Paul Leishman, MMU Manager February 2011, Barcelona Is there really any money in mobile money?
Our research and analysis process 1 2 3 GSMA Financial Model <ul><li>Developed based on GSMA interviews and collaboration with MTN Uganda </li></ul><ul><li>Populated with actual data from MTN Uganda </li></ul><ul><li>Considers every impact, good or bad, that mobile money can have for an MNO </li></ul>Analysis of data from MMU fund grantees Interviews with mobile money practitioners Deep-dive on MTN Uganda’s MobileMoney
Uganda and MTN Uganda’s MobileMoney <ul><li>Market: Uganda </li></ul><ul><li>Population </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile Penetration </li></ul><ul><li>Access to Finance </li></ul><ul><li>GDP per capita </li></ul><ul><li>Operator: MTN </li></ul><ul><li>Connections </li></ul><ul><li>Market share </li></ul><ul><li>Deployment: MobileMoney </li></ul><ul><li>Accounts </li></ul>4.8 mil 40% 960,000 32 mil 35% 20% US$1,147 Active Customers P2P Transfers Per Month
Is there really any money in mobile money? Monthly Revenue Monthly Cash Expenses Monthly Net Cash Flow Cumulative Financing Requirement MTN Uganda’s MobileMoney: Cash-Flows MTN Uganda’s MobileMoney is now cash-flow positive on a month-to-month basis, just 14 months after their launch MTN’s cumulative financing requirement was less than US$4 million dollars
Where does the money come from? Retained ARPU from churn reduction Airtime distribution savings Money transfer contribution Uplift in voice/data consumption MTN Uganda’s MobileMoney: Contribution to Gross Profit <ul><li>Highlights </li></ul><ul><li>52% of MTN Uganda’s MobileMoney gross profit to date has come directly from their money transfer service (fees minus agent commissions) </li></ul><ul><li>Indirect benefits combined account for 48% of the gross profit generated to date </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Churn rate for mobile money customers has been no more than 0.2% per month compared to 4.5% per month on average for non-MobileMoney customers. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3% of total monthly airtime sales now flows through MobileMoney – at roughly a 9% discount. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>MobileMoney customers consume slightly more voice and data than do non-MobileMoney customers. </li></ul></ul>
How much must operators invest before earning a profit? Total Year-1 Year-2 Variable Costs Step Costs Fixed Costs MTN Uganda’s MobileMoney: Cost Breakdown The financing requirement for a successful mobile money service will ultimately be driven by step and variable costs.
How can operators maximize direct revenues? Revenue from transfers to registered customers Average volume of transfers to registered customers Average volume of transfers to unregistered recipients 1 Enable transfers to unregistered recipients Mobile market share % Transfers to unregistered recipients Revenue from unregistered recipients Revenue from transfers to unregistered recipients
How can operators unlock churn reduction benefits? Churn Rates: MTN Uganda 1 <ul><li>Good execution </li></ul><ul><li>provide access to a liquid agent network </li></ul><ul><li>quickly resolve issues via customer care </li></ul>2 <ul><li>Educating customers upon registration </li></ul><ul><li>churn reduction benefits, not surprisingly, are highest for those customers that are active </li></ul>3 <ul><li>Targeting lapsed customers </li></ul><ul><li>targeted SMS activities or outbound calls to lapsed customers can help trigger activity and unlock churn reduction benefits </li></ul>
How can operators unlock airtime distribution savings? 2 Promote specific uses of airtime top-up in above-the-line marketing 3 Use contests and draws as a substitute for permanent discounts to avoid negating savings. 1 Gauge the size of the opportunity “ Top-up with mobile money after hours” “ Top-up with mobile money in any amount” Illustrative Data Size of discount paid for selling scratch-cards Cost of card production, inventory, and fraud Cash-in commission paid to agents Customer discounts and agent commissions Opportunity 9% 3% 0.5% 10% 1.5% + – – = “ Old” scratch-card related costs mobile money can eliminate “ New” costs that are part of facilitating mobile top-up
How can operators drive increased consumption of voice/SMS? Incidence of multiple SIM in the Philippines (2009 survey) Use of mobile money SIM as primary (2009 survey) Potential up-side for MNO is immense – but airtime top-up cannot be the only service at play. “ Please indicate how many SIM cards you carry” “ Which SIM card do you use as your primary SIM?”
How can operators manage their costs? 2 Ensure SIM strategy is aligned with growth projections 1 Protect highly strategic, comparatively inexpensive activities MTN Uganda’s MobileMoney: total costs to date Agent network costs Customer acquisition and registration costs Cash-in/cash-out commissions Technology costs ARPU loss from discounting Selling expenses G&A Agent network costs Customer care 3 Focus on active customers – not just registrations
Summary 1 MTN Uganda has illustrated that there is money in mobile money ... 2 ... And that roughly half of the value comes from indirect benefits , including reduction in churn, savings from airtime distribution and uplift in consumption of voice and SMS. 3 It’s difficult to say how much an operator must invest since the financing requirement is driven by variable and step costs ... 4 ... But success will only materialize for operators that bet on their own success with investments in marketing and staff.