Mobile Internet is Bigger than
most Think it is. Jason Grigsby • SAO Dec 2009 @grigs on Twitter • jason@cloudfour.com cloudfour.com • mobileportand.com

Mobile is the Technology that
Cried Wolf. Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/

Mobile is the Technology that
Cried Wolf. (for 15 years) Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/

“The Mother of all Markets.”
Dr. Eli Harai, San Disk CEO, 2008 John Sculley, Apple CEO, 1992 http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE5D9143AF93AA25754C0A964958260

The Hope for Mobile What
is the likelihood of exponential growth for the Internet on Mobile Devices?

!"#$%&'()*&+)&*',-*./0&1'2&13*".'()*&+)&*'45".*$") $67")&'8'$9"-07':1&+1';'<='4,>':1&+1'?'@-/+*&+1'4A*&+'>/-)07 3<7=4/1>13?=+571G0H1@??1A=5=B=13CB=A/1G0H1DE61G0H1@/.05,F/1I0/-0 J3-0.1#"1(+,-./-012345/16,+457 M&)::
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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

Opera Mini Traffic Increases Usage
up 157% year-over-year http://www.opera.com/media/smw/

4.0 Billion Mobile phone for
half the planet. Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

4 Billion in Perspective 4
4B 3 2 1.2B 1.3B 1.4B 1.5B 1.2B 0.85B 0.95B 1 Cars PCs Landlines Email 0 Internet TVs Credit Cards Mobile Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.html http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html http://www.communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/12/trillion-with-a.html

2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion
Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion
•Box Office •DVD Sales & Rentals Combined •Music Industry •Video Games Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

!"#$%&'()*+,-$%./0"$%1232/*"3+4*+/4 5"6)/"$742-"$83+/*+&,$9+2$:"**"3$;3&/"44+,-$;&#"3$<$='(3&>"6$74"3$=,*"3?2/"$<$ @'200"3$8&3'$82/*&3$<$A&#"3$;3+/"4$<$BC(2,6"6$@"3>+/"4$D$EFC$G&3"$H">+/"4 !%+*1)R5#1 -%&'()"#C1J+%U)R1.+">*+/1V>*+1T"&*K1789:1W
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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

!"#$%&'(")*+,-./0(*%-12/"%-3'&)%-('-40/56-7&6&,-8/6-9/(#% :- 4;%$&)%-<%**-12/"%-:-=>?-9/(#%@(12/"% :-AB?-9/(#% G(#)H&E5(D%&J=%(KL"M;N&,&"O&P#8%&1Q%;<&";&-($?&B$<#C#<H
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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

56 million http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/shoot-is-iphone.html#c148364123 devices 115,014
http://www.newsweek.com/id/174266 apps > 2 billion http://businessweek.com/@@0M43kIYQYKPISw0A/technology/content/sep2008/tc20080930_257832.htm downloads

Gold Rush was On

Source: http://gizmodo.com/5199933/giz-explains-all-the-smartphone-mobile-app-stores

Ringtone Apps
http://twitter.com/justin/status/1210786170
http://furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/
http://furbo.org/2009/02/16/raising-prices/

Ringtone Apps 40000 30000 20000
10000 0 0 .99 1.99 2.99 3.99 4.99 5.99 6.99 7.99 8.99 9.99 10.99 11.99 12.99 13.99 14.99 15.99+ http://148apps.biz/app-store-metrics/?mpage=appprice

Brutally Honest iPhone App Sales:
$32k Spent vs. $535 Revenue Dapple http://www.streamingcolour.com/blog/2009/03/09/the-numbers-post-aka-brutal-honesty/

Throwaway Apps
http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

Throwaway Apps
http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

Pinch Media’s Conclusions •Users stop
using the average applications quickly. •Long-term audiences are generally 1% of total downloads •Paid apps retain users longer, but still steep drop off. •Difficult to make enough money from a free application based on advertising revenue http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

Success Determined by Top Lists
& Features http://appcubby.com/blog/files/financial_realities.html

115,000 Apps
&
Findability?
http://148apps.com/10000

More Open ≠ No Gatekeeper
96% Approved (what about that 4%?)

Some Rejected Applications • Obama
Trampoline • MyShoe • I Am Poor • The South Park App • Pull My Finger • iBoobs • Slasher • Murderdome • Podcaster • Freedom Time • Google Voice • iSinglePayer "Even though my personal political leanings are Democratic, I think this app will be offensive to roughly half our customers. What's the point?" — Steve Jobs http://www.pcworld.com/article/159887-2/rejected_10_iphone_apps_that_didnt_make_apples_app_store.html

http://www.pcworld.com/article/159887-2/rejected_10_iphone_apps_that_didnt_make_apples_app_store.html

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/the-hundred-million-dollar-mobile-app-question/

iPhone Only Part of World
Wide Market Symbian RIM iPhone Microsoft Android Others 20000 19107 15000 10000 8521 7363 5000 3631 1455 0 1316 Q3 2009 Smartphone Sales — Thousands of Units http://www.canalys.com/pr/2009/r2009112.htm

iPhone Only Part of US
Market RIM Apple HTC Palm Nokia Samsung Others 1% 4% 2% 5% 6% 52% 30% Q3 2009 Smartphone Market Share Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

Symbian Windows Mobile Objective C
WebOS C Java ME Dalvik Palm Visual Basic C++ .NET Compact BREW Flickr photo by André-Batista: http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=408700622&size=o

Google Mobile — App Challenges
• Pressure from CEO for rapid releases • 10+ platforms to support • Over 100 different builds http://www.flickr.com/photos/83731031@N00/445924458/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/mcdave/142758127/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/nataliejohnson/290541732/

!"#$%&'&()*+)#'",*- ."/'0$*+1"/02&%*3*4",015#02&% 6"7*+&89/%2",*:;0"%*.2%*<2(*2%*6"7*+)#'",*.$2'"*=%#58>"%0,*:;0"% ?/'0"1 !"#$%&"'(
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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

!"##$%&'()'*+,-'.$/'01,2$'3)4$#'0%$+4$'5(%$'5+%6$4' 0+7"4+2"8+4"(#'4-+#'!"##$%&'()'9%"(%'01,2$& 49:9;.2<=13-./01234.5<2.;<>.2<?@3?A3B?53'34?:592<@C3 4?:5.@<1D3A/?:3E.FG34?:592<@C34HF;1#3!,%&3I &"",JBK
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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

Apps are Just the Tip
of the Iceberg • Small & medium businesses will be impacted by mobile, but haven’t yet. • Can people find their locations, information on mobile? • Enterprise barely begun — access to Intranet content • Mobile search = mobile search optimization • What about Google Maps? How to make sure you show up? • Mobile advertising campaigns and planning

Tips for Your Mobile Strategy

Consider Whole Mobile Strategy What
happens if they don’t have your app?

The App Store is Not
Your Marketing Strategy

What is Your Recurring Revenue
Plan? http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/

Know Your Demographics Blackberry has
Emerging markets 40% 80% global enterprise of worldwide mobile market. MMS traffic.

BMW Turned $70k MMS into
$45M Revenue

Plan for Mobile Context personal
permanently carried always on built-in payment channel creative impulse social context location aware accurate audience measurement

http://mobileportland.com

Thank You for Your Time!
http://cloudfour.com/blog • Twitter: @grigs Mobile Portland: http://mobileportland.com Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

Backup Slides

!"#$%&'()*&+)&*',-&+.*$)/'012*&3'4"3-&*$*$5&'6.)728.-&'9 :+"#.#$%$*1;<&$/=*&7'08&).+$"2'>?@@A;?@B?CD !""#$%&'()*(+$,%)'%-.*(%/.)$0*.#%/.01$)% 23.0$4%!(50'*5%-.*(, !"#$%&'()*#+,-),.%,/*+0+"..(),%"(.+1"%2+"32(.*+*4($5$%*'6+
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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

!"#$%&'(")*+,-&'.'/"0*&0*'12"343*&5'6 7$8&%4'*"'9&2"5&'!"-&':;&0'"<&-'=$5& !"##$%&'"(%$) !"##$%&'"(%$)&** +),"##$%&'"(%$)-
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ource: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html