"Smart Money on Smart Growth", Evan Richert. Summit 2012, 10/23/12

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"Smart Money on Smart Growth", Evan Richert. Summit 2012, 10/23/12

  1. 1. Smart Money on Smart Growth Trends since 2006 Evan Richert 2012 GrowSmart Maine Summit
  2. 2. A Few Old FriendsSmall Town CivicsYoung TurksIntrospectives
  3. 3. The Untapped Market Share of All Homebuyers Share Not ServedSmall Town Civics 24% 70%Young Turks 12% 36%Introspectives 15% 35%Totals 51% 37%
  4. 4. 4 Forces Shaping Market Preferences: • Great Recession • Gasoline Prices • Connectivity • Rise of GenY
  5. 5. Charting Maine’sFuture Released
  6. 6. Charting Maine’s Future ReleasedSource: D. Short, Advisors Pspective, Inc.
  7. 7. Shifting Breakeven Cost, Housing + Commuting Portland Area
  8. 8. Shifting Breakeven Costs, Housing + Commuting Bangor Area Housing + Commuting Costs (work in Bangor) $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 Commuting Cost $5,000 Housing Cost $0
  9. 9. Connectivity since 2006 3-Ring Bind Active Twitter Accounts, 2007 v 2012 Three-Ring Binder 160 140,000,000 140 120 Millions 100 80 60 40 20 50,000 0Charting Maine’s 2007 2012Future Released;Twitter est. 2006
  10. 10. Est. Maine Population by Generation, 2011 0 100 200 300 400 Thousands >65 yrsBaby Boom 382,000 Gen X Gen Y 301,000 0-9 yrs
  11. 11. Where Gen Y Lives and Works “They are willing to pay for the ability to walk. They don’t want to be in a cookie-cutter type of development. The suburbs will need to evolve to be attractive to Gen Y.” -- Melina Duggal, RCLCO Real Estate Advisors, 2011 NAHB Current Location of Gen-Y Current and Projected Location of Owners Gen Y Work Places Urban Urban 72%(Downtown, In-City 49% (Downtown, In-CityNhood, Small City) Nhood, Small City) Suburbs (Older & Suburbs (Older & 21% Outlying) 38% Outlying) 2015 2010 Source: ULI, 2011 6% Rural Community 14% Rural Community 0% 20% 40% 60% Source: ULI, 2011 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
  12. 12. Fewer and Shorter Vehicle Trips Change in Vehicle Trips and Miles Per Person 18-34 yrs old, 2001-2009 0.0% -5.0% -4.2% -10.0% -15.0% -16.6% -20.0% -21.5% -25.0% Population 18-34 Vehicle trips Vehicle miles Source: NHTS, US Dept of Transportation
  13. 13. Importance of Walking Distance toShopping, Gathering Spaces: Gen Y Essential 14% Preferable 50% Not an Issue 36% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Source: ULI, “Generation Y: America’s New Housing Wave,” 2011
  14. 14. Tapping into the Market
  15. 15. Dunstan Crossing…
  16. 16. …And Eastern Village
  17. 17. Flexible, Networked Work Space PelotonLabs, Portland Think Tank, Portland CoLab Gardiner
  18. 18. New Wave of Mill Redevelopment Hathaway Creative Center, Waterville Sanford Mill,Bates Mill and SanfordFountain Park,Lewiston
  19. 19. New Life for Downtown Waterfronts: Entertainment Bangor Waterfront Pavilion
  20. 20. Infill on <5000 sf Lots, So. Portland Photos: Kristel Sheesley
  21. 21. Seeping into the Official Language Transit-Oriented Development TIF District (Orono-UMaine Shuttle)Traditional Neighborhood Development(TND) Zoning District, Scarborough Form-Based Zoning Walkability (Standish) (walkscore.com)
  22. 22. A Few Old FriendsSmall Town CivicsYoung TurksIntrospectives

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