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U.S. Solar Market Insight Conference 2011

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Opening presentation for the U.S. Solar Market Insight Conference from Shayle Kann, Managing Director of the solar research practice at GTM Research.

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U.S. Solar Market Insight Conference 2011

  1. 1. The U.S. Solar Industry: Story Behind the Headlines Shayle Kann Managing Director, Solar GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight November 16, 2011 OR – Day 67 A.S.COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
  2. 2. 2011 Has Been a Tough Year For Solar Manufacturers Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
  3. 3. The Fall-Out in the U.S. Bankruptcies Plant Closures Media (Over)Reaction Trade War Vs.COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
  4. 4. Trade Petition - Understanding Market Impacts Data is sourced from CA, NJ and MD, which together comprise over 50% of the U.S. market. However, actual market shares for the entire country may differ. Also note that this refers to manufacturer headquarters, not location of manufacturing facilities.COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
  5. 5. Trade Petition - Understanding Market Impacts Data is sourced from CA, NJ and MD, which together comprise over 50% of the U.S. market. However, actual market shares for the entire country may differ. Also note that this refers to manufacturer headquarters, not location of manufacturing facilities.COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
  6. 6. Trade Petition – Near-Term Questions • Timing – 1603 vs. Potential Duties • Q4 Shipment Boom – Bigger or Smaller? • Financing and Redesign for Late-Stage Projects • Will Suppliers Take on the Duty Risk?COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
  7. 7. The Growing Importance of the U.S. End Market Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TMCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
  8. 8. U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2007 NJ NV CO CA Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
  9. 9. U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2011E MA OR NY PA NJ OH DE NV MD CO CA NC TN AZ NM TX FL HI Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
  10. 10. The Latest Installation Numbers Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TMCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
  11. 11. Non-Residential Market In a State of Flux Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
  12. 12. U.S. Residential Solar Lease Landscape Tax Third-Party Finance Providers Residential Module Suppliers Equity Finance w/ Subcontracted Integrators/Finance w/ Residential Providers Providers Installations Providers Lease ProgramsSource: GTM Research
  13. 13. The Spectrum of Possibilities for 2012 Module Pricing Project Financing State Market Dynamics Global NY Solar Growth in Oversupply Increased Jobs Act TX, MO, Tax Equity from IL, PR Corporates, NJ: S2371 Drivers New Entrants PA: HB 1580 Global Chinese 1603 Cash State Tax Equity New Market Supply/Demand Cell /Module Grant Legislatio Supply Development Balance Import Duty Extension n Constraints Small Duty; Chinese Suppliers OH RPS Remain Roll-Back Active Tax Equity CSI Funding Global Large Duty; Bottleneck, Depletion Undersupply Disappearanc Rates >15%- e of Chinese 17% SuppliersCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
  14. 14. Final Thoughts: We Have a Long Way to Go Source: EIA, GTM Research Source: DOE, GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
  15. 15. Thank You! Shayle Kann Managing Director, Solar GTM Research Email: kann@gtmresearch.com www.gtmresearch.com U.S. Solar Market Insight Reports U.S. Utility PV Market TrackerCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

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