06_Day_1_Palmer

282 views

Published on

Published in: Education, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
282
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
28
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • 06_Day_1_Palmer

    1. 1. <ul><li>“ He believed in the primacy of doubt; not as a blemish upon our ability to know, but as the essence of knowing ” </li></ul><ul><li>Gleick (1992) on Richard Feynman’s philosophy of science. </li></ul>
    2. 5. “… one flap of a sea-gull’s wing may forever change the future course of the weather” (Lorenz, 1965)
    3. 6. 2-Day Ensemble Forecast from 24/12/99
    4. 7. Destruction of the church in Balliveirs (left) and the devastation of the ancient forest at Versailles (below). European Wind Storms: December 1999 100 lives lost 400 million trees destroyed
    5. 8. Ensemble techniques are being used to estimate uncertainty in global warming Murphy et al (2004) Stainforth et al (2005)
    6. 9. Ensemble members differ in the values of uncertain parameters in simplified representation of unresolvable eg cloud processes (< 300km)
    7. 10. IPCC (2001) range Previously unknown risk of catastrophic warming Stainforth et al (2005) Probability of Global Warming
    8. 11. The LACES Project Large Atmospheric Computation on the Earth Simulator 12-h development of Hurricane Earl: Sept.1, 1998: 1-km horizontal resolution

    ×