Tresvista Monthly Me July09


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Tresvista Monthly Me July09

  1. 1. Issue No. 1.11 MENA MONTHLY NEWS Month of July 2009 MENA MARKETS For additional 115.0 information or requests Country Index Close % Change or to be added to the 110.0 Saudi Arabia SASEIDX Index 5,778.1 3.2% distribution list, please Kuwait KWSEIDX Index 7,679.5 (5.2%) 105.0 UAE DFMGI Index 1,818.3 0.5% contact Egypt HERMES Index 579.4 9.5% 100.0 Oman MSM30 Index 5,846.2 3.1% Samir Tiwari Jordan JOSMGNFF Index 2,618.8 (4.6%) VP – Sales & Marketing 95.0 Morocco MOSENEW Index 10,971.7 (4.8%) +912261567304 Bahrain BHSEASI Index 1,502.2 (5.5%) 90.0 Qatar DSM Index 6,707.7 4.7% Tunisia TUSISE Index 3,628.0 (0.9%) 85.0 1. GCC Overview July-01 July-08 July-15 July-22 July-29 Lebanon BLOM Index 1,471.9 (0.1%) 2. Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi ADSMI Index 2,800.8 6.5% 3. Kuwait Saudi Arabia Kuwait U.A.E Egypt 4. UAE GLOBAL MARKETS 5. Egypt 6. Oman 115.0 Country Index Close % Change 7. Jordan 110.0 USA Dow Jones 9,166.7 7.8% 8. Morocco USA S&P 500 987.2 6.9% 9. Bahrain 105.0 USA NASDAQ 1,987.4 7.7% 10. Qatar 100.0 EURO DJ Euro Stoxx 2,638.1 7.7% 11. Tunisia London FTSE 100 4,608.4 6.2% 95.0 12. Lebanon Japan NIKKEI 225 10,356.8 4.2% 13. M&A 90.0 China HANG SENG 20,573.3 11.9% 85.0 July-01 July-08 July-15 July-22 July-29 Market Buzz… Dow Jones Industrial S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite DJ Euro Stoxx FT SE 100 Nikkei 225 Hang Seng COMMODITIES / CURRENCIES Commodity Open Close % Change Currency (USD/) Open Close % Change NYMEX Crude 69.31 67.04 (3.3%) GBP 0.607 0.604 (0.4%) Gold 940.80 940.00 (0.1%) EUR 0.707 0.706 (0.2%) Silver 13.76 13.50 (1.9%) SAR 3.750 3.750 (0.0%) LME Steel 395.00 390.00 (1.3%) KWD 0.287 0.287 0.1% GCC Snapshot - Kuwait, having one of the highest per capita consumption rates in the globe will link its power grid with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain in one of the biggest electricity networks worldwide worth more than USD 1.4 bn in July 2009. - According to official US figures, a sharp decline in crude prices allied with output cuts to reduce the UAE's oil export revenues by nearly USD 40.0 bn (AED 146.8 bn) in H1 2009 while OPEC lost a whopping USD 415.0 bn. From nearly USD 61.0 bn in H1 2008, the UAE's oil export income plunged to about USD 21.0 bn in H1 2009. - The combined value of projects planned or being carried out in the GCC totaled around USD 2.1 trillion (AED 7.7 trillion) …Governments have a at the end of Q2 2009, more than four times the estimated value of projects in June 2005, an annual growth of nearly 50.0%. direct role in more than - OPEC expects demand for crude oil produced by its member states to fall by 2.3 mn bpd in 2009. 60.0% of the USD 2.1 trillion (Dh 7.7 trillion) of major projects currently taking place in the GCC, making them less prone to risks of cancellations or suspensions. Across the GCC USD 833.0 billion or 39.0% of all active projects are being developed by the private sector, while USD 822.0 billion or 39.0% are being sponsored by the public sector… Product 2009. TresVista Financial Services, Pvt. Ltd ©. Mumbai, India. Page 1
  2. 2. Issue No. 1.11 MENA MONTHLY NEWS Month of July 2009 Saudi Arabia …Deal making in the Sectors % ▼▲ Company % Change 1 Month Index Performance CAGR 3.2% Middle East continued 5,900.0 Telecom 0.1% Top 5 Gainers: to contract in the first 5,800.0 Banking 3.7% Al Rajhi Company for Cooperative Insurance 732.5% ACE Arabia Cooperative Insurance 662.5% six months of 2009 as 5,700.0 Cement 3.0% AXA Cooperative Insurance Company 242.0% SASEIDX Index the credit crisis 5,600.0 Insurance (5.0%) Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Company 29.3% impacted companies 5,500.0 United International Transportation Company 26.4% active in this area. In 5,400.0 Top 5 Losers: the Middle East, PE 5,300.0 SABB Takaful (18.2%) investments plummeted 5,200.0 Abdullah Al Othaim Markets Company (15.8%) Alahli Takaful Company (13.1%) in H1 2009, with value 5,100.0 Jul-01 Jul-05 Jul-09 Jul-13 Jul-17 Jul-21 Jul-25 Jul-29 Bank Al Bilad (12.7%) slumping 79.0% to USD Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Company (12.5%) 314.0 million and Macro Economic News volumes sinking 41.0% ▲ The Saudi government has signed a SAR 10.0 bn (USD 2.6 bn) contract for the 6,000.0 km. second phase of the national to 13 deals from the border fence and security system. strong gains posted in H2 2008 of 22 deals at a ▲ The Saudi Ministry of Finance has approved 1,255 contracts with a combined value of SAR 94.6 bn, representing a 48.0% total value of USD 1.5 growth, during H1 2009 from the same period in 2008. billion… ▼ Saudi businessmen's defaulting debts to local banks are estimated at SAR 150.0 bn (USD 40.0 bn), according to economists who blamed flawed lending procedures and the kingdom's central bank for the problem. ▼ About 1,400 investors are demanding SAR 351.0 mn from the Ministry of Trade and Industry in compensation for losses incurred by a real estate investment scheme in Makkah. ▼ Saudi’s foreign assets dropped by about SAR 190.0 bn in H1 2009 to SAR 1,500.0 bn amid heavy public spending in a bid to boost economy. Government Regulations ▲ The Council of Ministers to adopt a new strategy focusing on the total employment of the Saudi national workforce in line with the recommendation of the Supreme Economic Council. Sector News ▲ Saudi Arabia accounted for over USD 5.9 bn in outbound tourism expenditure from around 4.0 mn Saudi tourists in 2008, underlining the significant importance of the tourism sector in the Kingdom's economic growth. ▲ Saudi Arabia's banks netted about SAR 14.2 bn (AED 13.9 bn) in profits in the first five months of 2009 despite a sharp slowdown in their domestic credits due to slackening domestic demand and their focus on foreign markets. ▲ Saudi Arabia will slash gasoline imports by 40.0% in July 2009 as new domestic production capacity comes online. The Kingdom is expected to import around 34,100.0 bpd of the motor fuel in July 2009, because of the start – up of a gasoline production unit at its USD 10.3 bn Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Company. ▲ Saudi cement firms dispatched 19.4 mn tonnes of cement in H1 2009, up 4.7% from the same period earlier. ▲ Arab Advisors Group revealed a 9.3% current growth in the Kingdom's IT sector ranking them first among Arab countries in terms of e-Commerce growth, as the value of e-Commerce transactions in Saudi has peaked at SAR 12.0 bn. ▼ The non – petroleum exports of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia declined during Q1 2009, compared to the same period in 2008, by 21.0%. The exports dropped from SAR 30.1 bn in 2008 to SAR 23.7 bn, according to a latest report issued by the Central Department of Statistics and Information. Company News ▲ Aramco has awarded USD 745.0 mn engineering, procurement and construction deal to Petro Steel to build a tank farm for its 400,000.0 bpd Jubail refinery on the Kingdom's Gulf coast. ▲ A consortium led by Al Inma Bank will provide a USD 2.5 bn financing for the Rabigh power plant being built by Saudi Electricity Co. …According to ▲ Saudi Electricity Company signed a 15 – year, SAR 2.6 bn loan agreement with the Public Investment Fund to finance its International Monetary newly established power plants in Riyadh. Fund, Middle East economies will expand ▲ Banks have begun to receive invitations to commit financing to the USD 9.6 bn Jubail Refinery, with documentation by 2.0%, compared to indicating that the project will require debt financing of over USD 6.0 bn. 5.2% in 2008. The ▲ Saudi Aramco and France's Total signed 13 agreements with contractors to build a USD 9.6 bn JV refinery in the kingdom. growth forecast for The two companies awarded the contracts for the 400,000 bpd refinery in June 2009. 2010 was raised to ▲ Samsung won a USD 1.6 bn contract for two refinery plants from SATORP, a JV between Aramco and Total, which will be 3.7%. It now sees constructed in Al – Jubail. world economic growth of 2.5% in 2010, ▲ Astra Industrial Group to acquire a 51.0% stake in Al Maseera International's steel unit in Jordan, for the total value of SAR compared with an April 225.0 mn. projection of 1.9%... ▲ The Savola Group announced that its 80.0% owned subsidiary, Al Azizia Panda United Company, would purchase assets from Fawaz Alhokair Group for a total price of SAR 440.0 mn (USD 117.3 mn). Product 2009. TresVista Financial Services, Pvt. Ltd ©. Mumbai, India. Page 2
  3. 3. Issue No. 1.11 MENA MONTHLY NEWS Month of July 2009 ▲ Assir acquired 3.2 mn square-meters of land paying SAR 210.0 mn for the purchase to build a medical, educational, and Foreign exchange residential city in northern Riyadh. reserves in the GCC are ▲ Aramco awarded contracts to the BGP Arabia Company Ltd. to launch exploration in the Empty Quarter and the Red Sea, and still low in relation to oil reserves at the Manifa field. GDP. At the end of 2008 there were still ▲ Marafiq signed a SAR 2.7 bn contract with South Korea’s Hanwha Engg and Construction Co. for setting up two steam- ample buffers, in turbine generator plants with a combined generation capacity of 500 MW. particular in the UAE, Liquidity / Capital raising Saudi Arabia, and - The retail tranche of Saudi Steel Pipe Co.'s IPO was more than three times covered and the company will start reimbursing Kuwait. surpluses to individual subscribers. About 1.300 mn subscribers have injected SAR 657.2 mn (USD 175.2 mn) in the seven – day IPO that closed July 3, 2009. - The annual growth of M3, the broadest measure of money circulating in the economy, slowed to 16.4% in June, compared with 16.9% in May. Product 2009. TresVista Financial Services, Pvt. Ltd ©. Mumbai, India. Page 3
  4. 4. Issue No. 1.11 MENA MONTHLY NEWS Month of July 2009 Kuwait …Gold production in Sectors % ▼▲ Company % Change 1 Month Index Performance CAGR (5.2%) the Middle East will 8,200.0 Insurance (2.9%) Top 5 Gainers: more than triple in 2009 8,000.0 Banks (7.5%) Al Maidan Clinic for Oral Health Services 137.3% Food (3.3%) Mushrif Trading and Contracting Company 41.8% from 2006, according to 7,800.0 Service (2.3%) Osoul Investment Company 28.1% KWSEIDX Index an estimate by the US Real Estate (6.3%) 7,600.0 Future Communications Company Global 25.9% Geological Survey Industries (6.5%) Hayat Communications Company 25.9% 7,400.0 (USGS). The region Investment (8.1%) Top 5 Losers: 7,200.0 produced 7.8 tons of Gulfinvest International (43.9%) 7,000.0 gold in 2006 and National Company for Consumer Industries (29.5%) National Cleaning Company (26.8%) expects to enhance this 6,800.0 Jul-01 Jul-05 Jul-09 Jul-13 Jul-17 Jul-21 Jul-25 Jul-29 Al Qurain Holding Company (24.6%) figure to 22.0 tons in Kout Food Group (24.5%) 2009. Gold production Macro Economic News is then expected to marginally increase to ▲ National Bank of Kuwait expected a fiscal surplus for FY 2009 – 10 in the range of KWD 4.2 to KWD 7.3 bn, provided that 25.0 tons in 2011… oil prices averaged USD 63.00 to 71.00 per barrel. ▲ Kuwait’s central bank reduced its three repurchase rates by 25 basis points each to spur the economy and lending, but left its benchmark discount rate. ▲ Kuwait plans to auction stakes in three transportation system projects worth up to KWD 1.5 bn (USD 5.2 bn) next year. ▼ The world’s fourth largest oil company, Chevron, announced that they will be closing their offices and operations in Kuwait. ▼ The volume of Kuwait’s foreign trade decreased by 46.0% to reach KWD 4.1 bn during Q1 2009 due to a decline in the oil prices. …According to National Bank of GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS Kuwait (NBK), of the ▲ The Kuwaiti Cabinet approved a draft bill on unemployment benefits in a bid to contain the economic and social impacts of current USD 2.1 trillion the global crisis on the local labor market of projects in the GCC, some 29.0% (USD Sector News 610.0 billion) are ▲ Kuwait's investment plan involves increasing gas production to 1.5 – 2.0 bn cubic feet a day by 2015, as well as boosting oil already under way, with production capacity above the current 3.1 mn barrels a day. the remainder at the ▲ The gross leasable area in Kuwait’s retail sector is expected to hit 1.2 mn square meters by 2010, according to latest industry planning stage. The reports. majority – some 73.0% – of all developments ▲ Kuwait's Directorate General of Civil Aviation reported an increase in passenger activity by 10.0%, commercial flights by 34.0%, and air cargo by 8.0% in June 2009. Non – commercial flights decreased by 17.0% during June 2009, as the total are civil construction – type projects. This number of passengers recorded was 718,000 in comparison to 656,000 in June 2008. emphasizes the sector's ▲ Kuwait’s real estate business remarkably surged in Q2 2009 where total property investment went up to KWD 149.0 mn. crucial role, not just in ▼ Kuwait’s Commercial property prices dropped by 7.1%. developing the region's ▼ Following its review of Kuwaiti banks, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services has lowered its long – term counterparty credit future, but in the GCC's rating on Gulf Bank to ‘BBB+’ from ‘A-’ and affirmed the ‘A – 2’ short – term rating. recent economic performance as well… ▼ Real estate sales volume in Kuwait declined by 17.0% during May 2009 compared to April, falling to its second weakest level in five months. A total of 314 sales transactions were registered at a value of KWD 80.1 mn. Company News ▲ Agility, along with DynCorp International and CH2M Hill, was granted a USD 6.5 bn U.S. army contract for the support of the latter's operations in Afghanistan. ▲ Kuwait’s Al – Themar International Holding Co won central bank approval to buy 20.0% in Islamic lender Boubyan Bank. …According to credit Securities Group Co said it also had won approval to buy ~10.0% in Boubyan Bank. rating agency Fitch ▲ Kuwait's KGL Investment Co. is setting up an investment fund to acquire infrastructure projects in the MENA region worth Ratings, the credit USD 850.0 mn. outlook for GCC property and ▲ Aggregate profits for 32 companies which announced their H1 2009 results stood at 459.2 mn KWD for H1 2009, registering a construction issuers decline of 44.2%. remains broadly stable Liquidity / Capital raising due to varying degrees ▲ Kuwaiti money supply growth accelerated to 21.5% in June 2009 from 17.7% in May 2009. Money supply, measured as M2, of state ownership. rose to KWD 25.2 bn on June 30, 2009, from KWD 20.7 bn on June 30, 2008. Demand for construction and ▲ Kuwait Investment Authority or KIA prepared a draft plan to inject more liquidity to support the local bourse and local property is falling banks. KIA, the country' sovereign wealth fund, is awaiting the approval of the government's development program and then across the GCC, and it will start implementing its own plan keeping it in line with the government's program. access to finance - A'ayan Leasing and Investment Co. is currently renewing its outstanding debts worth KWD 370.0 mn (USD 1.3 bn) for remains difficult… periods ranging from one to six months. Product 2009. TresVista Financial Services, Pvt. Ltd ©. Mumbai, India. Page 4
  5. 5. Issue No. 1.11 MENA MONTHLY NEWS Month of July 2009 UAE …Moody's Investors 1 Month Index Performance CAGR 0.5% Sectors % ▼▲ Company % Change Service said the sector 1,900.0 Insurance Index (6.5%) Top 5 Gainers: Health Care Index (2.2%) outlook for almost all 1,850.0 Aramex 36.4% Telecom Index 1.5% Residential Mortgage – 1,800.0 Construction Index (3.6%) Kuwait Finance and Investment Company 14.9% Backed Securities Union Properties 14.0% ADSMI Index 1,750.0 Energy Index 6.3% Islamic Arab Insurance Company (Salama) 12.2% (RMBS), Commercial 1,700.0 Real Estate Index 5.1% Bank&Finance Index 15.2% National Central Cooling Company 9.3% Mortgage – Backed 1,650.0 Industrial Index 1.0% Top 5 Losers: Securities (CMBS), and 1,600.0 Consumer Index (1.0%) Arab Insurance Group (20.0%) Asset – Backed 1,550.0 Al Salam Bank - Sudan (11.1%) Securities (ABS) 1,500.0 Jul-01 Jul-05 Jul-09 Jul-13 Jul-17 Jul-21 Jul-25 Jul-29 Ekttitab Holding Company (11.0%) structured finance asset Al Mazaya Holding Company (9.9%) SHUAA Capital (7.6%) classes in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa Macro Economic News remains negative. The ▲ According to the Governor of the UAE Central Bank, the bank may buy a part of Government of Dubai’s second tranche of rating agency's five – year USD 20.0 bn bond programme. expectation is that ▲ According to the Dubai Statistics Center, Dubai has recorded a significant drop in inflation rate as it reduced to 5.4% during further quarters of GDP January to May 2009 compared to 8.7% during the same period last year mainly because of a sharp fall in property rents. contraction and rises in unemployment in all the ▲ The Government of Dubai has unveiled a Financial Support Fund, designed to manage and distribute USD 20.0 bn worth of countries covered in this state funds to government owned entities. The support fund is aimed at government and government – linked companies and study lie ahead and that institutions and not at private companies. asset performance will ▲ According to a survey by Booz & Company, a surprising 55.0% of consumers in the UAE have maintained consistent spending continue to react to levels since the downturn began. A further 37.0% have reduced spending and the rest are spending more. macroeconomic trends ▲ The UAE economy grew 7.4% in 2008, due to high oil prices. Inflation jumped to 12.3% in 2008 due to property rental prices with a delay… rising by 13.4%. ▲ A surge in domestic demand boosted UAE's imports by nearly 45.0% to AED 585.0 bn in 2008 to become the largest trade destination in the Arab World. ▼ In H1 2009, the consumer price index fell by 2.7%, due to a 5.8% decline in housing costs and a 2.0% slippage in food prices. ▼ The UAE unemployment rate increased to ~4.0% in 2008 from 3.5% in 2007 and is expected to record another small rise in 2009 because of a slowdown in the economy. ▼ Exports from Dubai declined by 16.0% to AED 90.3 bn in H1 2009 compared to H1 2008. June recorded the highest monthly export volume valued at AED 17.0 bn. Government Regulations ▲ All institutions registered under the Labour Ministry will, from September 2009, start making payment of their workers' salaries through the newly introduced Wages Protection System (WPS). Sector News ▲ Prices of building materials have fallen by 61.3% in May and June, according to Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD). ▲ Business Monitor International (BMI) in its UAE Infrastructure Report Q3 2009 has revised the real growth value for the UAE infrastructure industry upwards to 6.8% for 2009 against its original 0.9%. Industry value is expected to reach AED 86.7 bn. A similar level of growth is expected for 2010, with value climbing up to AED 95.9 bn. ▲ According to Abu Dhabi Tourism Authority (ADTA), the second edition of the month – and – a – half family carnival – Summer in Abu Dhabi – is expected to attract more than 150,000 visitors which will help boost the emirate's revenues and keep hotel occupancy rates high during the off – peak season ▲ The UAE travel sector has recorded a 7.0% increase in volumes in July since April, according to YouGov's Travel Tracker. ▲ 7 financial brokerage companies that are not affiliated to Abu Dhabi or Dubai banks are about to finalize the first-of-its-kind merger in the country with an estimated capital of AED 1.0 bn. ▲ The UAE pumped about AED 4.4 bn into the non-oil manufacturing sector in 2008 to signal a sharp recovery in such investments after a slowdown over the previous two years. ▼ The average official selling price (OSP) of Abu Dhabi crude oil grades fell 51.1% on year to USD 52.95 (AED 194.00) a barrel in H1 2009 on global oil price trends. In H1 2008, the average selling price of Abu Dhabi crude grades was USD 108.32 a barrel. …A report issued by IDC showed that IT ▼ Landlords in Dubai are incorporating a "non-renewable" clause in the yearly rental leases so they are not bound to adhere to spending in the GCC the rent cap of the Dubai Government. Rents are continuing to fall in Dubai as a number of developments have come on – countries is forecast at stream this year. This practice, however, is mostly followed by single unit owners, who need to rent their units to meet their debt USD 12.2 billion in obligations. 2009, a decrease of ▼ Steel imports to the UAE have dropped by almost 75.0% compared to last year. About 800,000.0 tons of steel were imported 5.8% compared to USD every month into the UAE during the peak months of July and August 2008. The numbers today stands at about 200,000.0 tons. 12.9 billion in 2008… Industry sources have said that import prices for rebar have crossed the USD 500.0 mark. ▼ According property consulting firm, Asteco, people locating to Abu Dhabi are now looking for apartments at 50.0% lower rents Product 2009. TresVista Financial Services, Pvt. Ltd ©. Mumbai, India. Page 5
  6. 6. Issue No. 1.11 MENA MONTHLY NEWS Month of July 2009 than current levels. There is a pent – up demand for more affordable homes as people locating to Abu Dhabi are looking for …The global Islamic apartments at 50.0% lower rents than current market levels. finance industry is now ▼ Land prices and rents for residential and commercial units in new developments outside the capital have fallen by up to 40.0% worth more than USD since the start of the year. The drop has been seen in areas such as Khalifa City A, Khalifa City B and Mohammed bin Zayed 1.0 trillion (AED 3.7 City. Rents are likely to decline by at least a further 10.0% over the next two months due to an over – supply of villas. trillion) in terms of assets, having ▼ Average rents for apartments in Dubai declined by 16.0% to 26.0% in Q2 2009 compared to Q1 2009, while office rents fell on quadrupled in the last an average by 20.0% during the same period. Studios saw the maximum decline of 26.0% with average rentals coming down to three years, as it AED 45,500.0 from AED 61,500.0 in Q1 2009. concentrates more on Company News diversification. ▲ Economic Zones World, through its flagship entity Jafza, and Dubai Aviation City Corporation are entering into a Unsurprisingly perhaps, collaboration that could result in the doubling of Dubai's top notch industrial and logistics infrastructure. The agreement sets nine of the top ten out to create ‘The Dubai Logistics Corridor’ a transport and logistics corridor, linking sea, land and air, bringing together for the Shariah – compliant first time in the Middle East all of the components needed to create multi – modal logistics platform. financial assets by country, are based in the ▲ Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) plans to spend USD 1.5 bn on acquisitions in the next six to nine months, and Middle East and Asia… investment targets include Iraq's power sector. Taqa is 75.0% owned by the government of Abu Dhabi and is one of the vehicles the Emirate uses to invest oil money. ▲ The UAE will establish a railway company with a capital of AED 1.0 bn to build a countrywide network of railways following a decree by President His Highness Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The new entity – Etihad Trains Company – will be wholly owned by the UAE federal government. Its mandate includes building a modern network of trains connecting all parts of the UAE to carry passengers and cargo. ▲ The proposed Emirates Development Bank, which is expected to be operational by 2010, will assist in providing funding for the 40,000 houses to be built for UAE nationals. The bank, proposed by the UAE Government as a merger of Emirates Industrial Bank and Real Estate Bank with an authorized capital of AED 10.0 bn, intends to partner with local funds providers within each emirate to achieve its objectives. ▲ Aabar Investments to acquire 32.0% of Virgin Galactic (VG), the space tourism flight division of Virgin Group, for about USD 280.0 mn (AED 1.0 bn). ▲ Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) has acquired DSM Energy of the Netherlands for AED 1.5 bn to help boost its North Sea production. ▼ Tameer Holding, a Dubai – based developer, expects to complete refunds to all investors in Al Salam City, an AED 30.0 bn project in Umm Al Quwain, by September – end. Liquidity / Capital raising ▲ The UAE's money supply growth was up 29.1% in 2008, reaching AED 899.1 bn (USD 245.0 bn) by the end of 2008, and trade balance surplus increased by 35.3% to AED 231.1 bn in 2008. …A recent survey of more than 600 ▲ Dolphin Energy of Abu Dhabi, in a move to increase its Qatari gas supply by one bn cubic per feet per day, is likely to executives in the GCC announce a bond sale of more than USD 1.0 bn (AED 3.7 bn) countries revealed that ▼ Heavy capital outflow by banks allied with a surge in imports and lower investment income to plunge the UAE's balance of 53.0% intend to hire payment (BoP) into a record deficit in 2008 after several years of large surpluses. After leaping by nearly eight times in 2007, more staff in the next 12 the BoP's surplus plunged into a record deficit of AED 172.4 bn in 2008. months. Only 13.0% - UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Energy Co (Taqa) has started investor meetings to raise at least USD 1.0 bn in bonds to finance said they will be investments and repay debt due next year. reducing staff levels over the same period, - Dubai based National Central Cooling Company (Tabreed), a provider of air conditioning systems for large – scale property while 34.0% will developments, has raised AED 1.1 bn in debt to help pay for its role in the Dubai Metro and other large projects. maintain current staff - Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank has bought back and re – issued about AED 1.0 bn worth of bonds that were to mature in levels until Q2 2010… November 2009. - Ras Al Khaimah has started investor meetings to sell Islamic bonds worth USD 2.0 bn. Product 2009. TresVista Financial Services, Pvt. Ltd ©. Mumbai, India. Page 6
  7. 7. Issue No. 1.11 MENA MONTHLY NEWS Month of July 2009 Egypt …A Bahraini proposal 1 Month Index Performance CAGR 9.5% Company % Change to forge a consensus 600.0 Top 5 Gainers: Egyptian Real Estate Group 198.5% among Gulf states on 580.0 Zahraa ElMaadi Company for Investment and Urbanization 92.3% alternatives to the 560.0 General Company for Paper Industry 90.4% controversial Hermes Index 540.0 Kahira Pharmaceuticals and Chemical Industries Company 89.0% sponsorship system and 520.0 Egyptian Real Estate Group 81.8% Top 5 Losers: for imposing a residence 500.0 Universal for Packaging and Paper Products (46.8%) cap on foreigners has 480.0 Arab Land Reclamation (22.3%) been endorsed by the six 460.0 Al Watany Bank of Egypt (20.2%) GCC countries. A 440.0 BLOM Bank Egypt (12.2%) Jul-01 Jul-05 Jul-09 Jul-13 Jul-17 Jul-21 Jul-25 Jul-29 Crédit Agricole Egypt (10.7%) committee of GCC labor undersecretaries Macro Economic News will be formed to carry ▼ The Central Bank of Egypt stated that its net foreign exchange reserves went down by USD 3.4 bn or 9.7% to USD 31.3 bn at out studies that will help the end of June. The net value of foreign assets at the local banks has dropped also to USD 10.9 bn, down by 20.2% in the the member states adopt year ending in June. similar policies… Company News ▲ Arab Contractors has won a USD 1.1 bn contract to build a 1,200-bed hospital in Kuwait. The 16 – storey Jaber Al-Ahmad Al- Sabah hospital will be the largest in the Middle East and represents the biggest contract won by the company. ▲ London-based private equity firm Actis will pay USD 244.0 mn for a 9.3% stake in Egypt's Commercial International Bank, or CIB, making it CIB's largest single investor. Liquidity / Capital Raising - Egypt's Raya Holding for Technology and Communications will buy back 2.700 mn treasury shares. Product 2009. TresVista Financial Services, Pvt. Ltd ©. Mumbai, India. Page 7
  8. 8. Issue No. 1.11 MENA MONTHLY NEWS Month of July 2009 Other Countries …Total foreign assets held by GCC central Oman banks and sovereign ▲ National Economy Minister Ahmed bin Abdulnabi Macki said the non – oil sectors had been behind the Omani economy's wealth funds shrank by strong growth in 2008 as compared to 2007. The GDP at current prices of non – oil sectors rose from OMR 6.4 bn in 2007 to 8.3% during the H1 about OMR 8.6 bn in 2008, a growth of 32.6%. 2009 to just over USD ▲ The Muscat Municipality signed five agreements worth OMR 200.0 mn to construct waste water disposal projects. Haya 1.1 trillion by the end of Water aims to provide clean sewerage services to 80.0% of residents in Muscat by 2014. June 2009. These ▲ Electricity and desalinated water production grew significantly in 2008 in trend with projected demand growth, the Oman combined foreign assets Power and Water Procurement Company stated in its 2008 Annual Report issued. According to OPWP’s Annual Report, stood at around USD electricity production rose 11.0% to 14,017.0 GWh during 2008 compared to 2007’s tally. 1.2 trillion at the end of December 2008. The ▲ At the end of April 2009, total crude production reached 94.335 mn barrels compared to 89.936 mn during the same period in UAE accounts for the 2008, the ministry's monthly statistics report showed. second – largest amount ▲ According the Central Bank of Oman, total banking assets increased by 15.4% in May 2009 to reach OMR 13.7 bn in of these overseas assets, comparison to its level in May 2008 driven by the growth in credit of 23.6%. with around USD 350.0 ▲ Oman seeks to produce 804,000.0 bpd of oil by the end of 2009, according to its economy minister. billion… − According to the Omani Ministry of National Economy said that the Sultanate's M2 money supply growth, an indicator of future inflation, slowed to an annual 10.5% in May 2009 from 10.9% in April 2009. M1 money supply growth, a narrower measure that excludes longer – term deposits and money – market funds, rose to 4.5% in May 2009 from 3.5% in April 2009. Jordan …According to Economist Intelligence ▲ The trade deficit registered during the first five months of 2009 narrowed by 32.2%, reaching JOD 1,878.4 mn compared with Unit, economies of the the same period of 2008. Middle East and North ▲ A report issued by the CBJ showed that the kingdom's net foreign reserves rose to a record USD 9.2 bn at end of June 2009 Africa (MENA) region against USD 6.6 bn by the end of June 2008. Net foreign reserves stood at a high USD 9.5 bn as of July 15 2009, against USD are set to consistently 6.8 bn as of July 15 2008. outperform every other ▲ Actual revenues received by the Income and Sales Tax Department during H1 2009 was 10.0% higher than those recorded region in the world for during H2 2008, amounting to around JOD 1.4 bn. the next five years. The MENA region is the ▲ The value of shares purchased by non Jordanian investors amounted to JOD 1,530.1 mn, representing 25.4% of overall only one in the world trading volume while stocks sold stood at JOD 1,462.6 mn. that will register a ▲ Gross insurance premiums rose 10.6% to JOD 123.2 mn (USD 174 mn) in the first four months of 2009 compared to JOD positive real GDP 111.4 mn (USD 157.3 mn) in the same period of 2008. growth rate this year ▲ The government will sign an agreement with British Petroleum for development of Al Risheh gas field by end July 2009. although the 0.9% GDP growth forecast is a ▲ The International donor community has pledged to assist the Kingdom with a total of USD 1.1 bn in grants and soft loans for fraction of the 5.9% the 2009, of which some will be in the form of direct budget support. region witnessed in ▲ Tourism revenues in the Kingdom increased by 1.9% in H1 2009, total number of visitors to the Kingdom rose by 3.0% 2008. Going forward, generating revenues worth JOD 847.0 mn. however, regional ▲ The Labour Ministry finalized amendments to regulations governing the recruitment of expatriate workers, a measure expected economies are reckoned to facilitate the hiring of foreign workers and streamline the sector. to witness sharp GDP growth with 4.3% in ▼ Exports from Irbid to Arab and global markets dropped during H1 2009 by 19.0% to USD 181.8 mn compared the same period 2010, going up to 4.9% of 2008. in 2012… ▼ Real estate trading during H1 2009 fell by 38.0%, reaching JOD 1.9 bn compared to the same period of 2008. ▼ Jordan's central bank has taken over the management of Capital Bank after disputes within its board that would have threatened the bank's solid financial position. Bahrain ▲ The volume of Bahraini investments in Egypt has topped USD 500.0 mn. Bahrain's presence in the Egyptian markets will be … IPO activity in the boosted further with new projects worth USD 100.0 mn in the pipeline. MENA declined by a 87.0% during the H1 ▲ Annual inflation in Bahrain slowed to 2.7% in June 2009, its lowest level in 23 months, from 3.5% in May 2009. 2009 compared to the ▲ A recent report by the IMF predicted that Bahrain's economy would grow by 2.6% in 2009, twice that of the regional average. corresponding period of ▲ Gulf Investment Corporation (GIC) and GDF Suez have raised USD 1.6 bn for the financing of the USD 2.1 bn Al Dur water 2008. MENA markets and power project. collectively raised USD 1.2 billion (AED 4.4 - The official rate of unemployment remained stable last month standing at 3.8%. According to June's updated figures, 5,508 billion) in H1 2009, Bahrainis are jobless out of a national workforce of 145,000. down from USD 9.3 - Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) proposes to set the Cost of Capital Applicable to the Regulated billion during the same Telecommunications Activities of Batelco and Zain at 9.0%. period in 2009… - Al Salam Bank – Bahrain will increase its capital by a maximum of 250.00 mn shares allocated to the bank through a maximum of 1:2 share swap in exchange for the bank's total capital (500.000 shares). Product 2009. TresVista Financial Services, Pvt. Ltd ©. Mumbai, India. Page 8
  9. 9. Issue No. 1.11 MENA MONTHLY NEWS Month of July 2009 Qatar …According to Independent Finance, a ▲ A joint venture between Qatar Petroleum and ExxonMobil plans to sell up to USD 2.3 bn in bonds to finance the expansion specialist financial of LNG facilities services company, ▲ Vodafone Qatar, part of the Vodafone Group (VOD), saw its USD 928.6 mn IPO for 40.0% of its shares fully subscribed. 35.0% is a manageable ▲ Vodafone Qatar was listed on Qatar Exchange earlier in the week, the first company to find its way on the local bourse after its recovery rate when it new incarnation. comes to mortgage ▲ Commercial Bank has sold loans and advances and other exposures to the government amounting to QAR 3.0 bn as part of the defaults and 50.0% should be considered an Government of Qatar’s initiative to support liquidity, encourage banks’ lending capacity, and maintain the health of the excellent recovery rate. banking sector. There is increasing ▲ The Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority (QFCRA) has granted license to International Financial Services Qatar speculation about the (IFS-Q) to carry on regulated activities. kind of losses banks ▼ Qatar’s total domestic liquidity stood at QAR 183.9 bn in May 2009, down 4.5% due to the drop in oil price. Inflation in Qatar may have to suffer in has slowed from a record high of 17.0% last year. the country due to bad – Qatar Holdings, which manages strategic and direct investments by the State of Qatar, is talking to banks about a USD 6.0 bn debts in the property to USD 7.0 bn loan linked to its possible investment in Porsche. market… – Qatar Telecommunications Co is launching syndication of its USD 1.5 bn loan in order to increase the facility amount. Tunisia ▲ The World Bank has approved a USD 55.0 mn loan to fund a renewable energy investment project in Tunisia. Lebanon ▲ The Lebanese Tourism Ministry expects 2.0 mn Arabs – not including Syrians – and other nationalities by the end of 2009. The rate of hotel occupancy in Beirut has already reached 85.0%. Mergers & Acquisitions Announced Completion Transaction Value (In TV/LTM TV/ LTM S. No. Target Acquirer Industry date date USD mn) Revenues EBITDA 1 Al Maseera International Astra Industrial Group Steel 07/27/09 - 60.2 NA NA 2 Virgin Galactic Aabar Investments Tourism 07/28/09 - 280.0 NA NA 3 DSM Energy Abu Dhabi National Energy Company Energy 07/29/09 - 408.5 NA NA About Us: Headquartered in Mumbai, India, TresVista Financial Services Pvt. Ltd provides research, analytics, advisory, investor relations, and other customized services for asset managers, private equity funds, investment banks, operating companies, and other institutions. This document is provided for assistance only and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. This newsletter is provided for information purposes only. The information is believed to be reliable and is based on publicly available information, but TresVista does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions, estimates, and assumptions constitute our judgment as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Additional information is available upon request. © 2009 TresVista Financial Services. TresVista Financial Services Premier House, Plot No.38, 2nd Floor, New Wing, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (East), Mumbai 400 093 Product 2009. TresVista Financial Services, Pvt. Ltd ©. Mumbai, India. Page 9