VISUALISING POLITICS      S ANAND      DATA SCIENTIST      GRAMENER.COM  S.Anand@Gramener.com   @sanand0
INDIA’S 543 CONSTITUENCIESThe country has beendivided into 543ParliamentaryConstituencies, each ofwhich returns one MP to ...
FOUR COLOUR THEOREM“Every map can be colouredwith just 4 colours, with no 2adjacent areas having thesame colour.”Proven by...
DELIMITED BY POPULATION          Electors   1000000 1500000The shape of eachconstituency aims to housethe same population....
POPULATION DENSITY             Pop Density   50   500If we treat the amount of“blueness” aspopulation, then the rightcolou...
RESERVATION OF SEATS           GEN   SC   STIn a number of seats in theLok Sabha, the candidatescan only be from either on...
NUMBER OF CANDIDATES           Contestants   2   20The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In ...
POLLING PERCENTAGE             Poll %   40%   90%The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In th...
… REDUCES WITH ELECTORSThe more electors there are                               Poll%in a constituency, the lower    100%...
… AND WITH POP. DENSITYThe denser the population in                                Poll%a constituency, the lower the    1...
CONTESTANTS INCREASEAs the number of electors in                                # contestantsa constituency increase, the ...
WINNING PARTIES                Party   BJP   BSP   CPM   INC   RJD   SPIn the 2004 election to LokSabha there were 1,351ca...
WINNING PARTIES                Party   BJP   BSP   CPM   INC   RJD   SPIn the 2004 election to LokSabha there were 1,351ca...
NUMBER OF CANDIDATES           Contestants   2   20The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In ...
NUMBER OF CANDIDATES           Contestants   2   20The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In ...
POLLING PERCENTAGE             Poll %   40%   90%The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In th...
POLLING PERCENTAGE             Poll %   40%   90%The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In th...
LOSING THE DEPOSIT              % Lost Deposit   50%   90%Every candidate has to makea deposit of Rs. 10,000/- forLok Sabh...
WINNER MARGIN                 % Margin   0   5%The percentage margin ofvictory is shown againsteach constituency.The perso...
WINNER MARGINThe percentage margin ofvictory is shown againsteach constituency.                              INC 145   12%...
INCREASES WITH CONTESTANTSAs the number of                              Winner margincontestants increase, the        70%p...
RUNNER UP MARGIN… however, the runner-up’s                             Runner-up marginmargin significantly drops      50%...
WOMEN CANDIDATES        # Women   0   1   5How many womencandidates stand forelections? And where?
WOMEN CANDIDATES              Women %   0   0.5   1There was only oneconstituency in the 2004general elections wherethere ...
NAME LENGTH                Name length   10   30Where do candidates havelong names?
PARLIAMENT DECISIONS (CABINET + CCEA* + CCI**)                                                UPAs best cabinet performanc...
PRE-2009                                                   2009 AND AFTERDecisions related tointervention, assistance and ...
There’s enough data out there.I’ll be sharing the Excel file that built thispresentation.Let’s get people to see politics.
Visualising politics
Visualising politics
Visualising politics
Visualising politics
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Visualising politics

  1. 1. VISUALISING POLITICS S ANAND DATA SCIENTIST GRAMENER.COM S.Anand@Gramener.com @sanand0
  2. 2. INDIA’S 543 CONSTITUENCIESThe country has beendivided into 543ParliamentaryConstituencies, each ofwhich returns one MP to theLok Sabha.
  3. 3. FOUR COLOUR THEOREM“Every map can be colouredwith just 4 colours, with no 2adjacent areas having thesame colour.”Proven by Appel & Haken in1979 – using a computer tosolve the problem.The Indian state map canalso be coloured with justfour colours.
  4. 4. DELIMITED BY POPULATION Electors 1000000 1500000The shape of eachconstituency aims to housethe same population.The last delimitation exercisewas in 1976. The nextone, based on the 2001census is under process.This has led to widediscrepancies in the size ofconstituencies, with thelargest having over 33 lakhelectors, and the smallestjust 39,000.Ideally, this map should havehad a uniform shade of blue.
  5. 5. POPULATION DENSITY Pop Density 50 500If we treat the amount of“blueness” aspopulation, then the rightcolouring scheme to use ispopulation density.This varies considerably too– from 1 person per sq km(Ladakh) to over 45,000people per sq km (CalcuttaNorth West and MumbaiSouth)
  6. 6. RESERVATION OF SEATS GEN SC STIn a number of seats in theLok Sabha, the candidatescan only be from either oneof the scheduled castes orscheduled tribes. Thenumber of these reservedseats is meant to beapproximately in proportionto the number of people fromscheduled castes orscheduled tribes in eachstate.There are currently 79 seatsreserved for the scheduledcastes and 41 reserved forthe scheduled tribes in theLok Sabha.
  7. 7. NUMBER OF CANDIDATES Contestants 2 20The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In thegeneral election of 1952 theaverage number ofcandidates in eachconstituency was 3.8; by1991 it had risen to16.3, and in 1996 stood at25.6.In August 1996, the size ofthe deposit and the numberof people required tonominate were increased.The 1998 Lok Sabhaelections, the number ofcandidates came down to anaverage of 8.74 perconstituency. In 1999 LokSabha elections, it was8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
  8. 8. POLLING PERCENTAGE Poll % 40% 90%The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In thegeneral election of 1952 theaverage number ofcandidates in eachconstituency was 3.8; by1991 it had risen to16.3, and in 1996 stood at25.6.In August 1996, the size ofthe deposit and the numberof people required tonominate were increased.The 1998 Lok Sabhaelections, the number ofcandidates came down to anaverage of 8.74 perconstituency. In 1999 LokSabha elections, it was8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
  9. 9. … REDUCES WITH ELECTORSThe more electors there are Poll%in a constituency, the lower 100%the polling percentage. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 Electors
  10. 10. … AND WITH POP. DENSITYThe denser the population in Poll%a constituency, the lower the 100%polling percentage. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Population density
  11. 11. CONTESTANTS INCREASEAs the number of electors in # contestantsa constituency increase, the 40number of contestantsincrease as well. 35(Remember: the number of 30seats per constituency is thesame – just one. So this is 25not a proportional effect.) 20 15 10 5 0 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 Electors
  12. 12. WINNING PARTIES Party BJP BSP CPM INC RJD SPIn the 2004 election to LokSabha there were 1,351candidates from 6 Nationalparties, 801 candidates from36 State parties, 898candidates from officiallyrecognised parties and 2385Independent candidates.The Congress (INC) won145 seats in the 2004elections. BJP won138, coming a close second.The constituencies whereeach party won is shownhere.
  13. 13. WINNING PARTIES Party BJP BSP CPM INC RJD SPIn the 2004 election to LokSabha there were 1,351candidates from 6 Nationalparties, 801 candidates from36 State parties, 898candidates from officiallyrecognised parties and 2385Independent candidates.The Congress (INC) won145 seats in the 2004elections. BJP won138, coming a close second.The constituencies whereeach party won is shownhere.
  14. 14. NUMBER OF CANDIDATES Contestants 2 20The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In thegeneral election of 1952 theaverage number ofcandidates in eachconstituency was 3.8; by1991 it had risen to16.3, and in 1996 stood at25.6.In August 1996, the size ofthe deposit and the numberof people required tonominate were increased.The 1998 Lok Sabhaelections, the number ofcandidates came down to anaverage of 8.74 perconstituency. In 1999 LokSabha elections, it was8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
  15. 15. NUMBER OF CANDIDATES Contestants 2 20The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In thegeneral election of 1952 theaverage number ofcandidates in eachconstituency was 3.8; by1991 it had risen to16.3, and in 1996 stood at25.6.In August 1996, the size ofthe deposit and the numberof people required tonominate were increased.The 1998 Lok Sabhaelections, the number ofcandidates came down to anaverage of 8.74 perconstituency. In 1999 LokSabha elections, it was8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
  16. 16. POLLING PERCENTAGE Poll % 40% 90%The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In thegeneral election of 1952 theaverage number ofcandidates in eachconstituency was 3.8; by1991 it had risen to16.3, and in 1996 stood at25.6.In August 1996, the size ofthe deposit and the numberof people required tonominate were increased.The 1998 Lok Sabhaelections, the number ofcandidates came down to anaverage of 8.74 perconstituency. In 1999 LokSabha elections, it was8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
  17. 17. POLLING PERCENTAGE Poll % 40% 90%The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In thegeneral election of 1952 theaverage number ofcandidates in eachconstituency was 3.8; by1991 it had risen to16.3, and in 1996 stood at25.6.In August 1996, the size ofthe deposit and the numberof people required tonominate were increased.The 1998 Lok Sabhaelections, the number ofcandidates came down to anaverage of 8.74 perconstituency. In 1999 LokSabha elections, it was8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
  18. 18. LOSING THE DEPOSIT % Lost Deposit 50% 90%Every candidate has to makea deposit of Rs. 10,000/- forLok Sabha elections. Thedeposit is returned if thecandidate receives morethan one-sixth of the totalnumber of valid votes polledin the constituency.
  19. 19. WINNER MARGIN % Margin 0 5%The percentage margin ofvictory is shown againsteach constituency.The person with the singlelargest number of votes isreturned to the parliament.
  20. 20. WINNER MARGINThe percentage margin ofvictory is shown againsteach constituency. INC 145 12%The person with the singlelargest number of votes is BJP 138 11%returned to the parliament. CPM 43 19% SP 36 10% RJD 24 11% BSP 19 5% DMK 16 23% SHS 12 8% BJD 11 10% CPI 10 15%
  21. 21. INCREASES WITH CONTESTANTSAs the number of Winner margincontestants increase, the 70%percentage margin by whichthe winner wins increases – 60%suggesting that candidatesdo not split up the winnersvotes much… 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 # contestants
  22. 22. RUNNER UP MARGIN… however, the runner-up’s Runner-up marginmargin significantly drops 50%with the number ofcandidates. 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 # contestants
  23. 23. WOMEN CANDIDATES # Women 0 1 5How many womencandidates stand forelections? And where?
  24. 24. WOMEN CANDIDATES Women % 0 0.5 1There was only oneconstituency in the 2004general elections wherethere were more womencandidates than men: atUdaipur.Incidentally, they were thewinner, runner up andsecond runner up.The men lost their deposit.
  25. 25. NAME LENGTH Name length 10 30Where do candidates havelong names?
  26. 26. PARLIAMENT DECISIONS (CABINET + CCEA* + CCI**) UPAs best cabinet performance was last Friday, with a record 23 decisions taken in a single day, including some long pending key reform measures. The only other such times were Feb 23, 2008 (28 decisions) & Dec 26, 2008 (23 decisions). Mon 63 5% Tue 56 4% Wed 105 8% Thu 854 65% Fri 223 17% Sat 6 0% Nearly two-thirds of decisions are taken on Thursday sessions, which is also visible on the calendar alongside.* CCEA: Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs** CCI: Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure
  27. 27. PRE-2009 2009 AND AFTERDecisions related tointervention, assistance and relief Decisions to increase the number ofwere almost entirely concentrated in lanes on highways grew significantlypre-2009 post-2009, especially as part of the CCI (Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure) decisions A significant rise in the number ofThe number of international decisions related to the States isagreements has declined seen post 2009 – in contrast withdramatically between pre-2009 and the focus on “Central” pre-2009post-2009
  28. 28. There’s enough data out there.I’ll be sharing the Excel file that built thispresentation.Let’s get people to see politics.

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