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 www.greenpack...
Abstract
Profitability is the core of any business and impacts sustainability. The WiMAX industry is flourishing
worldwide b...
The Sunrise Industry Misses Its Cheese
Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) has been gaining rapid glob...
Heavy Device Subsidies

Another important factor to consider as part of the WiMAX business model is the total cost of owne...
Understanding User and Market Needs
User Needs – When Less Is More

Most integrated WiMAX modems have multiple data (RJ45)...
Low Bandwidth Requirements & Internet Sharing


Meanwhile in developed markets, users often take for granted that computer...
Market Needs – Developed Markets

In developed markets, WiMAX is often deployed to complement wireline broadband and addre...
Basic Modems Deliver

From the case studies explained above, it is clear that WiMAX users, both in emerging and developed ...
Simulating a Profitable Business Model for WiMAX
Operators
A profitable business model for WiMAX Operators involves mixing ...
From the statistics presented, approximately 4 million households are able to afford broadband in 2010, with more within
t...
Model #2 – Financial Analysis based on ARPU

                                                                             ...
Model #3 – Financial Analysis based on Modem Subsidy

                                                                    ...
A Cost-Effective Solution for Superior Performance
At Greenpacket, we believe that an economic modem does not need to comp...
No Compromise on Performance

 EX boasts of the following features that offers superior performance.


              Impro...
Expedite Your Profitability Now!
Profitablilty is the very core of any business. For WiMAX Operators, a profitable business ...
References
1. The WiMAX Business Model and how is it doing now, Neil Shah, WiMAX360° (http://www.wimax360.com)
2. The Busi...
About Green Packet
     Greenpacket is the international arm of the Green Packet Berhad group of companies which is listed...
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A PROFITABLE WIMAX BUSINESS STARTS WITH THE MODEM

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A PROFITABLE WIMAX BUSINESS STARTS WITH THE MODEM

  1. 1. ess usin AX Bem e WiMMod tabl The Pro With A rts Sta www.greenpacket.com APPLICATION NOTE
  2. 2. Abstract Profitability is the core of any business and impacts sustainability. The WiMAX industry is flourishing worldwide but profitability remains at the horizons. There are many factors affecting this, including modem subsidies. In order to remain competitive against rival broadband technologies, WiMAX Operators offer cheap packages and absorb heavy device subsidies which delays profitability. This paper focuses on how cost-effective modems can help WiMAX Operators expedite profitability. Though the current IEEE 802.16e advocates Mobile WiMAX, majority of the users, especially in emerging markets rely on WiMAX as a fixed broadband network. In response to this pattern, the industry is flooded with a variety of indoor (fixed) modems. Many of these modems are integrated devices, combining WiFi, data and voice ports. However, very often these ports remain unutilized by residential users and the excess ports merely contribute to more expensive modems. This paper also gives a better understanding of usage patterns in both emerging and developed markets. It helps WiMAX Operators realize that basic, economic modems are able to perfectly meet user requirements without jeopardizing performance. As a result, WiMAX Operators gain from a shorter profitability period while users enjoy quality broadband connectivity. APPLICATION NOTE
  3. 3. The Sunrise Industry Misses Its Cheese Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) has been gaining rapid global traction with 588 deployments across 148 countries recorded as of April 2010. This wireless broadband technology is reputed to provide reliable, secure and high quality broadband access for fixed and mobile users. Additionally, WiMAX has been built as an IP-based network which gives it the edge in supporting bandwidth-heavy applications and user generated content (UGC) services. These characteristics have positioned WiMAX as a ‘saviour technology’ to combat network congestion due to overwhelming data traffic and this technology is viewed as the receiving network to support data offloading. On another note, WiMAX’s business model is yet to be proven profitable. The only consolation is that several leading WiMAX Operators such as Yota and Globe have reached break-even points and are hoping to turn EBITDA positive in 2010. Sadly, profit-making still remains out of reach for at least for another couple of years. Pricing Factor One of the reasons contributing to the delay in profit generation is the pricing packages offered by WiMAX Operators. Most WiMAX Operators have opted for the strategy of lowering their package pricing to combat intense competition from their 3G/HSPA counterparts as shown in Figure 1. While this strategy has been effective in increasing market share, on the other hand, it has a negative impact on earnings and profit margins. Operator Operator Download Data Limit Monthly Subscription Type Speed Fee (in US$) APAC - Japan UQ Communications WiMAX Up to 40Mbps Unlimited 49.63 Softbank Mobile 3G/3G+ Up to7.2Mbps Unlimited 66.27 North America Clearwire WiMAX Unlimited Unlimited 45 (22.50/month for WiMAX first six months) packages are priced lower Verizon Wireless 3G/3G+ Up to 1.4Mbps 5GB 59.99 compared to 3G/3G+ Russia Scartel WiMAX Up to 10Mbps Unlimited 29.67 Megafon 3G/3G+ 3.6Mbps 500 MB 39.56 Europe - Bulgaria TransTelecom WiMAX 2Mbps Unlimited 40.64 Vivacom 3G/3G+ 1.8Mbps 15GB 42.28 01 Source: 4GCounts Figure 1: Package pricing comparison between WiMAX and 3G/3G+ APPLICATION NOTE
  4. 4. Heavy Device Subsidies Another important factor to consider as part of the WiMAX business model is the total cost of ownership (TCO) which typically involves capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operating expenditures (OPEX) of the operator. CAPEX usually constitutes a larger percentage but OPEX will outweigh CAPEX overtime. Figure 2 gives a brief breakdown of categories within the cost of ownership, these categories comprise of CAPEX and OPEX costs. Infrastructure Infrastructure Core Site Backhaul IT Operations WiMAX Base Subsidies for fixed Edge and Core Development Wireless Backhaul OSS / BSS Maintainance Station and mobile IP Networking Equipment Development & Equipment WiMAX devices Elements Acquisition Integration Support & Warranty Wireline Backhaul WiMAX Service Content Rental Utilities Installation & CRM Subsriber Edge Network Management & Leasing Acquisition Delivery Marketing Media Gateways G&A Source: Motorola Figure 2: Cost categories of WiMAX It is important to note that device subsidy is one of the cost categories mentioned above and can impact the operator’s profitability. For example, according to Yankee Group, due to AT&T’s subsidy model, it takes 17 months into the two-year iPhone service contract for the operator to recover its expenses. Without subsidy, AT&T would break-even within 8 months! Device subsidy takes up 8% of an operator’s TCO as shown in Figure 3. While subsidies have benefited 2% 7% Core operators during the growth phase, it delays profitability. 8% IT On the other hand, channeling the full device cost to users 8% Infrastructure would dramatically increase package pricing and risks 50% Devices turning customers away. 10% Backhaul Site How can WiMAX Operators strike a balance between 15% Operating device subsidy and profitability? The answer lies in cost-effective devices. Source: Motorola Figure 3: Breakdown of TCO cost categories by percentage Cost Effective Modem Modems can play a vital role in churning out a profitable business for WiMAX Operators. Choosing a cost effective modem that fits the user and marketmarket’s and use’s need would help WiMAX Operators determine an attractive package pricing and modem subsidy policy to obtain a more favourable break-even period. 02 APPLICATION NOTE
  5. 5. Understanding User and Market Needs User Needs – When Less Is More Most integrated WiMAX modems have multiple data (RJ45) and voice (RJ11) ports, even as many as 4 ports. However, at large, basic broadband users (typically residential users) only require one data port and one voice port as illustrated in Figure 4 below. Instead, what varies is their usage pattern which is construed by the amount of data consumed and speed required. Hence, while excess ports contribute to the additional cost of the modem, they are not utilized. Data port VoIP port User can enjoy data-centric User can make VoIP applications via a laptop or desktop calls or fax transmission Figure 4: One data and VoIP port is sufficient to support users’ typical broadband usage pattern Market Needs – Emerging Markets WiMAX is deployed in both developed and emerging markets; however, 78% of the deployments are concentrated in the latter market. Emerging markets present a more appealing opportunity for WiMAX as wireline infrastructure is scarcely available and expensive to deploy, which ultimately leads to high broadband fees. Other factors driving WiMAX in emerging markets include: • Low broadband penetration • Limited broadband availability • New entrants can get a large market share • Low price elasticity among residential subscribers • Initial focus on fixed broadband The above factors prove the growth potential of WiMAX. It is important to note that while these countries are rich with natural and human resources, affordability is relatively low. With this in mind, WiMAX Operators have to offer affordable packages without jeopardizing ARPU. In addition to requiring fixed (indoor) modems, emerging markets need economical WiMAX modems. 03 APPLICATION NOTE
  6. 6. Low Bandwidth Requirements & Internet Sharing Meanwhile in developed markets, users often take for granted that computers are personal devices, even if the computer is used for work purposes. However, in emerging markets, expectations around computer usage are drastically different. In some communities, users share the Internet to execute low bandwidth applications. For the majority of people in developing countries such as India and the Philippines, computer usage is primarily within shared, public environments such as internet cafes or school labs. Walk down any street in New Delhi (India) or Manila (Philippines), it is a common scene to see people of all ages editing their resumes, catching up on email or social networking. Case Studies Narrowing Digital Divide in Lao Cai, Vietnam Lao Cai (Vietnam) is an economic center of rural agriculture where the economy depends on building robust relationships with neighbouring trading partners. Though there is good cellular phone coverage across this mountainous region, no such coverage exists for data services. Internet access is available through dial-up which is often slow and unreliable. As part of Intel’s World Ahead program to bridge digital divide between developed and developing nations, WiMAX was introduced to this province. Nearly 20 fixed-access WiMAX modems were installed at the local post office, Internet cafés, government office, secondary schools, healthcare centers, hotels and farm households to provide quality broadband services. Figure 5: Mountainous terrains of Lao Cai (left) and an Internet café equipped with WiMAX service (right) Empowering Medical Attention in Parintins, Brazil Meanwhile in Parintins, Brazil, an isolated island city with 114,000 inhabitants, residents struggled to get medical attention with only 12 general physicians and 20 specialists. Intel installed a WiMAX network for a primary healthcare center and several other community places, including the Amazon University. This enabled Amazon University to start a telemedicine program with the School of Sao Paolo University. The island’s doctors benefitted from a faster and greater access to the latest medical data to help in preventing diseases. Figure 6: Island city of Parintins (left) and residents enjoy better medical care through WiMAX services (right) 04 APPLICATION NOTE
  7. 7. Market Needs – Developed Markets In developed markets, WiMAX is often deployed to complement wireline broadband and address the underserved areas. With its wireless advantage, high data capacity, cost-effective and quicker to deploy, WiMAX has emerged as a favourite technology to reach rural areas. Improving the Agriculture Industry, New Zealand Contrary to common perception that rural areas do not have a pressing need for broadband, in developing countries, rural areas is a burgeoning market that needs broadband attention. For example, in New Zealand, agriculture (a rural based industry) is the main export industry. In fact, as of June 2009, agriculture represented 47% of the country’s total exports, as shown in Figure 6. New Zealand’s Exports 21% Dairy Meat 53% Wood 13% Fruit Fishing 6% 4% Non-agriculture 3% Source: Wikipedia Figure 7: New Zealand’s Agriculture Exports as of June 2009 With agriculture holding a pivotal role in its economy, New Zealand’s rugged and remote location has demonstrated to be a major barrier to broadband access in rural areas. Farm owners need realible Internet access to efficiently communicate with export supply chain vendors and coordinate export efforts. Case Study Waimate West Farm, New Zealand In a study conducted by Intel in the Taranaki Region, Brent and Annette Perret who are the Farm Managers of Waimate West Farm stated that for many years, they have been connecting to the Internet via dial-up twice a week. Unfortunately, the connection was unrealiable and they were often left frustrated at the slow connection. Furthermore, in using dial-up, Brent and Annette were not able to make telephone calls as the connection was engaged for Internet. Like Brent and Annette, business communities in New Zealand’s rural areas were looking for a solution to their rickety and snail-paced Internet connections. The solution was WiMAX! Broadcast Communications, in partnership with Airspan Networks launched 28 WiMAX sites in November 2003. This initiative provided a dependable broadband connection to 05 50% of New Zealand’s household that did not have broadband access. APPLICATION NOTE
  8. 8. Basic Modems Deliver From the case studies explained above, it is clear that WiMAX users, both in emerging and developed markets can be effectively served through basic modems that meet their basic broadband needs. Target households often possess only one computer which is shared by the entire family unit - as such, fixed indoor modems are often the best choice for this audience. Additionally, basic modems (with one data and VoIP port) are cost-effective as they only contain the necessary ports to deliver the required broadband access but do not compromise on performance. This helps Operators to offer affordable packages without over-straining CAPEX. For example, one of the packaging strategies adopted by Operators is to offer free WiMAX modems upon sign up. While this strategy is attractive in increasing WiMAX adoption, operators are forced to spend precious CAPEX in subsidizing the modems’ cost. By purchasing economical modems, WiMAX Operators can subsidize the modem but at a reduced CAPEX. 06 APPLICATION NOTE
  9. 9. Simulating a Profitable Business Model for WiMAX Operators A profitable business model for WiMAX Operators involves mixing a perfect package that blends number of subscribers, ARPU and modem subsidy. With these elements in mind, Greenpacket simulated a business model based on a study conducted1 in the Asia Pacific region. Business Objectives The selected Operator has the following business plan: Achieve 500,000 Establish 1,500 network Earn profits within 5 years subscribers by 2012 sites by 2012 (from 2009) To attain the above objectives, 3 factors will impact the profit model: • Subscriber numbers • ARPU • Modem subsidy Market Evaluation For the purpose of this simulation, the following is assumed: Household Size 4.66 persons/family Population 92.2 million (2010) – 110.6 million (2018) Household 19.8 million (2010) – 23.7 million (2018) Affordability • 3% of income is spent on Internet access • An estimated 20% is able to afford fixed broadband at an annual rate of USD240 – 840. • As such, the potential target households for fixed broadband is 3.96 million Market Ranked the nation’s 3rd broadband provider. Slow increase rate in subscriber numbers Competition translates intgo loss in market share. This has impacted the Operator’s income. 07 1Location details are withheld to protect the interest of the WiMAX Operator. Figures stated in the table may vary significantly in different regions and countries. APPLICATION NOTE
  10. 10. From the statistics presented, approximately 4 million households are able to afford broadband in 2010, with more within the next 5 years. Meanwhile, 1 million households are currently subscribed to a broadband connection, leaving an opportunity window of 3 million subscribers. In order to be profitable within 5 years, the Operator has to acquire/implement the following: Subscriber # ARPU Modem Subsidy 0.75 million (average) Increase between 10% - 20% 100% or 50% 1.00 million (high) To attain the above objectives, 3 factors will impact the profit model: • Subscriber numbers • ARPU • Modem subsidy Profitable Business Models Model #1 – Financial Analysis based on Subscriber Number Profitability Timelines Subscriber Acquisition Plan EBITDA+ EBIT+ Cummulative NP+ 0.75 million Q1 2010 Q4 2010 Q3 2013 1.00 million Q1 2010 Q4 2010 Q3 2012 Conclusion: Subscriber numbers can impact financial outcome. An increase or decrease of 10%– 33% can hasten profitability period by 1 year. Subscriber Acquisition Plan of 0.75 million Subscriber Acquisition Plan of 0.75 million Unit: KUSD Unit: KUSD 90,000 90,000 60,000 60,000 30,000 30,000 0 0 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 (30,000) (30,000) (60,000) EBITDA (60,000) EBITDA EBIT EBIT 08 (90,000) Cummulative (60,000) Cummulative Retained Profit Retained Profit Figure 8: Breakeven and profitability timelines based on different subcriber acquisition plans APPLICATION NOTE
  11. 11. Model #2 – Financial Analysis based on ARPU Profitability Timelines ARPU Rate (USD) EBITDA+ EBIT+ Cummulative NP+ $19 - $ 20 (composite) March 2010 October 2010 July 2013 $21 - $ 22 (+10%) January 2010 June 2010 December 2012 $22 - $ 24 (+10%) January 2010 June 2010 June 2012 Conclusion: ARPU has a key effect on the profitability, where every 10% increase in ARPU will effect the profitability timeline by 0.5 years. Meanwhile, if the composite ARPU is increased by 50% to a rate of $28 - $30, net profit can be realized in 3 years (instead of 5 years) ARPU Rate at $21 - $ 22 (+10% of composite) ARPU Rate at $22 - $ 24 (+20% of composite) Unit: KUSD Unit: KUSD 90,000 90,000 60,000 60,000 30,000 30,000 0 0 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 (30,000) (30,000) EBITDA (60,000) (60,000) EBITDA EBIT Cummulative EBIT (90,000) Retained Profit (60,000) Cummulative Retained Profit Figure 9: Breakeven and profitability timelines by increasing ARPU rates by 10% or 20% 09 APPLICATION NOTE
  12. 12. Model #3 – Financial Analysis based on Modem Subsidy Profitability Timelines Subsidy Rate EBITDA+ EBIT+ Cummulative NP+ CAPEX + 100% Modem Subsidy March 2010 October 2010 July 2013 CAPEX + 50% Modem Subsidy June 2009 January 2010 January 2012 Conclusion: Modem subsidy has great impact on the overal financial results over the long run. If the Operator subsidizes 50% of the modem, the overall OPEX can be reduced by more than 15% every year and profitability can be brought forward by 1.5 years. 100% Modem Subsidy 50% Modem Subsidy Unit: KUSD Unit: KUSD 90,000 90,000 60,000 60,000 30,000 30,000 0 0 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 (30,000) (30,000) (60,000) EBITDA (60,000) EBITDA EBIT EBIT (90,000) Cummulative (60,000) Cummulative Retained Profit Retained Profit Figure 10: Breakeven and profitability timelines based on 100% and 50% modem subsidy models These business models illustrate how earnings and profit can be significantly boosted through a proper business model, which involves manipulating the projected subscriber numbers, ARPU rate or modem subsidy. Realistically, a WiMAX Operator may not have full control over its subcriber acquisition efforts and market forces can impact the projected number. On the other hand, affordability is a determining factor in increasing ARPU rates. Users are very price sensitive – a pricing package that is outside their affordability league can jeopardize the Operator’s subscriber acquisition efforts and in worst cases, result in high customer churn. Hence, the more feasible option is the modem subsidy model which is also an attractive marketing strategy. By promoting a package with price cuts, users would be instantly attracted to the discount and sign up. However, in order to not hurt capital reserves of the Operator, it is important that the Operator acquires economically priced modems. Does an economic modem fall short in terms of performance and usability? Not necessarily. 10 APPLICATION NOTE
  13. 13. A Cost-Effective Solution for Superior Performance At Greenpacket, we believe that an economic modem does not need to compromise on performance and usability. It involves prudency and constructing modems that truly fit a user’s usage profile. Greenpacket’s EX WiMAX Indoor VoIP Modem provides a cost-effective solution to deliver wireless broadband to residential users which accounts for 68% of WiMAX subscribers (4GCounts). It is engineered to fulfill the fundamental broadband need of home users by offering one data (LAN) and one voice (VoIP) port. The rational behind this design is that users do not need to pay for what they do not use, in this case additional data and voice ports. However, they are still empowered with a choice of connecting a router to the modem if the need more data ports or a WiFi connection. A cost-effective range gives Operators the opportunity to lower their subscriber acquisition cost and expand service offerings for diverse market segments. EX also allows Operators to formulate price sensitive packages or create a variety of packages that appeal to different connectivity needs of their subscribers. Usage Scenario EX boasts of the following features that offers superior performance. Connect EX to a WiFi router nt tu de ng o rs hari ser dS al u an ti adb d en Bro esi ers / g le r s sin le U A ltip Mu Figure 10: How Greenpacket’s EX Indoor VoIP Modem is put to use 11 APPLICATION NOTE
  14. 14. No Compromise on Performance EX boasts of the following features that offers superior performance. Improved Indoor Performance High gain antenna. EX is built-in with a 5dBi high gain antenna which increases the strength of received WiMAX signals and improves indoor coverage. Omni antenna. The multi-directional omni antenna radiates and receives WiMAX signals from any direction for great flexibility in modem placement and all-direction performance. Boosts Signal Strength Switched Transmit Diversity Technology. EX is equipped with the next-generation antenna technology, Switched Transmit Diversity Technology which has the ability to select the best antenna during transmission to boost signal strength for better uplink performance. External antenna. For added placement flexibility, EX can be affixed with an external antenna to improve reception and placed deeper indoors (as opposed to near the window). High Receive Sensitivity. EX has a high level of receiver sensitivity that surpasses WiMAX Forum’s specified standard by 7.5dBm. Maximize ROI 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 EX is constructed with high quality power amplifiers that achieve up to 27dBm transmission power. This extends the base station’s cell coverage, thus requiring lesser infrastructure and maximizing ROI. 12 APPLICATION NOTE
  15. 15. Expedite Your Profitability Now! Profitablilty is the very core of any business. For WiMAX Operators, a profitable business model has to be crafted from the start to ensure a sustainable business. At Greenpacket, we understand the demands placed on Operators. As such, we specialize in giving y ou the capacity to constantly deliver cutting-edge services without exhausting your capital and operating expenditures. With Greenpacket, limitless freedom begins now! Free Consultation! If you would like a free consultation on how you can expedite your profitability, please contact us at marketing.gp@greenpacket.com (kindly quote the reference code, AP0510 when you contact us). 13 APPLICATION NOTE
  16. 16. References 1. The WiMAX Business Model and how is it doing now, Neil Shah, WiMAX360° (http://www.wimax360.com) 2. The Business of WiMAX: Impact of Technology, Architecture & Spectrum on the WiMAX Business Case, Motorola 3. Understanding the Total Cost of Ownership of Wireless Backhaul: Making the Right Choice at the Right Time, DragonWave 4. WiMAXTM Applications for Utilities, WiMAX Forum & Senza Fili Consulting 5. Investing in 4G Networks for Developing Countries, 4G Trends (www.4gtrends.com) 6. AT&T’s iPhone Subsidy Deal (www.appadvice.com) 7. WiMAX Bridging The Broadband Digital Divide, http://www.americol.com 14 APPLICATION NOTE
  17. 17. About Green Packet Greenpacket is the international arm of the Green Packet Berhad group of companies which is listed on the Main Board of the Malaysian Bourse. Founded in San Francisco’s Silicon Valley in 2000 and now headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Greenpacket has a presence in 9 countries and is continuously expanding to be near its customers and in readiness for new markets. We are a leading developer of Next Generation Mobile Broadband and Networking Solutions for Telecommunications Operators across the globe. Our mission is to provide seamless and unified platforms for the delivery of user-centric multimedia communications services regardless of the nature and availability of backbone infrastructures. At Greenpacket, we pride ourselves on being constantly at the forefront of technology. Our leading carrier-grade solutions and award-winning consumer devices help Telecommunications Operators open new avenues, meet new demands, and enrich the lifestyles of their subscribers, while forging new relationships. We see a future of limitless freedom in wireless communications and continuously commit to meeting the needs of our customers with leading edge solutions. With product development centers in USA, Shanghai, and Taiwan, we are on the cutting edge of new developments in 4G (particularly WiMAX and LTE), as well as in software advancement. Our leadership position in the Telco industry is further enhanced by our strategic alliances with leading industry players. Additionally, our award-winning WiMAX modems have successfully completed interoperability tests with major WiMAX players and are being used by the world’s largest WiMAX Operators. We are also the leading carrier solutions provider in APAC catering to both 4G and 3G networks and aim to be No. 1 globally by the end of 2010. For more information, visit: www.greenpacket.com. San Francisco · Kuala Lumpur · Singapore · Shanghai · Taiwan · Sydney · Bahrain · Bangkok · Hong Kong Associate Member Copyright © 2001-2010 Green Packet Berhad. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, transmitted, transcribed, stored in a retrieval system, or translated into any language, in any form by any means, without the written permission of Green Packet Berhad. Green Packet Berhad reserves the right to modify or discontinue any product or piece of literature at anytime without prior notice.

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