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Отчет "Римского клуба" за 50 лет существования и прогнозы развития

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Отчет "Римского клуба" за 50 лет существования и прогнозы развития _всего человечества_

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Отчет "Римского клуба" за 50 лет существования и прогнозы развития

  1. 1. Ernst Ulrich vonWeizsäcker AndersWijkman Come On!Capitalism, Short-termism, Population and the Destruction of the Planet – A Report to the Club of Rome Prepared for the Club of Rome’s 50th Anniversary in 2018
  2. 2. Come On!
  3. 3. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker  •  Anders Wijkman Come On! Capitalism, Short-termism, Population and the Destruction of the Planet A Report to the Club of Rome by Ernst von Weizsäcker and Anders Wijkman, co-authors in cooperation with 34 more Members of the Club of Rome prepared for the Club of Rome’s 50th Anniversary in 2018 Authors: Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker and Anders Wijkman, Co-Presidents, The Club of Rome. Contributors (alphabetical order): Carlos Alvarez Pereira, Nora Bateson, Mariana Bozesan, Susana Chacón,Yi Heng Cheng, Robert Costanza, Herman Daly, Holly Dressel, Lars Engelhard, Herbie Girardet, Maja Göpel, Heitor Gurgulino de Souza, Karlson “Charlie” Hargroves,Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Hans Herren, Kerryn Higgs, Garry Jacobs, Volker Jäger, Ashok Khosla, Gerhard Knies, David Korten, David Krieger, Ida Kubiszewski, Petra Künkel, Alexander Likhotal, Ulrich Loening, Hunter Lovins, Graeme Maxton, Gunter Pauli, Roberto Peccei, Mamphela Ramphele, Jørgen Randers, Kate Raworth, Alfred Ritter, Joan Rosàs Xicota, Peter Victor, Agni Vlavianos Arvanitis and Mathis Wackernagel (Club of Rome members in italics).
  4. 4. ISBN 978-1-4939-7418-4    ISBN 978-1-4939-7419-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4939-7419-1 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017952604 © Springer Science+Business Media LLC 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer Science+Business Media LLC The registered company address is: 233 Spring Street, New York, NY 10013, U.S.A. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker Emmendingen, Germany Anders Wijkman Stockholm, Sweden
  5. 5. v Preface In the years since its founding in 1968, there have been more than 40 reports to the Club of Rome. The first report, The Limits to Growth, catapulted the Club of Rome, and the authors of Limits, into the global limelight. The book served as a shock to a world as yet largely unaware of the long-term effects of continued growth in what we now call the human ecological footprint. Aurelio Peccei, founder and then presi- dent of the Club of Rome, saw the responsibility of addressing the suite of problems facing the world, what he called the predicament of mankind, but was astonished to learn from the Limits report that these problems could all be tied to the conse- quences of humankind’s desire for endless growth on a finite planet. The message from the bold young team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology was that if growth continued unabated at the present pace, shrinking resources and heavy pol- lution would lead to an ultimate collapse of world systems. Certainly, today’s computer models are much more advanced than the World3 model used by the 1972 team. Some aspects of economic growth during the almost five decades that have passed – like innovation – were not fully taken into account. But the central message of Limits is as valid today as it was in 1972. The world of today is facing many of the challenges that were anticipated in the 1970s: climate change, scarcity of fertile soils, and massive species extinction. Furthermore, the planetary social situation remains extremely unsatisfactory, with some four billion people living in very tenuous economic conditions or being threatened by natural disasters or wars. New estimates warn that more than 50 million people will be forced every year to leave their home and emigrate. Where can they go? In 2017, there are already 60 million refugees in the world! Simultaneously, however, modern societies have acquired an amount of eco- nomic wealth, scientific knowledge, and technological capacities that should enable to fund and implement most of the transformations that The Limits to Growth saw as paramount in terms of creating a sustainable world. We, the Executive Committee of the Club of Rome, gratefully acknowledge the merits and message of The Limits to Growth, as well as that of the other very valu- able reports that have been written to the Club of Rome. Moreover, we remember the bold step taken in 1991 by Alexander King, Aurelio Peccei’s successor as
  6. 6. vi president of the Club of Rome, who published The First Global Revolution, a book, coauthored by Bertrand Schneider, then the club’s secretary general. In contrast to other reports, The First Global Revolution was presented as a report by the Council of the Club of Rome (the equivalent to today’s Executive Committee of the Club of Rome). King and Schneider realized that the end of the Cold War opened huge new opportunities that could lead to a peaceful and prospering world. This optimistic book brought the Club of Rome back into the limelight, albeit less so than had The Limits to Growth. The world is again in a critical situation. We see the need for a bold new begin- ning. This time, however, we believe it is particularly important to look at the philo- sophical roots of the current state of the world. We must question the legitimacy of the ethos of materialistic selfishness that is currently the most powerful driving force in the world, and we welcome Pope Francis’s initiative in addressing a deeper- lying crisis of values, a central issue which the Club of Rome identified many years ago. The time has come, we believe, for a new Enlightenment or for otherwise overturning current habits of thought and action that only consider the short term. We acknowledge the strong approach taken by the United Nations in their 2015 formulation of the 2030 Agenda, comprising 17 Sustainable Development Goals to be implemented over the next 15 years. However, unless the destructive driving forces of purely materialistic economic growth are tamed, we cannot escape the fear that 15 years from now the world will be in an even harsher ecological situation than it is today. From this perspective, the committee wholeheartedly supports the initiative taken by our current copresidents in composing and coordinating a new and ambi- tious report that addresses the predicament of humankind from the perspective of today’s realities. And now, a word of explanation for the surprising title. “Come on” has several different meanings in the English language. In casual language, it is often spelled “C’mon” and means “don’t try to fool me.” We consider this the meaning for Chaps. 1 and 2 of the book. We don’t want to be fooled by the usual descriptions of the state of the world and the usual, corresponding answers, which can make things worse, not better. And we don’t want to be fooled by outdated philosophies. Another mean- ing of the title is thoroughly optimistic: “Come on, join us!” This is the meaning for Chap. 3 of the book, which we consider an exciting journey of real solutions. Clearly, the architecture of the book comprises both meanings but in the indicated order. (To be sure, also some more meanings, including somewhat dirty ones, of “Come on” exist, but they have no relevance for us!) June 2017. The Executive Committee of the Club of Rome. Susana Chacón, Enrico Giovannini, Alexander Likhotal, Hunter L.  Lovins, Graeme Maxton, Sheila Murray, Roberto Peccei, Jørgen Randers, Reto Ringger, Joan Rosàs Xicota, Ernst von Weizsäcker, Anders Wijkman, and Ricardo Díez Hochleitner (Honorary Member). Preface
  7. 7. vii Executive Summary The human-dominated world can still have a prosperous future for all. This requires making sure that we do not continue to degrade our planet. We firmly believe this is possible, but it becomes increasingly difficult to achieve, the longer we wait to act appropriately. Current trends are in no way sustainable. Continued conventional growth leads to massive collisions with natural planetary boundaries. The economy under the dictates of the financial system with its seduction to speculation tends to lead to widening gaps in terms of wealth and income. World population must be stabilized soon, not just for environmental but also for compelling social and economic reasons. Many people see the world in a state of disarray, confusion, and uncertainty. Deep social inequalities, failed states, wars and civil wars, unemployment, and mass migrations have left hundreds of millions of people in a state of fear and despair. The United Nations has unanimously adopted the 2030 Agenda, which is meant to address these challenges. However, a successful implementation of the agenda’s 11 socioeconomic goals could more than likely destroy its three ecological goals, which are to stabilize the climate, restore the oceans, and halt biodiversity loss. The only way to avoid this to happen would be by adopting an integrated approach to policymaking, leaving behind today’s silo-based structures. Chapter 1 of this book offers a diagnosis of the non-sustainable trends of our time, of what has been termed the “Anthropocene” – the age of human domination of all aspects of this planet, including its biogeochemical composition. A “prosper- ous future for all” requires that economic well-being be largely decoupled from the destruction of natural resources, especially in agriculture, and the pollution of the atmosphere. The book suggests that the legitimacy of full national sovereignty must be questioned concerning all matters that affect the entire globe. Chapter 2 offers a deeper analysis, describing society’s fundamental philosophi- cal crisis at this juncture, starting with the encyclical letter Laudato Sí by Pope Francis. The foundations of today’s religions and common beliefs, as well as our system of economics, stem from a time of the “empty world” (Herman Daly) and are inappropriate for our current “full world.” Capitalism as we know it, with its
  8. 8. viii focus on short-term profit maximization, is moving us in the wrong direction – towards an increasingly destabilized climate and degraded ecosystems. In spite of all the knowledge we have today, we seem unable to change course, literally driving planet Earth to destruction. Ultimately, Chap. 2 suggests the need of a new Enlightenment, one that is fitting for the “full world” and for sustainable develop- ment. That enlightenment should embrace the virtues of balance instead of doc- trine. We explicitly mention the balance between humans and nature, between short term and long term, and between public and private interests. Chapter 2 can be seen as the most revolutionary part of the book. Can the planet’s beleaguered natural systems wait until all of human civilization has gone through the long process of a new Enlightenment? No, explains Chap. 3; we must act now. This is absolutely doable. We list an optimistic if slightly haphaz- ard collection of opportunities that already exist: decentralized clean energy, sus- tainable jobs in every type of country, and a massive decoupling of human well-being from the use of fossil fuels, basic materials, and scarce minerals. Pragmatic policies including on the financial system are featured. Frame conditions must make sus- tainable technologies truly profitable and encourage investors to support long-term solutions. The book closes with an invitation to readers and discussants to engage them- selves in the many possible ways of creating a sustainable world society. Executive Summary
  9. 9. ix Acknowledgments This report is a multi-contributor book. We as lead authors very gratefully acknowl- edge the excellent contributions received, in draft form, from Nora Bateson (parts of Sect. 2.7), Mariana Bozesan (Sect. 3.13), Yi Heng Cheng (Sect. 3.17), Herman Daly (Sects. 1.12 and 2.6.2), Lars Engelhard (parts of Sect. 3.13), Herbie Girardet (Sects. 1.7.2 and 3.6), Maja Göpel (Sect. 1.1 and linking sections between the three chapters), Garry Jacobs and Heitor Gurgulino de Souza (Sects. 2.8 and 3.18), Volker Jäger and Christian Felber (Sect. 3.12.4) Karlson “Charlie” Hargroves (Sect. 3.9), Yoshitsugu Hayashi (Sect. 3.6.3), Hans Herren (Sects. 1.8 and 3.5), Kerryn Higgs (Sects. 1.9 and 3.11 and several other pieces), Ashok Khosla (Sect. 3.2), Gerhard Knies (Sect. 3.16.3), David Korten (Sect. 2.2), David Krieger (Sect. 1.6.2), Ida Kubiszewski and Robert Costanza (Sect. 3.14 and part of Sect. 1.12), Petra Künkel (Sect. 3.15), Ulrich Loening (essential comments on Sects. 2.6 and 2.7), Hunter Lovins (Sect. 3.1 and parts of Sects. 1.6 and 3.4), Graeme Maxton (Sects. 2.5 and 3.12.2), Gunter Pauli (Sect. 3.3), Roberto Peccei (Preface, Chap. 1, and structure), Jørgen Randers (Sects. 2.5 and 3.12.2), Kate Raworth (Sect. 3.12.1), Alfred Ritter (part of Sect. 3.5), Joan Rosàs Xicota (essential comments on Sects. 1.1.2 and 3.11), Agni Vlavianos Arvanitis (part of Sect. 3.6), and Mathis Wackernagel (part of Sect. 1.10). In all cases, we as authors applied modifications with a view of making the book coherent in substance and style. But without the valuable contributions, we would have been at a loss. Kerryn Higgs, Mamphela Ramphele, Jørgen Randers, Alexander Likhotal, Ulrich Loening, David Korten, Irene Schöne, Mathis Wackernagel, and Jakob von Weizsäcker went through the trouble of looking at the entire manuscript or at least major parts of it and greatly helped us discovering weaknesses and omissions. Susana Chacón and Peter Victor made very important oral comments during a pre- paratory meeting on the book in May 2016. Verena Hermelingmeier accompanied the authors throughout the process of writing and helped in formulating major pas- sages. Hans Kretschmer oversaw the quality of illustrations and where necessary secured printing permissions for them.
  10. 10. x Toward the end, we engaged Holly Dressel as the main language editor for the entire book. It turned out she did a lot more than language editors do. She became a true contributor making the text a lot more readable and attractive, offering new phrases, and finding good references. As authors, we are truly grateful to the members of the Executive Committee of the Club of Rome for accompanying and encouraging us in writing this book. We are also very grateful to our club memberAlfred Ritter for supporting the initia- tive of writing this ambitious work and for financing it to a large extent. We gratefully acknowledge additional financial support by the Robert Bosch Foundation. Emmendingen, Germany, and Stockholm, Sweden, June 2017 Ernst von Weizsäcker and Anders Wijkman, Copresidents of the Club of Rome Acknowledgments
  11. 11. xi Contents 1 C’mon! Don’t Tell Me the Current Trends Are Sustainable!������������   1 1.1 Introduction: The World in Disarray��������������������������������������������   1 1.1.1 Different Types of Crisis and a Feeling of Helplessness��������������������������������������������������������������   2 1.1.2 Financialization: A Phenomenon of Disarray����������������   7 1.1.3 Empty World Versus Full World������������������������������������   9 1.2 The Limits to Growth: How Relevant Was Its Message?��������������   11 1.3 Planetary Boundaries��������������������������������������������������������������������   14 1.4 The Anthropocene������������������������������������������������������������������������   16 1.5 The Climate Challenge����������������������������������������������������������������   17 1.5.1 We Need a ‘Crash Plan’ ������������������������������������������������   18 1.5.2 How to Deal with Overshoot?����������������������������������������   19 1.5.3 Why Not a Marshall Plan?��������������������������������������������   20 1.5.4 Has Humanity Already Missed the Chance to Meet the Climate Goals?��������������������������������������������   20 1.6 Other Disasters Ahead������������������������������������������������������������������   22 1.6.1 Technological Wildcards and Familiar Threats��������������   22 1.6.2 Nuclear Weapons: The Forgotten Threat������������������������   25 1.7 Unsustainable Population Growth and Urbanization ������������������   27 1.7.1 Population Dynamics ����������������������������������������������������   27 1.7.2 Urbanization������������������������������������������������������������������   30 1.8 Unsustainable Agriculture and Food Systems������������������������������   32 1.9 Trade Versus Environment������������������������������������������������������������   35 1.10 The 2030 Agenda: The Devil Is in Implementation ��������������������   38 1.11 Do We Like Disruptions? The Case of the  Digital Revolution������������������������������������������������������������������������   44 1.11.1 Disruptive Technologies: The New Hype����������������������   44 1.11.2 Digitization Is the Buzzword of Our Time��������������������   45 1.11.3 Scary ‘Singularity’ and ‘Exponential Technologies’ ����   47 1.11.4 Jobs��������������������������������������������������������������������������������   49
  12. 12. xii 1.12 From Empty World to Full World������������������������������������������������   50 1.12.1 The Impact of Physical Growth ������������������������������������   50 1.12.2 The GDP Fallacy: Physical Impacts Ignored����������������   53 1.12.3 The GDP Fallacy Again: Treating Costs as If They Are Benefits��������������������������������������������������   55 Linking Chapters 1 and 2������������������������������������������������������������������������   56 References������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   58 2 C’mon! Don’t Stick to Outdated Philosophies!����������������������������������   63 2.1 Laudato Sí: The Pope Raises His Voice����������������������������������������   63 2.2 Change the Story, Change the Future������������������������������������������   66 2.3 1991: ‘The First Global Revolution’��������������������������������������������   67 2.4 Capitalism Got Arrogant��������������������������������������������������������������   69 2.5 The Failure of the Market Doctrine����������������������������������������������   71 2.6 Philosophical Errors of the Market Doctrine��������������������������������   75 2.6.1 Adam Smith, Prophet, Moralist, Enlightener����������������   76 2.6.2 David Ricardo, Capital Mobility and Comparative Versus Absolute Advantage��������������������������������������������   77 2.6.3 Charles Darwin Meant Local Competition, Not Global Trade������������������������������������������������������������   79 2.6.4 Reduce the Contrasts������������������������������������������������������   82 2.7 Reductionist Philosophy Is Shallow and Inadequate��������������������   83 2.7.1 Reductionist Philosophy������������������������������������������������   83 2.7.2 The Misuse of Technology��������������������������������������������   88 2.8 Gaps Between Theory, Education and Social Reality������������������   89 2.9 Tolerance and Long-Term Perspectives����������������������������������������   91 2.10 We May Need a New Enlightenment ������������������������������������������   92 2.10.1 New Enlightenment, Not Renewed Rationalism������������   92 2.10.2 Yin and Yang������������������������������������������������������������������   94 2.10.3 Philosophy of Balance, Not of Exclusion����������������������   95 Linking Chapters 2 and 3������������������������������������������������������������������������   97 References������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   99 3 Come On! Join Us on an Exciting Journey Towards a Sustainable World!����������������������������������������������������������������  101 3.1 A Regenerative Economy ������������������������������������������������������������������ 101 3.1.1 A New Narrative �������������������������������������������������������������������� 101 3.1.2 Natural Capitalism: Arc of Transition������������������������������������ 103 3.1.3 Redesign Everything�������������������������������������������������������������� 104 3.1.4 Regenerative Management������������������������������������������������������ 104 3.2 Development Alternatives������������������������������������������������������������������ 108 3.3 The Blue Economy ���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 113 3.3.1 Core Principles������������������������������������������������������������������������ 115 3.3.2 Coffee Chemistry and Edible Mushrooms������������������������������ 115 3.3.3 Designing Biorefineries and Thistles in Sardinia������������������� 116 3.3.4 3D Sea Farming and Fishing with Air Bubbles���������������������� 117 Contents
  13. 13. xiii 3.4 Decentralized Energy�������������������������������������������������������������������������� 117 3.5 Some Agricultural Success Stories ���������������������������������������������������� 123 3.5.1 General Lines of Sustainable Agriculture Policy�������������������� 123 3.5.2 Sustainable Farming in the Developing World ���������������������� 124 3.5.3 Developed World Contributions���������������������������������������������� 126 3.6 Regenerative Urbanization: Ecopolis�������������������������������������������������� 127 3.6.1 Ecopolis: Circular Resource Flows���������������������������������������� 127 3.6.2 Regenerative Cities ���������������������������������������������������������������� 129 3.6.3 Cities and Natural Disasters���������������������������������������������������� 130 3.6.4 Adelaide���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 131 3.6.5 Copenhagen���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 132 3.7 Climate: Some Good News, But Bigger Challenges�������������������������� 132 3.7.1 Good News������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 133 3.7.2 Addressing the Historic Debt and the ‘Carbon Budget’ Approach�������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 134 3.7.3 A Price on Carbon������������������������������������������������������������������ 136 3.7.4 Combatting Global Warming with a ‘Post-war Economy’���������������������������������������������������� 137 3.8 Circular Economy Requires a New Economic Logic������������������������ 140 3.8.1 The Economy Must Be Transformed�������������������������������������� 141 3.8.2 The Societal Benefits of Moving Towards a Circular Economy�������������������������������������������������� 142 3.9 Fivefold Resource Productivity���������������������������������������������������������� 144 3.9.1 Transport�������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 144 3.9.2 Resource-Efficient Buildings�������������������������������������������������� 146 3.9.3 Water Efficiency for the Farm������������������������������������������������ 147 3.10 Healthy Disruption������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 148 3.10.1 Thirty Years of Welcoming IT������������������������������������������������ 148 3.10.2 ‘A Good Disruption’ �������������������������������������������������������������� 149 3.10.3 And Now a Shocking Proposal: The Bit Tax�������������������������� 150 3.11 Reform of the Financial Sector���������������������������������������������������������� 152 3.11.1 Separate Commercial and Investment Banking���������������������� 153 3.11.2 Dealing with Debt������������������������������������������������������������������ 154 3.11.3 Control Money Creation: The Chicago Plan�������������������������� 155 3.11.4 Tax Financial Trading ������������������������������������������������������������ 156 3.11.5 Enhance Transparency������������������������������������������������������������ 156 3.11.6 Independent Regulators���������������������������������������������������������� 156 3.11.7 Taxing the Rich and Collecting the Tax���������������������������������� 156 3.11.8 Curbing the ‘Big Four’ Accounting Firms������������������������������ 157 3.12 Reform of the Economic Set-Up�������������������������������������������������������� 158 3.12.1 ‘Doughnut Economics’���������������������������������������������������������� 159 3.12.2 Reforms that May Find Majority Support������������������������������ 160 3.12.3 Making the Green Transition Ever More Profitable �������������� 162 3.12.4 Economy for the Common Good�������������������������������������������� 165 Contents
  14. 14. xiv 3.13 Benign Investment������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 167 3.13.1 From Wall Street to Philanthropy ������������������������������������������ 168 3.13.2 Ongoing Structural Changes�������������������������������������������������� 169 3.13.3 Impact Investing���������������������������������������������������������������������� 171 3.13.4 Becoming Mainstream Is Key������������������������������������������������ 172 3.13.5 Green Bonds, Crowdfunding and Fintech������������������������������ 173 3.14 Measuring Well-Being Rather than GDP�������������������������������������������� 175 3.14.1 Recent Work on Alternative Indicators���������������������������������� 175 3.14.2 Divergence Between GDP and GPI���������������������������������������� 179 3.14.3 Towards a Hybrid Approach �������������������������������������������������� 179 3.15 Civil Society, Social Capital and Collective Leadership�������������������� 181 3.15.1 Public Conversation: The Concept of Citizens’ Assemblies���������������������������������������������������������� 182 3.15.2 Building Up Social Capital: Multi-stakeholder Collaboration�������������������������������������������������������������������������� 183 3.15.3 A Case of Collective Leadership: The Common Code of the Coffee Community ������������������������������������������������������ 184 3.16 Global Governance ���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 186 3.16.1 Introduction: The UN System and Forward-Looking Ideas���������������������������������������������������� 186 3.16.2 Specific Tasks�������������������������������������������������������������������������� 188 3.16.3 COHAB: Cohabitation Mode of Nation States���������������������� 189 3.17 National-Level Action: China and Bhutan������������������������������������������ 191 3.17.1 China and Its 13th Five-Year Plan������������������������������������������ 192 3.17.2 Bhutan: The Gross National Happiness Index������������������������ 195 3.18 Education for a Sustainable Civilization�������������������������������������������� 196 References��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������  201 Conclusion: We Invite Readers to ‘Come on’����������������������������������������������  205 Praise for Come On!��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������  207 Index����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������  211 Contents
  15. 15. 1© Springer Science+Business Media LLC 2018 E.U. von Weizsäcker, A. Wijkman, Come On!, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4939-7419-1_1 Chapter 1 C’mon! Don’t Tell Me the Current Trends Are Sustainable! 1.1  Introduction: The World in Disarray We all know that the world is in crisis. Science tells us that almost half of the top soils on earth have been depleted in the last 150 years1 ; nearly 90% of fish stocks are either overfished or fully fished.2 Climate stability is in real danger (Sects. 1.5 and 3.7); and the earth is now in the sixth mass extinction period in history.3 Perhaps the most accurate account of the ecological situation is the 2012 ‘Imperative to act’,4 launched by all the 18 recipients (till 2012) of the Blue Planet Prize, including Gro Harlem Brundtland, James Hansen, Amory Lovins, James Lovelock and Susan Solomon. Its key message reads, ‘The human ability to do has vastly outstripped the ability to understand. As a result, civilization is faced with a perfect storm of problems, driven by overpopulation, overconsumption by the rich, the use of environmentally malign technologies and gross inequalities’. And further, ‘The rapidly deteriorating biophysical situation is barely recognized by a global society infected by the irrational belief that physical economies can grow forever’. 1  Arsenault (2014). 2  FAO (2016). 3  Kolbert (2014). 4  Blue Planet Prize Laureates (2012).
  16. 16. 2 1.1.1  Different Types of Crisis and a Feeling of Helplessness The crisis is not cyclical but growing. And it is not limited to the nature around us. There are also a social crisis, a political and a cultural crisis, a moral crisis, as well as a crisis of democracy, of ideologies and of the capitalist system. The crisis also consists of deepened poverty in many countries and the loss of jobs for a consider- able part of the population worldwide. Billions of people have reached a state of mind where they don’t trust their government anymore.5 Seen from a geographic point of view, symptoms of crisis are found nearly every- where. The ‘Arab Spring’ was followed by a series of wars and civil wars, serious human rights violations and many millions of refugees. The internal situation is not better in Eritrea, South Sudan, Somalia,Yemen or Honduras.Venezuela andArgentina, once among the richer states of the world, face huge economic challenges, and neigh- bouring Brazil has gone through many years of recession and political turmoil. Russia and several East European countries are struggling with major economic and political problems in their post-communist phase. Japan finds it difficult to overcome decade- long stagnation, and to deal with the 2011 tsunami and ensuing nuclear disaster. And the temporary economic upswing severalAfrican countries have enjoyed lost its dyna- mism as soon as the prices of mineral resources collapsed, and partly due to very unusual droughts. Land grabbing is plaguing much of Africa, but also other parts of the world, leading to involuntary dislocations of millions of people and the related problems with refugees both within countries and abroad.6 The response of governments has been concentrated, at worst, on managing their own political image, and at best to treat the symptoms of the crisis, not the cause. The problem is that the political class in the whole world is strongly influenced by investors and by powerful private companies. This indicates that the current crisis is also a crisis of global capitalism. Since the 1980s, capitalism has moved from furthering the economic development of countries, regions and the world towards maximizing profits, and then to a large extent profits from speculation. In addition, the capitalism unleashed since 1980 in theAnglo-Saxon world, and since 1990 worldwide, is mainly financial. This trend was supported by excessive deregulation and liberalization of the economy (see Sect. 2.4). The term ‘shareholder value’ popped up in the business pages of the media worldwide, as if that was now the new epiphany and guardrail for all economic action. In reality, it served to narrow business down to short-term gains, often at the expense of social and eco- logical values. The myth of shareholder value has been effectively debunked in a recent book by Lynn Stout.7 A different, if related, feature of ‘disarray’ is the rise of aggressive, mostly right-­ wing movements against globalization in OECD countries, often referred to as populism. These have become overt through Brexit and the Trump victory in the United States. As Fareed Zakaria observes, ‘Trump is part of a broad populist 5  The Edelman Trust Barometer (2017) says that 53% of the population in 28 countries believe the systems governing them are failing; only 15% deem that the systems are working. 6  Liberti (2013). 7  Stout (2012). 1  C’mon! Don’t Tell Me the Current Trends Are Sustainable!
  17. 17. 3 upsurge running through the Western world. … In most (countries), populism remains an opposition movement, although one that is growing in strength; in oth- ers, such as Hungary, it is now the reigning ideology’.8 This phenomenon of right-wing populism can be explained to an extent by the ‘trunk valley of the elephant curve’ (Fig. 1.1)9 showing the decline of developed-­ world middle classes, during a 20-year period. While more than half of the world’s population was enjoying over 60% income rises, OECD’s middle classes suffered losses caused mainly by the deindustrialization and job losses in major parts of the United States, Britain and other countries. In the United States, the median income increased by a meagre 1.2% since 1979. The stunning income growth on the left-hand side of the curve, the ‘back of the elephant’, lifting some two billion people out of poverty, was caused mainly by China’s and some other countries’ economic success. What remains invisible on the picture is the far end of ‘the trunk of the elephant’: The richest 1% of the world and, more revolting, the richest eight persons of the world now own as much wealth as 8  Zacharia (2016). 9  BrankoMilanovic.2016.https://milescorak.com/2016/05/18/the-winners-and-losers-of-globalization- branko-milanovics-new-book-on-inequality-answers-two-important-questions/ Source:TheAmericanProspect,usingdataprovidedbyBrankoMilanovic Poorest RichestPercentile of global income distribution 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 0 10 -10 20 30 40 50 60 Rising incomes in emerging economies, mainly China Decline of developed-world middle class 70 80 90 Real income growth (%) Blooming global elite Very poorest locked out of growth Fig. 1.1  Global income growth from 1988 to 2008 for 21 income groups from poorest to richest. The curve resembles the silhouette of an elephant and is referred to as ‘elephant curve’ (Source: http://prospect.org/article/worlds-inequality) 1.1 Introduction: The World in Disarray
  18. 18. 4 the poorest half of the world population combined, a figure publicized by Oxfam during the 2017 World Economic Forum.10 The ‘elephant curve’ gives an incomplete picture for a second reason. The Oxford PovertyandHumanDevelopmentInitiative(OPHI)hasproposedaMultidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) going beyond just income and including ten indicators around health, education and living standards. Using that MPI, OPHI counts 1.6 billion people living in ‘multidimensional poverty’ in 2016 – nearly twice as many as the number of people living in extreme poverty measured by income alone.11 Thirdly, the interpretation of the curve requires an analysis of the people in each percentile group. In fact, they tend to move. And the curve does not distinguish those in Russia and East European countries who lost much of their income after 1990 from those in Detroit or middle England who, for very different reasons, also were among the losers.12 Another fact cannot be seen in the picture: the massive shift of money and income from the manufacturing and trade sectors to the financial sector.13 Bruce Bartlett, a senior policy advisor to both the Reagan and Bush administrations, argues that this ‘financialization’ of the economy is the cause of income inequality, falling wages and the poor performance. David Stockman, Reagan’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, agrees, describing our current situation as ‘corrosive finan- cialization that has turned the economy into a giant casino since the 1970s’.14 Populist politicians in the OECD countries see themselves as speaking for the forgotten ‘ordinary’ people and for genuine patriotism, but they tend to fight and antagonize the people representing democratic institutions – what an irony! For the European Union (EU), the strongest trigger for populism has been the mil- lions of refugees who came or would like to come to Europe from the Near East, from Afghanistan and from Africa. Even the most generous European countries have reached their own assumed limits for receiving these masses of refugees. The EU institutions were too weak (not too powerful, as they are depicted by the new national- ists) to deal with the ‘refugee crisis’, resulting eventually in an identity crisis in the EU. Once a success story of an entity ensuring peace and economic development, the EU has lost some of its unifying narrative. The populist right-wing movements or par- ties see and criticize the EU as the culprit for all kinds of undesired events. The irony is that continuing the success story would require more, not less, powers for the Union. The Union should be entrusted with border protection, a well-funded common asylum and refugee policy to deal with the refugee crisis and maintain the advantages of the Schengen agreement. And for the re-­stabilization of the Euro, the EU or at least the Euro zone needs a common fiscal policy, as the new French President Emmanuel 10  https://www.oxfam.org. 2017-01-16. Just eight men own same wealth as half the world. The title of the study is “An economy for the 99 percent.” Data are based on the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Data book, 2016. See also Jamaldeen (2016). 11  OPHI (2017). See also Dugarova and Gülasan (2017). 12  For more details see Corlett (2016). 13  Greenwood and Scharfstein (2013). Authors say that in 1980, people working in the financial sector made about the same as people in other industries; By 2006 they made 70% more. 14  Bartlett (2013). Stockman (2013). 1  C’mon! Don’t Tell Me the Current Trends Are Sustainable!
  19. 19. 5 Macron is proposing. But it is these very measures of which nationalist populists are most afraid. The EU in its present form is not without shortcomings. Free market principles have come to dominate EU policymaking, leading to a subordination of other poli- cies, like environment. Notably the UK wanted that priority, as it preferred to see the EU chiefly as a union for mutual trade. And the austerity policies pursued have blocked many benign investments and led to unnecessary suffering among tens of millions of Europeans. Such shortcomings, however, should never be used to put in question the overall objectives of the EU – a union of peace, the rule of law, human rights, cultural understanding and sustainability. Addressing the global crisis of democracy, the German Bertelsmann Foundation has published a 3000-page empirical report on progress (or lack thereof) on democ- racy and a social market economy, as measured by the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI).15 Over the last few years, the report sees a consistent decay of such parameters as civil rights, free and fair elections, freedom of opinion and of press, freedom of assembly and separation of powers. Within the same time frame, the number of countries in which authoritarian, mostly religious, dogmas influence polit- ical decision making rose from 22% to 33%. That report was published before the assaults on democracy and civil rights that occurred in summer 2016 in Turkey or the Philippines. Symptoms of tyranny are spreading, including in some of the countries with a solid tradition of freedom and democracy.16 Let us briefly turn to a different kind of crisis. Well, not exactly a crisis but an unpleasant feature in an otherwise fruitful communication tool, the ‘social media’. Aside from being practical and useful for everyday arrangements and exchange of news and reasonable opinions, social media also have become vehicles for enhanc- ing conflicts and vilification of mostly innocent individuals, and for spreading ‘post truth’ nonsense. Much of the contents of social media political conversation is self-­ enhancing political rubbish, as those media serve as ‘echo chambers’ for networks of like-minded frustrated citizens.17 An empirical study from China found that anger and indignation are the emotions that are most likely to get viral in the social media, meaning they are multiplied faster and stronger than other emotions.18 The Internet and the social media are also vehicles for ‘bots’ (short for robots) that can disrupt or destroy messages, multiply nonsense and create all kinds of mischief. There are dozens of types of malicious bots (and botnets) to harvest email addresses, to grab content of websites and reuse it without permission, to spread viruses and worms, to buy up good seats for entertainment events, to increase views forYouTube videos or to increase traffic counts in order to extract money from advertisers. A more frightening cause of disarray relates to terrorism. In earlier times, human- ity’s violent conflicts occurred mostly between different countries. In recent times, 15  Bertelsmann Stiftung. 2016. (Lead author: Sabine Donner) Politische und soziale Spannungen nehmen weltweit zu. Executive Summary. Transformationsindex der Bertelsmann Stiftung. Gütersloh. 16  Snyder (2017). 17  Quattrociocchi et al. (2016). 18  Fan et al. (2014). 1.1 Introduction: The World in Disarray
  20. 20. 6 systemic and at least partly religious conflicts prevail, using terror attacks with the explicit intention of making people feel insecure. During much of the twentieth century, religions remained quiet, non-aggressive and geographically confined to rather stable territories. This no longer is true. Partly because of globalized popula- tions moving or being forced to leave their home territories, some factions of Islam have expanded geographically and are claiming strong influence over national states, for example, attacking countries like France with its tradition of laicism that does not permit religion to dominate politics. What tends to be underrepresented in the media is the positive role of religions. In Christian-dominated Europe, liberal and tolerant religion became part of the European identity a century after the Enlightenment successfully discredited the earlier doctrinaire, authoritarian and colonialist-missionary manifestations of the faith. During the Cold War, Christian goals of social cohesion helped build the sys- tem of ‘Western values’, often described as the social welfare state, or the ‘social market economy’ (for its partial demise, see Sect. 2.4). With a view towards leading Islam into an equally benign and co-operative social role, some Islamic scholars, such as Syrian born Bassam Tibi, call on Muslims in Europe to integrate into democratic society.19 Tibi, however, is not popular among radical Muslims, to put it mildly. But to understand the radicalization of Islam, one must not underestimate the role played by the West, in particular the United States, in interfering with Near Eastern states. Some would say that the troublesome situations mentioned so far, the recurring topics of media headlines, are only the surface of our world’s ‘disarray’. Deeper and more systemic problems include the breath-taking speed of technological development that may very easily run out of control. One trend is digitization that potentially threatens millions of jobs (see Sect. 1.11.4). Another trend or develop- ment can be observed in the biological sciences and technologies. The enormous acceleration of genetic engineering through the CRISPR-Cas9 technology20 is causing fears of monster creation or the extinction of species or varieties not seen as valuable under human utilitarian criteria. Generally, a non-specific feeling is spreading that ­‘progress’ has scary sides and that the genie may already have left the bottle (see Sect. 1.11.3). No doubt there is a need to analyse and understand the symptoms and roots of the variety of crises, political, economic, social, technological and environmental. It is also important to recognize the extent to which people perceive the various phenom- ena of disarray and feel disoriented, and to recognize that the reality and the feelings of disarray have a moral and even religious dimension. 19  Tibi (2012). He sees “Islamism” as incompatible with democracy, while Islam has deep roots into democratic consultation methods and has been open for a very early Enlightenment in the twelfth Century, chiefly through Ibn Rushd – Latinised as Averroes. 20  E.g. Hsu et al. (2014). 1  C’mon! Don’t Tell Me the Current Trends Are Sustainable!
  21. 21. 7 1.1.2  Financialization: A Phenomenon of Disarray An important part of the disorientation relates to financial markets. Historians will look back at the last 30 years with concern, when looking at the explosion in bank balance sheets, backed up by declining levels of equity and massive borrowing. One of the results was a temporary private-sector-led boom. The other was a massive increase in the world’s financial sector (finance, insurance, real estate – FIRE), often called financialization, and subsequently the financial crisis of 2008–2009. Excessive risk-taking developed into a crisis that was close to bringing the whole financial system to a halt. When the bubble burst, many governments were forced to step in with broad support programmes. Governments caught by the new mind-set (see Sect. 2.4) were intimately involved in all of this. True, there are many examples of serious malpractices within the pri- vate financial sector. But had it not been for the systematic deregulation of the banks by governments, with the purpose of stimulating economic growth by issuing more debt, the situation would have been radically different. The causes behind the crisis were many and varied: –– Excessive lending by the banking industry –– Lack of action on the part of regulators and central banks to stop (i) excessive lending, (ii) the spread of exotic financial instruments (synthetic assets and bonds, collateralized mortgage obligations/CMOs, structured debt issues, etc.) and (iii) pure speculative transactions –– Opaque tax havens, and the absence of a binding legal framework that is accepted and implemented by the international community, in general, and the major juris- dictions and financial centres –– Securitization and distribution by investment banks and other financial actors of mortgage-related assets and investment vehicles transferring the credit risk from the original lender to the ultimate bondholders –– Failure by some rating agencies and auditing firms to properly assess and report the inherent risks posed by many of the financial products A deeper analysis is presented by economists Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig21 about the main causes behind the financial crisis. Western banks borrowed far too much with far too little equity in their balance sheets to act as a buffer if things went wrong in their business – from trading in the multitrillion-dollar derivatives markets to often reckless lending on real estate. In the decades following the Second World War, banks operated with between 20% and 30% of their liabilities as equity. By 2008, that had shrunk to just 3%. Banks obviously believed that they had invented instruments that removed the risk, allowing them to run their banks with a tenth of the buffer they had before. It proved to be very unrealistic. But they counted with the state to underwrite their risks. 21  Admati and Hellwig (2013). 1.1 Introduction: The World in Disarray
  22. 22. 8 Bankers have enriched themselves spectacularly in the process. They made themselves ‘too big to fail’ – and too big to jail. The 2008 financial crisis was mostly caused by that irresponsible greed.22 Yet, in 2009, not only did bankers avoid crimi- nal prosecutions and receive hundreds of billions in government bailouts, but some still paid themselves record bonuses. At the same time, almost nine million house- holds in the United States had to abandon their homes when the value of their houses plummeted and they could no longer service the adjustable-rate mortgages – the so-called foreclosure crisis.23 Financialization refers to the dominance of the financial sector in the global econ- omy and the tendency for accumulated profits (and leverage) to flow into real estate and other speculative investment. Debt is an intrinsic element in this process. In the United States, for example, both household debt and private sector debt more than doubled relative to GDP between 1980 and 2007.24 The same is true for most OECD countries. At the same time, ‘the value of financial assets grew from four times GDP in 1980 to ten times GDP in 2007 and the finance sector’s share of corporate profits grew from about 10% in the early 1980s to almost 40% by 2006’.25 Adair Turner, chair of the UK’s Financial Services Authority in the years following the 2007–2008 crisis, regards unchecked private credit creation as the key system fault that led to that crisis with its devastating consequences.26 From this follows that the financial sector constitutes a significant and increasing risk factor in the economy. The degree of financialization varies from country to country but the increase in the power of finance is general. The current finance sector evolved in the context of the deregulation that gathered pace from the late 1970s and expanded dramatically after the 1999 removal of the separation between commercial and investment bank- ing in the United States.27 This barrier had been put in place in 1933 by the Roosevelt administration in response to the Wall Street Crash of 1929, when a period of ram- pant credit creation and financial speculation collapsed. Similar speculation ­preceded the crisis of 2007–2008: The face value of financial products reached US$640 trillion in September 2008, 14 times the GDP of all the countries on earth.28 Lietaer et  al.29 compare speculation with ordinary money transfers paying for goods and services: ‘In 2010, the volume of foreign exchange transactions reached $4 trillion per day’, which does not even include derivatives. In comparison, ‘one day’s exports or imports of all goods and services in the world amount to about 2% of those $4 trillion’. Transactions not paying for goods and services, almost by definition are 22  E.g. McLean and Nocera (2010). 23  NCPA (2015). 24  “In 1981 household debt was 48% of GDP, while in 2007 it was 100%. Private sector debt was 123% of GDP in 1981 and 290% by late 2008” (Crotty 2009, p. 576). 25  Crotty (2009), ibid. 26  Turner (2016). “Across advanced economies private-sector debt increased from 50% of national income in 1950 to 170% in 2006”(p. 1). 27  The removal of the separation occurred in 1986 in the UK. 28  Sassen (2009). 29  Lietaer et al. (2012). Quotes from pages 11–12. 1  C’mon! Don’t Tell Me the Current Trends Are Sustainable!
  23. 23. 9 speculative. Such financial products and transactions, the authors continue, lead regu- larly to monetary crashes, sovereign debt crises and systemic crashes with an average of more than ten countries in crisis every year. One of the consequences of this development is that a significant part of eco- nomic growth has been distributed to the wealthy, as mentioned with the new Oxfam figures in the previous subchapter. Practices within the financial sector demonstrate a disregard for the impact they have on both people and the planet. That includes a distinct short-termism, the ratio of banks’ reserves to their loans, the ratio of banks’ lending that support the real economy versus speculation in property and derivatives, unchecked credit cre- ation – in fact money creation – and the failure to account for long-term climate and environmental risks. In the words of Otto Scharmer at MIT,30 ‘We have a system that accumulates oversupply of money in areas that produce high financial and low envi- ronmental and social returns, while at the same an undersupply of money in areas that serve important societal investment needs’. The failure to account for environmental risks means that the pressure on already-­ scarce natural resources accelerates – trees are felled, waterways polluted, wetlands drained and the exploitation of oil, gas and coal accelerating, as long as there is demand. It also means that huge savings, among them pension funds, are locked into investments in fossil-based assets. Such assets are increasingly looked upon as high-risk assets (see Sect. 3.4). 1.1.3  Empty World Versus Full World The Club of Rome was always conscious of the philosophical roots of human his- tory. Among the valuable scripts are Kenneth Boulding’s The Meaning of the Twentieth Century saying (in short) that the meaning is the stewardship of Spaceship Earth. His book was labelled one of the five ‘prescient classics that first made sus- tainability a public issue’.31 But then many thinkers saw that the stewardship was difficult under the condi- tions of the full world.32 That became the chief message of the Club of Rome during its early years, written down in The Limits to Growth.33 Humans cannot become successful stewards of Spaceship Earth with development ideals, scientific models and value sets that were shaped at a time of the empty world, when the population was small and the bounty of natural resources on this earth seemed endless, that is, during the time when the European Enlightenment unfolded and the Americas looked like places where settlers and entrepreneurs could endlessly find new space. 30  Scharmer (2009). 31  Rome (2015). 32  Daly (2005); see also Sect. 1.12. 33  Meadows et al. (1972). 1.1 Introduction: The World in Disarray
  24. 24. 10 Today, actually since the mid of the twentieth century, humanity lives in a full world. The limits are tangible, palpable in almost everything people do. And yet, 45 years after The Limits to Growth became a public issue, the world still tracks along the ‘standard run’ of the 1972 Limits model, representing the business as usual development stemming from the empty world. Recent studies34 actually sup- port the Limits’ predictive relevance. A new term illustrating the limits phenomenon is that of the planetary boundaries35 (see Sect. 1.3). When Limits was published, many people, notably in the political domain, feared the message was that humanity had to give up on prosperity and agreeable life styles. But that was never the idea of the Club of Rome. Our main concern was the growing footprint of mankind and that economic activity has to assume radically different forms. Why it is so hard to change the old trends? Well, changing trends depends on changing minds. That was the experience of the European Enlightenment. That cou- rageous process took roughly two centuries, the seventeenth and eighteenth centu- ries, and served as a great liberation from authoritarian rules and narratives defined by the Crown and the Church. The enlightened transformation was successful because it championed human reasoning and rational change through the applica- tion of the scientific method. The Enlightenment established the ideals of individual freedom, economic growth and technological innovation that had barely existed previously in European society. The concepts of democracy and the separation of powers brought political influence to many more men (hardly women) or their elected representatives. And innovators, entrepreneurs and merchants were allowed to flourish and to become a new ‘aristocracy’, this time legitimated by their own work, not by royal families. The Enlightenment was experienced by most people in Europe as an extremely welcome development. There were dark sides too. European colonialism with all its arrogance and cru- elty found almost no critique among the intellectuals of the Enlightenment. The misery of the working classes and impoverished peasants to say nothing of the colo- nized indigenous peoples all over the world was hardly noticed in bourgeois circles. No comprehension was visible of the equivalent value of women and men. And unrestrained growth was seen as completely legitimate. History continues. Global population rose from one billion in the eighteenth century to some 7.6 billion today. In parallel, per capita consumption of energy, water, space and minerals was also growing. This twin development catapulted us into the ‘full world’. Looking at ecological and economic realities, the time has come for demanding some kind of new Enlightenment, one that fits for the full world. Growth may no longer be automatically related to living better lives, but can actually be detrimental. This simple but fundamental difference between the eighteenth and the twenty-first centu- ries is changing our assessment and valuation of technologies, incentives and rules governing all of society’s values, habits, regulations and institutions. 34  Turner and Alexander (2014). More sources: see Jackson and Webster (2016), CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. 35  Rockström and Klum (2012). 1  C’mon! Don’t Tell Me the Current Trends Are Sustainable!
  25. 25. 11 Economic theory therefore has to be updated, so as to adapt to the conditions of the full world. It is insufficient to incorporate environmental and social concerns by translating them into monetary expressions of capital. Nor is it sufficient to simply refer to various forms of pollution and ecosystem decline as ‘externalities’ – the notion being that what is at stake is some marginal disturbance. Humanity’s transi- tion into a full world also has to change the attitudes, priorities and incentive sys- tems of all civilizations on this small planet. Luckily, some (rare) historical evidence confirms that in mature stages of develop- ment, human happiness can improve and be maintained while the consumption of energy, water or minerals stays stable or is even reduced (see Sects. 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 3.8, and 3.9). Economic growth and technological progress can be accompanied, if not accelerated, by an increase of elegance and efficiency of resource use, possibly in a ‘cradle to cradle’ manner.36 For example, from the eighteenth-­ century candles to the LED, the output of light per input of energy has risen roughly a hundred million-fold,37 allowing much more lighting convenience at much less energy consumption even in the full world. At this moment in time, however, nearly all the trends of resource consump- tion, climate change, biodiversity losses and soil degradation reflect the inade- quacy and misdirection of public policies, business strategies and the underlying social values. At a more basic level, these prevailing trends also reflect the inad- equacy of the system of education. The cumulative implications of these trends are forcing us to dramatically change the direction of progress and to work hard on the creation of the new Enlightenment. That new Enlightenment should rein- vigorate the spirit of inquiry and bold visioning, and a kind of humanism that is not in a primitive manner anthropocentric but allows also for compassion for other living beings, while incorporating far more attention to the long-term future (see Sect. 2.10). Yet, this book Come On! is hard stuff. It will not be easy to digest. Politically, it is very uncomfortable. It both requires and represents fresh and original thought and approaches. It should be seen as an invitation to readers and discussants to ‘come on’, and to join on a fascinating journey of developing and testing new approaches of making the full world a sustainable and prospering one. 1.2  The Limits to Growth: How Relevant Was Its Message? One of the main preoccupations of this book is the failure of society to understand the implications of what it means for us all to be living in a ‘full world’. Therefore, it is natural to go back to 1972 and that landmark report to the Club of Rome, The Limits to Growth (LtG), written by Donella Meadows, Denis Meadows, Jørgen 36  Braungart and McDonough (2002), McDonough and Braungart (2013). 37  Tsao et al. (2010). 1.2  The Limits to Growth: How Relevant Was Its Message?
  26. 26. 12 Randers and William Behrens III.38 The Club of Rome was, through this book, one of the first organizations to address the challenges of non-sustainable growth. The key figure in this report was the business as usual scenario (Fig.  1.2). Assuming constant relations between natural resources, food per person, popula- tion, pollution and industrial output per person, it showed a world that would run into disaster in the first half of the twenty-first century. However, many people read the report as if the world would come to a standstill in the next 10 years or so; that was never the message. The report had established a 50- to a 100-year perspective. Moreover, its focus was the increasing physical impact of economic growth – via humanity’s ecological footprint – not growth itself. The Limits to Growth reverberated around the world and the book sold many mil- lion copies. However, massive critiques, not least by conventional economists, ­followed its publication. The main critique was that the report had not factored in ‘the ingenuity of man’. Furthermore, economists claimed that resource scarcity is primarily a question of pricing. But critics were partially right: The treatment of innovation was too static in The Limits to Growth. The World3 computer model used in the MIT study was rather inflexible and assumed constant mutual relations between different parameters such as industrial output and pollution. The model could not predict the stunning advances in pollution control, which permitted many countries to partially escape from tragedies of polluted air, water and soils. This being said, there are of course limits to what technology can achieve.39 38  Meadows et al. (1972). 39  Higgs (2014, pp. 51–62; 257–268). pollution food per person population industrial output per person natural resources 20001900 2100 Fig. 1.2  The standard run in The Limits to Growth. Exhaustion of resources and heavy pollution would lead to collapse by about 2025 (Source: Meadows et al. 1972 (footnote 20)) 1  C’mon! Don’t Tell Me the Current Trends Are Sustainable!
  27. 27. 13 With regard to resource scarcity the picture is mixed. Renewable resources tend to be overexploited, like overfishing, groundwater depletion or deforestation, as well as ecosystem degradation and pollution. For non-renewable resources the pic- ture is more complex. Some materials, like iron ore, remain abundant. For others, like certain metals and phosphorus, there is no doubt a risk of scarcity. A common problem is that once the richest ores are exploited, further extraction will require increasingly more energy and generate more pollutants.40 Despite some shortcomings in the World3 computer model used, it was never correct for conventional economists to dismiss the warnings of the report. Their understanding of the functioning of the natural world was – and still is – limited. They seem to make no distinction between financial and industrial capital on the one hand and natural capital on the other. These types of capital are treated as near perfect substitutes for one another. ‘As long as financial capital increases we are fine’ – so goes the thinking. But we cannot eat money and money cannot generate more orangutans or clean water or a stable climate, once overuse or pollution has gone too far. Furthermore, conventional economic models, linear in nature, are incapable of addressing and guiding society with regard to the non-linearity of natural systems, such as the climate system. Scientists keep reminding us of ‘tipping points’ in rela- tion both to vital ecosystems like rainforests, soils or lakes and the climate system. Once such tipping points are crossed and the original ecosystem has flipped or the climate system is severely destabilized, the damage made may be irretrievable. Examples include hydrocarbon leakage from the melting tundra in Siberia, the bleaching of coral reefs and parts of the Amazonian rainforest tipping over and becoming a savannah. Shortly after the publication of Limits, the oil exporting countries (OPEC) boldly made use of their near-monopoly in oil and gas, and through concerted action man- aged to quadruple oil prices. This oil shock, however, triggered intensified search for more oil resources, and less than 10 years later supplies exceeded demand, so oil prices began to tumble again. Environmental optimists and especially conventional economists saw this as proof of their critique of Limits. During all of the 1980s and 1990s, the Club of Rome’s message of The Limits to Growth enjoyed very little mainstream appreciation and attention.41 Nevertheless, the core of the message remained valid. When the new industrial giants, China and India, entered the world commodity markets in a massive way, demanding increasing amounts of fossil fuels, cement and metallic minerals, the prices of those commodities began to rise again, and a new era of scarcity seemed to have begun. However, in the wake of the economic crisis of 2008, prices collapsed yet again (Fig. 1.3). 40  Bardi (2014). 41  Higgs (2014, l.c., p. 91–93). 1.2  The Limits to Growth: How Relevant Was Its Message?
  28. 28. 14 A recent study by Graham Turner found that historical data from the period 1970–2000 again confirmed the predictive value of Limits.42 While most decision makers have tended to dismiss that message in favour of more optimistic scenarios, being politically popular, it remains our conviction that The Limits to Growth in essence is right, after all. 1.3  Planetary Boundaries The idea of planetary boundaries has proven a very effective means of gauging the state of the planet. This concept was introduced in 2009 by a group of 28 interna- tionally renowned scientists led by Johan Rockström and Will Steffen and has been recently updated.43 The concept indicates, based on scientific research, that since the Industrial Revolution human activity has gradually become the main driver of global environmental change. Once human activity passes certain thresholds or tipping points (defined as ‘planetary boundaries’), there is a risk of ‘irreversible and abrupt 42  Turner (2008–09). 43  Rockström et al. (2009a, b). See also Steffen et al. (2015). 50 Index prices of selected fuel components of the RPI indices relative to the all items RPI, January 1987=100 Coal and smokeless fuels Gas Electricity Heating oils Source: ONS series DOBW, DOBY, DOBX, DOBZ and CHAW 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Fig. 1.3  Index energy prices rose from 2004 until the end of 2008, and again till 2014 but collapsed again later (Source: Dempsey et al. 2016) 1  C’mon! Don’t Tell Me the Current Trends Are Sustainable!
  29. 29. 15 environmental change’. Rockström et al. identified nine ‘planetary life support sys- tems’ essential for human survival and attempted to quantify how far they have been pushed already. The nine planetary boundaries are shown in Fig. 1.4 and the ensuing list. The list is a bit clearer: • Stratospheric ozone depletion • Loss of biodiversity and extinctions • Chemical pollution and the release of novel entities • Climate change • Ocean acidification • Land system change • Freshwater consumption and the global hydrological cycle • Nitrogen and phosphorus flows to the biosphere and oceans • Atmospheric aerosol loading Without commenting on details of all planetary boundaries, this book will address the most prominent issue, climate change, in Sect. 1.5. Stratospheric ozone depletion Ocean acidification Atmospherical aerosol loading Biogeochemical flows Freshwater use Land-system change Biosphere integrity Climate change Novel entities ? ? ? Beyond zone of uncertainty (high risk) Below boundary (safe) Boundary not yet quantifiedIn zone of uncertainty (increasing risk) Fig. 1.4  Estimates of how the different control variables for seven planetary boundaries have changed from 1950 to present. The green-shaded polygon represents the safe operating space (Source: Steffen et al. 2015; http://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855) 1.3 Planetary Boundaries
  30. 30. 16 1.4  The Anthropocene One of the most striking ways of describing the current, human-dominated era is the calculation that humans and farm animals (Fig. 1.5), combined, constitute 97% of the bodyweight of all living land vertebrates on earth! This means elephants and kangaroos, bats and rats, birds, reptiles and amphibians combined make up a mere 3% of the world’s land vertebrate bodyweights. The source of this stunning observation is from critics of excessive meat eating.44 It is pretty clear that humankind’s steeply rising consumption rates, especially during the past 50 years, has caused massive changes to the atmosphere and the biosphere. The effects on human health are yet to be quantified, although there is abundant anecdotal evidence of quite deleterious effects. Atmospheric chemist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Crutzen says a more scientific way of appreciating that the Anthropocene era is now underway is to look at the curves describing the changes of a variety of parameters, both physical and social, observed over the past 250 years. Figure 1.6 shows how 24 such parameters devel- oped, with the growth drama occurring during the past 50 years.45 44  World Society for the Protection of Animals (WSPA) (2008). Figures are based on Smil (2011). 45  Steffen et al. (2007). Fig. 1.5  Factory farming (pigs in this picture) is the main reason for the fact that 97% of the living vertebrate biomass on land is farm animals and humans. Three per cent remains for wildlife (Source: Getty Images/iStockphoto/agnormark) 1  C’mon! Don’t Tell Me the Current Trends Are Sustainable!
  31. 31. 17 It does not take an unusual imagination to conclude that such massive changes have the potential of leading to violent conflicts, probably on a scale not seen any time in the past. Clearly, under war conditions, achieving any one of the 11 socio-­economic SDGs (Sect. 1.10) would become impossible. Thus, for the sake of the socio-eco- nomic well-being of humankind, it is absolutely imperative that the world avoid the kind of environmental disasters resulting from trespassing the planetary boundaries. 1.5  The Climate Challenge The 21th Conference of the Parties (COP 21) of the UN Climate Convention in Paris in December 2015 was hailed as a big success. All 195 countries present in Paris did agree on the need ‘for global emissions to peak as soon as possible’ and to ‘under- take rapid reductions thereafter’. The call to hold the increase in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’ is no doubt very ambitious. For all the official praise, there were also quite a lot of critical comments. Leading climate scientist Jim Hansen called the agreement a fraud. ‘It’s just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. … As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned. … The decision is meaningless without a commitment to tax greenhouse emissions’, he said to The Guardian46 ; Hansen believes that a strong price signal is the only way to reduce emissions fast enough. 46  The Guardian. 13 Dec., 2015. World population 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 BILLION YEAR 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR TRILLIONUSDOLLARS 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Foreign direct investment 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR TRILLIONUSDOLLARS Real GDP Primary energy use 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 EXAJOULE(EJ) YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR THOUSANDKM3 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Water use 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR THOUSANDDAMS Large dams Fertilizer consumption 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 MILLIONTONNES YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR BILLION 0 40 80 120 160 200 Urban population 0 100 200 300 400 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR MILLIONTONNES Paper production Transportation 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 MILLIONMOTORVEHICLES YEAR 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR MILLIONARRIVALS 0 200 400 600 1000 700 800 1200 International tourism 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR BILLIONPHONESUBSCRIPTIONS Tele- communication SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS Carbon dioxide 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 ATMOSPHERICCONC.,PPM YEAR 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR ATMOSPHERICCONC.,PPB 390 270 300 330 360 Methane 260 280 300 320 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR ATMOSPHERICCONC.,PPB Nitrious oxide Stratospheric ozone 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 %LOSS YEAR 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR HYDROGENION,MMOLKG-1 0 20 40 60 80 100 Ocean adification -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR TEMPERATUREANOMALY°C Surface temperature Marine fish capture 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 MILLIONTONNES YEAR 0 20 40 60 80 100 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR HUMANNFLUX,MTONYR-1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 80 70 Coastal nitrogene 0 1 2 3 4 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR MILLIONTONNES Shrimp aquaculture Tropical forest loss 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 %LOSS(AREA) YEAR 0 10 20 30 40 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR %LOSSMEANSPECIESABUNDANCE 0 5 10 25 15 20 30 Terrestrial biosphere degradation 0 25 50 1750 1800 1850 1900 20101950 YEAR %OFTOTALLANDAREA Domesticated land EARTH SYSTEM TRENDSThe Great Acceleration Fig. 1.6  TheAnthropocene. Twenty-four curves showing the dramatic changes of human population, of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and of human construction and consumption patterns. The dramatic changes occurred during the past 50 years (Adapted from Steffen et al. 2007; by courtesy of Globaïa, www.globaia.org) 1.5 The Climate Challenge
  32. 32. 18 George Monbiotl summarized it otherwise, also in The Guardian: ‘The deal is a miracle by comparison to what it could have been – and a disaster by comparison to what it should have been’. He added, ‘The real outcomes are likely to commit us to levels of climate breakdown that will be dangerous to all and lethal to some’.47 Monbiot’s comments must be taken seriously. It was, indeed, an achievement to agree, not only to keep temperature increase ‘well below 2°C’ but also to aim ‘to limit the increase to 1.5°C’. However, hardly anything is said about what measures to take to achieve these goals. No agreement was reached on the necessity of a global carbon tax, nor on the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies. Furthermore, the pace foreseen in terms of emission reductions in the years leading up to 2030 – a critical period to avoid accumulating excessive amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere – is modest, at best. There does seem to be a serious disconnect between what is being done and planned for and what is required. If countries mainly stick to their Paris commitments  – the so-called INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) – there is little chance of prevent- ing the average global temperature of reaching a minimum of 3  °C above pre-­ industrial levels, as early as the second half of this century. Such warming could be catastrophic. The climate system is non-linear in nature and may reach unpleasant tipping points already around a warming of 1.5 °C or 2 °C. This makes action in the immediate future so important. 1.5.1  We Need a ‘Crash Plan’ Let’s face it. To have a chance to meet the Paris goals, the world has to go through a rapid and thorough transformation of its production and consumption systems. To avoid exceeding the 2 °C target, the carbon intensity of the global economy must be reduced by at least 6.2% per annum. To meet the 1.5 °C target the reduction would have to be close to 10% yearly. To put this in perspective, global carbon intensity fell by an average of 0.9% between 2000 and 2013! A positive sign is that many smaller but still key actors – states, cities, compa- nies, financial institutions, civil society organizations, faiths and communities  – have lined up in support of the Paris agreement. More than 1000 cities around the world are committed to 100% renewable power, and the same goes for almost 100 of the world’s largest companies. But the challenge is colossal – not least in an open and market-based economy. Humanity truly needs a ‘crash plan’. One thing seems obvious: the market alone will not solve the problem. Averting climate change will require such large-scale, rapid action that no single technology, new or emerging, can be the solution. The challenge therefore is one of rapid, concerted deployment of a portfolio of emerging and mature energy and non-energy technologies. For this to happen, governments – not short-term-focused markets – must be in the driver’s seat. 47  Monbiot (2015). 1  C’mon! Don’t Tell Me the Current Trends Are Sustainable!
  33. 33. 19 It could be argued that society has the knowledge, the financial resources and the technologies to move towards a low-carbon society in time to avert disaster. With learning curves for solar and wind – and more recently for energy storage – being extraordinarily positive, there is no longer any excuse for not taking strong action. But lower technology costs alone will not make it. All the sunk costs in power plants, vehicles and manufacturing facilities designed to run on fossil fuels are effective barriers to change. The incumbents, no doubt, will do all they can to prevent or at least postpone the necessary transition. The absence so far of a global tax on carbon and the price of oil hovering around US$50 per barrel will not make change any easier. Few people want to talk about it. But the truth of the matter is that if humankind does not manage to put in place the ‘crash plan’ needed for the decarbonization of the economy, there are two alternatives left, both highly questionable in terms of efficacy and with unknown ecosystem effects: geoengineering and the large-scale deployment of ‘negative emissions technologies’. 1.5.2  How to Deal with Overshoot? Carbon dioxide is long-lived in the atmosphere and the remaining carbon budget is extremely tight. It is therefore realistic to assume that CO2 emissions will overshoot. The question is by how much? The Paris agreement pledges to arrive at greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050. The wording can be read as an invitation to ‘geoengineering’, from the comparatively harmless but expensive CCS (carbon capture and sequestration) and biogenic CCS (BECCS) to wild phantasies of manipulating the atmosphere, the stratosphere or the ocean surfaces with a view of changing the global radiation patterns so as to reduce average temperatures. Within the Club of Rome, there are strong voices in favour of CCS, arguing it is the only method that has a chance of stopping run-away climate change. On the other hand, both for technical CCS and for BECCS the scale needed to make a dif- ference is enormous. The following comment by Professor Kevin Andersson, guest professor at Uppsala University and deputy director of the Tyndall Centre, puts BECCS into perspective: The sheer scale of the BECCS assumption underpinning the Paris Agreement is breath-­ taking – decades of ongoing planting and harvesting of energy crops over an area the size of one to three times that of India.At the same time the aviation industry anticipates fuelling its planes with bio-fuel, the shipping industry is seriously considering biomass to power its ships and the chemical sector sees biomass as a potential feedstock. And then there are 9 billion or so human mouths to feed. Surely this critical assumption deserved serious atten- tion within the Agreement.48 48  Kevin Andersson. 2015. The hidden agenda: how veiled techno-utopias shore up the Paris Agreement. Pre-edited version of his summary of the ParisAgreement published in Nature’s World View (Dec. 2015): http://www.nature.com/polopoly_fs/1.19074!/menu/main/topColumns/topLeft Column/pdf/528437a.pdf 1.5 The Climate Challenge
  34. 34. 20 Add to that the logistical, legal and public acceptance question marks. The vol- umes of CO2 to be stored to compensate for carbon overshoot are extraordinarily large in most of the IPCC 2 °C pathways. Unfortunately, limited efforts have been devoted to critically analysing whether such volumes are at all possible to obtain. No doubt, strong efforts must be made to develop CCS technology further, as it will be needed as a fall-back strategy to address carbon emissions. It is not possible to ignore the continued use of coal in many parts of the world in the foreseeable future, as well as the production of steel and cement. 1.5.3  Why Not a Marshall Plan? It is very true that negative emissions will also be needed, and BECCS is an option here. But everything must be done to limit its scope because a huge reliance on ‘nega- tive emissions technologies’ is dangerous. It tends to give people a false sense of security that society will find a way to engineer a solution for the climate problem. Instead of agreeing on something like a Marshall Plan to invest massively in low-­ carbon technologies, which is possible from both a technological and an economic point of view, the Paris agreement assumes that mitigation measures in the period leading up to 2030 would only deliver reductions in the range of 2% p a. If climate change is a serious threat – and the Paris agreement says it is – prudence would com- pel us to take much stronger action in the immediate future and not leave it for later. Without such action, the reliance on negative emissions would be dangerously high. The main hope for the post-Paris agenda is that different actors (governments, cit- ies, companies, financial markets and civil society organizations) will take the chal- lenge seriously and do everything possible, right now to help support a strengthening of mitigation efforts across the board. Strong action by individual governments, states or cities does matter. The world is in desperate need of good examples, including in your own neighbourhood. 1.5.4  Has Humanity Already Missed the Chance to Meet the Climate Goals? Almost 2 years have passed since Paris. The year 2016 alone brought a great num- ber of stories related to human-caused climate change – some good, some bad and some downright ugly. On the positive side, there is the fact that the Paris agreement was ratified much faster than most have believed. The parties to the climate convention met again in November 2016 in Marrakech. Many observers feared that a number of govern- ments would use Trump’s victory (which happened during the conference) as a pretext for reducing their ambitions in terms of emission reductions. On the con- trary, major governments, including the United States (with President Obama still in 1  C’mon! Don’t Tell Me the Current Trends Are Sustainable!

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