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Nathan Wood, PhD
Nina Abdollahian
Jamie Jones
Western Geographic Science CenterU.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geolog...
Overview
• Hazards Vulnerability Team,
USGS Western Geographic
Science Center
• Exposure analysis request
by the National ...
Photograph: Holly Frank
Source: IPCC AR5, 2013, Fig. 13.27
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/201
3/11/sea-level-rise-what-the-experts-...
Salisbury
Newburyport
Newbury
Essex
Ipswich
Rowley
• Storm inundation modeling
– Woods Hole Group
• Time horizons
– 2013 (~today)
– 2030
– 2070
• Inundation extent
– Probabi...
Hazard zones - Salisbury
2013 (current) 2030
2070
Hazard zones - Newburyport
2013 (current)
2030
2070
Hazard zones - Newbury
2013 (current)
2030
2070
Hazard zones - Rowley
2013 (current)
2030
2070
Hazard zones - Ipswich
2013 (current)
2030
2070
Hazard zones - Essex
2013 (current) 2030 2070
Development
2006 National Land Cover Database
Amount of
developed land in
hazard zones
Natural Areas
• Conservation lands
• Land with Endangered Species
• Priority habitats
• Areas of critical environmental co...
Land use
Residents
Residents
• 2013 Census block level data
• Address points – parcels and businesses
Number of
residents in
hazard...
Demographics of Residents
High – greater than 10% of in-hazard pop.
• Renter-occupied households (9% Rowley, < 5% Essex)
•...
Businesses in hazard zones
Photograph: Joe Teixeira via National Wildlife Federation
Economic assets
Data from 2012 Infogroup Employer Database
Number of
employees in
hazard zones
Economic assets Amount of parcel
value ($, millions)
in hazard zones
Photograph: Ipswich River Watershed Association
Economic assets Amount of building
replacement value ($,
millions) in hazard zones
Photograph: National Wildlife Federation
Critical facilities and infrastructure
in hazard zones
Photograph: Joe Teixeira via National Wildlife Federation
Areas of concern - Salisbury
Depth data at 1% probability for by 2070
Areas of concern - Newburyport
Depth data at 1% probability by 2070
Areas of concern - Newbury
Depth data at 1% probability by 2070
Areas of concern - Rowley
Depth data at 1% probability by 2070
Areas of concern - Ipswich
Depth data at 1% probability by 2070
Areas of concern - Essex
Depth data at 1% probability by 2070
For more information
• Report (free for download)
• USGS Open-File Report 2016-1187
• https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication...
GM Symposium 2016: Nate Wood, Research Geographer, USGS
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GM Symposium 2016: Nate Wood, Research Geographer, USGS

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Nate Wood, Research Geographer, USGS (Portland, OR) . Great Marsh Symposium, Nov 17th, 2016

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GM Symposium 2016: Nate Wood, Research Geographer, USGS

  1. 1. Nathan Wood, PhD Nina Abdollahian Jamie Jones Western Geographic Science CenterU.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Community Exposure to Potential Climate-Driven Changes to Coastal-Inundation Hazards for Six Communities in Essex County, Massachusetts Photograph: Joe Teixeira via National Wildlife Federation
  2. 2. Overview • Hazards Vulnerability Team, USGS Western Geographic Science Center • Exposure analysis request by the National Wildlife Federation, in connection with the U.S. Department of Interior NE Climate Science Center • Report available for free at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/ publication/ofr20161187
  3. 3. Photograph: Holly Frank
  4. 4. Source: IPCC AR5, 2013, Fig. 13.27 http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/201 3/11/sea-level-rise-what-the-experts-expect/ http://www.cityofboston.gov/climate/sealevelriseboston.asp Source: NOAA Sea level rise – historic and predictions Global Boston Harbor
  5. 5. Salisbury Newburyport Newbury Essex Ipswich Rowley
  6. 6. • Storm inundation modeling – Woods Hole Group • Time horizons – 2013 (~today) – 2030 – 2070 • Inundation extent – Probability – Range of 0.1% to 100% – High, medium, low, very low • Depth – 0.5 feet increments – 1% (~100-yr water level) – 0.2% (~ 500-yr level) Hazard zones
  7. 7. Hazard zones - Salisbury 2013 (current) 2030 2070
  8. 8. Hazard zones - Newburyport 2013 (current) 2030 2070
  9. 9. Hazard zones - Newbury 2013 (current) 2030 2070
  10. 10. Hazard zones - Rowley 2013 (current) 2030 2070
  11. 11. Hazard zones - Ipswich 2013 (current) 2030 2070
  12. 12. Hazard zones - Essex 2013 (current) 2030 2070
  13. 13. Development 2006 National Land Cover Database Amount of developed land in hazard zones
  14. 14. Natural Areas • Conservation lands • Land with Endangered Species • Priority habitats • Areas of critical environmental concern • Community Preservation Act locations • Various state data sources (MassGIS) Parker River NWR, MA
  15. 15. Land use
  16. 16. Residents Residents • 2013 Census block level data • Address points – parcels and businesses Number of residents in hazard zones
  17. 17. Demographics of Residents High – greater than 10% of in-hazard pop. • Renter-occupied households (9% Rowley, < 5% Essex) • Over 65 years in age • Disabled population (< 5% in Essex) • Only high school degrees Moderate - 5-9% of in-hazard pop. • Poverty status established (15% in Rowley, < 5% in Salisbury and Essex) Minor - Less than 5% of in-hazard population • Unemployed (6% in Newbury) • Living in mobile homes • Living in group quarters (11% in Rowley) • No phone household • English as a second language • Under 5 years in age • Residents with no vehicle
  18. 18. Businesses in hazard zones Photograph: Joe Teixeira via National Wildlife Federation
  19. 19. Economic assets Data from 2012 Infogroup Employer Database Number of employees in hazard zones
  20. 20. Economic assets Amount of parcel value ($, millions) in hazard zones Photograph: Ipswich River Watershed Association
  21. 21. Economic assets Amount of building replacement value ($, millions) in hazard zones Photograph: National Wildlife Federation
  22. 22. Critical facilities and infrastructure in hazard zones Photograph: Joe Teixeira via National Wildlife Federation
  23. 23. Areas of concern - Salisbury Depth data at 1% probability for by 2070
  24. 24. Areas of concern - Newburyport Depth data at 1% probability by 2070
  25. 25. Areas of concern - Newbury Depth data at 1% probability by 2070
  26. 26. Areas of concern - Rowley Depth data at 1% probability by 2070
  27. 27. Areas of concern - Ipswich Depth data at 1% probability by 2070
  28. 28. Areas of concern - Essex Depth data at 1% probability by 2070
  29. 29. For more information • Report (free for download) • USGS Open-File Report 2016-1187 • https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20161187 • Contact me - Nathan Wood, nwood@usgs.gov • USGS vulnerability research - http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/science/vulnerability Thank You Photograph: National Wildlife Federation

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