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Presented to CANHEIT on June 11, 2012

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  • A New Paradigm for Economic Growth, March 2010
  • Higher Education, Research and Innovation: Changing Dynamics
  • GLOBAL EDUCATION DIGEST 2009 Comparing Education Statistics Across the World
  • Education Today THE OECD PERSPECTIVE, 2009
  • Source: TD special report on post secondary education
  • Source: TD special report on post secondary education
  • EPI: ON THE BRINK How the Recession of 2009 Will Affect Post-Secondary Education
  • 2011 Year in Review: Global changes in Tuition Fee Policies and Student Assistance
  • Source: TD special report on post secondary education
  • Adapted from:

    1. 1. Many Points of Innovation:What becomes of the university in a digital, networked world? George Siemens, PhD June 11, 2012 Presented to: CANHEIT Saskatoon, Saskatchewan
    2. 2. - 38,000 students- One of four research universities in Alberta- Only US accredited Canadian university (MSCHE)- Bachelor, masters, doctoral education- Fully online
    3. 3. Inter-disciplinary research centre- Mobile- Personalization/adaptation- Social networks/media- Learning analytics- Semantic web- Openness
    4. 4. Some warnings1. Our education problems are not the same asin USA, where much of the academic changelanguage originates2. No one knows where we’ll end up, be (very)wary of people who have answers and solutions3. The value of an integrated system and theneed to see change as sytemic
    5. 5. Preponderance of changeCurriculumTeachingAccreditationResearchAdministration
    6. 6. “Change is as inevitable as the passage oftime, but line of movement in the modern worldseems to be accelerating and presenting highereducation more complex challenges with eachpassing decade.” Altbach, Reisberg & Rumbley, 2009
    7. 7. “The current system is unsustainable from afinancial and quality perspective” Drummond Report, 2012
    8. 8. “We see no bright lights on the financial horizonas we face limits on tuition increases, anenvironment of declining federal support, statesupport that will be flat at best”
    9. 9. “The Board believes this environment calls for amuch faster pace of change in administrativestructure, in governance, in financial resourcedevelopment and in resource prioritization andallocation. We do not believe we can evenmaintain our current standard under a modelof incremental, marginal change. The world issimply moving too fast.”
    10. 10. In this corner…
    11. 11. Higher education: the latest bubble?
    12. 12. “Thirty years from now the big universitycampuses will be relics. Universities wontsurvive. Its as large a change as when we firstgot the printed book.” Drucker, Forbes, 1997
    13. 13. Students, however, can no longer assume that afour year degree will be the golden ticket to agood job in a global economy that cares little fortheir social networking skills and more aboutwhat their labor is worth on the globalmarketplace. Bill Gross, 2011
    14. 14. 20 people under the age of 20.$100,000.Drop out of school.Change the world.
    15. 15. In the other corner…
    16. 16. University as economic engines:In the economy of the future, the businessesthat will have staying power, and growthpotential, will be those most dependent onknowledge — on research, new ideas, newtechnologies, new processes, upgraded skills fortheir workers. Rockefeller Institute, 2010
    17. 17. “all countries, whatever their level ofdevelopment, have been obliged to reviewand reorganize their capacities for accessingand benefiting from the high-level knowledgewhich shapes social change.” UNESCO, Higher Education: Research and Innovation, 2009
    18. 18. 150.6 million higher education students globally.53% increase from 2000. Altbach, Reisberg, Rumbley, 2009
    19. 19. Global EducationDigest, 2009,UNESCO, Institutefor Statistics
    20. 20. Foreign Students in Tertiary Education by Country of Destination, OECD, 2009
    21. 21. “Rather, the change we expect over the nextforty years will be little short oftransformational. What is new, at least since theindustrial revolution of the late eighteenthcentury, is the prominence of today’s emergingmarket economies (EMs) in world trade.”
    22. 22. Martin Prosperity Institute, 2009
    23. 23. “For institutions, finding new sources ofrevenue which are not based on equities andare not under the control of governments willbe of key importance.” Educational Policy Institute, 2009
    24. 24. “In the face of continued increases inparticipation, demographic change and – in thewest at least – profound fiscal crises, highereducation institutions are increasingly beingrequired to raise funds from students asopposed to relying on transfers fromgovernments.” Marcucci & Usher 2012
    25. 25. “Across the 37 G-40 countries for which data isavailable (precise tuition fee data is missing forIndia, Indonesia and Mexico), tuition feesincreased in 18 countries; however, in only eightcountries did the increase outpace inflation.” Marcucci & Usher 2012
    26. 26. Cloud computing
    27. 27. SaaS PaaS IaaSCloud Computing
    28. 28.
    29. 29. Ed-tech startupsWith transformations already underway innews, music, videos/movies, startup gold rushnow turning focus to education
    30. 30. Preponderance of changeCurriculumTeachingAccreditationResearchAdministration
    31. 31. “…supplies universities with thetools, expertise, capital, and global recruitingneeded to compete in a space currentlydominated by mediocre programs.”
    32. 32. Textbook publishers are repositioning:- Digital- Chunked- Teacher supports- Integrated(acquisition: good time to be an edtech startup)
    33. 33. Preponderance of changeCurriculumTeachingAccreditationResearchAdministration
    34. 34. Distance education represents an area ofenormous potential for higher educationsystems around the world…The distance learning landscape has beentransformed by ICTs, allowing for real growth innumbers and types of providers, curriculumdevelopers, modes of delivery and pedagogicalinnovations. Altbach, Reisberg, Rumbley, 2009
    35. 35. Education Sector Factbook, 2012
    36. 36. Allen, Seaman (2011)
    37. 37. The university has secured the option to borrow $7-million to helppay for the project and may spend $4-million to $7-million of thatmoney over the next several years, he said.In order to repay what it borrows, Mr. Greenstein outlined a new planto offer the online courses to people not enrolled at the University ofCalifornia, as well as to undergraduates. Tuition from those studentswill pay the loan back, he said.”
    38. 38. MOOCsChanged relationship between teacher/learnerDistributed, chaotic, emergent.Learners expected to create, grow, expanddomain and share personal sensemakingthrough artifact-creation
    39. 39. Open online courses
    40. 40. Online Self-Organizing Social Systems (OSOSS)“structure allows large numbers of individuals toself-organize in a highly decentralized mannerin order to solve problems and accomplish othergoals.” Wiley & Edwards 2003
    41. 41. Personalization and adaptive learning at a large scale
    42. 42. Preponderance of changeCurriculumTeachingAccreditationResearchAdministration
    43. 43. New assessment models
    44. 44. “Pay for performance” education?Shifting (sharing) responsibility for studentsuccess with content providers?
    45. 45. Preponderance of changeCurriculumTeachingAccreditationResearchAdministration
    46. 46. Distributed research and discovery networks
    47. 47. 2012 Canadian federal budget: focus onresearch for commercial innovation, economicgrowth Ch. 3.1
    48. 48. “networked science has thepotential to dramaticallyspeed up the rate of scientificdiscovery”
    49. 49. Distributed Research Lab: for research leads and doctoral students
    50. 50. Preponderance of changeCurriculumTeachingAccreditationResearchAdministration
    51. 51. CertificatesFastest growing form of credentialing (800%increase in 30 years)Industry-facing Carnevale, Rose, Hanson 2012
    52. 52. +
    53. 53. Disrupting disruptors?
    54. 54. Ontario Online Institute?
    55. 55. “The world is one big data problem” Gilad Elbaz
    56. 56. Learning analytics is the measurement,collection, analysis and reporting of dataabout learners and their contexts, forpurposes of understanding and optimizinglearning and the environments in which itoccurs.
    57. 57. Focus of analytics Who Benefits?Course-level: social networks, Learners, facultyconceptual development, languageanalysisAggregate (big data) predictive Learners, facultymodeling, patterns of success/failureInstitutional: learner profiles, Administrators, IR, funders,performance of academics, resource marketingallocationRegional & National (state/provincial): Governments, administratorscomparisons between systemsInternational: ‘world class universities’ National governments (OECD),
    58. 58. Soon, we’ll all have centres fored-innovation…(and/or higher ed studies)
    59. 59. When systems are distributed, alternativemodes of integration are needed Stasser-Titus (1985)
    60. 60. Creating integrated ecosystems:Content,Delivery,Assessment(The integrator, rules)
    61. 61. Expect- Outsourcing of services (tech, curriculum,teaching, testing)- Collaboration/partnerships with sector-providers- New entrants into the integrated value ecosystem- Successful universities are “new integrators”- Few large winners, many losers- Labour strife
    62. 62. October 8-November 16, 2012
    63. 63. gsiemens @ gmail Twitter Skype FB