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Ohio demographic trends and their impact on cities


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presentation to the Ohio Municipal League on Ohio's demographic trends and their implications for cities.

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Ohio demographic trends and their impact on cities

  1. 1. Alison D. Goebel, PhD Associate Director Greater Ohio Policy Center October 29, 2015
  2. 2. ABOUT GREATER OHIO POLICY CENTER An outcome-oriented statewide non-profit that champions revitalization and sustainable redevelopment in Ohio: • Revitalize Ohio’s urban cores and metropolitan regions • Achieve sustainable land reuse and economic growth
  3. 3. ABOUT GREATER OHIO POLICY CENTER: SUBJECT AREA EXPERTISE Urban regeneration Sustainably revitalize urban cores and neighborhoods Transportation & infrastructure modernization Develop improved & modern infrastructure Regional growth Promote regional economic development & collaborative governance structures
  4. 4. ABOUT GREATER OHIO POLICY CENTER: HOW WE DO OUR WORK • Develop and publish research • Use research to advocate for practical policy solutions at the state level • Assist communities through strategic assistance and dissemination of best practices • Build collaborative partnerships to extend our reach and ability to impact change
  5. 5. The Challenges Facing Ohio’s Communities
  6. 6. OHIO’S POPULATION GROWTH HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE 1970S Exhibit 1-1. Total Population, 1910-2014 14,000,000 12,000,000 11,594,163 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and 2014 State Total Population Estimates
  7. 7. OHIO’S PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH FOR NEXT 25 YEARS IS MINIMAL 2015-2040: Population growth Ohio: expected to grow 0.04% per year (net gain of ~85,000) • Ohio 2014 population: 11,594,163 • Projected 2040 pop: 11,678,970 United States: expected to grow 0.69% per year (net gain nearly 60 million) • US 2014 population: 318,857,056
  8. 8. OHIO IS AGING; OLDER COUNTIES ARE NOT EXPECTING YOUNGER COHORTS TO REPLACE AGING RESIDENTS 2015: population age 55+ Projected overall population growth 2015-2040
  10. 10. OHIO’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (2014): RURAL OHIO FACING GREATER CHALLENGES Statewide unemployment rate in 2014: 5.7%
  11. 11. LAND CONSUMPTION IN OHIO HAS OUTPACED POPULATION GROWTH • Ohio is 8th in land conversion but only 45th in population growth, nationally • Ohio’s rate of development of acres outpaced its population growth by almost 6 times in last thirty years
  12. 12. COUNTY POPULATION CHANGE OUTSIDE CENTRAL CITY, 1950-2010 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Summit Stark Hamilton Cuyahoga Franklin Montgomery Lucas Youngstown
  13. 13. POPULATION INCREASE IN EX-URBAN COUNTIES, BUT NOT UNIFORMLY ACROSS STATE Darker blue=most population growth Darkest red=greatest loss of population
  14. 14. AS POPULATIONS SHIFT AROUND THE METRO, HOUSING IS LEFT VACANT, RAISING LIKELIHOOD OF BLIGHT, MAKING IT THAT MUCH HARDER TO MAINTAIN AN ATTRACTIVE, COMPETITIVE COMMUNITY Note: Ottawa Co. in NW Ohio has high rates of vacancy due to the number vacation homes that are used only part of the year
  15. 15. CHALLENGES WITH POPULATION STAGNATION AND AGING COMMUNITIES 1. Physical decline—blighted houses, shuttered businesses, outdated commercial and industrial facilities 2. Rising Legacy Costs and Declining Tax Base • Ohio will need over $25 billion to maintain and upgrade aging water infrastructure over the next 20 years. • Tax base shrinking with population loss. 3. Persistent Poverty and Inequity • Neighborhoods in decline are disproportionately affecting low income populations • Remaining economic/racial disparities that bring down the rest of the region
  16. 16. GOPC’S STATE POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Establish innovative financing programs that support infrastructure modernization and fund brownfield redevelopment 2. Align ODOT administrative regions with state business growth efforts to improve economic development strategies and transportation investment decisions 3. Develop programming that connects entrepreneurs with vacant commercial buildings 4. Create a loan program that links small business lending with neighborhood improvement efforts
  17. 17. The Opportunities Facing Ohio’s Communities
  19. 19. OHIO’S MILLENNIALS (AGES 25-34) The Millennials (those aged 25-34) are the largest age cohort, nationally. • In Ohio they made up 13% of 2013 state population, still smaller than 45-54 age cohort Under 5 years 6% 5 to 9 years 6% 10 to 14 years 7% 15 to 19 years 7% 20 to 24 years 7% 25 to 34 years 13% 35 to 44 years 12% 45 to 54 years 14% 55 to 59 years 7% 60 to 64 years 6% 65 to 74 years 8% 75 to 84 years 5% 85 years and over 2% Ohio 2013 pop distribution
  20. 20. OHIO’S MILLENNIALS (AGES 25-34) 91% of Ohio’s millennials with college degrees live in the state’s 8 largest metros
  21. 21. Ohio is a State of Regions. Local prosperity rides on regional fortunes.
  22. 22. OHIO’S METROS ARE THE ECONOMIC DRIVERS OF OUR STATE AND THE KEY ENGINES TO OUR ECONOMY ARE OUR URBAN CORES 1. Toledo 2. Sandusky 3. Cleveland Elyria Lorain 4. Akron 5. Warren Youngstown 6. Lima 7. Mansfield 8. Canton 9. Steubenville 10. Dayton Piqua 11. Springfield 12. Columbus Lancaster Newark 13. East Liverpool 14. Cincinnati Hamilton Middletown 15. Ironton 16. Marietta
  23. 23. THE VAST MAJORITY OF OHIOANS LIVE IN A METRO Almost every single Ohioan lives within an hour’s drive of an urbanized area. Clockwise: Piqua; Mansfield; Cincinna 81% of all Ohioans live in 1 of 16 metro regions Ohio’s 16 metro regions hold 84% of the state’s jobs Ohio’s 16 metro regions produce 87% of the state’s GDP Half of the state’s population lives within 10 miles of an urban core.
  24. 24. OHIO’S MAJOR URBAN COUNTIES CONTAIN THE JOBS THAT EMPLOY THE METRO REGION Green=“inflow of workers” (i.e. county receives workers commuting from another county) Blue=“outflow of workers” (i.e. residents leave county for their job)
  25. 25. WHY REGIONS MATTER FOR ECONOMIC REGROWTH • Municipalities, suburbs, and townships and their regions are economically interdependent • Regional development and regional attraction will be the only way to economically thrive, in the long term
  26. 26. Cleveland Akron Canton Youngstown Lorain Northeast OHIO: five legacy cities embedded in a single region of over 5,000 mi2 REGIONAL INITIATIVES: LONG TERM ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY Urban centers, suburbs, and rural townships are embedded in larger economic regions, which is how other areas of the country are succeeding
  28. 28. INTERGOVERNMENTAL COLLABORATION & COOPERATION IS CRITICAL Local Government Metropolitan Planning Organizations Education Service Centers County Engineers County Executive or County Commissioners Major cities
  29. 29. COLLABORATION, COOPERATION, AND SELECTIVE CONSOLIDATION LEADS TO: Economies of scale Improved local government accountability Equalization of service quantity and quality Coordinated economic competitiveness Ability to retain local community character and flavor
  30. 30. REGIONAL UPSHOT Looking beyond jurisdictional boundaries allows communities to maximize resources and identify new markets Multi-faceted public/private partnerships are capable of driving sustained regeneration, on a regional basis Effective ties between cities and their regions to foster stronger economic growth for both
  31. 31. Maintaining and creating attractive communities in which people
  32. 32. OPPORTUNITIES TO LEVERAGE AND ATTRACT RESIDENTS IN KEY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Nationally, the market is seeking walking able neighborhoods that are denser and are mixed-use. Millennials and Baby Boomers are returning to cities and older suburbs. Baby boomer, as they age, may have fewer options and lower desire to live in ex-urban areas as driving becomes untenable for some Immigrants are significant contributors to population growth and economic regeneration and are less interested in suburban-style communities
  33. 33. STRATEGIES THAT ARE MAKING AN IMPACT 1. Target resources in viable neighborhoods, especially neighborhoods facing economic challenges but that can “tip back” to health 2. Focus on rebuilding the downtown or core of community 3. Leverage economic assets to build competitive advantages 4. Repurpose vacant land and buildings for new uses
  34. 34. ASSETS TO LEVERAGE IN OLDER COMMUNITIES • Great “bones” – historic buildings, cultural assets, eds and meds, existing infrastructure • Lifestyle and affordability • Inherent walkability – “streetcar suburbs” and “main street” communities • Sense of community • Excess land ripe for redevelopment
  35. 35. THE MARKET WANTS WALKABLE NEIGHBORHOODS AND THEY ARE COST EFFECTIVE! Walkable neighborhoods with transportation options save money and resources Downtown Mansfield, Mansfield Ohio from
  36. 36. WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Sustainable Development: is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. In Ohio this means building urban, suburban and rural communities with housing and transportation choices near jobs, shops and schools. More compact development puts existing capacity to work, lowers infrastructure costs per capita, and helps ensure infrastructure is maintained before repairs get expensive.
  37. 37. SUSTAINABLE GROWTH IS COST EFFECTIVE In general, sustainable growth development costs one-third less for upfront infrastructure, such as: new construction of roads, sewers, and water lines. Source: “Building Better Budgets: A National Examination of the Fisca Benefits of Smart Growth Development,” Smart Growth America, May 2013
  38. 38. SUSTAINABLE GROWTH IS COST EFFECTIVE Sustainable growth development saves taxpayers an average of 10 percent on ongoing delivery of services, such as police, ambulance, and fire service costs, by reducing distances service vehicles must drive. Source: “Building Better Budgets: A National Examination of the Fiscal Benefits of Smart Growth Development,” Smart Growth America, May 2013
  39. 39. CRITICAL NEXT STRATEGIES: STRATEGIC INCREMENTALISM FOR OHIO’S COMMUNITIES • Requires a coherent vision of the future. Clear long-term goals grounded in small, but achievable steps • Be creative in identifying assets in your community and leverage them • Set clear long-term goals and identify small, achievable steps to get you there • Look beyond jurisdictional boundaries maximize resources and identify new markets
  40. 40. STATE POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS • Increase state funding and federal funds flexed for transit • Improve communities’ ability to revitalize vacant and abandoned buildings • Implement a statewide Safe Streets policy to ensure safety of all users and encourage economic development
  41. 41. GOPC RESEARCH TO BE RELEASED IN 2015 • Study of Opportunity neighborhoods in Ohio • Analysis of what gives some small and medium-sized cities their competitive edge
  42. 42. Alison D. Goebel, PhD Associate Director Greater Ohio Policy Center agoebel@greaterohio.or g @alisongoebelOH 614-224-0187