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How Large Systems Change

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Presented to University of South Australia

Published in: Education, Business

How Large Systems Change

  1. 1. How large systems change: Thoughts on the future of higher education George Siemens, PhD September 3, 2013 University of South Australia
  2. 2. Philadelphia Inquirer Newsroom, 2009
  3. 3. Philadelphia Inquirer Newsroom, 2012
  4. 4. Technological and economic pressures change even the biggest institutions.
  5. 5. We don’t know what higher education will become
  6. 6. But we have models of how it will change
  7. 7. Perez 2011
  8. 8. Perez 2002
  9. 9. Perez 2002
  10. 10. Perez 2011
  11. 11. Economic
  12. 12. “In the face of continued increases in participation, demographic change and – in the west at least – profound fiscal crises, higher education institutions are increasingly being required to raise funds from students as opposed to relying on transfers from governments.” Marcucci & Usher 2012
  13. 13. Meeker & Wu, 2013
  14. 14. Education Sector Factbook, 2012
  15. 15. IBIS Capital: Global e-Learning Investment Review, 2013
  16. 16. NYTimes, UNESCO Data
  17. 17. Economic
  18. 18. Meeker & Wu, 2013
  19. 19. Meeker & Wu, 2013
  20. 20. Getting the idea, but not the scope of change
  21. 21. What does this mean for education?
  22. 22. “Changing…higher education is a faculty responsibility” Zemsky 2013
  23. 23. A university as “assemblage of strangers from all parts in one spot” J.H. Newman Lecturers 1854-1859
  24. 24. What we are seeing is the complexification of higher education Learning needs are complex, ongoing Simple singular narrative won’t suffice going forward The idea of the university is expanding and diversifying
  25. 25. McKinsey Quarterly, 2012
  26. 26. CalculatedRISK, 2013
  27. 27. CalculatedRISK, 2013
  28. 28. CalculatedRISK, 2013
  29. 29. Challenge then is to create a new integrated whole
  30. 30. Challenge then is to create a new integrated system
  31. 31. University as an agent within society
  32. 32. Network Theory of Power Networking Power Network Power Networked Power Network-making Power Castells, 2011
  33. 33. the world will fragment, with some parts moving towards the brighter side of networked individualism and other parts moving towards gated communities and more tightly controlled information flows.
  34. 34. Network Theory of Change
  35. 35. Network Theory of Change Core nodes Impacting factors (economic, technical) Connection validation Social and cultural milieu (institutional change) Resonance Integration (hardening) for power
  36. 36. Current reforms are allowing certain individuals with neither scholarly nor practical expertise in education to exert significant influence over educational policy for communities and children other than their own.
  37. 37. Prominent trends shaping the future of higher education 1. Openness 2. Digital learning 3. Granularized learning 4. Data & analytics 5. For-profit/startups (expanding ecosystem) 6. Personalization/adaptivity 7. Wearable/contextual computing 8. Unbundling of organizational roles 9. Blurring distinctive learning roles (lifelong) 10.Degrees and alternative recognition models
  38. 38. When systems are distributed, alternative modes of integration are needed Stasser-Titus (1985)
  39. 39. Value is in the lock-in and integration (i.e. ecosystem and new networks)
  40. 40. Higher education change 1. Understand how large systems change 2. Track data relating to sector around technology and economics 3. Position techno-economic change in social contexts/zeitgeist/values 4. Aggressive experimentation and new models (without regard for existing norms/legacies) 5. New ecosystems and new integration models
  41. 41. Futures Scenarios for Universities 1. Status Quo 2. Accreditors (teach globally, accredit locally) -Outsourcing of services (tech, curriculum, testing) 3. Unbundled (teacher/research separate) 4. Localized/specialized 5. “Transformed” (online, blended) 6. Successful universities as “new integrators” - Formation of integrated value ecosystem
  42. 42. What to expect: - Outsourcing of services (tech, curriculum, teaching, testing) - Increased collaboration/partnerships with sector-providers - New entrants (often startups) into the integrated value ecosystem - Successful universities are “new integrators” - Labor strife - Concerns about pace of, and ideologies behind, change
  43. 43. Twitter/Gmail: gsiemens

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