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  • The Forecasting and Planning Process provides the basis for all Distribution system reinforcement projects. It identifies the why, when and where system relief and/or reinforcements are needed.
  • Planningpresentation

    1. 1. Utility Forecasting & Planning MADRI Meeting March 7, 2006
    2. 2. Purpose <ul><li>This presentation is intended to be a general outline of utility forecasting and planning techniques not specific to any one company. </li></ul><ul><li>It is, however, intended to represent a utility that is a PJM member, and is following a process that works with the PJM planning regime. </li></ul>
    3. 3. Planning Criteria <ul><li>A utility’s planning criteria are intended to be a guide to provide for the safe, reliable and low cost development of the utility’s electrical system as loads increase and reinforcements and/or new facilities are required. </li></ul>
    4. 4. Basic Principles <ul><li>With all facilities in service: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Load must be within normal equipment ratings </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Must provide acceptable voltages </li></ul></ul>
    5. 5. Basic Principles <ul><li>With the outage of any single piece of equipment (N-1 Criteria Violation): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Affected load must be within the emergency rating of the remaining facilities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>System must provide minimum emergency voltages </li></ul></ul>
    6. 6. Basic Principles <ul><li>N-1 criteria are applied in a similar fashion to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Substations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distribution Facilities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Subtransmission Facilities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transmission Facilities </li></ul></ul>
    7. 7. Basic Principles <ul><li>Transmission Planning Criteria </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Goes beyond N-1 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>N-2 (After the N-1 outage and re-adjustment, loss of an additional element.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Towerline outages </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stuck breakers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Transmission planning criteria are more restrictive than operating criteria to account for potential new generation, and network facilities’ forecasted and unplanned outages. </li></ul></ul></ul>
    8. 8. Distribution Planning <ul><li>Load Forecasting </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Substation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Feeder </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Distribution Circuit Reinforcement </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ratings </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>N-1 Criteria </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New Business </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Connected vs. Estimated Loads </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Load Build-up Schedules </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Load Shifting </li></ul></ul>
    9. 9. Substation Forecast/Planning Process Diagram for a Typical Utility
    10. 10. Substation Forecast/Planning Process Data Collection
    11. 11. Substation Forecast/Planning Process Data Collection <ul><li>CMMS Peak Load Data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>MV-90 Remote Metering </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Substation Data Concentrators </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inspection Data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data “Scrubbing” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Adjustments </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Voltage Reduction, Cogen, etc . </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reference Data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Station Type, Reactive, Power Factors, Feeder Info, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Load Transfers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Historical Trends </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Peak Adjustments </li></ul></ul>
    12. 12. Substation Forecast/Planning Process Weather Normalization
    13. 13. Substation Forecast/Planning Process Weather Normalization <ul><li>Weighted Temperature-Humidity Index (WTHI) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3-Day Heat Build-Up </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10-5-2 Weighting Factors </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Normalization Standard </li></ul><ul><ul><li>50/50 Historical Probability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>84 Degrees WTHI </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Normalized Peak Selection </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Load vs. WTHI Correlation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Exclusion of Data Points Below 73 Degrees WTHI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Exclusion of Non-Trend Data Points </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Current Year Weather Sensitivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5-Year Weather Sensitivity </li></ul></ul>
    14. 14. Substation Forecast/Planning Process Substation & Area Forecasts
    15. 15. Substation Forecast/Planning Process Substation & Area Forecasts <ul><li>Growth Factors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>General Growth – Load growth of existing and small additional customers is generally consistent with historical trending </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Specific Growth – Load growth attributable to major new business projects greater than 300 kW </li></ul></ul>
    16. 16. Diversified Specific Growth <ul><li>Adjusted for: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Over-estimation of Loads </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Load Profiles </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Delayed Project Completions </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Customer to Feeder Coincidence </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Feeder to Substation Coincidence </li></ul></ul></ul>
    17. 17. Coincidence Factor <ul><li>Substations feed a number of different types of load </li></ul><ul><li>Not all of the load will peak at the same time (diversity) </li></ul><ul><li>Expect any implementation of time-of-use or RTP tariffs to cause interval customers to change/modify load patterns </li></ul>
    18. 18. Substation Forecast/Planning Process Substation & Area Forecasts <ul><li>Forecast Worksheet </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Historical Trending </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Feeder Peak Synthesis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Forecast Performance </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Short Range Forecast </li></ul><ul><ul><li>4-Year Forecast </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Long Term Forecast </li></ul><ul><ul><li>9 Scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><li>High Tension Service Customer Forecasts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Developed by utility </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Area (Switching Station) Forecasts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Coincidized Substation Roll-Up </li></ul></ul><ul><li>System Forecast Roll-Up </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Coincidized HV Substation & Area Forecast Roll-Up </li></ul></ul>
    19. 19. Substation Forecast/Planning Process Substation & Area Planning
    20. 20. Substation Forecast/Planning Process Substation & Area Planning <ul><li>Substation & Area Capacity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Firm N-1 Criteria </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Includes Automatic ICT Transfers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Capacity Processing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Load vs. Capacity Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Load Relief Modeling </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Power Factor Correction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Load Transfers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dispersed Generation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>System Reinforcement Modeling </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Interstation Capacity Ties </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Station Reinforcement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New Station </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Generation (As Permitted) </li></ul></ul>
    21. 21. Feeder Forecast Process Data Acquisition <ul><li>Substation Operators collect data during station inspections via a Mobile Data Terminal (MDT) </li></ul><ul><li>Data is electronically uploaded into CMMS </li></ul><ul><li>Data is extracted into spreadsheet </li></ul><ul><li>Data is scrubbed – no data, broken meter, tie recloser operations, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Summer peak load is selected and utilized to develop the individual feeder forecasts </li></ul>
    22. 22. Feeder Forecasting Process Load vs. Capacity Analysis <ul><li>Peak data is used for Station Feeder Forecasts (Feeder Utilization) </li></ul><ul><li>Data is processed to evaluate overloaded circuits </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast sheets are used when a New Business Plan of Supply is submitted </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Is capacity available? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If not, how can circuit be relieved? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reinforcement jobs and New Business jobs are tracked on the Station Feeder Forecast sheets </li></ul>
    23. 23. How Do Projects Emerge? <ul><li>Individual substation overloads are not as critical if sufficient ties exist </li></ul><ul><li>Greatest concern - area overloads consisting of two (2) or more substations </li></ul><ul><li>Could cause cascading overloads and area outages </li></ul><ul><li>Time to reinforce when area overloads are present or could reasonably be expected to occur in the near future </li></ul>
    24. 24. New Business <ul><li>Division Planners are typically concerned with new business projects 300-kVA and greater </li></ul><ul><li>Voltage / Service characteristics can range from secondary to sub-transmission (277/480 volts up to 69-kV) </li></ul><ul><li>Types of New Business can vary from Network Service to Substation / High Tension service </li></ul>
    25. 25. Transmission Planning <ul><li>Entity Load Forecast </li></ul><ul><li>Regional Transmission Expansion Planning (RTEP) Process </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lead by PJM and coordinated with Transmission Owners </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Incorporation of utility’s T&D Planning results into PJM’s RTEP Process, PJM will begin zonal forecasting utility loads this year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Baseline Reinforcements </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Merchant Generation/Transmission Interconnections & Reinforcements </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Analyses & Tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Short Circuit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Load Flow </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>System Stability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LOLP (Loss of Load Probability) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Operations Support </li></ul>
    26. 26. Entity Load Forecast <ul><li>The Entity Load Forecast is an independent forecast of summer peak, performed by PJM </li></ul><ul><li>Used to set Zonal Scaling Factors in eCapacity and sets capacity obligations for all LSE’s </li></ul><ul><li>Relates growth in the PJM normalized peak to the U.S. economy (Gross Domestic Product) </li></ul><ul><li>This load is allocated to specific nodes using the various utility’s Distribution Substation Forecasts </li></ul>
    27. 27. Any Questions?