Mobile: The Market, The Web and Windows Phone’s Future


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Mobile: The Market, The Web and Windows Phone’s Future

  1. 1. The Market, The Web andWindows Phone’s Future | Jason Grigsby
  2. 2. Twitter: @grigs Tonight: @grigs_talks Slides: Email: Web:
  3. 3. Get a lot of email from this guy...
  4. 4. Mobile is Disruptive Technology Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0
  5. 5. !"#$%&()*&+)&*,-*./0&12&13*".()*&+)&*45".*$") $67")&8$9"-07:1&+1;<=4,>:1&+1?@-/+*&+14A*&+>/-)07 3<7=4/1>13?=+571G0H1@??1A=5=B=13CB=A/1G0H1DE61G0H1@/.05,F/1I0/-0 J3-0.1#"1(+,-./-012345/16,+457 M&):: " ,&-./"()*%"+*"% !"#$%&()*%"+*"% 3<7=4/1>13?=+57 @/.05,F/K &" 6,+457/A1L") 6,+457/A1!#L*% %" 2+805-38/-019::; M#&:: ,&-./"()*%"+*"% $" @??1A=5=B=13CB=A/ 6,+457/A1L** #" M!!:: !"#$%&()*%"+*"% !" DE6K M):: G1#H"16,+457/A1*L*% (! ($ (& () (* (!! (!$ (!& (!) (!* (+,-./-012345/16,+457 3<7=4/1>13?=+57 @??1A=5=B=13CB=A/ DE6 @/.05,F/ !"#$%&()*&+,-+./0-$/+&12#2&3"#&242052-5$&-$6"/$&789%:;<&!$#+.2=$&,+$/+&50>0#$1&#"&?@&"35AB&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.F&$+#0>2#$+& 26 G9:CC&3$#-""H+&F24$&+F0==$1&03&60/+#&$0DF#&I,2/#$/+&+03.$&52,3.F JKLMLNOB&@",/.$%&7">=23A&E$="/#+&P&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.FBSource:
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  7. 7. 5.2 Billion Mobile phone for nearly everyone on the planet.Flickr photo by Pingnews:
  8. 8. 2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion •Box Office •DVD Sales & Rentals Combined •Music Industry •Video GamesFlickr photo by Vlastula:
  9. 9. !"#$%&&()*+)#",*- ."/0$*+1"/02&%*3*4",015#02&%6"7*+&89/%2",*:;0"%*.2%*<2(*2%*6"7*+)#",*.$2"*=%#58>"%0,*:;0"% ?/0"1 !"#$%&"( !#$# )(&*+$", -(*./+012$/(&$(/ !+3#,(12$/(&$(/ !"#$%&() !"#$%&() !"#$%&() !"#$%&() !"#$%&() *+,-. *+1-. *+/-. *++-. 0---. 234 234 234 234 5((36. 5((36. 5((36. 5((36. ;E7 A)&?<:@B%$#3(& 786"."9&: C"")<3: 2!P A?&?:C3(36?< !.8": =>D: !"(&6"<:A?&? RS ;(&3<: 3E?F: U$366F S6#3 =$$<3: G?H""I: R"(3F43<< !"#$%&36T."( >6?8<3: G?H""I:J?$?( E%66"%)H. 5?():D?N. @7! =#?K"(L8"# A3<<: M3(83(& !"#$?B =<N?N? E?O% P?Q%&3( !"#$%&())$*+&,*"-&./01+&#"&./21+&34+$5&")&6"*#7)$&011&*4)8()9+&:*$;$)7$<34+$5=>&5$+8#"?&@)#$*)$#&A())$*+&34+$5&")& 16 A$4B#C&D*$4#$5&,*"-&.//0&#"&*$+?$D#(;$&?$48&-4*8$#&D4?(#4B(E4#(")+F&G"7*D$%&64D#G$#>&6"*#7)$>&H"*94)&G#4)B$I&J$+$4*DCFSource:
  10. 10. | Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0
  12. 12. You know the story.You’ve heard it before.
  13. 13. We’ve been here before...
  14. 14. and it wasn’t pretty.
  15. 15. Creative Commons
  16. 16. iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market Android Symbian iPhone RIM Windows Other 4% 3% 13% 36% 17% 27% Android 36%, iPhone 17% in Q2 2011
  17. 17. U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Feb 2011 Android iPhone RIM Windows Palm Others 2.4% 5.8% 2% 38.1% 24.7% 26.6% comScore_Reports_May_2011_U.S._Mobile_Subscriber_Market_Share
  18. 18. Know Your Demographics Blackberry has Emerging markets40% 80%global enterprise of worldwide mobile market. MMS traffic.
  19. 19. Know Your Geography Blackberry has Sharp sells 37% 80% Latin America of its phones insmartphone market. Japan, leads market. Most popular phone for youth in Brazil is Blackberry. Blackberry Messenger is Addictive. Network Effects. Source:
  20. 20. Why compare mobile to the PC market?
  21. 21. Windows 8 will boost WP7Help familiarize and validate the Metro UI
  22. 22. What are your customers using? Ask ThemUse Mobile Analytics
  23. 23. Mobile’s Eight Unique Abilities |
  24. 24. PERSONAL 63% do not share phone
  25. 25. ~50% of US admit to sleeping with phonePERMANENTLYCARRIED
  26. 26. ALWAYS ON
  32. 32. Question Group Think
  33. 33. Do Apps CreatePlatform Lock-in?If youve bought $200 worth ofapplications for yoursmartphone, youre much lesslikely to switch to a differentmodel in the future.In short, high spending onsmartphone apps ensures long-term platform loyalty.
  34. 34. Do Apps REALLY Create Platform Lock-in? App Cost Twitter for iPhone Free Reeder $2.99 Instapaper $4.99 Facebook Free 1Password $9.99 Total $17.97 Switching Costs are Lower
  35. 35. Are App Stores Essential to a Platform’s Success?
  36. 36. 1. Android Has Horrible App Store2. Needs to improve App Store to Compete 3. Oh Wait... NevermindAndroid RIM iPhone Windows Palm Others 2.8% 7.7% 2% 33.0% 25.2% 28.9% comScore_Reports_November_2010_U.S._Mobile_Subscriber_Market_Share
  37. 37.
  38. 38. Unlimited Voice, Text and Web for $40/mo.
  39. 39. 81% of iPhone owners have household incomesgreater than the U.S. median household income
  40. 40. Cheaper iPhone Will Be a Big Deal (I think. Remember I don’t know either!)The analyst says Cook “appeared to reaffirmthe notion that Apple is likely to develop lowerpriced offerings” to expand the market for theiPhone. Cook said the company is planning“clever things” to address the prepaid market,and that Apple did not want its products to be“just for the rich,” and that the company is “notceding any market.”
  41. 41. Native vs Web
  42. 42. Why are we fighting?
  43. 43. “We have been trying to come up with a solution to letdevelopers write applications, yet keep the iPhone secure andsafe. We’ve come up with a sweet solution.”
  44. 44. Web Developers Web Developers Mac DevelopersMac DevelopersWeb Developers Mac Developers
  45. 45. Web aDevelopers “That is bold idea. Very forward thinking... This is the coming out party for web apps. We are veryMacexcited about this. These are Developers exciting times.” — Jason Fried, 37signals
  46. 46. “Perhaps it’s playing well in themainstream press, but here at WWDC,Apple’s “you can write great apps for the Mac DevelopersiPhone: they’re called ‘web sites’” —message went over like a lead balloon. Web DevelopersIf all you have to offer is a shit sandwich,just say it. Don’t tell us how lucky we areand that it’s going to taste delicious.” — Jon Gruber, Daring Fireball
  47. 47. Flickr photo by Civisi: Web 2.0 iPhone App Store Web-based Apps Native AppsServices & Mashups Few APIs between appsSoftware as Service No Recurring Revenue Cloud Computing Local Storage
  48. 48. Surprise Story of 2008Flickr photo by Drift Words:
  49. 49. CHALLENGE:Find a single report that doesn’t show exponential growth for mobile web.
  50. 50.
  51. 51. Native Mobile Apps vs.Mobile Web Apps
  52. 52. Native Mobile Apps vs. Mobile Web AppsMobile is Bigger than Just Apps
  53. 53. A mobile website for every iPhone app.
  54. 54. Let me share our secret for selling mobile web.
  55. 55. Email Gallery Free Email Templates Email Marketing Companies Submit Advertise Here Advertise HereColumn Type of Email Type of Business Color POPULARITY RESETHyundai USA Newsletter 3 Alertful Newsletter 2 Divine Chocolate Newsletter 2 Does your company send email to customers?
  56. 56. Does your company participate in social media?
  57. 57. Links don’t open apps
  58. 58. Only21%of Google’s largest advertisers have mobile web sites. Why?
  59. 59. BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR MOBILE WEB: Many Sites are Chaos Behind the Scenes
  60. 60. Multiple Systems Taped Together
  61. 61. Our existing systems areanchors holding us back.
  62. 62. Native Developers Start from a Clean Slate
  64. 64. Features of New Platforms Integrated image resizing Video conversion and resizing Separation of content from markup so content can be used in native appsPrioritization of content based on context Full-featured APIs Synchronization New Ways to Enable Content Editors
  65. 65. What does WYSIWYGmean to multiple devices? WYSIWTF
  66. 66.
  67. 67.
  68. 68.
  69. 69. One Possible Bridging[productID] Desktop Web Internet Redirect Internet Page products/[productID] Desktop Mobile Device Class Template A Device Class Template B Desktop or MobileFour Cloud Web Desktop Mobile Mobile Web Server w/ RWD Web Server Server Platform Device Class Template C Device Class Template D Web Services APIs APIs Necessary to Support App Development
  70. 70. Something wecan all agree on Mobile Testing SUCKS!
  71. 71. Even Most Successful Developers Facethe Challenge of Testing on Enough Devices From the beginning, we have wanted to make Angry Birds available for every feasible Android device... We tested the game extensively on a large number of devices, and gathered all the feedback we received from our beta testing to address every possible issue. So far, we have hesitated to create multiple versions of Angry Birds for the Android platform. But judging by the feedback we have received, we feel that by providing a lightweight solution, we are doing a favour for our fans.,cntnt01,showentry, 0&cntnt01entryid=47&cntnt01returnid=58
  72. 72. No. ARTICLES TOPICS ABOUT CONTACT CONTRIBUTE FEED320 DECEMBER 14, 2010 Search ALA Smartphone Browser Landscape include discussions by P E T E R - P A U L K O C H Published in: User Interface Design , Mobile , Mobile Design , Mobile Development Topics Discuss this article » | Share this article » Code Content Culture Design Mobile Process User Science Snapshot Most web designers and developers (not to mention the entire blogosphere) fall squarely in the high-end market. A cultural bias Users expect websites to work on their mobile phones. In two to three years, mobile support exists against OSs aimed will become standard for any site. Web developers must add mobile web development to their at any other market. As skill set or risk losing clients. a result, most people focus on the struggle How do you make websites mobile compatible? The answer is obvious: By testing them on all between iOS and mobile phones, and by solving the problems you encounter. But, that’s a useless answer. It’s Android, and ignore the rest. This has to change. impossible to test your designs on every mobile phone out there. Within the mobile phone landscape, there are at least ten operating systems (OSs) and fifteen browsers that require consideration. Mobile devices are expensive, and not every web developer can afford to buy five to ten of them. Testing “on all mobile phones” is impossible for most web developers. In this article, I’ll give you an overview of the mobile web market, as well as phone platforms and their browsers, so that you can decide which mobile devices to test on. Then, we’ll look at how to set up a mobile test bed. Stay in better touch with customers with
  73. 73. “Testing on as many devices as possible is a greatidea in theory, but in practice it is untenable. Even if webuy a few devices to try to cover more ground, they will beoutdated in just a few months or a year at most. So are wesupposed to buy multiple devices per year?”posted at 11:32 am on December 14, 2010 by klayon“If that’s the mobile landscape, I want no part of it.”posted at 07:22 am on December 15, 2010 by Polsonby
  74. 74. Mobile Portland Community Device Lab • Dedicated location within mobile community in central, downtown Portland. • Adjacent event space to be used for hosting Mobile Portland events and other user groups. Also available for developer training sessions. • Free and open to anyone. Run as a non-profit. Building Lobby • Located in 25,000 sq. ft. building leased by VC-funded mobile start up Urban Airship • Other tenants in building include mobile developers Cloud Four, Uncorked Studios and Bank Simple. • We’re creating a central hub for mobile activity in the Portland area. The building is alreadyDevice Lab Glass Office becoming a magnet for mobile developers.
  75. 75. | | @grigs | slides: