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  • Marie L. Yovanovitch Ambassador Since international assistance to Armenia began over twenty years ago with the relief effort following the 1988 earthquake, the U.S. government has provided almost two billion dollars of humanitarian aid and development assistance for Armenia´s economic, social and governance sectors.
  • Budget (2009): revenues: $1.855 billion expenditures: $2.365 billion; including capital expenditures of $NA (2009 est.) Investment (gross fixed) : 38.6% of GDP (2009 est.)
  • Source: Civilitas , Armstat Armstat provides detailed figures on who invests in the country and in what sectors. The table below provides figures on annual FDI for the largest investors (except for Iran and Turkey) through 2007, as well as the net stock which accounts for mergers and acquisitions (eg, Russia vs Greece and Lebanon in telecom). An xls file with more detailed information is available on the data page of aea.am. With the exception of the past couple of years, the EU was the largest source of FDI to the country. What explains this robust growth in FDI? Is it because the base is too small? How much of this is accounted for by Diaspora investments? And why Russian firms, again with the exception for the past couple of year, had so (relatively) little presence in the country?
  • source: IMF
  • 95% of the interviewed migrants reported having sent remittances to only one household, on average remittances are sent every 4 to 6 months. We believe that the amount of remittances sent and savings brought to Armenia tend to be underreported. Thus the average presented here might be somewhat lower than in reality. (present Minimum maximum, mean). We notice a slight increase in the amount during the last trip, but that can be associated in the increase in cost of living.
  • As it turns out, there are significant challenges in society, too. Political engagement is limited; Georgia still does better than neighboring countries.
  • Reading a newspaper is often seen as a key component for engagement. How else are you going to find out about what’s going on?
  • This contributes to a polarized politics: maybe the problem is not only that the government doesn’t listen – the people also don’t really speak.
  • They also don’t really engage in public life. Not so much a matter of “bowling alone” [Putnam] but of not bowling at all.
  • Azerbaijan shows higher levels of contribution to charity. As we explain in a previous blog post, this also may be caused by religiously mandated giving.
  • We’ve also previously discussed this data: in Azerbaijan, as in Central Asia, village leaders occasionally mobilize their community for communal tasks.
  • Gender is one dimension of the challenge. Standards can be very different.
  • A favorite slide, but we cannot talk enough about this. From the World Values Survey.
  • The US has its range of social problems, and ist political apathy, but compare the immense differences.
  • Maybe „civil society“ is aiming too high, and one should have started with simpler issues: sort out your community.
  • In Azerbaijan 1% or less than 1% of the respondents had positive response to these categories.
  • Figures for the results of media monitoring in Armenia are very much alike the figures that the monitoring exposed in Azerbaijan.
  • Relations with Neighbours-South Caucasus
  • "The Minister and the Mining Sector" , started as an attempt to clarify why the country’s Environment Ministry was seemingly disinterested in tackling the looming ecological challenges facing the country in particular in regards to the rapidly expanding mining sector. Eight months later Baghdasaryan had discovered that the Minister of the Environment had been very busy awarding exploration licenses to 15 members of his family as well as his office assistants in violation of several statutes. As a result of these stories a study was begun into the mining industry and changes were made to create a public tender process and competitive bidding. A few months later the Environment Minister lost his job. This story showed the impact that can be made by collecting the documentation and using it in the story.
  • C:\Fakepath\Presentation FCO Feb 2010

    1. 1. Eurasia Partnership Foundation <ul><li>Recent projects: </li></ul><ul><li>Armenia-Azerbaijan </li></ul><ul><li>Armenia-Turkey </li></ul><ul><li>Armenia-Georgia </li></ul><ul><li>Freedom of Expression </li></ul>
    2. 2. ARMENIA <ul><li>ARMENIA </li></ul>
    3. 5. Armenia Budget (in mln. USD) <ul><li>The budget is divided into 11 fundamental categories: </li></ul><ul><li>Social security – 649 </li></ul><ul><li>General Public Services – 371 </li></ul><ul><li>Defense – 360 </li></ul><ul><li>Support to Different Economic Spheres – 300 </li></ul><ul><li>Education- 265 </li></ul><ul><li>Public Order, Security and Justice- 150 </li></ul><ul><li>Health – 147 </li></ul><ul><li>Housing and Utilities - 123 </li></ul><ul><li>Reserve Funds – 58 </li></ul><ul><li>Sport and Culture – 43 </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental Protection - 16 </li></ul>
    4. 6. US Assistance to Armenia <ul><li>The Obama Administration´s request for Armenia for FY 2010 ($30 million) is 25 percent above the last Bush Administration budget request ($24 million was requested for FY 2009; Congress doubled this request to $48 million). The actual level of assistance for Armenia for FY 2010 has not yet been determined by the U.S. Congress. </li></ul><ul><li>Regarding military assistance, the Administration´s FMF request for Armenia in FY 2010 is the same level as Armenia received in FY 2009. There has been no decrease. The specific increase for Azerbaijan is linked to U.S. priorities in peacekeeping and maritime security, particularly regarding proliferation and drug trafficking on the Caspian Sea. The respective levels requested for Armenia and Azerbaijan are carefully considered and calibrated to ensure that they do not adversely affect the military balance in the region or undermine efforts for a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; they do, however, provide appropriate assistance to each country that will enhance their interoperability and military professionalism. </li></ul><ul><li>The United States remains committed to its longstanding partnership with Armenia and the Armenian people. Helping the people of Armenia has been, and continues to be, a high priority. </li></ul>
    5. 7. <ul><li>Armenia </li></ul><ul><li>Population: 3,077,087 </li></ul><ul><li>GNI per capita (US$): 3,353.95 </li></ul><ul><li>Azerbaijan </li></ul><ul><li>Population: 8,678,851 </li></ul><ul><li>GNI per capita (US$): 3,829.04 </li></ul><ul><li>Georgia </li></ul><ul><li>Population: 4,364,460 </li></ul><ul><li>GNI per capita (US$): 2,471.88 </li></ul>
    6. 8. Economic Data (in mln. USD) 2008 2009 2010 Budget Revenue 2,244 1,967 2,177 Grants and State Transfers 42 58 121 Budget Expenditures (2,286) (2,025) (2,300) FDI 935 139 (Q1) Seasonal Remittances 760 Private Transfers 1,062 GDP 19,04 16,18
    7. 9. FDI to Armenia (2008, 2009) <ul><li>FDI (2008) $935 million (growth to 34%) </li></ul><ul><li>FDI (2009 Q1) it was $ 139 million , surpassing the investment level in 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>The EU accounted for much of this </li></ul><ul><li>France (mostly telecom) in particular with $84 million . </li></ul><ul><li>Russia $28 million </li></ul><ul><li>Argentina $11 million , and </li></ul><ul><li>US $8 mln. </li></ul>
    8. 10. FDI Trends in Armenia 2000-2007 <ul><li>2000 – 104.2 mln </li></ul><ul><li>2001 – 69.9 mln </li></ul><ul><li>2002 – 141 mln </li></ul><ul><li>2003 – 153 mln </li></ul><ul><li>2004 – 227 mln </li></ul><ul><li>2005 – 244 mln </li></ul><ul><li>2006 – 467 mln USD </li></ul><ul><li>2007 – 669.8 mln USD </li></ul>
    9. 11. Major Sectors of Investments in 2007 in Armenia <ul><li>Energy – 38.3% </li></ul><ul><li>Communication – 25.7% </li></ul><ul><li>Mining – 13.9% </li></ul><ul><li>Real Estate – 5.1% </li></ul><ul><li>Foods – 3.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Air Transportation – 2.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Hotels – 2.4% </li></ul>
    10. 12. Major Countries of Investments in Armenia 2006-2007 <ul><li>2006 </li></ul><ul><li>Russia </li></ul><ul><li>Germany </li></ul><ul><li>Greece </li></ul><ul><li>Argentina </li></ul><ul><li>USA </li></ul><ul><li>Finland </li></ul><ul><li>Cyprus </li></ul><ul><li>2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Russia </li></ul><ul><li>Lebanon </li></ul><ul><li>Germany </li></ul><ul><li>USA </li></ul><ul><li>France </li></ul><ul><li>Argentina </li></ul><ul><li>Cyprus </li></ul>
    11. 13. Number of Companies With Foreign Capital Participation in Armenia
    12. 14. Remittances and Capital
    13. 16. Flows to Armenia and Projections, 1995–2010 (IMF data)
    14. 17. FDI in USD millions
    15. 19. Migrants 2008 Remittances sent per migrant family Savings brought back per migrant family <ul><li>95% of seasonal labor migrants sent remittances to only one household. </li></ul><ul><li>On average the frequency of sending remittances is every 4-6 months. </li></ul>Trip Number of unsuccessful migrants USD Number of successful migrants Minimum Maximum Mean (USD) First 23 (8%) 0 254 (92%) 100 17000 1921 Last 13 (6%) 0 196 (94%) 7 12000 2802 Trip Number of unsuccessful migrants USD Number of successful migrants Minimum Maximum Mean (USD) First 33 (11%) 0 247 (89%) 10 1000 270 Last 17 (7%) 0 192 (93%) 20 1000 345
    16. 22. Armenia: Internal Situation
    17. 28. From what age do you think it is acceptable to have sexual relations before marriage? (2006)
    18. 29. Social Capital . How much control the respondents feel they have over their lives? (‘1’ means &quot;No control at all&quot; and ‘10’ means “Complete control,” % of total)
    19. 30. Social Capital . How much control the respondents feel they have over their lives? (‘1’ means &quot;No control at all&quot; and ‘10’ means “Complete control,” % of total)
    20. 31. Response to Issues
    21. 36.
    22. 37.
    23. 41. Arm_Azer <ul><li>ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN </li></ul>
    24. 42. Armenia-Azerbaijan Media Bias Reduction <ul><li>Journalists transparently recruited from all regions </li></ul><ul><li>20 from each country </li></ul><ul><li>Media monitoring and analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Training on conflict sensitive reporting </li></ul><ul><li>Confidence-building workshop in Tbilisi March 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Major areas for future </li></ul><ul><li>bi-lateral cooperation: </li></ul><ul><li>Bi-lateral news web-site </li></ul><ul><li>2 bi-lateral documentaries </li></ul><ul><li>about the victims of the </li></ul><ul><li>conflict, and </li></ul><ul><li>a series of bi-lateral articles </li></ul><ul><li>about the conflict and the </li></ul><ul><li>adjacent topics. </li></ul><ul><li>Report on public attitude toward and trust in media </li></ul><ul><li>... Ongoing </li></ul>
    25. 43. Armenia- Azerbaijan Media Bias Program
    26. 45. Armenia-Azerbaijan Media Bias CLICHÉS AND STEREOTYPES used in Armenian and Azerbaijani mass media <ul><li>Non reliable and suspicious records/data. </li></ul><ul><li>Cliché – words or expressions used solely in a negative context or producing a negative reaction </li></ul><ul><li>Stereotypes – frequently used conceptions expressed through words, ideas, characteristics and thoughts used either in a negative context or having a direct negative content. </li></ul>
    27. 46. STANDARD CLICHÉ AND STEREOTYPES <ul><li>In Armenian mass media </li></ul><ul><li>Karabakh is an ancient Armenian territory, Azerbaijanis are new inhabitants in this territory, Karabakh was never a part of Azerbaijan, but was united with Azerbaijan by Turkey or bolsheviks against the will of the local inhabitants. </li></ul><ul><li>Armenian and Karabakhi nations are </li></ul><ul><li>two Armenian States. </li></ul><ul><li>Nagorny Karabakh is an established independent State, ready to be recognized internationally </li></ul><ul><li>The right of the Nations for self-determination is the key international principle, which cannot be undermined by other principles, and serves as the single basis for conflict resolution . </li></ul><ul><li>In Azerbaijani mass media </li></ul><ul><li>so called ‘Genocide of Armenians’, fictitious, (fabricated/conjured) Genocide of Armenians </li></ul><ul><li>Armenia violates international law, international organizations must enforce sanctions against Armenia; Sanctions imposed on Armenia may contribute to settlement of conflict </li></ul>
    28. 47. RELATIVELY RECENT CLICHÉS AND STEREOTYPES <ul><li>In Armenian mass media </li></ul><ul><li>The signed documents do not concern and in no way can concern the settlement of the problem of the NK, which is an independent process by itself </li></ul><ul><li>Armenia does not regard the issues of territorial integrity and inviolability of borders, included in the protocols, in any reference to the problem of NK. </li></ul><ul><li>The statements made by Turkish leaders in regard to considering the interests of Azerbaijan during the signing of the protocols, have the aim of ‘comforting the junior brother’ and are addressed exceptionally to the audience of that country. </li></ul><ul><li>In Azerbaijani mass media </li></ul><ul><li>For the settlement of Karabakh conflict as well as for improvement of relations with Turkey, Armenia should comply with certain demands imposed by Azerbaijan </li></ul><ul><li>Improvement of Armenian -Turkish relations impairs the process of the settlement of Karabakh conflict. </li></ul><ul><li>Turkish-Armenia protocols will not come in effect before the Karabakh conflict is settled. </li></ul>
    29. 48. INEVITABLE CLICHÉ AND STEREOTYPES <ul><li>In Armenian mass media </li></ul><ul><li>Azerbaijan is for military of solution of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and, is assertively equipping with armory, to be prepared to resume the military operations </li></ul><ul><li>Without an equal participation of the Republic of NK in the negotiations, it is not possible to reach a final settlement of the problem </li></ul><ul><li>The participation of Turkey in the settlement of Karabakh conflict is not excluded, since Turkey and Azerbaijan are leading targeted politics aimed at strangulating Armenia </li></ul><ul><li>In Azerbaijani mass media </li></ul><ul><li>Separatists/Armenian separatists/ Karabakh separatists/ Karabakh’s separatism regime/ seat of separatism </li></ul><ul><li>Armenian aggression, Armenia’s aggressive politics, Armenian agressors, Armenia – agressors, Azerbaijan - victim of agression </li></ul><ul><li>Armenia’s position in the settlement of the conflict is desctructive, and Azerbaijan’s position is constructive . </li></ul>
    30. 49. CLICHÉ AND STEREOTYPES THAT CAN BE PREVENTED <ul><li>In Armenian m ass media </li></ul><ul><li>All Azerbaijanis as a nation are barbarians, aggressors, brutal, furtive, </li></ul><ul><li>violent, malicious, deceitful, and people with no heredity and culture </li></ul><ul><li>The Armenian side must not allow any concession to Azerbaijan, including the return of the regions adjacent to the administrative territory of Azerbaijan </li></ul><ul><li>Khojalu tragedy was fabricated or made up by Azerbaijanis to disgrace Armenians. </li></ul><ul><li>In Azerbaijanian mass media </li></ul><ul><li>Brutalism of Armenians, barbaric behavior of Armenians, Armenian vandals, Armenian fascists </li></ul><ul><li>The State of Armenia is created on the historic Turkish territory </li></ul><ul><li>Turkish-Armenian protocols will not be put into force before the territories adjacent to Nagorno Karabakh are vacated. </li></ul>
    31. 50. MIRROR IMAGE CLICHÉ AND STEREOTYPES <ul><li>the right of the Nations for self-determination is the key international principle, which can not be undermined by others, and serves as the single basis for conflict resolution </li></ul><ul><li>the settlement of Karabakh conflict is possible only on the basis of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan or the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is the key principle for the settlement of the conflict </li></ul><ul><li>“ liberated territories”, ”librated regions’’, “presumably occupied regions” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Occupied territories/land’’, ‘’captured territories/land’’, “Karabakh occupation/ Armenian occupation”, “aggressive, expansionistic politics of Armenia” </li></ul><ul><li>In Azerbaijan, in Nakhijevan and Baku in particular, massive destruction of historic and architectural monuments created by Armenians, is in process </li></ul><ul><li>In Karabakh and adjacent regions, natural resources, historic and architectural monuments are being destroyed </li></ul>
    32. 51. TOPONYMS <ul><li>Shushi - Shusha </li></ul><ul><li>Nakhijevan - Nakhchevan </li></ul><ul><li>Khojalu - Khojali </li></ul><ul><li>Kashatagh- Lachin </li></ul><ul><li>Khankendi - Stepanakert </li></ul><ul><li>Irevan - Yerevan </li></ul><ul><li>Geoicha - Sevan </li></ul>
    33. 52. <ul><li> 1 3.29 4.04 4.98 7 </li></ul><ul><li> Azerbaijanis Armenians Myself </li></ul>Participants And Non-Participants: Subjective Evaluation Of The Distance Between Themselves, Armenians and Azerbaijanis Azerbaijanis Armenians Myself 4.51 3.92 5.45 Participants (15 respondents) Non-Participants (15 respondents) 1 7
    34. 53. <ul><li>Growing self-responsibility (2 from 5) - they say that it is very difficult to write an objective article for the following main factors: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Existing common societal and professional stereotypes regarding the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, history etc.; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of information sources to present the situation from different viewpoints. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>So, they prefer not to write in this field as they realize that it is very difficult to ensure the objectivity. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Situational factors (3 from 5) – for this moment the professional engagement does not suppose the reference to this topic so it is only a result of the current situation. </li></ul>As A Result Of The Training Some Participants (5 from 20) Don’t Write Articles On This Topic Any More, As:
    35. 61. Armenia-Turkey <ul><li>Armenia-Turkey </li></ul>
    36. 63. Football Diplomacy Yerevan, Armenia, Sept 6, 2008
    37. 64. Football Diplomacy Bursa, Turkey, Oct 14, 2009
    38. 65. Signing Protocols
    39. 66. Armenian-Turkish Strategy <ul><li>Break Through </li></ul><ul><li>Freezing </li></ul><ul><li>Mild Optimism </li></ul>
    40. 67. Armenian Migrants in Turkey <ul><li>95% of all the illegal Armenian workers in Turkey are women workers; </li></ul><ul><li>most of the Armenian immigrant men don’t work and come to Turkey to </li></ul><ul><li>stay with their wives and keep them safe. </li></ul><ul><li>Both Turkish and Armenian people think that the moral values of Turkish </li></ul><ul><li>and Armenian people are similar. The behavior of Turkish men vis-a-vis </li></ul><ul><li>Armenian and Russian immigrant women differ. </li></ul><ul><li>Schoolchildren with Armenian citizenship cannot go to school. </li></ul><ul><li>Turkish schools admit only children of legally residing parents or citizens. </li></ul><ul><li>There are special schools for diplomats but those are very expensive </li></ul><ul><li>When a child of an illegal Armenian couple is born </li></ul><ul><li>in Turkey, the parents can’t apply for the citizenship </li></ul><ul><li>for their child. They can’t go back to Armenia, so the </li></ul><ul><li>child cannot receive an Armenian passport either. </li></ul><ul><li>They were full of mistrust to Turks </li></ul><ul><li>before they came to Turkey. Their attitudes </li></ul><ul><li>drastically change shortly after they arrive. </li></ul>
    41. 68. Armenian-Turkish Program <ul><li>An assessment of best practices in Armenian-Turkish Track Two Diplomacy </li></ul><ul><li>initiatives by ICHD </li></ul><ul><li>Two researches on consequences of a border opening on the Armenian and </li></ul><ul><li>Turkish economies and the capacities of local government authorities to respond to a border opening by AIPRG. </li></ul><ul><li>Dialogue between the analytical communities of the two countries on issues of mutual concern including European integration and global/regional challenges and threats. </li></ul><ul><li>Improving mutual media coverage of issues pertinent to the whole range of Armenian-Turkish relationships. </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing the amount of accurate and unbiased reporting of the bilateral relationship between Armenia and Turkey </li></ul>
    42. 69. Kardes Turkuler concert in Yerevan December 2008 <ul><li>100 people from Turkey arrived, </li></ul><ul><li>more than for Football Game </li></ul><ul><li>900 people attended the concert which </li></ul><ul><li>shows the multiethnic culture of Turkey </li></ul><ul><li>Turkish Film Makers at Golden Apricot </li></ul><ul><li>and Turkish-Armenian </li></ul><ul><li>Filmmakers Forum </li></ul><ul><li>negotiated 8 project ideas </li></ul><ul><li>which they are looking for funding </li></ul>
    43. 70. Armenia-Turkey Presentation of the research on State of Armenian Irregular Migrants in Turkey, Istanbul, Turkey
    44. 71. Armenia-Turkey Media Bias Genre <ul><li>TURKEY </li></ul><ul><li>The coverage consists mostly of: </li></ul><ul><li>news stories 53% </li></ul><ul><li>commentary and analysis 40% </li></ul><ul><li>A notable absence is interviews (only 3,6% of items) </li></ul><ul><li>ARMENIA </li></ul><ul><li>The coverage consists mostly of: </li></ul><ul><li>news stories 79.2% </li></ul><ul><li>Interview 7.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Commentary/analysis 6.6% </li></ul>
    45. 72. The weight of “the triumvirate of the officialdom” <ul><li>Turkish Press </li></ul><ul><li>The primary actor in the surveyed articles is, by a wide margin, The President: 30 %. </li></ul><ul><li>The Prime Minister and the Government : 12,5 % </li></ul><ul><li>“ Diplomats” as a collective identity are the third largest primary actor: 11% </li></ul><ul><li>People from academia: 2% </li></ul><ul><li>Armenian Press </li></ul><ul><li>The primary actor in the surveyed articles is, by a wide margin, The President: 28.4% </li></ul><ul><li>Government: 24.7% </li></ul><ul><li>Turkey as a State: 13,4% </li></ul><ul><li>Coalition Parties Of Armenia: 8% </li></ul><ul><li>People from academia: 11% </li></ul>
    46. 73. Sources <ul><li>Turkish Press </li></ul><ul><li>42 % of the primary sources represent the Turkish side </li></ul><ul><li>30 % represent third parties </li></ul><ul><li>Only 17% represent the Armenian side </li></ul><ul><li>Armenian Press </li></ul><ul><li>53.4 % of the primary sources represent the Armenian side </li></ul><ul><li>25.6 % represent third parties </li></ul><ul><li>Only 20.5% represent the Turkish side </li></ul>
    47. 74. A narrow view <ul><li>In Turkish Press </li></ul><ul><li>28% of the articles have one viewpoint </li></ul><ul><li>28 % of the articles have two viewpoints </li></ul><ul><li>17 % of the articles have three viewpoints </li></ul><ul><li>In Armenian Press </li></ul><ul><li>50.3% of the articles have one viewpoint </li></ul><ul><li>9.6% of the articles have two viewpoints </li></ul><ul><li>9.4% of the articles have three & more viewpoints </li></ul>
    48. 80. ARMENIA-GEORGIA <ul><li>ARMENIA-GEORGIA </li></ul>
    49. 82. Armenian-Georgian Civil Society Dialogue 6-9 February, Aghveran, Armenia Eurasia Partnership Foundation Open Society Georgia Foundation
    50. 83. Aims <ul><li>To initiate a strategic civil society cooperation process </li></ul><ul><li>To assess the current state of relations and perspectives for the future </li></ul><ul><li>To come up with concrete project ideas which will be implemented afterwards </li></ul><ul><li>To learn more about each other </li></ul>
    51. 84. Paticipants <ul><li>NGO </li></ul><ul><li>Media </li></ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><li>Research </li></ul><ul><li>Culture </li></ul>
    52. 85. General Principle <ul><li>Strengthening Civil Cooperation between societies of Armenia and Georgia in light of common European values will allow to accelerate democratic reform in both countries </li></ul>
    53. 86. Recommendations <ul><li>To Ministries of Education and Science of both countries: </li></ul><ul><li>To support studies for area specialists: Armenia specialists in Georgia and Georgia specialists in Armenia </li></ul>
    54. 87. <ul><li>To Ministries of Economy and business sectors of Armenia and Georgia: </li></ul><ul><li>To organize an international trade exhibition in Samtskhe-Javakheti region of Georgia </li></ul>Recommendations
    55. 88. Project ideas <ul><li>A series of TV talk shows with participation of Georgian and Armenian civil society representatives broadcasted in both countries </li></ul><ul><li>Translation of most significant publications from Armenian and Georgian media </li></ul>
    56. 89. Project ideas <ul><li>Comparative research of Armenian and Georgian legislations on Freedom of Expression </li></ul><ul><li>Joint monitoring and advocacy of ENP and EaP implementation in the areas of Free Trade, Visa Facilitation and food safety </li></ul>
    57. 90. Project ideas <ul><li>Youth projects: debate clubs and joint summer schools </li></ul><ul><li>Joint civil m o nitoring of border community relations </li></ul><ul><li>Joint monitoring of civic integration strategy in Georgia </li></ul>
    58. 91. Next Steps <ul><li>Presentation and dissemination of Consultation results to wider audiences in Armenia and Georgia </li></ul><ul><li>Establishing a non-stop communication process via internet </li></ul><ul><li>Making the dialogue between civil societies of Armenia and Georgia a reccurent process </li></ul>
    59. 92. TURKEY <ul><li>TURKEY </li></ul>
    60. 93. Turkey: Internal Situation. Turkish economy 1980 2008 Number of companies 90,000 640,000 GDP (billion $) 70 700 Per capita GDP (USD) 1,500 9,000 Exports (USD billion) 3 132 Exports per worker (USD) 65 1,800 Industry share in exports %10 % 92 (60% to EU and US) Number of exporters 1,000 47,000 Tourism revenue (billion $) 0,3 21 Ranking in the world 25th 17th (in terms of GDP) Slide
    61. 94. Post 1980s transformation as a result of economic reforms <ul><li>Before 1980s : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Import-substitution industrialization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Major industrial centers: İstanbul, İzmir, Adana, Bursa </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Peripheries: Kocaeli, Manisa, Mersin, Eskişehir </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>After 1980s: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Export-oriented industri ali zation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New emerging industrial cities (Anatolian tigers): Denizli, Gaziantep, Kayseri, Konya, Ankara </li></ul></ul>Slide
    62. 95. <ul><li>Mass urbanization </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Migration from rural to urban areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reversal of 75 to 25 percent distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Proliferation of industry in Anatolia </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gaziantep, Denizli, Konya, Kayseri, Kahramanmaraş </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Organised industrial zones experience </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gebze as the manufacturing base of Istanbul </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Transformation in retail sector </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shopping malls and new urban life </li></ul></ul><ul><li>An Unintended consequence: Political transformation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Look who is in power now!” </li></ul></ul>It is a process of total transformation: Slide
    63. 96. Emergence of a new(?) middle class Slide 1999 2003 2006 2008 Automobile Sales (in thousands) - 359 622 494 White Good Sales (in millions) 4 3 5.5 5.2 Airline Passengers (in millions) 30 34 59 75 Mobile Phone Network Subscribers (in millions) - 26.6 51.4 64 # of People Getting House Loans (thousands) 14 43 268 237 Consumer Credit + Credit Cards (billion TL) - 12.8 67.7 114
    64. 97. It is a process of total transformation: “Still under construction” <ul><li>Transformation process in Turkey is yet to be completed </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It should be seen as a process where Turkey has started to come to terms with her past history and her geography. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>There is a long list of domestic items that are under intense discussion. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>EU process is important within this context important for a smoother transformation. </li></ul><ul><li>It is not shift of axis but being aware of your geography due to growing business interests. </li></ul>Caucasian Future Slide
    65. 98. Rapid growth in manufacturing after mid-90’s Export indicators of the countries in the region (1996) Slide Country’s share in total manufacturing exports of the region (%) Share of manufacturing in Country’s total exports (%)
    66. 99. Today Turkey is the largest manufacturer in the region Export indicators of the countries in the region (2008) Slide Country’s share in total manufacturing exports of the region (%) Share of manufacturing in Country’s total exports (%)
    67. 100. Rediscovery of neighbours: economic impact of political rapprochement? <ul><li>Improvement of political relations with neighbours, 2000-2010 </li></ul><ul><li>EU dimension: Greece and Bulgaria </li></ul><ul><li>Russia : bilateral rapprochement sustained by energy cooperation </li></ul><ul><li>Syria : better understanding on security related issues </li></ul><ul><li>Practical effects of the ‘zero problem with neighbours’ approach </li></ul><ul><li>Trade follows the flag? To a certain extend but mostly… </li></ul><ul><li>Trade facilitation and border crossing improvements </li></ul><ul><li>Lifting of the visa : ie. immediate impact on cross-border tourism with Syria </li></ul><ul><li>Modernization of border crossings </li></ul><ul><li>Importance of the neighbourhood in period of crisis </li></ul>Slide
    68. 101. Sectoral diversification of exports to bordering countries Slide
    69. 102. Strengthening connections between Turkey and South Caucasus – work in progress <ul><li>How to improve trade?: Improvement of physical movement of goods between Turkey and the South Caucasus </li></ul><ul><li>Trade facilitation : modernization of border crossings with the Caucasian neighbours </li></ul><ul><li>Feasibility study on the rehabilitation of the existing transportation network as a practical business oriented confidence-building project </li></ul><ul><li>Feasibility study on cross-border economic complementarities to design private sector driven regional development projects </li></ul><ul><li>Socio-economic impact of the opening of Armenian-Turkish border </li></ul><ul><li>Rediscovering through economically relevant projects for the Turkish-Armenian borderland </li></ul>Slide
    70. 103. Meaning of border opening <ul><li>Why good for TR? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased penetration to the CIS market: complementarity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transport routes to Russia and Central Asia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional development problem tackled. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short term impact: more trade from border provinces; job creation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Why good for Armenia? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing the feasible set of economic operations is good. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competition brings welfare enhancement </li></ul></ul>Caucasian Future Slide
    71. 104. Still need for confidence building steps? Preparing the Road for the Restoration of the Medieval Bridge at Ani Cultural Corridor across Arpaçay/Akhourian River for Rebridging Turkey-Armenia Divide Slide
    72. 105. The project aims at preparing the ground for the joint restoration of the Ani Silk Road bridge <ul><li>Raise awareness for the need to protect the cultural heritage, to develop a cross-border political willingness for the renovation of Ani Silk Road Bridge, defined as a cultural corridor between the two nations. </li></ul><ul><li>An advocacy with the participation of officials, experts, business communities and civil society actors to trigger a momentum supportive of the initiative. </li></ul><ul><li>Channel resources for collaborative scientific research and investigation of international examples of multiple stakeholder restauration of the Ani Bridge </li></ul><ul><li>Support the decision-making process by setting cross-border governance structure and the joint restoration task elaborate recommendations for the establishment of operational mechanisms for consultation and consensus-making </li></ul><ul><li>Look for potential investors </li></ul>Slide
    73. 107. Cross-border tourism cluster Slide
    74. 108. FOE <ul><li>FOE </li></ul>
    75. 110. Hetq Investigative Journalists <ul><li>The “Global Shining Light Award”, </li></ul><ul><li>Lillehammer, Norway, 11-14 </li></ul><ul><li>September, 2008 </li></ul>
    76. 111. CRRC Data Initiative
    77. 112. Research on Freedom o f Expression and Censorship <ul><li>FoE is defined as an absence of f ear, psychological pressure, or punishment </li></ul><ul><li>FoE is valued when there are certain restrictions on it </li></ul><ul><li>FoE is equated to the ineffectiveness and lack of success of speech and actions in personal lives </li></ul><ul><li>FoE is perceived as a “fairy tale” which never occurs in real life </li></ul>
    78. 113. Article 27 Talk Show <ul><li>6 films produced </li></ul><ul><li>3 films acquired internationally </li></ul><ul><li>8 talk shows run </li></ul><ul><li>1 film banned </li></ul><ul><li>Shows repeated via Hamaspyur network on regional TVs </li></ul><ul><li>3000 viewership per broadcast, </li></ul><ul><li>total 5,000 TV clicks only in Yerevan, detailed viewership distribution available </li></ul><ul><li>Research on FoE produced </li></ul><ul><li>A package to teach a FoE course negotiated with Bryusov University </li></ul>
    79. 114. Freedom of Expression <ul><li>Checking and challenging the boundaries of </li></ul><ul><li>what is ‘acceptable’ to be discussed on TV </li></ul><ul><li>Giving a chance to ‘opposition’ film-makers to </li></ul><ul><li>express themselves </li></ul><ul><li>New faces and new talking heads on TV </li></ul><ul><li>Targeting the issues of corruption; tradition; </li></ul><ul><li>democratic values; government’s irresponsibility </li></ul><ul><li>Service to the Government: Armenia is not as </li></ul><ul><li>closed a society as it may seem </li></ul><ul><li>Making people learn how to be protagonists </li></ul><ul><li>and entrepreneurs of FoE </li></ul><ul><li>Engaging entire Armenia in public discussions via feedback and Hamaspyur </li></ul><ul><li>Attuned to the need of reacting to possible draconian changes in the law—in coalition </li></ul>
    80. 122. Open Door: A1+ <ul><li>To increase public access to </li></ul><ul><li>alternative media in Armenia. </li></ul><ul><li>A1+ will upgrade its popular website, </li></ul><ul><li>add video to articles, interactive </li></ul><ul><li>polls, a search engine, a news </li></ul><ul><li>ticker with breaking news, </li></ul><ul><li>and a blog which invites </li></ul><ul><li>comments from users. </li></ul><ul><li>+ SMS video news </li></ul>
    81. 123. THANKS and SOURCES <ul><li>EPF and partners </li></ul><ul><li>CRRC </li></ul><ul><li>TEPAV </li></ul><ul><li>UK Govt </li></ul><ul><li>Norway </li></ul><ul><li>USAID </li></ul>
    82. 129. Getting Involved Armenia- Azerbaijan-Georgia