Bob Rosenbaum!                                                             Media Management/2012!                Why it ha...
Marshall	  McLuhan	                      1911-­‐1980	  /	  Philosopher	  &	  CommunicaDons	  Theorist	  •  Understanding	 ...
Marshall	  McLuhan	                    1911-­‐1980	  /	  Philosopher	  &	  CommunicaDons	  Theorist	  •  Understanding	  t...
McLuhan’s	  Tetrad	  Examines impact of new technologyon society by asking:• What does the medium enhance?• What does the ...
DOCUMENTING	  THE	  MELTDOWN	  ©2012	  Bob	  Rosenbaum 	     	     	     	     	     	     	     	     	  www.themarke6arm...
Newspaper	  meltdown	                                                                    U.S.	  newspaper	  revenue	  (mil...
Newspaper	  meltdown	                                                          U.S.	  newspaper	  revenue	  (millions)	   ...
Magazine	  meltdown	                                       Average	  adverDsing	  pages/magazine	  1200	  1000	           ...
Magazine	  meltdown	                                   Average	  adverDsing	  pages/magazine	  ©2012	  Bob	  Rosenbaum 	  ...
B2B	  meltdown	                               2009	  Trade	  Media	  Revenue	     15	     10	        5	        0	      -­‐...
WHY	  IT	  HAPPENED	  ©2012	  Bob	  Rosenbaum 	     	     	     	     	     	     	     	     	  www.themarke6arm.com	  
Internet	  =	  DisrupDon	                          Key	  events	  in	  prelude	  to	  the	  meltdown	  •  1989:	  America	...
AOL:	  So	  What?	  •     Was	  it	  the	  first	  online	  news	  source?	  •     Sped	  up	  news	  cycle	  •     Allowed...
Excite:	  So	  What?	  •  Defined	  how	  the	  Internet	  would	  be	  used	       –  Search	  =	  Research	       –  Sear...
Excite:	  So	  What?	  •  Old	  media	  consumpDon	  is	  reacDve	    	  	   	  whereas	  •  Online	  media	  consumpDon	 ...
eBay/Craig’s	  List:	  So	  What?	  •  Did	  to	  the	  “marketplace”	  funcDon	  of	  media	     what	  search	  engines	...
Blogs:	  So	  What?	  •     Everybody	  is	  a	  news	  outlet	  •     Barrier	  to	  entry	  is	  the	  lowest	  it’s	  e...
AdWords:	  So	  What?	  •  Allows	  adverDsers	  to	  pay	  for	  higher	  search	     engine	  exposure	  •  MarkeDng	  b...
McLuhan’s	  Tetrad	  Revisited	  Examines impact of new technologyon society by asking:• What does the medium enhance?• Wh...
McLuhan’s	  Tetrad	  Revisited	  How Internet media technologies haveimpacted society:•  Enhance: Speed, proactivity,     ...
McLuhan’s	  Tetrad	  Revisited	  How Internet media technologies haveimpacted society:•  What does the medium flip intowhe...
RevoluDon	  in	  markeDng	  MarkeDng	  before	  the	  Internet:	  •  We	  talk/you	  listen!	  MarkeDng	  with	  the	  Int...
RevoluDon	  in	  markeDng	  If	  we	  can	  find	  you…	  And	  get	  permission	  to	  engage	  you	  …	  Then	  why	  do	...
RevoluDon	  in	  markeDng	  If	  we	  can	  find	  you…	  And	  get	  permission	  to	  engage	  you	  …	  Then	  why	  do	...
RevoluDon	  in	  markeDng	                                                                             Screenshot	  of	  L...
Internet	  2.0	  =	  DisrupDon	  2.0	  •     2003:	  LinkedIn	  founded	  /	  profitable	  in	  2006	  •     2004:	  Facebo...
THE	  IMPACT	  ©2012	  Bob	  Rosenbaum 	     	     	     	     	     	     	     	     	  www.themarke6arm.com	  
Decline	  of	  journalism	  •  U.S.	  newspapers	  reduce	  investment	  in	     journalism	  by	  $1.6	  billion/year	  (...
Media	  shakeout	  Newspaper	  closures	  2007-­‐2010	                                                          Source: ht...
New	  business	  models	  •  TradiDonal	  media	  –	  moneDzed	  audience	       –  Generate	  content	       –  Amass	  a...
Examples	  of	  new	  business	  models	  •  Digital-­‐only	  startups	       –  Rupert	  Murdoch	  “ The	  Daily”	       ...
New	  business	  models	  •  Content	  aggregaDon	      –  Associated	  Content	  •  Audience	  management	      –  Press+...
WHAT’S	  NEXT	  ©2012	  Bob	  Rosenbaum 	     	     	     	     	     	     	     	     	  www.themarke6arm.com	  
What’s	  next	  •  DisrupDon	  as	  a	  way	  of	  life	  •  Print	  survives,	  along	  with	  everything	  else	     (TV...
THE	  MEDIUM	  IS	  [STILL]	  THE	  MESSAGE	  • There	  just	  happen	  to	  be	  more	  media	  than	  ever	  before.	  	...
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Why the media meltdown

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An economic understanding of what has happened to the media over the past 15 years for an understanding of what's next.

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Why the media meltdown

  1. 1. Bob Rosenbaum! Media Management/2012! Why it happened  What it means And what’s next©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  2. 2. Marshall  McLuhan   1911-­‐1980  /  Philosopher  &  CommunicaDons  Theorist  •  Understanding  the  Media;  1964   –  The  medium  is  the  message   –  Explains  why  stories  are  different  on  air,  in  print  and  online   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  3. 3. Marshall  McLuhan   1911-­‐1980  /  Philosopher  &  CommunicaDons  Theorist  •  Understanding  the  Media;  1964   –  The  medium  is  the  message   –  Explains  why  stories  are  different  on  air,  in  print  and   online   –  Hot  v.  Cool  media   •  Hot:  demands  acDve  parDcipaDon   –  Newspapers,  magazines   •  Cool:  Allows  passive  parDcipaDon   –  TV,  radio   •  Explains  why  meltdown  has  affected  print  differently  than   broadcast   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  4. 4. McLuhan’s  Tetrad  Examines impact of new technologyon society by asking:• What does the medium enhance?• What does the medium make obsolete?• What does the medium retrieve that had been obsolesced earlier?• What does the medium flip into when pushed to extremes? ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  5. 5. DOCUMENTING  THE  MELTDOWN  ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  6. 6. Newspaper  meltdown   U.S.  newspaper  revenue  (millions)  $60,000    $50,000    $40,000     Online  $30,000     Classified  $20,000     Print   Total  $10,000     $0     Source:  Newspaper  AssociaDon  of  America   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  7. 7. Newspaper  meltdown   U.S.  newspaper  revenue  (millions)   Source:  Newspaper  AssociaDon  of  America  ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  8. 8. Magazine  meltdown   Average  adverDsing  pages/magazine  1200  1000   2004   2005   800   2006   2007   600   2008   2009   400   2010   200   2011   0   Source:  Publishers  InformaDon  Bureau   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  9. 9. Magazine  meltdown   Average  adverDsing  pages/magazine  ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  10. 10. B2B  meltdown   2009  Trade  Media  Revenue   15   10   5   0   -­‐5   Revenue  (billions)   -­‐10   %  change   -­‐15   -­‐20   -­‐25   -­‐30   Source:  Publishers  InformaDon  Bureau  ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  11. 11. WHY  IT  HAPPENED  ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  12. 12. Internet  =  DisrupDon   Key  events  in  prelude  to  the  meltdown  •  1989:  America  Online  founded  •  1993:  Excite  becomes  first  “modern”  search   engine  •  1995:  eBay  founded  (as  AucDonWeb)  •  1996:  Craig’s  List  goes  online  •  1999:  ‘Blog’  is  coined  •  2000:  Google  launches  AdWords   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  13. 13. AOL:  So  What?  •  Was  it  the  first  online  news  source?  •  Sped  up  news  cycle  •  Allowed  tracking  of  reader  interest  •  Ushered  in  era  of  user-­‐driven  content   Nutshell:  Readers  want  it  faster  and   customized   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  14. 14. Excite:  So  What?  •  Defined  how  the  Internet  would  be  used   –  Search  =  Research   –  Search  =  ExploraDon   –  Search  =  DisintermediaDon     –  Search  =  Immediacy   –  Search  =  Portability   Nutshell:  Users  declare  independence  from   tradiDonal  informaDon  filters   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  15. 15. Excite:  So  What?  •  Old  media  consumpDon  is  reacDve        whereas  •  Online  media  consumpDon  is  proacDve  •  Internet  becomes  “honest”  medium  since   storytelling   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  16. 16. eBay/Craig’s  List:  So  What?  •  Did  to  the  “marketplace”  funcDon  of  media   what  search  engines  did  to  the  “informaDon”   funcDon   –  Shortened  vending  cycle   –  Reduced  cost   –  Removed  geographic  limitaDons   –  Increased  personalizaDon   Nutshell:  Buyers  and  sellers  alike  share  the  largest   marketplace  ever  assembled   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  17. 17. Blogs:  So  What?  •  Everybody  is  a  news  outlet  •  Barrier  to  entry  is  the  lowest  it’s  ever  been  •  Variety  of  offerings  is  the  widest  it’s  ever  been  •  New  corporate  media  emerge   –  Huffpost,  Daily  Beast,  Slate  Nutshell:  Media  must  struggle  harder  than  ever   to  maintain/engage  audience   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  18. 18. AdWords:  So  What?  •  Allows  adverDsers  to  pay  for  higher  search   engine  exposure  •  MarkeDng  becomes  directly  measurable  •  Reduces  cost  of  markeDng   –  Metric  changes  from  CPI  to  CPC  •  Arrives  during  a  recession  Nutshell:  Instant  examinaDon  of  tradiDonal   adverDsing   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  19. 19. McLuhan’s  Tetrad  Revisited  Examines impact of new technologyon society by asking:• What does the medium enhance?• What does the medium make obsolete?• What does the medium retrieve that had been obsolesced earlier?• What does the medium flip into when pushed to extremes? ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  20. 20. McLuhan’s  Tetrad  Revisited  How Internet media technologies haveimpacted society:•  Enhance: Speed, proactivity, customizability, freedom• Obsolete: Daily news cycle, browsing, print advertising, printed marketplaces• Retrieve: Participation• What does the medium flip into when pushed to extremes? _________ ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  21. 21. McLuhan’s  Tetrad  Revisited  How Internet media technologies haveimpacted society:•  What does the medium flip intowhen pushed to extremes?Facebook and other social media:Logical conclusion of media that isfast, user driven (proactivity andcustomizability) and allowsunprecedented participation andfreedom ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  22. 22. RevoluDon  in  markeDng  MarkeDng  before  the  Internet:  •  We  talk/you  listen!  MarkeDng  with  the  Internet:  •  Can  we  get  permission  to  engage  you?   –  E-­‐mail  lists   –  Blogs   –  Social  media   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  23. 23. RevoluDon  in  markeDng  If  we  can  find  you…  And  get  permission  to  engage  you  …  Then  why  do  we  need  the  media  at  all?   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  24. 24. RevoluDon  in  markeDng  If  we  can  find  you…  And  get  permission  to  engage  you  …  Then  why  do  we  need  the  media  at  all?  •  The  marketer  now  aggregates  its  own  audience   and  produces  its  own  content  with  parDcipaDon   from  the  outside;  the  marketer  IS  a  publisher   –  Permission  markeDng   –  Custom  publishing   –  Content  markeDng   –  Social  media  markeDng   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  25. 25. RevoluDon  in  markeDng   Screenshot  of  Lay’s  Facebook  page,  8/26,  2012  ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  26. 26. Internet  2.0  =  DisrupDon  2.0  •  2003:  LinkedIn  founded  /  profitable  in  2006  •  2004:  Facebook  launched  •  2006:  Twiner  launched  •  2009:  Quora  launched   –  2012:  Quora  declared  a  mortal  threat  to  Wikipedia   in  San  Francisco  Chronicle   The  marketer  as  publisher  fully  realized   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  27. 27. THE  IMPACT  ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  28. 28. Decline  of  journalism  •  U.S.  newspapers  reduce  investment  in   journalism  by  $1.6  billion/year  (Rick  Edmonds,   Poynter  InsDtute)   Newspaper  newsroom  employment   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   50,000   40,000   30,000   20,000   Source: Poynter, ASNE, Newspaperlayoffs.com ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  29. 29. Media  shakeout  Newspaper  closures  2007-­‐2010   Source: http://newspaperlayoffs.com/maps/closed/ ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  30. 30. New  business  models  •  TradiDonal  media  –  moneDzed  audience   –  Generate  content   –  Amass  an  audience   –  Lease  access  to  the  audience  •  New  models  –  moneDzed  content   –  Generate  content   –  Sell  content   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  31. 31. Examples  of  new  business  models  •  Digital-­‐only  startups   –  Rupert  Murdoch  “ The  Daily”   –  Fear.less  •  Group  sourcing   –  Wikileaks   –  Nowpublic.com  •  Hyperlocal  publishing   –  JournaDc   –  Heights  Observer   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  32. 32. New  business  models  •  Content  aggregaDon   –  Associated  Content  •  Audience  management   –  Press+  media  paywall  •  Content  outsourcing   –  MedCity  News   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  33. 33. WHAT’S  NEXT  ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  34. 34. What’s  next  •  DisrupDon  as  a  way  of  life  •  Print  survives,  along  with  everything  else   (TV  didn’t  kill  radio,  cable  didn’t  kill  TV)   –  Fewer  print  publicaDons  per  category  •  Consolidators  absorb  innovators  •  Digital  reading  devices  become  ubiquitous  •  InformaDon  providers  will  adopt  pracDces  that   make  these  devices  preferable   ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  
  35. 35. THE  MEDIUM  IS  [STILL]  THE  MESSAGE  • There  just  happen  to  be  more  media  than  ever  before.    • No  media  ever  go  away  completely   • “Obsolete”  media  just  adapt  and  develop   their  own  niche  markets  ©2012  Bob  Rosenbaum                  www.themarke6arm.com  

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