading on 28 July 2009.
Dr Alastair Brown
UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)

Published in: Technology, News & Politics
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UK Climate Projections

  1. 1. UK Climate Projections - UKCP09 Third Sector Projections in Practice Event, Reading, 28 July 2009 Dr Alastair Brown, UK Climate Impacts Programme
  2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>B ackground to the UK Climate Projections </li></ul><ul><li>UKCP09 products </li></ul><ul><li>Using UKCP09 products </li></ul><ul><li>UKCIP support </li></ul>
  3. 3. How do we plan for the future? <ul><li>The past as a guide to the future </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>assumes “stationarity” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>but, past events and their management may be informative </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Oracles, augury, cards, sorcery, …… </li></ul><ul><li>“ Predict – Optimise - Relax” or “Assess – Hedge - Review”? </li></ul><ul><li>Plan for one future or many? </li></ul>Impacts & Consequences what will happen? Climate change how will my system behave? Sensitivity/vulnerability
  4. 4. Background to UKCP09 <ul><li>UK climate scenarios produced since 1991 </li></ul><ul><li>UKCIP published climate scenarios in 1998 and 2002 </li></ul><ul><li>Nature and scope of information has evolved, building upon: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>improved scientific knowledge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>increased computing power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>stakeholder requirements </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Each has represented best scientific understanding at that time </li></ul><ul><li>Audience has evolved and grown </li></ul>CCIRG91 CCIRG96 UKCIP98 UKCIP02 UKCP09 next
  5. 5. User-led development <ul><li>Improved consideration and quantification of associated uncertainties – (resulting in probabilistic nature of the projections) </li></ul><ul><li>Improved spatial and temporal detail </li></ul><ul><li>Improved accessibility (we provided a dedicated online user interface) </li></ul><ul><li>More information about climate change in the marine environment </li></ul><ul><li>W hat next? </li></ul>
  6. 6. UKCIP and UKCP09 UKCIP - UK Climate Impacts Programme UKCP09 - 2009 Climate Projections UKCP09 launched on 18 June 2009
  7. 7. Production Partners <ul><li>Management by Defra, Hadley Centre, UKCIP </li></ul><ul><li>User Panel, Steering Group, Expert Review </li></ul><ul><li>Others delivered User Interface, Marine, Weather Generator, Guidance </li></ul>
  8. 8. UKCP09 Improvements <ul><li>Improved representation of the climate system </li></ul><ul><li>Quantification of modelling uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>Probabilistic output – robust decisions </li></ul><ul><li>More spatial and temporal detail </li></ul><ul><li>User interface </li></ul><ul><li>Training programme </li></ul><ul><li>Managed enquiry system </li></ul>
  9. 9. UKCP09 – Responding to Users 25 km grid Marine Administrative River Basin 30-year time periods Uncertainty Spatial resolution Temporal resolution
  10. 10. Clarifying Uncertainties <ul><li>The provision of probabilistic projections is one of the fundamental building blocks of UKCP09 </li></ul><ul><li>Probabilities provide a relative measure of the strength of evidence considered that supports a particular future climate outcome – supporting risk management and robust decision making </li></ul>Relative strength of the evidence supporting a specific change…. Relative strength of the evidence supporting the change being equal to or less than a specific amount… PDF CDF <ul><ul><li>Do not indicate the percentage of occasions during a 30-year time period when the change be less than the specified value </li></ul></ul>78% probability of being equal to or greater than 3 20 0 40 60 80 100 Size of change 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 22% Size of change 2 0 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8%
  11. 11. Uncertainty: “ How hot?” Answer 1 Answer 2 “ 42 ° C ” No information on uncertainty Very acceptable to some May be misunderstood as “no uncertainty” Uncertainty is explicit May be unwelcome – much more work required Better decisions possible
  12. 12. UKCP09 layered approach Communicators Researcher / Scientist Decision Makers
  13. 13. UKCP09 products
  14. 17. Online support – User Guidance
  15. 18. Online support – User Interface manual
  16. 19. Training support <ul><li>Projections in Practice (PiP) programme </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Familiarisation workshops </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>M ax 100 delegates </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>P resentations from UKCIP, Defra, Keynote speaker </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>H ands-on training on accessing the User Interface </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>10 delegates </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>National, s ector specific events (July 2009) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional events (Autumn 2009) </li></ul></ul>
  17. 20. Training support (cont.) <ul><li>eLearning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Aim to s upport and enhance PiP programme </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>D evelop communities of practice using UKCP09 to share understanding and good practice </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>D iscussion forums </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>W ikis </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>B logs </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>N ews feeds </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>W ebinars </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>P odcasts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>S pecific online resources to develop skills and understanding </li></ul></ul>
  18. 21. Supporting UKCP09 <ul><li>Online support </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dedicated website </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The User Guidance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The User Interface manual </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Help desk (FAQs) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Training </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Projections in Practice (PiP) programme </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>eLearning </li></ul></ul>
  19. 22. H o w UKCP09 might be used … <ul><li>“ Roads are being sanded as quickly as the Council can do the work but the Council can barely cope” (Oxford Times 2 nd July 2006) </li></ul><ul><li>Highways responded as gritters had been used for the first time during the summer as roads began to melt. </li></ul><ul><li>Council members asked for a post event review from the Highways Department </li></ul>
  20. 23. How could they use UKCP09? <ul><li>Highways were able to identify the conditions under which the roads began to melt. Air temperatures in excess of 35 ° C for more than 2 days. </li></ul><ul><li>Review the Observed trends report and Climate projections report, and evaluate if roads melting in the summer is likely to become a more regular event. </li></ul><ul><li>Use this information along with Key findings, the Briefing report and Pre-prepared maps & graphs, submit a report to council members to describe what had happened and suggest further research. </li></ul>
  21. 24. The need to know more <ul><li>With additional resources they could explore various UKCP09 products </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Using customisable outputs (from User Interface) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sampled data using t he Weather Generator </li></ul></ul>Benefits Limitations More specific detail 25km resolution Probabilistic data Monthly data Benefits Limitations 5km resolution L arge data set Daily information A ble to explore thresholds Less robust
  22. 25. Worked Example - Summary <ul><li>UKCP09 is suite of products </li></ul><ul><li>use the right product in the right place </li></ul><ul><li>St rengths and weaknesses to using each product </li></ul>
  23. 26. Useful Websites UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) UKCP09 Technical Site UKCP09 Helpdesk Training & e-learning resources for UKCP09