Tziralis & Ipeirotis at 3rd Prediction Markets Workshop

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A research work by George Tziralis & Panos Ipeirotis.
Detecting Important Events
using Prediction Markets, Text
Mining, and Volatility Modeling.
Presented on July 9th in the 3rd Prediction Markets workshop, Kellog's School of Management, Northwestern University, Chicago

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Tziralis & Ipeirotis at 3rd Prediction Markets Workshop

  1. 1. Detecting Important Events using Prediction Markets, Text Mining, and Volatility Modeling George Tziralis Panos Ipeirotis
  2. 2. markets and efficiency • strong: prices reflect all information, public and private • semi-strong: prices reflect all publicly available information • weak: past prices cannot be used for market prediction
  3. 3. prediction markets? • Perhaps, the relationship between price and information is no more clear than in prediction markets (Pennock et al. 2002) • let’s start from the weak form of efficiency • is it possible to predict future prices using only past ones?
  4. 4. playground • InTrade • political contracts • US nominee elections 08 • 800 - 1000 time series instances for each contract

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