Nesdb Presentation

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  • สำนักงานคณะกรรมการพัฒนาการเศรษฐกิจและสังคมแห่งชาติ ( สศช .) ได้สำรวจภาวะธุรกิจในไตรมาสที่ 3/2542 และคาดการณ์แนวโน้มไตรมาสที่ 4/2542 ซึ่งได้สรุปผลการสำรวจดังนี้
  • Nesdb Presentation

    1. 1. Thailand Economic Situation in 2002 Arkhom Termpittayapaisith Assistant Secretary-General National Economic and Social Development Board 28 August 2002
    2. 2. GDP in 1 st quarter of 2002
    3. 3. GDP Growth in 1Q 02
    4. 4. GDP Growth (Supply Side) 2.4 3.6 3.8 3.1 4.3 3.2 <ul><li>Transportation </li></ul>2002 1.8 1.6 1.5 4.6 1.6 -3.0 6.2 1.2 1.8 1.6 Year 2.1 1.0 2.7 2.6 0.5 7.3 3.9 1.4 1.8 4.2 Q4 1.7 0.4 0.4 6.7 3.3 -8.1 6.1 1.2 1.8 0.9 Q1 2001 1.8 1.7 1.2 5.6 2.2 -12.9 5.9 1.5 1.9 1.4 Q2 1.6 3.2 1.7 3.9 0.3 3.0 8.9 0.8 1.9 -1.7 Q3 3.9 4.3 4.8 4.7 2.2 6.7 5.2 4.1 3.8 5.1 Q1 Agriculture <ul><li>Hotels </li></ul><ul><li>Wholesale and Retail Trade </li></ul><ul><li>Electricity and Water Supply </li></ul><ul><li>Construction </li></ul>Non-Agriculture <ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul>GDP <ul><li>Others </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Intermediation </li></ul>
    5. 5. GDP Growth (Demand Side) 1.5 -8.3 -9.4 -12.7 -7.1 -3.5 <ul><li>Imports </li></ul>-0.9 -10.6 -11.8 -14.4 -10.0 -6.0 - Goods 3.9 -5.5 -5.5 -10.6 -1.6 -3.5 - Goods 10.3 1.4 -0.9 0.9 1.2 4.6 - Services 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.1 2.9 - excluding tourism 5.2 -4.2 -4.6 -8.7 -1.1 -2.0 <ul><li>Exports </li></ul>14.1 4.6 3.1 -3.6 9.6 11.4 - Services 2002 -6.6 5.1 0.8 1.6 3.4 Year -11.0 4.5 -0.2 -4.2 3.0 Q4 -24.1 10.8 -4.1 2.5 3.8 Q1 2001 5.9 5.3 5.4 6.5 3.9 Q2 5.3 0.0 2.3 1.7 2.9 Q3 -5.1 7.8 3.5 8.0 3.6 Q1 - Public - Private <ul><li>Investment </li></ul><ul><li>Private Consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Government Consumption </li></ul>
    6. 6. Source of Growth (Demand Side) -1.7 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -1.7 1.6 Inventories 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.7 5.1 3.4 GDP 3.0 -2.8 -3.1 -6.1 -0.7 -1.2 <ul><li>Exports </li></ul>0.7 -4.1 -4.6 -6.9 -3.6 -1.6 <ul><li>Imports </li></ul>3.3 2.1 1.2 2.3 3.8 1.4 Domestic Demand 2002 1.4 -0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.8 Year 1.5 -0.6 0.6 0.0 -0.4 1.6 Q4 0.4 -2.1 1.3 -0.8 0.2 2.0 Q1 2001 2.9 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.6 2.2 Q2 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.2 1.6 Q3 2.4 -0.3 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.9 Q1 - Public - Private <ul><li>Investment </li></ul><ul><li>Private Consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Government Consumption </li></ul>Net Exports
    7. 7. Key Economic Indicators
    8. 8. Key Economic Indicators Source: BOT 16.1 15.0 15.5 16.0 15.6 16.0 Exports ( Bil. US $ ) 35.8 -70.7 -69.0 -24.8 6.3 -35.4 Gov’t Cash Balance ( Bil. Baht ) 10 6 .1 104.1 104.2 103.5 102.3 101.5 Private Consumption Index 57.8 58.2 55.1 52.2 51.7 55.4 Industrial Capacity Utilization 121.3 118.3 115.6 112.7 112.3 113.3 Manufacturing Production Index ( SA ) (-10.2) 14.3 (-6.3) 45.6 Q1 2002 (2.0) 15.5 (3.4) 50.6 Q2 2001 (-13.9) 14.5 (-13.4) 44.1 Q4 (-9.1) 15.0 (-11.0) 39.7 Q3 (-0.7) (-1.2) ( % Change ) (2.9) 15.2 42.8 Q2 (11.5) 15.9 39.9 Q1 Private Investment Index ( % Change ) Imports ( Bil. US $ )
    9. 9. International Trade Source: BOT
    10. 10. Growth of Exports Classified by Commodities Source: BOT 1.4 -8.3 -11.1 -15.1 -16.8 -13.1 <ul><li>Unit Value </li></ul>-0.4 14.5 5.9 14.7 20.1 11.1 <ul><li>Volume </li></ul>-11.1 -13.8 -8.6 -0.6 1.0 2.3 <ul><li>Unit Value </li></ul>16.3 8.8 -5.3 -10.5 -1.6 -3.5 <ul><li>Volume </li></ul>3.5 -6.3 -13.4 -11.0 -0.7 -1.2 Total Exports -14.1 8.5 -6.9 5.1 Q1 2002 -12.2 18.8 4.2 1.1 Q2 2001 -7.7 -6.1 -13.3 -6.1 Q4 1.3 -13.4 -12.1 -2.4 Q3 -0.2 -1.1 Manufacturing Products 3.0 -3.0 -0.2 Q2 3.8 -4.6 -3.3 Q1 Agriculture Products <ul><li>Unit Value </li></ul><ul><li>Volume </li></ul>
    11. 11. Private Investment, Private Investment Index, and Business Expectations Index
    12. 12. Growth of PCE and Private Consumption Index
    13. 13. Growth of MPI, and Industrial Capacity Utilization
    14. 14. Employment Source: NSO, BOT, MOL -19.5 -16.9 -19.8 8.5 6.30 3.7 1.25 31.94 33.89 Apr 16.1 -13.9 -32.0 3.0 5.98 2.7 0.90 31.45 33.12 Mar 6.59 5.80 Insured Persons ( millions ) -18.7 -14.3 Growth Rate of Thai Traveling Abroad -20.2 -17.1 Growth Rate of Newly Employed -35.0 -13.5 Growth Rate of Persons Loosing Jobs 12.8 0.1 Change ( % yoy ) 2.9 4.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 1.00 1.33 Unemployed Persons ( thousands ) 31.97 30.39 Employed Persons ( thousands ) 33.96 32.87 Labor Force ( thousands ) May p Mar 2002 2001
    15. 15. Interest Rate Movement Remarks : 1/ average interest rates of five biggest commercial banks at the end of period 2/ real lending rate = interest income from loan / average loan 3/ real deposit = interest expense for deposit / average deposit 4/ including those in commercial banks’ AMCs 2.89 2.17 5.06 2.0 7.125 Q1 2002 - - - 2.0 7.10 Q2 3.14 2.36 5.49 2.25 7.25 Q4 2.14 2.72 4.86 2.50 7.40 Q1 2001 2.46 2.44 4.90 2.50 7.40 Q2 2.71 2.38 5.10 2.50 7.40 Q3 MLR 1/ Real Deposit Rate 3/ Spread 3-month Deposit Rate 1/ Real Lending Rate 2/,4/
    16. 16. Stock Market : SET Index July
    17. 17. Economic Trend
    18. 18. Economic Forecast 1.6 4.2 4.6 2.3 8.0 3.6 4.2 3.0 5.0 4.3 2.0 - 3.0 18 Mar. Estimated 2002 Preliminary 3.5-4.0 1.8 4.6 GDP Growth(%) 2.0 -6.6 -9.9 <ul><li>Public investment </li></ul>5.8 5.1 17.2 <ul><li>Private investment </li></ul>1.7 -6.9 19.5 Exports (% yoy) 8.0 1.6 2.6 <ul><li>Public consumption </li></ul>3.5 3.4 4.9 <ul><li>Private consumption </li></ul>4.2 3.1 4.6 Consumption (%) 4.5 0.8 5.5 Investment (%) 1.3 1.6 1.5 CPI (%) 3.6 4.5 17 Jun. 5.3 -2.8 2001 7.6 31.4 2000 Current account balance (% GDP) Imports (% yoy)
    19. 19. Comparing to Other Agencies 3.5-4.0 3.6 3.0-4.0 3.5-4.0 2 002 Projection - NESDB 2.5-4.0 BOT - Consensus - 2 003 MOF
    20. 20. Outlook for Latter Half of this Year Supporting Factors Risk Factors <ul><li>Low interest rate environment. </li></ul><ul><li>Subdued inflation. </li></ul><ul><li>Rising licensed construction areas. </li></ul><ul><li>The recovery of the US economy remains fragile. </li></ul><ul><li>Low export prices (first 6-month export value growth contracted by 1.8% yoy despite 6% yoy increase in June). </li></ul><ul><li>Contracting Japanese Economy. </li></ul><ul><li>Unsolved NPLs. </li></ul>
    21. 21. Macroeconomic Policy Management
    22. 22. Macroeconomic Policy Management in Short Term Macroeconomic Policy Management in Medium Term <ul><li>Accelerate Restructuring of NPLs </li></ul><ul><li>Closely Monitor Consumer Credit </li></ul><ul><li>Solve Low Export Price Problem </li></ul><ul><li>Prepare to Support the Operation of the Local Administrations </li></ul><ul><li>Moving toward High Performance Economy </li></ul>
    23. 23. <ul><li>National Destiny </li></ul><ul><li>Increase Thailand’s market share to 1.1% of total world exports in 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>8-10 global niches </li></ul><ul><ul><li>World’s top-10 tourist countries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Asia’s top-5 traders </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ASEAN’s No 1 attractive country to invest </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leader of Bio-Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>One of the few countries to maintain national heritage and cultural identity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Enhance productivity in production and services sectors </li></ul>Moving Towards High Performance Economy
    24. 24. Determination of Strategic Thrust Determination of Thailand’s Global Niche Thailand’s Competitive Strategy Public Sector Reform to Facilitate Business Sector
    25. 25. Level of Customization Level of Sophistication High Tech Low Tech Low Touch High Touch <ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Foods </li></ul><ul><li>Tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Auto industry </li></ul><ul><li>Fashion </li></ul>Example Tourism Foods Fashion Auto Software Asia Tourism Capital Kitchen of the World World Tropical Fashion Detroit of Asia World Graphic Design Center Strategy : Selective Global Niches Global Niche
    26. 26. Old Paradigm New paradigm Production & Services Strategy Agriculture Manufacture Services <ul><li>Intensive-farming </li></ul><ul><li>Supply-driven </li></ul><ul><li>Low Cost </li></ul><ul><li>Mass Production </li></ul><ul><li>Productive-farming </li></ul><ul><li>Market-driven </li></ul><ul><li>Value Added Creation </li></ul><ul><li>Product Differentiation </li></ul><ul><li>Demand-driven </li></ul><ul><li>Cost Leadership </li></ul><ul><li>Mass Production </li></ul><ul><li>Competing </li></ul><ul><li>Demand-driving </li></ul><ul><li>Product Differentiation </li></ul><ul><li>Customization / Market Niche </li></ul><ul><li>Co-opetition (Cluster Approach) </li></ul><ul><li>More for Less </li></ul><ul><li>Marketing </li></ul><ul><li>More for More </li></ul><ul><li>Market Positioning </li></ul>Strategic Thrust
    27. 27. Business Cost Reduction <ul><li>Create foreseeable environment </li></ul><ul><li>Relax rules and regulation & resolve business obstacles </li></ul><ul><li>Improve supply chain </li></ul><ul><li>Privatization </li></ul>Public Sector Reform Business Opportunities <ul><li>Reduce business risks </li></ul><ul><li>Increase critical mass </li></ul><ul><li>Fair competition </li></ul><ul><li>Support value added creation </li></ul><ul><li>Create public/ corporate good governance </li></ul>Business Capacity Enhancement <ul><li>Clear guideline of privatization </li></ul><ul><li>Support market responses </li></ul><ul><li>Support innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Total productivity improvement </li></ul>Strategy : Facilitation Role to Business Sector
    28. 28. Competitiveness <ul><li>Macroeconomic </li></ul><ul><li>Fiscal & Monetary Policies </li></ul><ul><li>Trade and Investment Policies </li></ul><ul><li>Foreign Policy </li></ul><ul><li>Fundamentals </li></ul><ul><li>Human Capital </li></ul><ul><li>Sciences & Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Management </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul>Agriculture Manufacture Services Public Sector Reform
    29. 29. Competitiveness : Four National Reforms High Performance Economy (HPE) Economic Reform Education Reform Bureaucracy Reform Corporate Reform <ul><li>Economy of Speed </li></ul><ul><li>Good Governance </li></ul><ul><li>(Public and Private) </li></ul><ul><li>Efficient Infrastructure (Hardware and Software ) </li></ul>HPE <ul><li>Sound Economic Management </li></ul><ul><li>High Quality of Social Capital </li></ul>
    30. 30. THANK YOU http://www.nesdb.go.th

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