20130607 arecs web_forecast_video_summer_sun

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20130607 arecs web_forecast_video_summer_sun

  1. 1. Climate Forecasting UnitSUMMERSeasonal Forecasts forGlobal Solar PV EnergyMelanie Davis, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Fabian Lienert
  2. 2. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S1.2.1: Summer solar GHI availability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)m/sStage A: Solar GHI (Global Horizontal Irradiance) Resource AssessmentSolar PV energy potential: Where is it the sunniest?Dark red regions of this map shows where global solar GHI is highest in summer, and lighter yellow regionswhere it is lowest.N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.* Reanalysis information comes from a objective combination of observations and a numerical models that simulate one or more aspects of the Earth system, togenerate a synthesised estimate of the state of the climate system and how it changes over time.SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)
  3. 3. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S1.2.2: Summer solar GHI inter-annual variability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)m/sStage A: Solar GHI Resource AssessmentSolar PV energy volatility: Where does solar radiation vary the greatest?The darker red regions of this map shows where global solar GHI varies the most from one year to the next insummer, and lighter yellow regions where it varies the least.N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)
  4. 4. Climate Forecasting UnitEuropeSummer solar GHI availability Summer solar GHI inter-annual variabilitym/sAreas ofinterest:N.Continent/C-N.Chile-ArgentinaborderCentralContinentS.W.Continent/C-C.E.Continent/W-N.W.ContinentPapua NewGuineaS.America Africa Asia AustraliaN.C.America/S.W.CanadaN.AmericaUK/Norway/Sweden/S.Finland/N.MainlandEuropeStage A: Solar GHI Resource AssessmentWhere is solar PV energy resource potential and variability highest?By comparing both the summer global solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability, it can be seen thatthere are several key areas (listed above) where solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable.These regions are most vulnerable to solar GHI variability over climate timescales, and are therefore ofgreatest interest for seasonal forecasting in summer.SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)
  5. 5. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S2.2.1: Summer solar GHI ensemble mean correlation(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)timeSolarGHIforecast+ 1.0obs. forecast- 1.0forecastexample 1forecast- 1.0example 2example 3Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment1Stvalidation of the climate forecast system:Can the forecast mean predict thevariability of the solar GHI observations?The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global solar GHI variability in summer 1 month ahead, ispartially shown in this map. Skill is assessed by comparing the mean of a summer solar GHI forecast, madeevery year since 1981, to the reanalysis “observations” over the same period. If they follow the same variabilityover time, the skill is positive. This is the case even if their magnitudes are different (see example 1 and 2).PerfectForecastSame asClimatologyWorsethanClima-tologySUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)
  6. 6. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S2.2.1: Summer solar GHI ensemble mean correlation(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment1Stvalidation of the climate forecast system:Can the forecast mean predict thevariability of the solar GHI observations?Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill insummer seasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there isno available forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a randomprediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past “observations”.SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)PerfectForecastSame asClimatologyWorsethanClima-tology
  7. 7. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S2.2.2: Summer solar GHI CR probability skill score(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)Can the forecast distribution predict themagnitude and the variability of thesolar GHI observations?timeSolarGHIforecast+ 1.0obs. forecast- 1.0forecastexample 1forecast- 1.0example 2example 3Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment1Stvalidation of the climate forecast system:The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global solar GHI variability in summer 1 month ahead, is fullyshown in this map. Here, skill is assessed by comparing the full distribution (not just the mean value as in theprevious map) of a summer solar GHI forecast, made every year since 1981, to the “observations” over thesame period. If they follow the same variability and magnitude over time, the skill is positive (example 2).PerfectForecastSame asClimatologyWorsethanClima-tologySUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)
  8. 8. Climate Forecasting UnitFig. S2.2.2: Summer solar GHI CR probability skill score(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)Can the forecast distribution predict themagnitude and the variability of thesolar GHI observations?Stage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment1Stvalidation of the climate forecast system:Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill insummer seasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there isno available forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a randomprediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past “observations”.PerfectForecastSame asClimatologyWorsethanClima-tologySUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)
  9. 9. Climate Forecasting UnitEuropeAreas ofinterest:N.Brasil?/E.Brasil/N.Chile/N.ArgentinaC-C.E.Indone-sia/W.China/UAE/S.E.SaudiArabiaC.W.Australia/Pacific IslesS.America AfricaAsiaAustraliaS.E.Canada/CaribbeanIslesN.AmericaSpain/Portugal/Medite-rranean/S.E.Europe/W.Great Britain/S.Norway/S.Sweden/N.Finland?Summer solar GHI magnitude and variabilityforecast skillSummer solar GHI variability forecast skillSolar GHI variabilityforecast skill onlyBoth solar GHI variability and magnitude forecast skillS-S.Africa/N.Mozambi-que/EthiopiaStage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill Assessment Where is solar GHI forecast skill highest?By comparing both the summer global solar GHI forecast skill assessments, it can be seen that there areseveral key areas (listed above) where solar GHI forecasts are skilful in both its variability and magnitude.These regions show the greatest potential for the use of operational summer wind forecasts, and are thereforeof greatest interest to seasonal solar GHI forecasting in summer.SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)
  10. 10. Climate Forecasting UnitStage B: Solar GHI Forecast Skill AssessmentMagnitude + variability forecast skillVariability forecast skillm/sm/sm/sSPRING Wind ForecastsThese four maps compare the seasonal summer solar GHI global forecast skill maps (bottom) alongside thesummer global solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability map (top). It can be seen that there areseveral key areas (highlighted above) where the forecast skill is high in both its variability and magnitude, andthe solar GHI is both abundant and highly variable. These regions demonstrate where summer seasonal solarGHI forecasts have the greatest value and potential for operational use.Areas ofInterest:(Forecast skill)Areas ofInterest:(Resources)Solar GHI inter-annual variabilitySolar GHI availabilityStage A: Solar GHI Resource AssessmentVariability forecast skillWhere is solar GHI forecast skill highest?Where is solar resource potential + volatility highestSUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)EuropeN.Brasil?/E.Brasil/N.Chile/N.ArgentinaC-C.E.Indone-sia/W.China/UAE/S.E.SaudiArabiaC.W.Australia/Pacific IslesS.America Africa Asia AustraliaS.E.Canada/CaribbeanIslesN.AmericaSpain/Portugal/Medite-rranean/S.E.Europe/W.Great Britain/S.Norway/S.Sweden/N.Finland?S-S.Africa/N.Mozambi-que/EthiopiaEuropeN.Continent/C-N.Chile-ArgentinaborderCentralContinentS.W.Continent/C-C.E.Continent/W-N.W.ContinentPapua NewGuineaS.America Africa Asia AustraliaN.C.America/S.W.CanadaN.AmericaUK/Norway/Sweden/S.Finland/N.MainlandEurope
  11. 11. Climate Forecasting Unit%Areas of Interest Identified:(Resources and Forecast Skill)S.AmericaN.Brasil?/E.Brasil/C-N.Chile-ArgentinaborderS.AmericaFig. S3.2.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) summer 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)Stage C: Operational Solar GHI ForecastThis operational solar forecast shows the probability of global solar GHI to be higher (red), lower (blue) ornormal (white) over the forthcoming summer season, compared to their mean value over the past 30 years.As the forecast season is summer 2011, this is an example of solar GHI forecast information that could havebeen available for use within a decision making process in May 2011.SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)EuropeW.Great Britain/S.Norway/S.SwedenAfricaEthiopia W.ChinaAsia
  12. 12. Climate Forecasting Unit%Areas of Interest Identified:(Resources and Forecast Skill)Stage C: Operational Solar GHI ForecastThe key areas of highest interest are shown, identified in the stages A and B of the forecast methodology.These regions demonstrate where summer seasonal solar GHI forecasts have the greatest value andpotential for operational use. The areas that are blanked out either have lower forecast skill in summer (StageB) and/or lower solar GHI availability and inter-annual variability (Stage A).Fig. S3.2.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) summer 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)S.AmericaN.Brasil?/E.Brasil/C-N.Chile-ArgentinaborderS.AmericaEuropeW.Great Britain/S.Norway/S.SwedenAfricaEthiopia W.ChinaAsia
  13. 13. Climate Forecasting Unit%Areas of Interest Identified:(Resources and Forecast Skill)Stage C: Operational Solar GHI ForecastThis does not mean that the blanked out areas are not useful, only that the operational solar GHI forecastinformation for these regions should be used within a decision making process with due awareness to theircorresponding limitations. The primary limitations to a climate forecast are either the forecast skill and/or thelow risk of variability in solar GHI for a given region. See the “caveats” webpage for further limitations.Fig. S3.2.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) summer 2011, solar GHI most likely tercile(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)SUMMER Solar PV Forecasts(June + July + August)S.AmericaN.Brasil?/E.Brasil/C-N.Chile-ArgentinaborderS.AmericaEuropeW.Great Britain/S.Norway/S.SwedenAfricaEthiopia W.ChinaAsia
  14. 14. Climate Forecasting UnitThe research leading to these results has received fundingfrom the European Union Seventh Framework Programme(FP7/2007-2013) under the following projects:CLIM-RUN, www.clim-run.eu (GA n° 265192)EUPORIAS, www.euporias.eu (GA n° 308291)SPECS, www.specs-fp7.eu (GA n° 308378)

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