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Foodservice Solutions®
Steven Johnson - Grocerant Guru™
SJU Food Summit 2015
“Fresh” Thinking
in Food Marketing
October 13...
Grocerant Guru™
Steven Johnson
Grocerant Guru™
Foodservice Solutions®
Tacoma, WA
253.759.7869
www.FoodserviceSolutions.us
...
Executive Insights
Value Retailers continue to
garner market share (Fresh
Format & Dollar stores
winning)
Grocery consolid...
Executive Insights
Time is the true commodity
Customer outcomes are more
important than products
Fresh food fast is the on...
A Danish Philosopher
“Life can only be
understood backwards;
but it must be lived
forwards.”
- Soren Kierkegaard
Battle for Share of Stomach
GrocerantGuru.com
Points of Distribution
Sources: Nielsen, NRA, Progressive Grocer Annual
Reports (various years)
Forced Fresh Looking Differently
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, SNAP
Chain Restaurant YOY Customer Counts
Sources: Company SEC 10Ks, Piper Jeffray Cookbook,
Pacific Management Consulting Group
Restaurant Off Premise
Source: Pacific Management Consulting Group / Foodservice Solutions®
US Retail Sales Dollars
Buying More Grocerant vs. Fast Food
Source: Technomic, 2015
Buying more Grocerant Ready-2-Eat and
Heat-N-Eat than last year
Why More Grocerant
Why are you purchasing food service items
at retailers more often?
(select all that apply)
Sources: Tec...
Fresh First Traditional Supermarket last
Projected percent change in
store count, 2013 – 2018 (projected)
Sources: Willard...
Grocery Discontinuity
Sources: Willard Bishop
Projected change in
market share,
2013-2018
(select all that apply)
Looking Ahead
Is Amazon providing instant gratification vs. your
impulse buy?
Amazon Marketing Power
“Time is the true commodity and only
Amazon really gets that”
Source: Lee Peterson, EVP Brand Strat...
It’s About Time
1940: Home Cooked 150 Minutes
2000: Average time spent inside
McDonalds was 11 minutes
Today: Home Cooked ...
How much time to Consumer take to prepared Dinner each night?
It’s About Time
Source: How America Eats – The Hartman Group
It’s About Time
EVERYDAY
At Noon 83.7% Do not
know what’s for Dinner
At 4:00 PM 68.7% Still
Don’t know What’s For
Dinner?
...
Michael Porter
“ Industry boundaries are
expanding, and they can expand
even more. We’re going to see a
combination of bar...
Looking Ahead
50% of Americans Over the Age of
18 are Single
Nearly 50% of all eating occasions
are alone
Only 31% of dinn...
Price Matters
“Poor people must
save, rich people like
to”
ALDI believes that they are purveying a
universally exportable ...
Price Matters But How Much?
The average cost of a restaurant meal per
person in 2014 was $6.96; the estimated
average cost...
Don’t Be Static... Evolve.
Consumers are Dynamic
not Static.
Brands must be as well.
Pizza Hut
Opened first store in 1958 by
1966 Pizza Hut had 145
restaurants serving pizza,
lasagna, salads, all walk in sit...
Pizza Hut
By 1968 Pizza Hut had 301
units open. 500 units open
by 1970 and 1,000 open by
1971 and Pizza Hut was the
larges...
Pizza Hut
By 1973 Pizza Hut had 2000
restaurants open. In 1977
they had 3,000 restaurants
open and things were
changing.
P...
Pizza Hut Time for Change
In 1983 boundaries were
coming down. Pizza Hut was
expanding this time
introducing delivery but ...
Pizza Hut Kept Moving
By 1986 Pizza Hut had 5000
units with the conversion to
delivery only drove sales and
profits, reduc...
Pizza Hut
Today 15,000 units with less
than 50 full service
sit down restaurants in
the world.
Source: Pizza Hut, 2015
Yum Brands
Out-Sourced: Amazon Why Not?
Evolving Pizza
Americans spend 37 billion a year on pizza
Households eating frozen pizza dropped between
2010 - 2014, and ...
Things You Might Not Know
The number one new food product
launch in 2014 was Lunchables
(Ready-2-Eat), Uploaded with 87%
d...
SNAP Status Quo
ONE QUESTION:
Compelled to buy to Want to Buy?
SNAP average transaction is $23
75% of SNAP participants ha...
Price, Value, Service Equilibrium
Consumers are resetting the Price, Value, Service
Equilibrium.
Here is Foodservice Solut...
Attribute
Outlet
#
1216
Parking
Lot
Food
Visual
Appeal
Smell
Oder
Aroma
Customers
Like
Me
Temperature
Taste
Restaurants
QS...
Grocerant Scorecard
Attribute
Outlet
#
1216
Price Delivery Catering Digital
Payment
In Store
POP
Restaurants
QSR, FC, C, F...
Grocerant Scorecard
Attribute
Outlet
#
1216
Digital
Menu’s
Staff
Well
Groomed
Speed
at
Breakfast
Speed
at
Lunch
Speed
At
D...
Positioning Choice
Retailers have 4
options:
Different, Better,
Cheaper, or Not
Around Much Longer.
Source: Foodservice So...
Portability Success Leaders
The Face of Fresh
Source: Willard Bishop, Technomic
Funding Food
In 2014 $2.36 billion was
raised to fund 264 Food
Start-Up’s.
Hello Fresh IPO Priced at
$2.9 Billion
Plated, ...
Eatzi’s – Niche Pioneer
Rutter’s – Steps to Success
MIX & MATCH LUNCH & DINNER
Pantry Busters
Source: NACS
SQUARE ONE
MARKETS
SIX ’O’ CLOCK
SCRAMBLE
Whole Foods Is Fresh Food
Safeway
Walgreens Café W Plus
Walgreens Fresh & Fast
Summary
Consumers take advantage of
options
Grocery channel shopping frequency
continues to decline
Value retailers postin...
Summary
RETAILERS
Competition is going after your
shoppers & their shopping trips
Invest dollars to re-invent yourselves!
...
Summary
Price = Transparency
Time is the True Commodity
Customer Outcomes are more
Important than Products
Fresh Food Fast...
Grocerant Guru™
Steven Johnson
Grocerant Guru™
Foodservice Solutions®
Tacoma, WA
253.759.7869
www.FoodserviceSolutions.us
...
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Grocerant Guru® Speaking at the Food Summit

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"Fresh" Thinking in Food Marketing

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Grocerant Guru® Speaking at the Food Summit

  1. 1. Foodservice Solutions® Steven Johnson - Grocerant Guru™ SJU Food Summit 2015 “Fresh” Thinking in Food Marketing October 13, 2015 Food Quality Never Takes a Step Backward Exploring expanding points of fresh food competition and opportunities. Consumers Like Eating-Out when Eating-In
  2. 2. Grocerant Guru™ Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru™ Foodservice Solutions® Tacoma, WA 253.759.7869 www.FoodserviceSolutions.us THE GROCERANT NICHE Fresh Prepared Ready-2-Eat Heat-N-Eat “ITS ABOUT TIME” Thinking About your Customers Differently ©Foodservice Solutions®
  3. 3. Executive Insights Value Retailers continue to garner market share (Fresh Format & Dollar stores winning) Grocery consolidation & trip erosion continue Rite Aide, CVS, Walgreens customer expansion grabbing “quick” trips Restaurants sales of Take-Away continues to rise Start-up’s from Meal-Kit’s to Delivery companies are well funded.
  4. 4. Executive Insights Time is the true commodity Customer outcomes are more important than products Fresh food fast is the only difference between profitable differentiation & commodity competition Price = Transparency
  5. 5. A Danish Philosopher “Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” - Soren Kierkegaard
  6. 6. Battle for Share of Stomach GrocerantGuru.com
  7. 7. Points of Distribution Sources: Nielsen, NRA, Progressive Grocer Annual Reports (various years)
  8. 8. Forced Fresh Looking Differently Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, SNAP
  9. 9. Chain Restaurant YOY Customer Counts Sources: Company SEC 10Ks, Piper Jeffray Cookbook, Pacific Management Consulting Group
  10. 10. Restaurant Off Premise Source: Pacific Management Consulting Group / Foodservice Solutions®
  11. 11. US Retail Sales Dollars
  12. 12. Buying More Grocerant vs. Fast Food Source: Technomic, 2015 Buying more Grocerant Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat than last year
  13. 13. Why More Grocerant Why are you purchasing food service items at retailers more often? (select all that apply) Sources: Technomic, 2015
  14. 14. Fresh First Traditional Supermarket last Projected percent change in store count, 2013 – 2018 (projected) Sources: Willard Bishop
  15. 15. Grocery Discontinuity Sources: Willard Bishop Projected change in market share, 2013-2018 (select all that apply)
  16. 16. Looking Ahead Is Amazon providing instant gratification vs. your impulse buy?
  17. 17. Amazon Marketing Power “Time is the true commodity and only Amazon really gets that” Source: Lee Peterson, EVP Brand Strategy and Design WD Partners All Food Products are Commodities Price, Value, Service, Equilibrium is resetting Source: Foodservice Solutions® Amazon Prime, a yearly subscription service with 50 million consumers Source: WSJ, WD Partners
  18. 18. It’s About Time 1940: Home Cooked 150 Minutes 2000: Average time spent inside McDonalds was 11 minutes Today: Home Cooked Meal In Less than30 Minutes 74% of All QSR meals Drive-Thru 1 in 3 men spend 15 min or less a day on food prep Source: National Restaurant Association, Foodinsights.org
  19. 19. How much time to Consumer take to prepared Dinner each night? It’s About Time Source: How America Eats – The Hartman Group
  20. 20. It’s About Time EVERYDAY At Noon 83.7% Do not know what’s for Dinner At 4:00 PM 68.7% Still Don’t know What’s For Dinner? Source: Foodservice Solutions / Walgreens
  21. 21. Michael Porter “ Industry boundaries are expanding, and they can expand even more. We’re going to see a combination of barriers to entry going up and the opportunity for disruption going up simultaneously.” Source: Michael Porter. FoodInsights.org, 2015
  22. 22. Looking Ahead 50% of Americans Over the Age of 18 are Single Nearly 50% of all eating occasions are alone Only 31% of dinners were made from scratch Six in 10 dinners were planned within an hour of eating Source: US Census, Hartman Group
  23. 23. Price Matters “Poor people must save, rich people like to” ALDI believes that they are purveying a universally exportable price message to the world Source: WSJ. FoodInsights.org, 2015
  24. 24. Price Matters But How Much? The average cost of a restaurant meal per person in 2014 was $6.96; the estimated average cost for an in-home prepared meal was $2.31 All the while the U.S. Census Bureau announced foodservice spending exceed grocery spending for the first time ever. Note: It did not include spending at ‘big box club stores’ Taste came in first but Price came in second at 68% in a 2015 IFIC poll. Quick service restaurants represent 78% of total restaurant industry traffic. Source: The NPD Group, IFIC, US Census Data
  25. 25. Don’t Be Static... Evolve. Consumers are Dynamic not Static. Brands must be as well.
  26. 26. Pizza Hut Opened first store in 1958 by 1966 Pizza Hut had 145 restaurants serving pizza, lasagna, salads, all walk in sit down table service dining. Source: Pizza Hut 2015
  27. 27. Pizza Hut By 1968 Pizza Hut had 301 units open. 500 units open by 1970 and 1,000 open by 1971 and Pizza Hut was the largest Pizza Chain in the world. All walk in restaurants with table service. Source: Pizza Hut 2015
  28. 28. Pizza Hut By 1973 Pizza Hut had 2000 restaurants open. In 1977 they had 3,000 restaurants open and things were changing. Pan Pizza was introduced. Source: Pizza Hut 2015
  29. 29. Pizza Hut Time for Change In 1983 boundaries were coming down. Pizza Hut was expanding this time introducing delivery but in Australia. Source: Pizza Hut, 2015
  30. 30. Pizza Hut Kept Moving By 1986 Pizza Hut had 5000 units with the conversion to delivery only drove sales and profits, reduced time and cost to open new units and in 1988 6,000 units. Source: Pizza Hut, 2015
  31. 31. Pizza Hut Today 15,000 units with less than 50 full service sit down restaurants in the world. Source: Pizza Hut, 2015
  32. 32. Yum Brands Out-Sourced: Amazon Why Not?
  33. 33. Evolving Pizza Americans spend 37 billion a year on pizza Households eating frozen pizza dropped between 2010 - 2014, and the percentage of households that ate a lot of frozen pizza dropped 15% About 1 in 8 Americans eats pizza any given day Pre-teens eat about two times the national average 60 years old eat about half the national average More than ¼ boys between 6 and 19 eat pizza every day Girls between 6 and 19 eat more pizza than any category of guys Source: USDA, Packaged Facts
  34. 34. Things You Might Not Know The number one new food product launch in 2014 was Lunchables (Ready-2-Eat), Uploaded with 87% distribution and $143 Million in Sales. Fully 18% of Starbucks transactions in stores are done by Phone. Source: 2015 Fare Conference, IRI Summit 2015
  35. 35. SNAP Status Quo ONE QUESTION: Compelled to buy to Want to Buy? SNAP average transaction is $23 75% of SNAP participants have to spend their own money to buy food In 2005 , 25,628 participants in SNAP vs 46,537 in 2014 The SNAP shopper is moving from paper coupons to digital and online Source: USDA, IRI 2015 Summit
  36. 36. Price, Value, Service Equilibrium Consumers are resetting the Price, Value, Service Equilibrium. Here is Foodservice Solutions® formula: (Mobile Access + Digital Payment +Delivery) X (Price + Food Quality + Speed) = Value Incremental Value: Constantly Changing Menu (Seasonally / Sustainability with Creditability). Source: Foodservice Solutions®, 2014
  37. 37. Attribute Outlet # 1216 Parking Lot Food Visual Appeal Smell Oder Aroma Customers Like Me Temperature Taste Restaurants QSR, FC, C, FS, Fine 178 8.5% 7.1% 9.1% 9.5% 9.6% C-Stores 7-Eleven, Sheetz, QC, Wawa, Rutter’s etc. 369 7.8% 6.2% 8.8% 7.4% 9.5% Grocery Wal-Mart, Publix, Aldi WinCo, Safeway, Whole Foods etc. 550 4.7% 5.1% 6.2% 7.5% 6.1% Drug & Liquor Pinkies, Duane Reade, Rite-Aid, Walgreens etc. 48 6.8% 8.2% 8.4% 8.5% 8.8% Non-Traditional Nordstrom’s, Food Trucks, Hello Fresh etc. 71 NA NA NA 9.6% 9.7% Grocerant Scorecard
  38. 38. Grocerant Scorecard Attribute Outlet # 1216 Price Delivery Catering Digital Payment In Store POP Restaurants QSR, FC, C, FS, Fine 178 7.4% 9.4% 7.6% NA 9.5% C-Stores 7-Eleven, Sheetz, QC, Wawa, Rutter’s etc. 369 8.9% 5.4% 3.8% NA 7.9% Grocery Wal-Mart, Publix, Aldi WinCo, Safeway, Whole Foods etc. 550 6.4% 6.5% 4.4% NA 1.1% Drug & Liquor Pinkies, Duane Reade, Rite-Aid, Walgreens etc. 48 9.0% 9.1% 6.64% NA 3.5% Non-Traditional Nordstrom’s, Food Trucks, Hello Fresh etc. 71 NA 9.6% 2.7% NA 2.1%
  39. 39. Grocerant Scorecard Attribute Outlet # 1216 Digital Menu’s Staff Well Groomed Speed at Breakfast Speed at Lunch Speed At Dinner Restaurants QSR, FC, C, FS, Fine 178 8.5% 7.1% 9.1% 9.5% 9.6% C-Stores 7-Eleven, Sheetz, QC, Wawa, Rutter’s etc. 369 7.8% 6.2% 8.8% 7.4% 9.5% Grocery Wal-Mart, Publix, Aldi WinCo, Safeway, Whole Foods etc. 550 4.7% 5.1% 6.2% 7.5% 6.1% Drug & Liquor Pinkies, Duane Reade, Rite-Aid, Walgreens etc. 48 6.8% 8.2% 8.4% 8.5% 8.8% Non-Traditional Nordstrom’s, Food Trucks, Hello Fresh etc. 71 NA NA NA 9.6% 9.7%
  40. 40. Positioning Choice Retailers have 4 options: Different, Better, Cheaper, or Not Around Much Longer. Source: Foodservice Solutions®
  41. 41. Portability Success Leaders
  42. 42. The Face of Fresh Source: Willard Bishop, Technomic
  43. 43. Funding Food In 2014 $2.36 billion was raised to fund 264 Food Start-Up’s. Hello Fresh IPO Priced at $2.9 Billion Plated, Munchery, FoodPanda, Lish, Peachd, SpoonRocket, Eat24, GrubHub, Postmates Source: Venture Capital Form, Food + Tech Connect
  44. 44. Eatzi’s – Niche Pioneer
  45. 45. Rutter’s – Steps to Success MIX & MATCH LUNCH & DINNER
  46. 46. Pantry Busters Source: NACS SQUARE ONE MARKETS SIX ’O’ CLOCK SCRAMBLE
  47. 47. Whole Foods Is Fresh Food
  48. 48. Safeway
  49. 49. Walgreens Café W Plus
  50. 50. Walgreens Fresh & Fast
  51. 51. Summary Consumers take advantage of options Grocery channel shopping frequency continues to decline Value retailers posting penetration & frequency gains Everyone purchases in multiple channels Consumer trends can drive growth
  52. 52. Summary RETAILERS Competition is going after your shoppers & their shopping trips Invest dollars to re-invent yourselves! Grocerant Fresh Format is on top of key consumer trends MANUFACTURERS Capitalize on channel shopping retailer diversity through expanded distribution If you don’t, a competitor will!
  53. 53. Summary Price = Transparency Time is the True Commodity Customer Outcomes are more Important than Products Fresh Food Fast is the Difference Between Profitable Differentiation & Commodity Competition
  54. 54. Grocerant Guru™ Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru™ Foodservice Solutions® Tacoma, WA 253.759.7869 www.FoodserviceSolutions.us THE GROCERANT NICHE Fresh Prepared Ready-2-Eat Heat-N-Eat “ITS ABOUT TIME”

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