Green Pearl Events Multifamily Investment Summit State Of Nyc Economy

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Green Pearl Events Multifamily Investment Summit State Of NYC Economy

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  • From Lauren’s charts for Charlie. NOT UPDATED with latest numbers.
  • Monthly data through Sep 08
  • Monthly data through Sep 08
  • Latest data based on resales only.
  • Green Pearl Events Multifamily Investment Summit State Of Nyc Economy

    1. 1. Special Update: The State of the New York City Economy Jason Bram , Senior Economist, Microeconomic and Regional Studies Function, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
    2. 2. Index of Coincident Economic Indicators Subtitle Text X-Axis Text Index: July 1992 = 100 Index: July 1992 = 100 Source: FRBNY Note: Shading represents local economic downturns. Contact Person Text NY NJ NYC
    3. 3. Unemployment Rate: USA vs. Region Subtitle Text X-Axis Text Percent of Labor Force Percent of Labor Force Source: NYS Dept. of Labor and FRBNY staff calculations Note: Shading represents U.S. recessions. Contact Person Text NYC US NJ NY
    4. 4. Private Sector Job Growth: U.S. and NYC 12-Month Percent Change in Private Sector Employment X-Axis Text Percent Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com Note Text Contact Person Text U.S. NYC
    5. 5. Finance Sector’s Share of NYC Employment and Earnings NYC Employment NYC Earnings
    6. 6. NYC Employment: Securities and All Other Subtitle Text X-Axis Text Thousands Thousands Source: NYS Dept. of Labor and FRBNY staff calculations Note: Shading represents U.S. recessions. Contact Person Text NYC Employment excluding Securities (right axis) NYC Securities Industry Employment (left axis)
    7. 7. NYC Employment Subtitle Text X-Axis Text Thousands Thousands Source: NYS Dept. of Labor and FRBNY staff calculations Note: Shading represents local economic downturns. Contact Person Text Total Employment 2001- 2003 1969-1976 1989- 1992
    8. 8. NYC Employment Subtitle Text X-Axis Text Thousands Thousands Source: NYS Dept. of Labor and FRBNY staff calculations Note: Shading represents local economic downturns. Contact Person Text Total Employment 2001-2003 scenario 2001- 2003 1969-1976 1989- 1992
    9. 9. NYC Employment Subtitle Text X-Axis Text Thousands Thousands Source: NYS Dept. of Labor and FRBNY staff calculations Note: Shading represents local economic downturns. Contact Person Text Total Employment 2001-2003 scenario 2001- 2003 1969-1976 1989- 1992 1989-1992 scenario
    10. 10. Job Losses in Previous Major Financial Downturns (peak to trough) in New York City Downturn Decline in Securities Industry Employment Decline in Financial Sector Employment Decline in Total Private-Sector Employment August 1969 – May 1976 49,000 (40%) 60,000 (13%) 601,000 (18%) September 1987 – June 1993 39,000 (21%) 96,000 (17%) 343,000 (11%) December 2000 – October 2003 39,000 (19%) 60,000 (12%) 229,000 (7%) March 2008 — Oct.. 2009 (so far) 31,500 (15%) 43,500 (9%) 132,000 (4%)
    11. 11. Annual Change in Real Earnings: NYC and U.S. Subtitle Text X-Axis Text Y-Axis Left Text Y-Axis Right Text Source: BEA Note Text Contact Person Text US: All Industries NYC: All Industries NYC: Securities
    12. 12. House and Apartment Prices: U.S. and Region X-Axis Text 4-Quarter % Change 4-Quarter % Change Source: S & P / Case Shiller; Miller Samuel, FRBNY staff calculations Recent figures for apartment price are based on resales only. Contact Person Text House Price Index: NY Metro House Prices Index: U.S. Avg. Apartment Price: Manhattan
    13. 13. Summary <ul><li>After past local & financial downturns, NYC’s economy has typically turned the corner 1-2 years after the US. </li></ul><ul><li>NYC has become increasingly dependent on high income securities sector </li></ul><ul><li>The effects of the financial turmoil continue to affect employment and income. </li></ul><ul><li>Past financial downturns have led to job losses of up to 17% and income declines of more than 30%; this one doesn’t seem to have been that severe, thus far. </li></ul>
    14. 14. Special Update: The State of the New York City Economy Jason Bram , Senior Economist, Microeconomic and Regional Studies Function, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK

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