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Beyond the lower-bound: the fossil record can provide empirically-informed prior distributions on node ages in poorly-sampled groups

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Beyond the lower-bound: the fossil record can provide empirically-informed prior distributions on node ages in poorly-sampled groups

  1. 1. Beyond the lower-bound: the fossilrecord can provideempirically-informed priordistributions on node ages inpoorly-sampled groupsGraeme T. Lloyd, Matt Friedman andMark A. Bell
  2. 2. Credit/blameMatt Friedman Mark Bell
  3. 3. When?
  4. 4. When?
  5. 5. When?Olenekian247.2251.2
  6. 6. Prior distribution247.2
  7. 7. Prior distribution247.2?
  8. 8. Fossil dating approaches #1Nowak et al. 2013
  9. 9. Fossil dating approaches #2Bapst in pressTime
  10. 10. Required dataTreeTip agesSampling rateBranching rateExtinction rateExtant diversity
  11. 11. Required dataTreeTip agesSampling rateBranching rateExtinction rateExtant diversity
  12. 12. Fossil dating approaches #3τ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3Hedman 2010τ0
  13. 13. Fossil dating approaches #3τ0τ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3Hedman 2010Age (Ma)τ0
  14. 14. Problemτ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3τ0Hedman 2010
  15. 15. Solution #1τ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3τ0Hedman 2010
  16. 16. Solution #2τ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3τ0Hedman 2010
  17. 17. Solution #2τ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3τ0Hedman 2010=
  18. 18. Frequency of problemLloyd et al. 2008135/416 ‘unique’ nodes
  19. 19. Frequency of problem135/416 ‘unique’ nodesWhat about theother two thirds?Lloyd et al. 2008
  20. 20. Modified approach
  21. 21. Modified approach
  22. 22. Modified approach123
  23. 23. Modified approach123Min Max
  24. 24. Modified approach1 2 3123Min Max
  25. 25. Modified approach123
  26. 26. Data• Informal supertree• Molecular backbone• 29 source trees• 567 taxa (483 fossil)• c. 10 minutes
  27. 27. Dated tree
  28. 28. Testing t0
  29. 29. Testing t0
  30. 30. Cambrian vs. Jurassic t0: Median
  31. 31. Cambrian vs. Jurassic t0: Mean
  32. 32. Cambrian vs. Jurassic t0: L95%
  33. 33. Cambrian vs. Jurassic t0: U95%
  34. 34. Molecular divergences #1Meredith et al. 2011
  35. 35. Molecular divergences #2dos Reis et al. 2012
  36. 36. Molecular comparisonThis studyMeredithet al. 2011dos Reiset al. 2012This study -Meredithet al. 20111.07-1.17 -dos Reiset al. 20121.00-1.09 1.00-1.16 -
  37. 37. Molecular comparisonThisstudyMeredith et al. 2011 dos Reis et al. 2012
  38. 38. Conclusionsτ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3τ0
  39. 39. Conclusionsτ6τ5τ4τ2τ1τ3τ0
  40. 40. Conclusions

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