Jarvis Skamania Lecture 11 4

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Jarvis Skamania Lecture 11 4

  1. 1. Peak Oil meets Peak Water: Moving towards Unitization of Shared Groundwater “Water is the oil of this century.” Dow Chemical Chair Andrew Liveris, World Economic Forum, February, 2008 W. Todd Jarvis Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation
  2. 2. Overview  Peak Oil versus Peak Water  Unitization Concepts  Examples where it works  Conclusions
  3. 3. Peak Oil Hubbert Curve www.almc.army.mil/.../JulAug99/MS406c2.jpg
  4. 4. Peak Water Non-renewable Groundwater Peak Ecological Water From Palaniappan and Gleick, 2009
  5. 5. What is Unitization? Oil business terminology Consolidation of all, or a large percentage of royalty or participating interests, in a “pool” as will permit reservoir engineers to plan operation of the pool. In the case of groundwater “…government-mandated unitization of groundwater … is a solution to excessive access and drawdown … a single “unit operator” extracts from and develops the reservoir. All other parties share in the net returns as share holders.” Libecap (2005)
  6. 6. Post-Modern Geohydrologic Balance: New Shareholders for Groundwater Changes in Changes in Precipitation Land Use & Cover Pumpage Virtual Water Imports/Exports Water Manufacturing/ Conservation Baseflow- Contamination Ecosystem Maintenance GW and SW GW and SW Inflows Net GW Availability Outflows Diagram from Ragone (2007)
  7. 7. Damage to Aquifer Storage? 200 180 Rated Well Capacity Average Production (GPM) 160 140 120 100 Snowmelt Snowmelt Snowmelt 80 Snowmelt Snowmelt 60 40 20 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 From Matyjasik, Yonkee and Jarvis, 2002
  8. 8. The Boundary Issue Probably the biggest challenge, but not insurmountable Oil Units – based on subsurface faults, permeability barriers, assured productive limits of reservoir Adaptive mgmt. with new data Diagram from Kumar (2007)
  9. 9. Southern Nevada Water vs. UT Nevada Utah Cave Valley Ranch paid $4M by SNWA to not develop water on 1,500 acres Adapted from High Country News, 2009
  10. 10. Mississippi vs. Memphis, TN Seeking $1Billion in damages Tennessee Mississippi From Cameron, 2009
  11. 11. Unitizing “Oregon’s Oil”? Washington Diagram courtesy of Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation
  12. 12. Blurring the Boundaries Negotiation Common Collaborative Geographic Core Motive Stage Water Skills Scope Influencing Claims Decision Making Adversarial Rights Trust-building Nations Institutions Reflexive Needs Skills-building Watersheds Information Integrative Benefits Consensus- “Benefit- Incentives building sheds” Action Equity Capacity- Region Identity building Adapted from Jarvis and Wolf, in review
  13. 13. Benefits of Unitization? The real benefit is in the emerging use of managed recharge applications – i.e., Kumamoto, Japan Well interference issues and costs minimized – SNWA vs. Utah and the recent $4Million “payoff” Increase private investment in ASR and non- renewable groundwater - Similar to secondary and tertiary oil recovery operations May promote groundwater exploration and development on federal lands because of success of oil unitization
  14. 14. Conclusions   Peak Water can learn from Peak Oil   Unitization of groundwater is a pro-market approach to decreasing conflict over water resources and increasing water availability.   Unitization of groundwater may lessen damage to the storativity of hard rock aquifers.   Unitization concepts are currently applied nationally and internationally for groundwater exploitation and managed recharge.
  15. 15. Thank you for your attention.

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