NEW YORK CITY MULTI-FAMILY SALES MARKET OVERVIEW ROBERT A. KNAKAL
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services NYC Investment Property Sales Volume (1984-2010) VOLUME OF SALES
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services NYC Investment Property Sales Volume (1984-2010) VOLUME OF SALES
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services NYC Investment Property Sales Volume (1984-2010) VOLUME OF SALES
TURNOVER RATES (ANNUALIZED)
BUILDING SALES VOLUME (NUMBER OF BUILDINGS SOLD) 2005 – 1H 2010, MANHATTAN
BUILDING SALES VOLUME (NUMBER OF BUILDINGS SOLD) 2005 – 1H 2010, CITYWIDE
CITYWIDE DOLLAR VOLUME (AGGREGATE SALES PRICE) 2005 – 1H 2010, ALL SALES (IN BILLIONS)
MANHATTAN DOLLAR VOLUME (AGGREGATE SALES PRICE) 2005 – 1H 2010, ALL SALES (IN BILLIONS)
AVERAGE PPSF MANHATTAN – FROM PEAK TO 2009 -32%
AVERAGE PPSF MANHATTAN PPSF
AVERAGE CAP RATES MANHATTAN CAP RATE
CAP RATES Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008) MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
WALK-UP CAP RATES COMPARED TO GRM Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008) MANHATTAN WALK-UP APART...
ELEVATOR CAP RATES COMPARED TO GRM Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008) MANHATTAN ELEVATOR APA...
CAP RATES COMPARED TO MORTGAGE RATES Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008), Federal Reserve Ban...
LEVERAGE (CAP RATES MINUS MORTGAGE RATES) Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
CAP RATES COMPARED TO 10-YEAR T-BILL Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008), US Treasury MANHATT...
RISK PREMIUM (CAP RATES MINUS 10-YEAR T-BILL) Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-20...
APARTMENT BUILDINGS WALK-UP and ELEVATOR SALES Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services *annualized
APARTMENT BUILDINGS WALK-UP SALES Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services 2009 1H 2010 *annualized
APARTMENT BUILDINGS ELEVATOR SALES Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services 2009 1H 2010 *annualized
MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS CAP RATES Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services WALK-UP ELEVATOR   2007 2009 2010 Change from 2009 Ch...
MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS GRM Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services WALK-UP ELEVATOR   2007 2009 2010 Change from 2009 Change f...
MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services WALK-UP ELEVATOR   2007 2009 2010 Change ...
MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS PRICE PER UNIT Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services WALK-UP ELEVATOR   2009 2010 Change from 2009 Ma...
1. VOLUME – Continued Increases 3. FINANCING – Strong MULTI-FAMILY MARKET CONCLUSIONS: 2. PRICES – Uncertain
THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: 1. Unemployment 3. Housing Market 4. Inflation 5. Fed Monetary Policy 6. Deleveraging 2010 and B...
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NYC Multifamily Sales Market Overview

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Robert Knakal presents the NYC Multifamily Sales Market Overview as a keynote address during the Massey Knakal Multifamily Summit (GreenPearl Events).

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NYC Multifamily Sales Market Overview

  1. 1. NEW YORK CITY MULTI-FAMILY SALES MARKET OVERVIEW ROBERT A. KNAKAL
  2. 2. Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services NYC Investment Property Sales Volume (1984-2010) VOLUME OF SALES
  3. 3. Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services NYC Investment Property Sales Volume (1984-2010) VOLUME OF SALES
  4. 4. Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services NYC Investment Property Sales Volume (1984-2010) VOLUME OF SALES
  5. 5. TURNOVER RATES (ANNUALIZED)
  6. 6. BUILDING SALES VOLUME (NUMBER OF BUILDINGS SOLD) 2005 – 1H 2010, MANHATTAN
  7. 7. BUILDING SALES VOLUME (NUMBER OF BUILDINGS SOLD) 2005 – 1H 2010, CITYWIDE
  8. 8. CITYWIDE DOLLAR VOLUME (AGGREGATE SALES PRICE) 2005 – 1H 2010, ALL SALES (IN BILLIONS)
  9. 9. MANHATTAN DOLLAR VOLUME (AGGREGATE SALES PRICE) 2005 – 1H 2010, ALL SALES (IN BILLIONS)
  10. 10. AVERAGE PPSF MANHATTAN – FROM PEAK TO 2009 -32%
  11. 11. AVERAGE PPSF MANHATTAN PPSF
  12. 12. AVERAGE CAP RATES MANHATTAN CAP RATE
  13. 13. CAP RATES Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008) MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
  14. 14. WALK-UP CAP RATES COMPARED TO GRM Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008) MANHATTAN WALK-UP APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
  15. 15. ELEVATOR CAP RATES COMPARED TO GRM Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008) MANHATTAN ELEVATOR APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
  16. 16. CAP RATES COMPARED TO MORTGAGE RATES Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008), Federal Reserve Bank MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
  17. 17. LEVERAGE (CAP RATES MINUS MORTGAGE RATES) Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
  18. 18. CAP RATES COMPARED TO 10-YEAR T-BILL Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008), US Treasury MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
  19. 19. RISK PREMIUM (CAP RATES MINUS 10-YEAR T-BILL) Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2010)
  20. 20. APARTMENT BUILDINGS WALK-UP and ELEVATOR SALES Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services *annualized
  21. 21. APARTMENT BUILDINGS WALK-UP SALES Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services 2009 1H 2010 *annualized
  22. 22. APARTMENT BUILDINGS ELEVATOR SALES Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services 2009 1H 2010 *annualized
  23. 23. MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS CAP RATES Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services WALK-UP ELEVATOR   2007 2009 2010 Change from 2009 Change from 2007 Manhattan 3.18% 4.71% 5.08% +37 +190 Northern Manhattan 5.11% 5.53% 6.01% +48 +90 Bronx 5.85% 7.84% 7.97% +13 +212 Brooklyn 5.27% 6.14% 6.26% +12 +99 Queens 5.32% 6.04% 6.56% +52 +124   2007 2009 2010 Change from 2009 Change from 2007 Manhattan 4.40% 5.46% 6.08% +62 +168 Northern Manhattan 5.43% 7.02% 7.26% +24 +183 Bronx 7.45% 7.51% 7.30% -21 -15 Brooklyn 5.91% 7.60% 7.09% -51 +118 Queens 6.45% 6.72% 7.20% +48 +75
  24. 24. MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS GRM Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services WALK-UP ELEVATOR   2007 2009 2010 Change from 2009 Change from 2007 Manhattan 15.35 11.66 11.23 -0.43 -4.12 Northern Manhattan 11.45 8.25 7.70 -0.55 -3.75 Bronx 7.81 7.16 7.45 +0.29 -0.36 Brooklyn 10.12 9.42 9.92 +0.50 -0.20 Queens 11.21 9.93 9.62 -0.31 -1.59   2007 2009 2010 Change from 2009 Change from 2007 Manhattan 16.75 13.30 11.67 -1.63 -5.08 Northern Manhattan 12.54 8.47 8.90 +0.43 -3.64 Bronx 8.45 6.94 6.88 -0.06 -1.57 Brooklyn 10.96 8.78 8.64 -0.14 -2.32 Queens 12.13 9.14 9.56 +0.42 -2.57
  25. 25. MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services WALK-UP ELEVATOR   2007 2009 2010 Change from 2009 Change from 2007 Manhattan $522 $434 $406 -6% -22% Northern Manhattan $170 $124 $109 -12% -36% Bronx $85 $69 $59 -14% -31% Brooklyn $110 $126 $196 +56% +78% Queens $117 $133 $189 +42% +62%   2007 2009 2010 Change from 2009 Change from 2007 Manhattan $556 $505 $634 +26% +14% Northern Manhattan $307 $161 $128 -20% -58% Bronx $108 $88 $96 +9% -11% Brooklyn $188 $160 $181 +13% -4% Queens $220 $190 $185 -3% -16%
  26. 26. MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS PRICE PER UNIT Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services WALK-UP ELEVATOR   2009 2010 Change from 2009 Manhattan $347,630 $387,900 +12% Northern Manhattan $115,780 $88,240 -24% Bronx $73,522 $79,379 +8% Brooklyn $131,574 $136,431 +4% Queens $143,450 $137,552 -4%   2009 2010 Change from 2009 Manhattan $355,181 $319,823 -10% Northern Manhattan $92,733 $114,782 +24% Bronx $70,643 $66,262 -6% Brooklyn $129,672 $145,908 +13% Queens $108,383 $132,826 +23%
  27. 27. 1. VOLUME – Continued Increases 3. FINANCING – Strong MULTI-FAMILY MARKET CONCLUSIONS: 2. PRICES – Uncertain
  28. 28. THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: 1. Unemployment 3. Housing Market 4. Inflation 5. Fed Monetary Policy 6. Deleveraging 2010 and BEYOND 2. Supply vs. Demand

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