Job and Population Trends, What’s Ahead for San Jose and Silicon Valley  Center for Continuing Study of the California Eco...
A Turnaround in Silicon Valley <ul><li>Job and population growth resume in Santa Clara County </li></ul><ul><li>Our econom...
Recent Job Growth Trends
Recent Population Growth Trends
Key Economic Base Sectors Shifting Trends in Santa Clara County
The Bay Area and Silicon Valley Economy Today—Bottom Line <ul><li>A job growth and venture capital leader </li></ul><ul><l...
The Framework for Projecting the Future Economy <ul><li>Understanding national demographic and economic trends—the foundat...
Projecting the Future—The U.S. Growth Outlook <ul><li>Despite a delay in retirement for many workers, overall labor force ...
Aging of the Baby Boomers <ul><li>All baby boomers will turn 65 during the next 20 years—profoundly affecting labor force ...
U.S. Labor Force Participation Rates—Later Retirement Ages
Still, Aging Causes a Decline in Overall Labor Participation
Which Causes a Slowdown in U.S. Job Growth After 2015
Bay Area Job Growth—What Will Push Our Economic Base <ul><li>Manufacturing job levels will decline </li></ul><ul><li>Growt...
Bay Area Manufacturing <ul><li>350,000 jobs in 2007 (10% of the total) </li></ul><ul><li>Largest sectors are semiconductor...
Bay Area Professional Services  <ul><li>430,000 jobs in 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Major sectors are computer services (98,000...
Projecting Bay Area Job Growth <ul><li>Focus on the economic base—those sectors that sell goods and services across the na...
Bay Area Economic Base—Key Sector Growth 2007-2017
Bay Area Job Growth to Slightly Outpace Nation to 2017
Annual Bay Area Job Growth Slows After 2017
Bay Area Projected to Get Slowly Rising Share of U.S. Jobs
ABAG—The Source for Projecting the County’s and City’s Share of Regional Growth <ul><li>ABAG is the only source for analyz...
ABAG Projected Job Shares <ul><li>ABAG projects that Santa Clara County will get a rising share of Bay Area jobs </li></ul...
San Jose Share of Santa Clara County Jobs
Annual Job Growth
Total Jobs in San Jose +81,000 to 2020; +172,000 to 2040
Projecting Population Growth <ul><li>Regional population growth projected by CCSCE based on job growth trends </li></ul><u...
Components of Population Growth <ul><li>Recent County population growth has been split fairly evenly between natural incre...
Santa Clara County Population Growth
ABAG Projects San Jose and Santa Clara County To Grow Faster Than the Bay Area <ul><li>Santa Clara County had 25% of Bay A...
San Jose Population Growth <ul><li>Projected to add 13,400 residents per year to 2020 and 14,900 residents per year betwee...
San Jose Population +174,000 to 2020; +471,000 to 2040
DOF—The Source for Population Change by Age and Ethnic Group <ul><li>The only source for county projections by age and eth...
San Jose Population Growth by Age Group 2007-2030
San Jose Population Growth by Ethnic Group 2007-2030
SJ Population Growth by Age and Ethnic Group 2007-2030
Implications of Projections for Housing <ul><li>2/3 of household-age growth in 55+ age groups; 1/3 in 20-34 age groups </l...
Implications of Job Growth <ul><li>San Jose is projected to get 50% of the total county job growth so the city and county ...
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San Jose's Job & Population Trends through 2040

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This presentation details the population and job growth projections prepared by CCSCE (Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy). The information was presented to the Envision San Jose 2040 General Plan Update Task Force at their May 27, 2008 meeting.

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San Jose's Job & Population Trends through 2040

  1. 1. Job and Population Trends, What’s Ahead for San Jose and Silicon Valley Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy May 27, 2008
  2. 2. A Turnaround in Silicon Valley <ul><li>Job and population growth resume in Santa Clara County </li></ul><ul><li>Our economic base shifts toward information and professional services </li></ul><ul><li>Venture capital funding on the rise </li></ul><ul><li>The Bay Area is again a job growth leader in California </li></ul>
  3. 3. Recent Job Growth Trends
  4. 4. Recent Population Growth Trends
  5. 5. Key Economic Base Sectors Shifting Trends in Santa Clara County
  6. 6. The Bay Area and Silicon Valley Economy Today—Bottom Line <ul><li>A job growth and venture capital leader </li></ul><ul><li>Wage and income growth above the national average </li></ul><ul><li>Population growth reemerged despite high housing prices </li></ul><ul><li>A good economic base with lingering challenges of housing affordability, transportation and quality of life </li></ul>
  7. 7. The Framework for Projecting the Future Economy <ul><li>Understanding national demographic and economic trends—the foundation for Bay Area growth </li></ul><ul><li>Developing plausible projections of how the national trends will affect Bay Area growth. </li></ul><ul><li>Analyzing the implications for Santa Clara County and the City of San Jose </li></ul>
  8. 8. Projecting the Future—The U.S. Growth Outlook <ul><li>Despite a delay in retirement for many workers, overall labor force participation rates will slow </li></ul><ul><li>The baby boomer aging and eventual retirement will lead to lower national job growth rates </li></ul><ul><li>And job levels will grow more slowly than population for at least 2 decades </li></ul>
  9. 9. Aging of the Baby Boomers <ul><li>All baby boomers will turn 65 during the next 20 years—profoundly affecting labor force and housing market trends in the nation and here </li></ul><ul><li>In the Bay Area, baby boomers will be largely replaced by the children and grandchildren of foreign immigrants plus new foreign immigrants </li></ul>
  10. 10. U.S. Labor Force Participation Rates—Later Retirement Ages
  11. 11. Still, Aging Causes a Decline in Overall Labor Participation
  12. 12. Which Causes a Slowdown in U.S. Job Growth After 2015
  13. 13. Bay Area Job Growth—What Will Push Our Economic Base <ul><li>Manufacturing job levels will decline </li></ul><ul><li>Growth will be led by professional and technical services </li></ul><ul><li>Internet-related jobs will grow </li></ul><ul><li>Will a new industry emerge to push job levels higher? </li></ul><ul><li>Will we grow faster than the nation? </li></ul>
  14. 14. Bay Area Manufacturing <ul><li>350,000 jobs in 2007 (10% of the total) </li></ul><ul><li>Largest sectors are semiconductors (58,000), computers (40,000), electronic instruments (29,000), fabricated metal products (24,000) and food (22,000) </li></ul><ul><li>Most sectors projected to see job losses except pharmaceuticals </li></ul>
  15. 15. Bay Area Professional Services <ul><li>430,000 jobs in 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Major sectors are computer services (98,000 jobs), management services (54,000), architecture & engineering (48,000) and scientific R&D (45,000). </li></ul><ul><li>All sectors will see large job growth. Internet services is also a major growth sector in the region’s economic base </li></ul>
  16. 16. Projecting Bay Area Job Growth <ul><li>Focus on the economic base—those sectors that sell goods and services across the nation and around the world </li></ul><ul><li>Look at the “opportunity pot” – the projected national growth rate for key economic base sectors </li></ul><ul><li>Project the share of these jobs likely to be captured by Bay Area firms—old and new </li></ul>
  17. 17. Bay Area Economic Base—Key Sector Growth 2007-2017
  18. 18. Bay Area Job Growth to Slightly Outpace Nation to 2017
  19. 19. Annual Bay Area Job Growth Slows After 2017
  20. 20. Bay Area Projected to Get Slowly Rising Share of U.S. Jobs
  21. 21. ABAG—The Source for Projecting the County’s and City’s Share of Regional Growth <ul><li>ABAG is the only source for analyzing the projected Santa Clara County share of regional job growth </li></ul><ul><li>And the only source for projecting San Jose’s share of county job growth </li></ul><ul><li>ABAG analysis incorporates some local land use data and local input </li></ul>
  22. 22. ABAG Projected Job Shares <ul><li>ABAG projects that Santa Clara County will get a rising share of Bay Area jobs </li></ul><ul><li>And San Jose will capture an increasing share of County jobs—more than 50% of new jobs in the County </li></ul><ul><li>CCSCE used the ABAG share projections </li></ul><ul><li>But the City should review these projections with ABAG staff based on this project </li></ul>
  23. 23. San Jose Share of Santa Clara County Jobs
  24. 24. Annual Job Growth
  25. 25. Total Jobs in San Jose +81,000 to 2020; +172,000 to 2040
  26. 26. Projecting Population Growth <ul><li>Regional population growth projected by CCSCE based on job growth trends </li></ul><ul><li>The Santa Clara County share of regional growth was based on ABAG share projections </li></ul><ul><li>The San Jose share of Santa Clara County growth was based on ABAG share projections </li></ul>
  27. 27. Components of Population Growth <ul><li>Recent County population growth has been split fairly evenly between natural increase (births - deaths) and foreign immigration. </li></ul><ul><li>There was also a substantial out migration to other areas, which lessened in 2006, 07 </li></ul><ul><li>ABAG projects an increasing share of Bay Area population growth will come from migration, the reverse of what is expected elsewhere in California. </li></ul>
  28. 28. Santa Clara County Population Growth
  29. 29. ABAG Projects San Jose and Santa Clara County To Grow Faster Than the Bay Area <ul><li>Santa Clara County had 25% of Bay Area population in 2005—projected to get 30% of regional growth to 2035. </li></ul><ul><li>San Jose had 54% of County population in 2005--projected to account for 67% of county population growth to 2035 </li></ul>
  30. 30. San Jose Population Growth <ul><li>Projected to add 13,400 residents per year to 2020 and 14,900 residents per year between 2020 and 2040 </li></ul><ul><li>San Jose added 11,800 residents per year since 2000 and 17,300 residents in 2007 according to just released DOF estimates </li></ul><ul><li>Population projected to increase by 471,000 residents or nearly 50% by 2040 </li></ul>
  31. 31. San Jose Population +174,000 to 2020; +471,000 to 2040
  32. 32. DOF—The Source for Population Change by Age and Ethnic Group <ul><li>The only source for county projections by age and ethnic group </li></ul><ul><li>No city projections </li></ul><ul><li>CCSCE will use the DOF pattern of change for Santa Clara County in developing population projections for the City of San Jose </li></ul>
  33. 33. San Jose Population Growth by Age Group 2007-2030
  34. 34. San Jose Population Growth by Ethnic Group 2007-2030
  35. 35. SJ Population Growth by Age and Ethnic Group 2007-2030
  36. 36. Implications of Projections for Housing <ul><li>2/3 of household-age growth in 55+ age groups; 1/3 in 20-34 age groups </li></ul><ul><li>Virtually no growth in 35-54 age groups—a dramatic reversal of recent trends </li></ul><ul><li>Age trends favor smaller units and favor access to dynamic urban settings </li></ul><ul><li>Expect the market to respond to these trends </li></ul><ul><li>Implications for city services?? </li></ul>
  37. 37. Implications of Job Growth <ul><li>San Jose is projected to get 50% of the total county job growth so the city and county economic future are linked. </li></ul><ul><li>The city’s economic base will be in the R&D and “services” side of technology innovation—more detailed industry projections in the next project phase. </li></ul>

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