World Transformer Markets 2002 to 2012

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  • World Transformer Markets 2002 to 2012

    1. 1. World Transformer Markets 2002 to 2012 Presented to Leonardo Energy With kind Permission of:- The International Copper Association Ltd 15 th May 2009
    2. 2. INTRODUCTION <ul><li>SPEAKER </li></ul><ul><li>Mr Steve Aubertin </li></ul><ul><li>Managing Director of </li></ul><ul><li>Goulden Reports </li></ul>
    3. 3. Goulden Reports <ul><li>Goulden Reports has been in existence since 1983 and has a history dating back to 1970. The company specialises in published and private market research in the global electrical industry and related sectors. The range of published reports has been in continuous production for over twenty years and during that time many single client projects have been successfully completed. </li></ul>
    4. 4. TRANSFORMER INDUSTRY BACKGROUND <ul><li>For a generation until the start of this century global transformer markets have been characterised as:- </li></ul><ul><li>Excess Production Capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Depressed (but stable) Prices </li></ul><ul><li>Static Value/Volume (US$/kVA) Ratios </li></ul><ul><li>Consistent (but low) Margins </li></ul><ul><li>Stable Material Prices </li></ul><ul><li>Capital Cost Driven Products </li></ul><ul><li>From 2002 demand has grown, production capacity has been rationalised, material prices have increased and margins have improved. </li></ul>
    5. 5. SURVEY BACKGROUND <ul><li>Against this background, in 2008 Goulden Reports were commissioned by the ICA to undertake a research project with the key aims of establishing on a region by region basis:- </li></ul><ul><li>The current and future market volume (MVA) demand for transformers </li></ul><ul><li>The current and future number of transformers </li></ul><ul><li>The current and future demand for copper in transformers </li></ul><ul><li>The current and future demand for Core steel in transformers </li></ul>
    6. 6. PROPOSED SURVEY METHODOLOGY <ul><li>The proposed methodology for the project was:- </li></ul><ul><li>Client Briefing </li></ul><ul><li>Desk and Internet Research Phase </li></ul><ul><li>Field Interview Phase </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Telephone Interviews </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Personal Interviews </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Analysis and Report Production </li></ul><ul><li>At the outset of the project the programme envisaged was 20 weeks from commissioning to completion. </li></ul>
    7. 7. REASONS FOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE RESEARCH PROGRAMME <ul><li>The telephone and personal interviews revealed a great deal of very conflicting data </li></ul><ul><li>No respondent could provide an overall view of a region or market segment to the level of detail required </li></ul><ul><li>A value based model did not produce sufficiently sensitive data to convert to market demand in volume kVA terms </li></ul><ul><li>Because key countries have many distribution organisations, no comprehensive data on distribution transformers exists </li></ul>
    8. 8. ACTUAL RESEARCH METHODOLOGY <ul><li>Client Briefing </li></ul><ul><li>Desk and Internet Research Phase </li></ul><ul><li>Field Interview Phase </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Telephone Interviews </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Personal Interviews </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Review and Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Email questionnaires </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Telephone Interviews </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Analysis and Report Production </li></ul><ul><li>In the event the project took 32 weeks from commissioning to completion. </li></ul>
    9. 9. MODIFIED RESEARCH <ul><li>The decision was taken to concentrate on reinforcing the MVA installed and market demand data by additional research covering utility organisations </li></ul><ul><li>Greater emphasis was placed on refining conversion data and key market ratios </li></ul><ul><li>Particular effort was placed on developing a bottom up dis-aggregated analysis of the distribution transformer sector </li></ul><ul><li>Similarly regional data was derived from individual country analysis </li></ul>
    10. 10. Market Overview 2002 to 2012 <ul><li>Global transformer demand was 1,172GVA in 2002 and is expected to reach 2,117GVA in 2012. </li></ul><ul><li>CAGR 6.09% </li></ul><ul><li>Copper demand generated was 632 million MT in 2002 and will have grown to 1,206 million MT by 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>CAGR 6.67% </li></ul><ul><li>Core Steel demand generated was 1.47 million MT in 2002 and will have grown to 2.56 million MT by 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>CAGR 5.71% </li></ul>
    11. 11. Global MVA Demand by Region 2002 to 2007 1,603,472 1,510,295 1,337,260 1,129,990 1,207,090 1,171,776 TOTAL 19,332 18,027 13,667 6,715 12,581 11,716 AUSTRALASIA 349,045 342,176 410,714 272,010 361,386 414,782 NORTH AMERICA 8,795 10,003 9,236 6,745 6,101 9,146 C AM & CARRIBEAN 55,268 51,438 43,552 40,179 40,069 33,191 SOUTH AMERICA 601,862 530,626 459,254 439,637 400,377 382,823 ASIA 133,624 130,570 97,136 72,817 67,035 77,812 INDIAN SUB CON 61,575 65,738 44,710 56,144 44,271 29,820 MIDDLE EAST 34,312 36,271 22,922 19,858 16,693 17,699 AFRICA 129,416 123,547 60,301 46,722 63,024 38,932 FSU 39,322 37,444 22,218 18,732 20,298 17,026 EASTERN EUROPE 170,920 164,456 153,552 150,433 175,256 138,829 WESTERN EUROPE 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 REGION
    12. 12. Global MVA Demand by Region 2008 to 2012 6.09% 5.71% 6.47% 2,117,023 2,117,943 2,013,471 1,828,052 1,672,394 TOTAL 5.29% 0.29% 10.54% 19,617 19,406 22,528 21,354 20,228 AUSTRALASIA -0.07% 3.37% -3.39% 412,021 404,260 385,278 371,597 357,886 NORTH AMERICA 2.68% 6.26% -0.78% 11,918 12,026 10,960 10,122 9,342 C AM & CARRIB 7.11% 3.60% 10.74% 65,972 67,299 68,280 63,393 58,765 SOUTH AMERICA 7.63% 5.82% 9.47% 798,693 841,823 800,210 716,080 627,769 ASIA 9.98% 8.57% 11.42% 201,537 186,572 188,008 154,208 139,180 INDIAN SUB CON 12.23% 8.94% 15.61% 94,501 91,374 80,916 73,682 66,977 MIDDLE EAST 11.31% 8.53% 14.16% 51,671 52,457 43,226 39,812 36,613 AFRICA 16.64% 6.99% 27.16% 181,413 170,882 163,051 147,196 137,337 FSU 11.62% 5.39% 18.22% 51,118 52,520 47,849 44,094 41,377 EASTERN EUROPE 5.11% 5.98% 4.25% 228,561 219,325 203,164 186,513 176,919 WESTERN EUROPE cagr 02 to 12 cagr 07 to12 cagr 02 to 07 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 REGION
    13. 13. Global Transformer Demand by Region number of units 2002 to 2007 5,508,795 5,109,021 4,968,982 4,712,628 4,409,804 4,379,224 TOTAL 26,080 16,568 19,761 17,203 13,081 9,447 AUSTRALASIA 1,328,762 1,327,684 1,256,895 1,199,253 1,104,698 1,175,832 NORTH AMERICA 37,322 55,516 37,684 23,283 25,096 19,976 C AM & CARRIBEAN 199,296 174,894 149,319 133,993 129,259 126,699 SOUTH AMERICA 2,589,423 2,243,680 2,203,201 2,121,715 2,065,444 1,992,449 ASIA 695,491 575,432 634,296 585,542 565,832 550,586 INDIAN SUB CON 92,312 125,223 129,095 106,324 79,786 67,914 MIDDLE EAST 143,771 195,671 181,110 181,073 105,537 117,074 AFRICA 140,929 147,650 129,978 116,028 88,895 88,122 FSU 67,784 64,075 53,595 49,193 46,468 46,039 EASTERN EUROPE 187,625 182,629 174,048 179,021 185,708 185,086 WESTERN EUROPE 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 REGION
    14. 14. Global Transformer Demand by Region number of units 2008 to 2012 3.79% 2.88% 4.70% 6,350,084 6,917,025 6,754,473 6,202,543 5,619,938 TOTAL 11.34% 1.17% 22.52% 27,645 29,830 29,553 27,953 26,341 AUSTRALASIA 2.19% 1.91% 2.48% 1,460,674 1,470,878 1,474,723 1,412,210 1,347,650 NORTH AMERICA 8.22% 3.35% 13.32% 44,009 48,732 47,383 43,239 39,320 C AM & CARRIBEAN 5.68% 2.01% 9.48% 220,150 251,745 251,129 230,626 210,726 SOUTH AMERICA 4.25% 3.13% 5.38% 3,020,851 3,491,872 3,362,342 3,012,074 2,601,109 ASIA 4.17% 3.57% 4.78% 828,662 821,951 793,085 764,393 737,063 INDIAN SUB CON 5.47% 4.61% 6.33% 115,652 127,140 125,380 112,446 100,287 MIDDLE EAST 4.01% 3.82% 4.19% 173,420 198,996 189,065 170,652 153,339 AFRICA 6.72% 3.69% 9.85% 168,917 172,947 166,022 153,700 144,213 FSU 4.76% 1.57% 8.04% 73,276 89,622 83,630 75,626 70,245 EASTERN EUROPE 1.60% 2.94% 0.27% 216,829 213,312 232,160 199,625 189,645 WESTERN EUROPE cagr 02 - 12 cagr 07 - 12 cagr 02 - 07 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 REGION
    15. 15. Global Copper Demand MT by Region 2002 to 2007 892,643 851,587 730,655 652,551 662,064 631,998 TOTAL 7,729 7,206 5,982 3,468 4,997 4,347 AUSTRALASIA 158,215 157,251 171,003 125,336 149,057 165,264 NORTH AMERICA 4,178 5,708 4,172 3,030 2,730 3,692 C AM & CARRIBEAN 25,910 24,337 20,034 18,162 17,559 14,975 SOUTH AMERICA 368,904 344,243 275,666 265,695 255,907 237,064 ASIA 93,019 79,045 73,951 59,861 56,231 58,708 INDIAN SUB CON 32,642 36,892 28,914 32,083 23,195 16,901 MIDDLE EAST 18,069 19,532 13,056 13,105 9,981 10,252 AFRICA 60,027 58,792 32,582 25,224 29,835 20,781 FSU 19,103 18,553 11,472 9,560 10,170 8,839 EASTERN EUROPE 104,847 100,028 93,824 97,027 102,403 91,177 WESTERN EUROPE 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 REGION
    16. 16. Global Copper Demand MT by Region 2008 to 2012 6.67% 6.20% 7.15% 1,205,695 1,231,091 1,173,108 1,052,813 936,789 TOTAL 6.69% 1.45% 12.20% 8,308 8,315 9,310 8,749 8,189 AUSTRALASIA 1.80% 4.54% -0.87% 197,581 192,409 182,840 173,452 163,526 NORTH AMERICA 4.73% 7.01% 2.50% 5,862 5,943 5,411 5,052 4,529 C AM & CARRIB 8.03% 4.59% 11.59% 32,430 33,581 33,479 30,654 27,788 SOUTH AMERICA 7.69% 6.16% 9.25% 497,411 544,800 518,567 458,990 387,016 ASIA 8.64% 7.66% 9.64% 134,522 125,945 123,204 107,508 98,952 INDIAN SUB CON 11.41% 8.81% 14.07% 49,778 49,197 44,356 39,760 35,500 MIDDLE EAST 9.96% 7.96% 12.00% 26,497 27,499 23,302 21,286 19,245 AFRICA 15.50% 7.90% 23.63% 87,795 82,774 78,130 70,154 64,448 FSU 11.19% 5.97% 16.67% 25,524 27,116 24,471 22,129 20,416 EASTERN EUROPE 4.38% 5.95% 2.83% 139,986 133,514 130,040 115,079 107,180 WESTERN EUROPE cagr 02 to 12 cagr 07 to 12 Cagr 02 to 07 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 REGION
    17. 17. Global Core Steel Demand MT by Region 2002 to 2007 1,993,036 1,856,918 1,705,480 1,526,487 1,511,003 1,467,587 TOTAL 16,552 14,564 13,690 9,274 10,868 9,109 AUSTRALASIA 359,721 354,416 386,527 296,849 338,664 377,253 NORTH AMERICA 13,185 16,964 14,022 9,659 8,667 10,346 C AM & CARRIBEAN 71,558 65,628 55,393 49,958 48,464 43,200 SOUTH AMERICA 890,309 767,580 710,354 678,389 638,145 609,040 ASIA 165,266 148,631 132,700 110,420 103,698 107,835 INDIAN SUB CON 69,835 85,119 72,000 69,561 51,925 39,179 MIDDLE EAST 49,476 56,800 43,076 40,944 29,850 31,462 AFRICA 118,249 115,742 70,384 57,420 61,466 45,464 FSU 44,348 42,291 29,175 25,416 25,419 23,290 EASTERN EUROPE 194,536 189,184 178,158 178,598 193,837 171,408 WESTERN EUROPE 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 REGION
    18. 18. Global Core Steel Demand MT by Region 2008 to 2012 5.71% 5.11% 6.31% 2,557,268 2,666,418 2,550,978 2,295,687 2,067,534 TOTAL 6.72% 1.07% 12.69% 17,454 17,956 19,426 18,298 17,207 AUSTRALASIA 1.01% 3.00% -0.95% 416,985 413,032 401,106 384,754 368,179 NORTH AMERICA 5.39% 5.81% 4.97% 17,490 18,388 17,165 15,564 14,086 C AM & CARRIB 7.08% 3.65% 10.62% 85,611 91,676 91,395 83,715 76,451 SOUTH AMERICA 6.56% 5.24% 7.89% 1,149,474 1,273,018 1,205,814 1,064,042 915,769 ASIA 8.00% 7.10% 8.91% 232,874 220,592 216,357 189,462 175,042 INDIAN SUB CON 10.07% 7.93% 12.25% 102,262 103,394 95,304 85,510 76,485 MIDDLE EAST 8.10% 6.74% 9.48% 68,548 74,053 65,279 59,030 53,219 AFRICA 13.61% 6.61% 21.07% 162,855 156,367 148,595 134,369 124,864 FSU 8.97% 4.40% 13.75% 55,002 60,345 55,503 50,309 46,690 E EUROPE 3.79% 5.04% 2.56% 248,714 237,596 235,035 210,633 199,542 W EUROPE cagr 02 to 12 Cagr 07 to 12 Cagr 02 to 07 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 REGION
    19. 19. Overall Copper Density kg/kVA by Region 2002 to 2007 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.58 0.55 0.54 TOTAL 0.40 0.40 0.44 0.52 0.40 0.37 AUSTRALASIA 0.45 0.46 0.42 0.46 0.41 0.40 NORTH AMERICA 0.48 0.57 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.40 C AM & CARRIBEAN 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.45 SOUTH AMERICA 0.61 0.65 0.60 0.60 0.64 0.62 ASIA 0.70 0.61 0.76 0.82 0.84 0.75 INDIAN SUB CON 0.53 0.56 0.65 0.57 0.52 0.57 MIDDLE EAST 0.53 0.54 0.57 0.66 0.60 0.58 AFRICA 0.46 0.48 0.54 0.54 0.47 0.53 FSU 0.49 0.50 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.52 EASTERN EUROPE 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.64 0.58 0.66 WESTERN EUROPE 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 REGION
    20. 20. Overall Copper Density kg/kVA by Region 2008 to 2012 0.55% 0.46% 0.63% 0.57 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.56 TOTAL 1.33% 1.16% 1.51% 0.42 0.43 0.41 0.41 0.40 AUSTRALASIA 1.87% 1.13% 2.61% 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.46 NORTH AMERICA 2.00% 0.70% 3.31% 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.48 C AM & CARRIBEAN 0.86% 0.95% 0.77% 0.49 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47 SOUTH AMERICA 0.06% 0.32% -0.20% 0.62 0.65 0.65 0.64 0.62 ASIA -1.22% -0.84% -1.60% 0.67 0.68 0.66 0.70 0.71 INDIAN SUB CON -0.73% -0.13% -1.33% 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.54 0.53 MIDDLE EAST -1.21% -0.53% -1.89% 0.51 0.52 0.54 0.53 0.53 AFRICA -0.97% 0.85% -2.77% 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.47 FSU -0.39% 0.55% -1.32% 0.50 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.49 EASTERN EUROPE -0.70% -0.03% -1.36% 0.61 0.61 0.64 0.62 0.61 WESTERN EUROPE Cagr 02 to 12 Cagr 07 to 12 Cagr 002 to 07 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 REGION
    21. 21. MVA & Copper Demand 2002 to 2012
    22. 22. Global Market Concentration <ul><li>Total Global Demand in 2007 = 1,604GVA </li></ul><ul><li>Top 20 Countries account for 82% of Global Demand </li></ul><ul><li>Top 10 Countries account for 71% of Global Demand </li></ul><ul><li>Top 5 Countries account for 63% of Global Demand </li></ul><ul><li>Top 10 Countries In descending order of size:- </li></ul><ul><li>China, United States, India, Japan, Russia, Canada, Germany, South Korea, Brazil, United Kingdom, </li></ul>
    23. 23. Global Market Concentration Top Ten Markets 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Total 29.69% 28.69% 30.05% 24.44% 29.53% 26.58% 23.70% Rest of World 1.28% 1.46% 1.56% 1.47% 2.18% 1.40% 1.74% United Kingdom 1.29% 1.49% 1.40% 1.77% 1.89% 2.32% 1.40% Brazil 2.04% 1.66% 1.44% 1.07% 1.34% 1.19% 1.18% Korea, South 2.14% 1.91% 1.78% 2.54% 1.77% 2.97% 2.28% Germany 1.80% 2.04% 2.11% 1.50% 2.58% 2.08% 1.71% Canada 5.41% 4.99% 5.04% 3.27% 2.93% 4.23% 2.43% Russia 4.95% 5.41% 5.73% 5.63% 5.88% 5.99% 5.45% Japan 8.69% 7.65% 7.96% 6.68% 5.65% 4.88% 6.29% India 16.51% 18.47% 19.28% 27.75% 19.26% 26.42% 32.02% United States 26.20% 26.22% 23.66% 23.87% 26.99% 21.93% 21.82% China 2012 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 Country
    24. 24. Global Trade in Transformers Overview <ul><li>Total World Market for Transformers in 2006 was estimated at $27,154 million. </li></ul><ul><li>Total Exports recorded in 2006 were worth $6,043 million. </li></ul><ul><li>22% of demand was satisfied by imports. </li></ul><ul><li>78% of demand was satisfied by domestic production. </li></ul><ul><li>Trade compared with market size has decreased from nearly 30% in the mid 1990’s to current levels of 20% to 22%. </li></ul>
    25. 25. Total Transformer Export Trends 1997 to 2006
    26. 26. Power Transformer Export Trends 1997 to 2006
    27. 27. Distribution Transformer Export Trends 1997 to 2006
    28. 28. Total Transformer Export Global Shares by Region 1997 to 2006
    29. 29. Power Transformer Export Global Shares by Region 1997 to 2006
    30. 30. Distribution Transformer Export Global Shares by Region 1997 to 2006
    31. 31. Global Transformer Trade Patterns 1997 to 2006 <ul><li>The majority of the $6.0 billion export trade in transformers is within local regions. </li></ul><ul><li>Highest levels are in excess of 90% (Power Transformers in North America) </li></ul><ul><li>Lowest levels less than 5% (Power Transformers in Indian Sub Con) </li></ul><ul><li>Generally levels of trade with regions in Distribution transformers is higher than for Power Transformers. </li></ul>
    32. 32. Trade Within Region All Transformers 1997 to 2006 83.70% 82.21% 81.49% 78.37% 77.83% 82.48% 82.90% 77.25% 70.41% 66.29% North America (inc Mex) 57.92% 53.90% 46.97% 56.41% 42.06% 52.80% 47.91% 89.22% 88.64% 87.20% South & Central America 39.01% 47.25% 49.12% 55.71% 35.26% 49.54% 48.94% 50.31% 67.61% 77.57% Asia & Australasia 7.71% 5.84% 5.99% 21.08% 14.94% 12.77% 20.44% 13.66% 10.40% 15.70% Indian Sub Con 82.96% 45.79% 33.02% 36.03% 19.33% 20.75% 17.94% 9.12% 16.59% 8.21% Middle East 14.08% 21.54% 52.30% 33.23% 34.56% 23.70% 29.58% 56.99% 72.40% 91.73% Africa 47.29% 48.66% 44.72% 44.89% 48.77% 45.32% 40.58% 31.12% 41.69% 26.35% Eastern Europe & FSU 42.76% 40.42% 43.07% 37.00% 35.17% 35.35% 32.99% 32.78% 35.64% 54.53% Western Europe 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 Total Transformers
    33. 33. Trade Within Region Power Transformers 1997 to 2006 95.11% 92.49% 93.35% 90.91% 95.00% 96.85% 96.96% 94.19% 89.07% 80.55% North America (Inc Mexico) 50.08% 43.45% 36.55% 42.05% 29.35% 36.18% 33.58% 88.95% 91.53% 85.53% South & Central America 27.66% 34.37% 42.85% 45.64% 19.83% 48.25% 40.00% 44.36% 65.83% 77.80% Asia & Australasia 0.91% 0.83% 2.30% 3.31% 2.08% 6.93% 24.47% 3.80% 3.97% 10.80% Indian Sub Con 84.50% 42.91% 36.37% 32.68% 23.75% 19.89% 22.45% 3.93% 16.62% 2.57% Middle East 4.46% 7.03% 35.78% 10.12% 11.99% 4.24% 17.87% 55.29% 87.34% 77.60% Africa 30.30% 28.55% 12.60% 28.32% 21.64% 29.60% 32.03% 15.63% 31.65% 19.24% Eastern Europe & FSU 27.13% 26.11% 30.21% 23.80% 16.87% 15.14% 14.27% 13.97% 24.11% 28.03% Western Europe 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 Power Transformers
    34. 34. Trade Within Region Distribution Transformers 1997 to 2006 79.02% 77.59% 75.86% 72.73% 68.58% 74.15% 77.52% 73.15% 67.12% 64.65% North America (inc Mex) 69.35% 70.90% 63.84% 73.69% 75.95% 88.47% 88.93% 89.86% 83.33% 92.04% South & Central America 48.80% 60.86% 54.85% 64.31% 51.53% 50.88% 59.64% 56.45% 70.54% 77.21% Asia & Australasia 17.06% 13.20% 11.35% 26.72% 23.04% 17.53% 18.04% 21.95% 25.10% 20.50% Indian Sub Con 81.03% 49.36% 27.45% 39.82% 14.78% 21.82% 13.89% 13.75% 16.56% 19.21% Middle East 73.37% 79.67% 81.01% 68.50% 75.90% 78.28% 63.51% 58.42% 72.07% 93.04% Africa 55.36% 59.11% 60.26% 58.43% 61.41% 53.43% 45.52% 42.97% 47.90% 33.34% Eastern Europe & FSU 52.48% 52.29% 52.10% 49.26% 50.64% 51.78% 46.93% 45.83% 43.65% 68.60% Western Europe 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 Distribution Transformers
    35. 35. Trade Within Region All Transformers 1997 to 2006
    36. 36. Trade Within Region Power Transformers 1997 to 2006
    37. 37. Trade Within Region Distribution Transformers 1997 to 2006
    38. 38. Western Europe Trade Within Region 1997 to 2006
    39. 39. Eastern Europe & FSU Trade Within Region 1997 to 2006
    40. 40. Africa Trade Within Region 1997 to 2006
    41. 41. Middle East Trade Within Region 1997 to 2006
    42. 42. Indian Sub-Continent Trade Within Region 1997 to 2006
    43. 43. Asia & Australasia Trade Within Region 1997 to 2006
    44. 44. South & Central America Trade Within Region 1997 to 2006
    45. 45. North America (Incl. Mexico) Trade Within Region 1997 to 2006
    46. 46. Distribution Transformer Demand 2002 to 2012 <ul><li>Global Distribution Transformer demand will increase from 580GVA in 2002 to 941GVA in 2012. A cagr of 4.96% </li></ul><ul><li>The attendant demand for copper will increase from 444,000 MT to 760,000 MT over the same timeframe. A cagr of 5.53% </li></ul><ul><li>The percentage copper will increase from 74% to 80.46% over the period. </li></ul><ul><li>Globally oil filled transformers will account for 93% of demand throughout the period. </li></ul><ul><li>Utility Companies overall account for nearly 70% of purchases; with a regional variation of between 60% and 77%. </li></ul>
    47. 47. Distribution transformer Demand in MVA 2002 to 2012 4.96 4.35 5.57 941,104 760,594 700,848 673,068 635,756 594,541 580,001 TOTAL 7.66 1.87 13.78 4,759 4,338 3,754 4,794 4,133 3,182 2,275 AUSTRALASIA 2.83 2.45 3.22 153,510 136,039 135,117 126,898 120,717 110,249 116,113 NORTH AMERICA 8.92 5.61 12.34 5,187 3,948 5,312 4,069 2,698 2,464 2,206 C AM & CARRIBEAN 7.25 3.91 10.71 26,322 21,733 19,684 16,587 14,319 13,514 13,068 SOUTH AMERICA 5.65 4.75 6.56 467,768 370,877 317,021 308,271 293,850 282,763 269,906 ASIA 5.91 5.37 6.46 80,205 61,743 50,011 54,595 49,788 47,403 45,148 INDIAN SUB CON 7.80 6.58 9.03 29,252 21,270 28,391 28,355 22,886 16,676 13,804 MIDDLE EAST 5.59 4.91 6.28 20,131 15,844 18,769 16,080 16,346 11,466 11,686 AFRICA 8.08 5.66 10.55 37,203 28,252 28,632 25,469 22,431 17,380 17,107 FSU 5.93 2.96 9.00 15,551 13,444 12,850 10,452 9,431 8,793 8,739 EASTERN EUROPE 2.39 4.02 0.78 101,215 83,107 81,307 77,497 79,157 80,651 79,950 W. EUROPE Cagr 02 to 12 Cagr 07 to 12 Cagr 02 to 07 2012 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 REGION
    48. 48. Distribution transformer Demand Number of Units 2002 to 2012 3.79% 2.89% 4.70% 6,334,924 5,494,096 5,094,015 4,956,851 4,703,019 4,397,977 4,366,582 TOTAL 11.48% 1.23% 22.76% 27,436 25,810 16,296 19,592 17,146 12,899 9,258 AUSTRALASIA 2.22% 1.91% 2.52% 1,457,674 1,325,879 1,324,793 1,252,657 1,197,012 1,100,760 1,170,855 NORTH AMERICA 8.62% 3.37% 14.13% 43,599 36,943 55,138 37,208 22,899 24,802 19,074 C AM & CARRIBEAN 5.69% 2.02% 9.49% 219,518 198,621 174,223 148,827 133,516 128,755 126,229 SOUTH AMERICA 4.25% 3.13% 5.38% 3,017,145 2,585,675 2,239,937 2,200,485 2,118,828 2,063,181 1,989,660 ASIA 4.17% 3.57% 4.78% 827,227 694,025 573,633 633,148 584,871 564,963 549,617 INDIAN SUB CON 5.43% 4.64% 6.23% 114,424 91,220 124,138 128,582 105,590 79,046 67,444 MIDDLE EAST 3.98% 3.82% 4.15% 172,597 143,122 195,025 180,800 180,918 105,209 116,801 AFRICA 6.68% 3.74% 9.70% 167,552 139,479 146,186 129,484 115,647 88,336 87,780 FSU 4.71% 1.57% 7.95% 72,674 67,224 63,517 53,288 48,975 46,145 45,848 EASTERN EUROPE 1.57% 2.94% 0.23% 215,079 186,098 181,128 172,780 177,616 183,880 184,014 WESTERN EUROPE cagr 2 to 12 cagr 7 to 12 cagr 2 to 7 2012 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 REGION
    49. 49. Distribution Transformer Copper Demand MT 2002 to 2012 5.53 5.02 6.04 759,707 594,806 570,230 507,950 486,106 463,381 443,678 TOTAL 7.44 1.71 13.49 3,097 2,846 2,628 3,184 2,665 2,127 1,511 AUSTRALASIA 3.56 3.76 3.36 106,443 88,508 90,559 81,124 77,650 71,949 75,025 NORTH AMERICA 9.91 6.26 13.68 3,262 2,408 3,996 2,300 1,576 1,452 1,268 C AM & CARRIB 8.10 4.75 11.55 16,819 13,334 12,524 10,117 8,696 8,042 7,720 SOUTH AMERICA 6.38 5.31 7.47 369,359 285,180 267,932 222,274 214,490 215,924 198,953 ASIA 6.20 5.46 6.94 86,182 66,064 49,942 58,570 51,471 49,148 47,235 INDIAN SUB CON 7.69 6.21 9.19 23,684 17,527 23,073 22,943 20,108 13,394 11,295 MIDDLE EAST 5.68 4.73 6.65 14,038 11,143 13,028 10,527 11,827 8,079 8,077 AFRICA 8.64 6.39 10.95 30,111 22,090 23,674 19,868 16,479 13,631 13,142 FSU 6.64 3.75 9.62 11,297 9,398 9,453 7,178 6,212 6,086 5,938 EASTERN EUROPE 2.64 4.57 0.75 95,415 76,308 73,421 69,867 74,932 73,549 73,513 WESTERN EUROPE Cagr 02 to 12 Cagr 07 to 12 Cagr 02 to 07 2012 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 REGION
    50. 50. Distribution Transformer Copper Percentage 2002 to 2012 80.46% 75.38% 75.05% 75.81% 73.95% 73.64% 74.75% 74.00% TOTAL 69.33% 65.08% 63.52% 67.76% 62.03% 57.92% 62.47% 60.94% AUSTRALASIA 69.19% 65.22% 65.33% 65.88% 64.45% 65.70% 65.43% 65.25% NORTH AMERICA 67.14% 62.89% 61.92% 69.79% 57.89% 60.22% 60.17% 58.77% C AM & CARRIBEAN 64.88% 58.81% 59.01% 59.85% 58.44% 59.60% 58.08% 58.09% SOUTH AMERICA 84.30% 79.69% 78.91% 81.84% 77.26% 75.85% 78.33% 77.03% ASIA 90.32% 86.09% 86.56% 82.56% 89.02% 87.97% 86.56% 87.79% INDIAN SUB CON 82.58% 76.31% 76.24% 74.97% 75.38% 75.81% 75.75% 75.59% MIDDLE EAST 77.69% 71.41% 71.75% 71.81% 69.13% 72.00% 71.04% 70.66% AFRICA 72.68% 68.03% 67.08% 69.73% 66.74% 63.66% 66.46% 65.38% FSU 76.71% 69.47% 69.07% 70.77% 67.68% 67.23% 67.88% 67.17% EASTERN EUROPE 80.63% 74.19% 74.62% 73.48% 74.31% 75.66% 74.53% 74.89% WESTERN EUROPE 2012 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
    51. 51. Percentage of Distribution Transformers Oil Filled 2002 2012 93.68% 93.62% 93.44% 93.58% 93.62% 93.66% 93.65% TOTAL 92.97% 92.92% 92.92% 93.08% 93.35% 93.65% 93.79% AUSTRALASIA 88.95% 88.96% 89.19% 89.44% 89.68% 89.89% 90.10% NORTH AMERICA 94.64% 94.71% 94.86% 94.81% 94.87% 94.98% 95.41% C AM & CARRIBEAN 91.00% 90.99% 91.17% 91.04% 91.05% 90.87% 90.88% SOUTH AMERICA 95.61% 95.56% 95.38% 95.39% 95.42% 95.44% 95.43% ASIA 98.00% 98.00% 98.00% 97.99% 98.00% 98.00% 98.00% INDIAN SUB CON 95.01% 95.01% 95.02% 95.02% 95.11% 95.21% 95.42% MIDDLE EAST 95.61% 95.56% 95.71% 95.60% 95.66% 95.59% 95.86% AFRICA 93.36% 93.38% 93.45% 93.38% 93.56% 93.78% 94.24% FSU 91.25% 92.50% 92.75% 93.00% 93.07% 93.12% 93.25% EASTERN EUROPE 88.96% 89.50% 89.64% 89.71% 89.82% 89.91% 90.04% WESTERN EUROPE 2012 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 REGION
    52. 52. Percentage of Distribution Transformers Owned by Utility Companies 2002 to 2012 69.82% 69.54% 69.06% 69.18% 69.03% 68.94% 68.74% TOTAL 63.50% 63.01% 60.66% 60.31% 60.36% 60.31% 60.13% AUSTRALASIA 60.84% 60.84% 60.81% 60.81% 60.79% 60.66% 60.59% NORTH AMERICA 71.57% 71.85% 73.37% 72.78% 72.44% 71.19% 71.90% C AM & CARRIBEAN 73.47% 73.48% 73.34% 73.23% 73.40% 73.25% 73.21% SOUTH AMERICA 72.30% 72.26% 71.90% 71.94% 71.90% 71.93% 71.85% ASIA 77.47% 77.47% 77.46% 77.47% 77.47% 77.47% 77.46% INDIAN SUB CON 69.00% 69.22% 68.68% 69.68% 69.26% 69.58% 70.13% MIDDLE EAST 75.61% 75.52% 75.83% 75.84% 75.77% 75.19% 75.23% AFRICA 74.81% 74.82% 74.70% 74.72% 74.72% 74.77% 74.80% FSU 70.85% 70.82% 70.81% 71.10% 70.95% 70.68% 70.63% EASTERN EUROPE 62.27% 61.93% 61.90% 61.93% 61.87% 61.84% 61.88% WESTERN EUROPE 2012 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 REGION
    53. 53. Manufacturers Market Shares 2006 100.0% Total 19.3% Others 1.6% Daihen 1.6% Kuhlman 1.7% Cooper 1.9% Schneider 2.4% Crompton-Pauwels 2.7% Nissin 3.0% Waukesha 3.1% Howard 3.9% Hitachi 4.2% Toshiba 5.0% GE 5.8% Mitsubishi 8.8% Alstom 10.1% Siemens 15.6% ABB Market Share Company
    54. 54. Manufacturers Estimated Sales by Region 2006 – US$’000 26,118.8 5,860.3 1,076.8 11,357.6 1,046.4 749.2 1,911.1 4,117.4 Total 7,462.2 516.9 298.6 5,172.2 291.7 279.2 516.1 387.5 Others 791.0 735.7 39.6 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Waukesha 1,088.0 115.2 8.4 909.0 32.2 1.0 8.4 13.7 Toshiba 2,645.9 510.3 203.2 252.6 192.0 102.2 347.8 1,037.6 Siemens 490.4 111.8 19.5 74.6 50.2 97.6 36.9 99.8 Schneider 706.6 77.9 0.0 585.6 43.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nissin 1,520.2 90.5 20.1 1,316.3 42.0 19.3 14.1 18.0 Mitsubishi 419.2 398.3 16.8 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Kuhlman 804.2 764.0 16.1 24.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Howard 1,023.1 46.8 4.9 874.7 52.7 11.8 4.8 27.3 Hitachi 1,301.8 915.6 58.3 203.5 32.0 19.9 48.6 23.9 GE 418.8 4.2 0.0 402.1 8.7 0.0 0.0 3.8 Daihen 639.1 120.8 13.6 94.9 37.3 26.6 98.5 247.4 Crompton-Pauwels 431.3 368.6 25.9 8.3 11.2 0.0 6.9 10.3 Cooper 2,309.8 242.1 105.9 399.0 106.2 105.6 294.3 1,056.7 Alstom 4,067.1 841.7 245.8 1,020.6 147.1 85.8 534.7 1,191.4 ABB Total North America S & C America & Carrib Asia- Pacific Middle East Africa E Europe & FSU Western Europe Company
    55. 55. Manufacturers Estimated Sales by Region 2006 – MVA 1,510,295 342,176 61,441 679,223 65,738 36,271 160,991 164,456 Total 431,497 30,180 17,036 309,317 18,322 13,520 43,477 15,479 Others 45,742 42,955 2,257 946 0 0 0 0 Waukesha 62,911 6,725 481 54,359 2,025 49 711 547 Toshiba 152,996 29,798 11,597 15,109 12,062 4,950 29,297 41,445 Siemens 28,357 6,528 1,115 4,462 3,151 4,726 3,109 3,984 Schneider 40,858 4,548 0 35,022 2,706 0 0 0 Nissin 87,903 5,282 1,147 78,716 2,637 936 1,186 718 Mitsubishi 24,242 23,255 957 251 0 0 0 0 Kuhlman 46,503 44,609 918 1,443 0 0 0 0 Howard 59,158 2,731 281 52,312 3,311 572 404 1,091 Hitachi 75,278 53,459 3,326 12,169 2,013 966 4,093 956 GE 24,218 248 0 24,045 548 0 0 151 Daihen 36,957 7,054 773 5,674 2,346 1,289 8,294 9,883 Crompton-Pauwels 24,937 21,521 1,480 499 705 0 581 410 Cooper 133,563 14,137 6,044 23,863 6,671 5,111 24,794 42,205 Alstom 235,176 49,146 14,028 61,036 9,239 4,152 45,044 47,586 ABB Total North America S & C America & Carib Asia Pacific Middle East Africa Eastern Europe & FSU Western Europe Company
    56. 56. Global Efficiency Requirements <ul><li>USA has enacted the Energy Policy Act 2005 with Energy Star ratings. Mandatory for Distribution Transformers from 2010 as does China (but to lower requirements). </li></ul><ul><li>India will have a legal requirement also by 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>Japan has a voluntary code applying to Transformers since 2002 – “Top Runner” </li></ul><ul><li>Mexico has a legal standard; as does Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Iran, Indonesia and Israel. </li></ul><ul><li>Several other S American countries are at various stages of implementation including Argentina, Ecuador and Peru. </li></ul><ul><li>Europe are at a less advanced stage with only voluntary efficiency requirements set by purchasers </li></ul>
    57. 57. Conclusions on Efficiency Requirements       MEPS introduced in Australia as mandatory requirements in 2003; ditto New Zealand   AUSTRALASIA In USA Energy Star mandatory from 2010           MEPS in Canada from 2001 NORTH AMERICA                 Mexico introduced MEPS in 1999 C AM & CARRIBEAN   Argentina, Ecuador and Peru considering     Informal requirements between vendor and user SOUTH AMERICA   China mandatory           Japan Top Runner progrmamme 2002 ASIA       Mandatory Non Mandatory requirements only in India       INDIAN SUB CON           Some moves generally; in Israel and Iran mandatory     MIDDLE EAST       Informal requirements between vendor and user         AFRICA             Informal requirements between vendor and user   FSU               Informal requirements between vendor and user EASTERN EUROPE   Voluntary only. Discussions may result in legal requirement circa 2012             WESTERN EUROPE 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
    58. 58. CONCLUSIONS <ul><li>Global transformer demand was 1,172GVA in 2002 and is expected to reach 2,117GVA in 2012. A cagr of 6.09% </li></ul><ul><li>Global Distribution Transformer demand will increase from 580GVA in 2002 to 941GVA in 2012. A cagr of 4.96% </li></ul><ul><li>Global copper demand generated was 632 million MT in 2002 and will have grown to 1,206 million MT by 2012. A cagr of 6.67% </li></ul><ul><li>Global Distribution Transformer demand for copper will increase from 444,000 MT to 760,000 MT over the same timeframe. A cagr of 5.53% </li></ul>
    59. 59. CONCLUSIONS <ul><li>Global Core Steel demand generated was 1.47 million MT in 2002 and will have grown to 2.56 million MT by 2012. A cagr of 5.71% </li></ul><ul><li>Distribution Transformer Core Steel demand generated was 1.10 million MT in 2002 and will have grown to 1.81 million MT by 2012. A cagr of 5.11% </li></ul><ul><li>Globally oil filled distribution transformers will account for 93% of demand throughout the period. </li></ul><ul><li>Utility Companies overall account for nearly 70% of distribution transformer purchases; with a regional variation of between 60% and 77%. </li></ul>
    60. 60. END OF PRESENTATION <ul><li>Thank you for your attention </li></ul>

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